Bunker Review on week 52, 2012
The Bunker Review is provided to Portnews by Marine Bunker Exchange.
This week was not so active for market events due to Christmas Holidays. Anyway market participants continue to watch the fiscal crisis in the U.S. - the most significant factor for the world oil market in the end of 2012. President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans have failed to agree on a budget that would prevent tax increases and spending cuts from automatically going into effect in January. Negotiations appear to have made little progress with just a handful of trading days remaining in the year. President Obama is expected to arrive in Washington early Thursday after a brief vacation in Hawaii. Congress is also expected to return to the U.S. capital Thursday and begin budget negotiations. Hopes that U.S. leaders might reach a budget deal helped buoy oil prices at the moment. Failure to agree on a plan before Jan. 1 would lead to spending cuts and tax hikes that economists predict will push the economy back into recession. Otherwise, the economy is expected to show slight improvement in 2013, a positive for energy consumption and prices.
Concerns about the United States going over the “fiscal cliff” and the euro area potentially slipping back into recession could have more consequences for crude oil demand for the first half of 2013. Slow economic growth and ample supplies may keep crude prices gradually slipping lower. There could be also a significant fall in oil prices in the event of a global financial shock such as the break-up of the euro.
Oil markets have been on edge through most of the year as tensions between Iran and the West escalated over Tehran's disputed nuclear programme. As per Iranian sources, Western sanctions on Iran's shipping and energy sectors caused serious problems for its oil industry earlier this year but Iran has mostly overcome those challenges.
Meanwhile Iran's oil exports have collapsed 50 percent from year-ago levels. Daily exports may slide to about 1 million barrels early next year, compared with 2.5 million at the start of this year. The U.S. will probably seek to bring Iran back to international talks in the first quarter of 2013, renewing focus on the issue and adding to the so-called oil-price risk premium.
However the probability of a price crash is still rather low: it will only be temporary, with OPEC likely to respond by tightening supplies. Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries estimate that prices will stabilize above $100 a barrel in 2013 and OPEC will hold an emergency meeting if they fall below that level.
The market sentiments depend on fiscal cliff solution this week. We expect bunker prices will go irregular.
|
Product |
380 cSt HSFO |
380 cSt LSFO |
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|
|
|
|
Rotterdam 2012-12-27 |
586 |
615 |
|
Rotterdam 2011-12-27 |
621 |
663 |
|
|
|
|
|
Gibraltar 2012-12-20 |
597 |
645 |
|
Gibraltar 2011-12-20 |
631 |
700 |
|
|
|
|
|
St Petersburg 2012-12-20 |
510 |
570 |
|
St Petersburg 2011-12-20 |
405 |
500 |
|
|
|
|
|
Panama Canal 2012-12-20 |
640 |
776 |
|
Panama Canal 2011-12-20 |
645 |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
Busan 2012-12-27 |
630 |
794 |
|
Busan 2011-12-27 |
720 |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
Fujairah 2011-12-20 |
603 |
- |
|
Fujairah 2012-12-20 |
664 |
- |
All prices stated in USD / Mton
All time high Brent= $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
All time high Light crude (WTI)= $147.27 (July 11, 2008)
|
Product |
Close Dec.26 |
|
Light Crude Oil (WTI) |
$90.98 |
|
Brent Crude Oil |
$111.07 |