Freight rates for dry bulk carriers have continued to edge higher this week, with the industry’s main benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) gaining once again on Thursday, to reach 1942 points (up by 41 on a daily basis), or 2.16 percent. This was the 10th straight session of increases, despite the fact that most analysts appear rather pessimistic on the short-term prospects of the market. Another conclusion from yesterday’s market, was the continued rebounding trend of the capesize segment, with the respective Capesize Index gaining a further 85 points or 4.72 percent. As a result, average daily freight rates have edged higher than the $12,500 mark they had been in the past days, to $14,443.
This rebound has been triggered by a firmer iron ore demand and a restocking taking place in China, as a result of a better looking steel market. Shipbrokers estimate that currently low spot prices for iron ore, not to mention freight rates are causing more cargo purchases from steel mills, looking to take advantage of the situation. For the moment, nobody can rule out a double dip of the market, but it seems that for now, dry bulk ship owners are out in the clearing. Meanwhile, FBR Capital Markets said, in comments quoted by Reuters, that the fourth quarter of 2010 is likely to support a healthier iron ore trade, as contracts for the raw material are likely to more closely reflect spot prices in that period, rather than in the third quarter.

 


But, apart from cargo demand trade patterns and seasonality, the main concern of the market is the oversupply issues it faces, in terms of new tonnage delivered. According to ICAP Shipping, the dry bulk fleet expanded by some 340 ships amounting to 32 millon dwt in the first half of this year after allowing for the limited number of scrappings and other removals (some 46 ships of 1.6 million dwt). At the same time a large number of ships were contracted for future construction (346/31.2 million Dwt). This rapid expansion in the fleet - some 54 million dwt (+13%) over the past 12 months has been a primary factor in the decline in earnings since May this year which have slumped from typically $48,000 pd for a Cape to $16,000 now in July.
According to recent comments from Piraeus-based shipbroker Cotzias, “it seems that the overexcitement that led owners to order more dry cargo new buildings will only put more pressure on a market that had previously been alive but with what proved to be “mechanical and medical support”!!! The freight levels that were in excess of 30k per day, made everyone think that the newbuilding price for a Kamsarmax is value for money, and yes it could well be… but what will happen if the current dropping freight market continues at this pace for another 2 months? And 2 months with the excess volatility of the current markets seems like a long time, in which time, will the dry market face freight levels that will be adequate to cover the break even daily operating expenses including basic loan repayments? And what can be easily said to be the breakeven levels of these days, especially for ships that were acquired during 2008 and 2007? We are cautious to the extent that the headache of newbuilding orders has been cured by a regular daily feed of strong pain killers… One “blessing” was we believe the lesson we have all learnt from the container market that recently only started to push away from the “bottom” and the fact that over the past 1.5 years it has taught us that pricing at marginal cost is unsustainable, as vessels start getting laid up before long” concluded Cotzias.