• 2017 January 12 15:32

    Bunker prices may continue slight upward trend next week, expert says

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange
     
    World fuel indexes have started the year with a positive trend. However, prices declined sharply at the start of this week on fears of rising U.S. shale production and a reversal of speculative bets by hedge funds and other money managers, a sign that optimism in crude prices might be reaching its limits. There are two major potential drivers at the moment, each pushing in opposite directions on the market. The OPEC deal is going to take oil off the market, while U.S. drilling is expected to add new supply. Each of the trends may ultimately drive fuel prices one way or the other.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs)  demonstrated insignificant and irregular changes in the period of period of Jan.02 – Jan.12:

    380 HSFO - down from 322.36 to 317.71 USD/MT (-4,65)
    180 HSFO - down from 360.64 to 358.00 USD/MT (-2,64)
    MGO         - up from 529.36 to 530.57 USD/MT      (+1,21)


    OPEC’s crude production fell by 310,000 barrels a day in December, as unplanned disruptions in Nigeria reduced the group’s supply. Nigeria’s daily output dropped by 200,000 barrels to 1.45 million in December, ending three months of gains as the African nation struggled to restore capacity after a year of militant attacks on oil infrastructure.

    Overall, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries - excluding Indonesia which suspended its membership on Nov. 30 - pumped 33.1 million barrels a day in December. That compares with a November total of 33.41 million barrels a day for the 13 continuing members of the group, or 34.14 million including Indonesia’s daily output of 730,000 barrels.

    At the moment there are early signs that OPEC members are meeting their commitments. Saudi Arabia said last week that it is lowering its production in January by 486,000 barrels per day, a volume that it promised to cut as part of the November deal. That will take output down to 10.058 million barrels per day, a level that was required to meet as an average over the January to June time period. This step increases the chances that OPEC will stay true to its promises.

    Kuwait and Oman in their turn also give the first signs the curbs are being implemented. OPEC member Kuwait has reduced output by 130,000 barrels a day to about 2.75 million a day.  Oman is cutting 45,000 barrels a day from 1.01 million.

    Russia’s oil production has shrunk by around 130,000 barrels a day in the first week of January (initial goal was to cut at least 50,000 barrels a day this month).  Kazakhstan in turn cut production by 20,000 barrels a day in January. The combined 150,000 barrels a day cut represents 27 percent of the promised reduction by non-OPEC countries.

    There are, however, also signs that doubts about the compliance of OPEC and non-OPEC parties to the production cut agreement are growing. Unlike in the U.S., where output is pub-lished weekly, members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries can take much longer time to disclose their production. Besides, their data can be put into the question by independent surveys. So each new hint on the accord’s implementation may swing prices.

    The first indications are expected to come at the start of next month, when Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Platts publish surveys of production. A week or two later the estimates from the International Energy Agency and U.S. Energy Information Administration will be published. OPEC won’t publish production levels until the middle of next month. Monitoring the 11 non-members collaborating in the deal could be even harder, as data for the smaller producers like South Sudan and Equatorial Guinea could be rather fragmentary.

    Among other minor worrying signs: the U.S. announced on January 9 a notice of sale from its strategic petroleum reserve, with plans to sell 8 million barrels for delivery over the course of February, March and April. Meanwhile, Libya is seeing rapid gains in oil exports after the reopening of a key export terminal, with output rising to 700,000 bpd (it produced 580,000 in November). Nigeria – which, like Libya, is exempt from the OPEC deal – is intent on restoring production too. That could put additional pressure on prices.

    Besides, a report at the end of last week showed another solid build in the U.S. rig count by 4 to 529, the tenth consecutive week that the oil industry added active rigs. This is the highest level since the week ended Jan. 1, 2016. Companies have added more than 100 rigs since the end of September. As per some forecasts, the U.S. rig count to rise to 850-875 by the end of the year, with spending on exploration and production set to increase 27 percent in North America. It is unclear at the moment, how rising U.S. supply and falling OPEC output will ultimately balance out.

    All in all we expect slight upward trend will prevail in the dynamics of global bunker prices next week as news of the OPEC nations maintaining their quotas will provide a temporary support.

     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2017 March 24

14:42 FSUE Rosmorport Executive Director took part in the conference “Port Infrastructure of Russia”
14:20 Svitzer and Sanmar sign contract for a newbuild 80 tbp ASD escort tug
14:01 Icebreakers of FSUE Rosmorport have escorted 5,573 this season
13:37 BPO debate at the European Parliament focused on Baltic ports in the TEN-T network
13:15 MOL completes study project to equip in-service vessels with SOX scrubber systems
12:53 IMO participated in the 20th E-Navigation Committee meeting in France
12:35 ClassNK issues first EGCS ready notation
12:32 World Maritime University and UN Environment step up cooperation to achieve Sustainable Development Goals
12:01 CMA CGM to launch a unique offer between Asia and West Coast South America
12:00 Bunker market at Russian port of Novorossiysk sees mixed price movements (graph)
11:38 DNV GL welcomes B.A.P Carrasco to fleet
11:11 Spring floods on the Lower Volga forecasted to begin in April
10:49 Guam’s oil spill recovery capacity significantly improved
10:24 VNT organized a public discussion on the Vapour Recovery Unit project
09:58 Brent Crude futures price up 0.24% to $50.68, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.347% to $47.86
09:35 Bunker prices are flat at the port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
09:17 Baltic Dry Index up to 1,196 points

2017 March 23

18:16 NDQ sets up in Maritime Logistic Zone in Zeebrugge
18:06 COSCO (Dalian) Shipyard delivers a module carrier
17:55 Zelenodolsk Plant and Krylov Centre striving to expand cooperation
17:36 Rhenus takes a 40 percent shareholding in the ARKON Shipping Group
17:16 Nakilat transitions LNG Mesaimeer to in-house management
17:12 MABUX: The state of uncertainty on global fuel market
17:06 Port Bronka is officially announced as a deepwater port
16:52 Anglo-Eastern, Optimarin and Saga join forces for ground-breaking Manila-based BWT training facility
16:40 MacGregor and Rolls-Royce to explore implications of autonomy for container ships
16:10 Throughput of Chinese ports up 7.1% to 1.36 bln t in Jan-Feb'17
16:03 DHT Holdings announces acquisition of 11 VLCCs from BW Group
15:48 Port of Singapore throughput up 7% to 99.15 mln t in Jan-Feb'17
15:25 SENAN takes delivery of four Interceptor 1102 vessels from Damen
14:52 Corvettes of RF Navy's Baltic Fleet carried out artillery strike on ship detachment of conditional enemy
14:29 Rail Baltica progress discussed with the European Coordinator Ms. Trautmann
14:01 VSTEP and Damen sign cooperation agreement for Royal Bahamas Defence Force project
13:46 Murmansk Region Governor Marina Kovtun took part in “Fishery in the Arctic" conference
13:13 Project Deepening and Widening of Mumbai Harbour Channel and JN Port Channel (Phase-II) gets governmental approval
12:55 Heading towards the 2020 sulphur limit highlighted during maritime industry events in Denmark
12:34 Unique crane equipment delivered to Zvezda shipbuilding complex
12:12 Ulstein Verft is about to complete ship service on the sixth ship this year
11:51 Bunker prices are slightly up at the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
11:30 Two NYK vessels receive Panama Canal's Green Connection Award
11:17 First fish terminal created at the port of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky (photo)
11:01 APL extends cargo assurance for protection against cargo-in-transit risks
10:31 Ocean Yield ASA announces delivery of container vessel with 15 years charter
10:13 Brent Crude futures price up 0.75% to $51.02, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.79% to $48.42
10:10 THE Alliance starts new Mediterranean services
09:59 German Federal Office for Agriculture and Food awards Damen Fisheries Research Vessel contract
09:52 Baltic Dry Index up to 1,190 points
09:36 CITLE offers market entry to western China
09:19 Finnpilot Pilotage Ltd.’s result for 2016

2017 March 22

18:50 FAS Russia oblidges NCSP transfer revenue from its monopolistic activities into the federal budget
17:45 Ukraine’s water transport carried 1,000 passengers in Jan-Feb'17, down 32%, Y-o-Y
17:24 Caspian Flotilla ships are getting ready to participate in the Sea Cup 2017 international contest
17:06 Svitzer purchases newbuild 80 tbp ASD escort tug
16:51 ORBCOMM, Pole Star and Weatherdock launch Class B vessel tracking solution
16:30 USC of Russia and ZPMC (China) sign memorandum of cooperation (photo)
15:46 RF Transport Ministry sees prospects of creating dry bulk area of port Taman in 2020-2025
15:21 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from April 1st, 2017
15:00 Rosmorrechflot appoints Harbour Masters of Dikson and Dudinka ports
14:25 Handling and mooring tariff changed in the Kaliningrad Seaport
14:02 Navantia chooses MAN main and GenSet engines to power two fleet-support-tanker newbuildings