• 2017 January 12 15:32

    Bunker prices may continue slight upward trend next week, expert says

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange
     
    World fuel indexes have started the year with a positive trend. However, prices declined sharply at the start of this week on fears of rising U.S. shale production and a reversal of speculative bets by hedge funds and other money managers, a sign that optimism in crude prices might be reaching its limits. There are two major potential drivers at the moment, each pushing in opposite directions on the market. The OPEC deal is going to take oil off the market, while U.S. drilling is expected to add new supply. Each of the trends may ultimately drive fuel prices one way or the other.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs)  demonstrated insignificant and irregular changes in the period of period of Jan.02 – Jan.12:

    380 HSFO - down from 322.36 to 317.71 USD/MT (-4,65)
    180 HSFO - down from 360.64 to 358.00 USD/MT (-2,64)
    MGO         - up from 529.36 to 530.57 USD/MT      (+1,21)


    OPEC’s crude production fell by 310,000 barrels a day in December, as unplanned disruptions in Nigeria reduced the group’s supply. Nigeria’s daily output dropped by 200,000 barrels to 1.45 million in December, ending three months of gains as the African nation struggled to restore capacity after a year of militant attacks on oil infrastructure.

    Overall, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries - excluding Indonesia which suspended its membership on Nov. 30 - pumped 33.1 million barrels a day in December. That compares with a November total of 33.41 million barrels a day for the 13 continuing members of the group, or 34.14 million including Indonesia’s daily output of 730,000 barrels.

    At the moment there are early signs that OPEC members are meeting their commitments. Saudi Arabia said last week that it is lowering its production in January by 486,000 barrels per day, a volume that it promised to cut as part of the November deal. That will take output down to 10.058 million barrels per day, a level that was required to meet as an average over the January to June time period. This step increases the chances that OPEC will stay true to its promises.

    Kuwait and Oman in their turn also give the first signs the curbs are being implemented. OPEC member Kuwait has reduced output by 130,000 barrels a day to about 2.75 million a day.  Oman is cutting 45,000 barrels a day from 1.01 million.

    Russia’s oil production has shrunk by around 130,000 barrels a day in the first week of January (initial goal was to cut at least 50,000 barrels a day this month).  Kazakhstan in turn cut production by 20,000 barrels a day in January. The combined 150,000 barrels a day cut represents 27 percent of the promised reduction by non-OPEC countries.

    There are, however, also signs that doubts about the compliance of OPEC and non-OPEC parties to the production cut agreement are growing. Unlike in the U.S., where output is pub-lished weekly, members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries can take much longer time to disclose their production. Besides, their data can be put into the question by independent surveys. So each new hint on the accord’s implementation may swing prices.

    The first indications are expected to come at the start of next month, when Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Platts publish surveys of production. A week or two later the estimates from the International Energy Agency and U.S. Energy Information Administration will be published. OPEC won’t publish production levels until the middle of next month. Monitoring the 11 non-members collaborating in the deal could be even harder, as data for the smaller producers like South Sudan and Equatorial Guinea could be rather fragmentary.

    Among other minor worrying signs: the U.S. announced on January 9 a notice of sale from its strategic petroleum reserve, with plans to sell 8 million barrels for delivery over the course of February, March and April. Meanwhile, Libya is seeing rapid gains in oil exports after the reopening of a key export terminal, with output rising to 700,000 bpd (it produced 580,000 in November). Nigeria – which, like Libya, is exempt from the OPEC deal – is intent on restoring production too. That could put additional pressure on prices.

    Besides, a report at the end of last week showed another solid build in the U.S. rig count by 4 to 529, the tenth consecutive week that the oil industry added active rigs. This is the highest level since the week ended Jan. 1, 2016. Companies have added more than 100 rigs since the end of September. As per some forecasts, the U.S. rig count to rise to 850-875 by the end of the year, with spending on exploration and production set to increase 27 percent in North America. It is unclear at the moment, how rising U.S. supply and falling OPEC output will ultimately balance out.

    All in all we expect slight upward trend will prevail in the dynamics of global bunker prices next week as news of the OPEC nations maintaining their quotas will provide a temporary support.

     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2018 February 19

18:52 Russia’s Glavgosexpertiza gives nod to new phases of ZVEZDA Shipyard construction
18:05 Maersk Line increases FAK rates from Europe to West Coast South America, Caribbean and Middle America
17:05 Hapag-Lloyd introduces Asia – Middle East – New Asia Red Sea Service (AR1)
16:05 Maersk Line increases Reefer FAK rates from North Europe to Far East Asia
15:49 Iskes Towage & Salvage adds two more Damen ASD Tugs 2810 to its fleet
15:25 Maersk Line increases DRY rates from Russia to Far East Asia
15:02 The Russian Register of Seaports updates Port of Tuapse details
14:53 Nevsky Shipyard prepares the Akademik Pashin to test underway replenishment capabilities
14:26 Xeneta increases its data coverage by 161% in 2017
13:49 Rosmorport’s icebreakers assist shipping in the Gulf of Finland, escorted 17 vessels
13:12 GasLog reports financial results for 2017
12:01 GoodBulk announces delivery of Capesize vessel
11:46 Port of Mariupol freight volumes soar 32.3% to 455,860 tonnes
11:08 APL expands Eagle GO. Guaranteed service to 29 Asian port origins
10:48 NOVATEK inks cooperation MoU with Saudi Aramco
10:34 Crude oil futures price grows by 0.85% to $65,39 in London, in New York - by 1.25% to $62,45
09:08 Baltic Dry Index edges down 0.46% to 1084 points

2018 February 18

09:24 Hapag-Lloyd increases rates from Finland, Russia, Baltic States, Sweden, UK to East Asia (incl. Japan)
09:21 Preparing to define the Baltic Sea’s significant marine areas
09:19 Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi inaugurates the Fourth Container Terminal of JNPT in Mumbai
09:14 Holland America Line to launch New EXC In-Depth Voyages

2018 February 16

18:06 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from the Indian Subcontinent to North Europe and the Mediterranean
17:54 Future Outlook Forum will take place on 20 March as part of Intermodal Asia 2018
17:36 Global Container Terminals orders 10 more Konecranes RTGs for its terminals in British Columbia
17:09 University of Kent partnership helps the Port of Dover cut queues and boost efficiency
17:06 Port of Oakland reports 2.1 percent increase in export volume in January 2017
16:58 Container throughput of port Hong Kong (China) up 9.2% to 1.81 million TEUs in January 2018
16:35 Royal Vopak expands Vopak tank terminal (JTT) in the Port of Jakarta - Indonesia
16:05 DP World signs agreement with government of Jammu and Kashmir at World Government Summit
15:53 Murmansk Sea Fishing Port handled 11,600 t of fish in January 2018, up 26.1% Y-o-Y (photo)
15:26 Cargo traffic through NSR in 2017 grew by 36% Y-o-Y to 9.9 mln t
15:25 PPR 5 agrees on the outline of IMO draft guidelines for implementation of the 2020 sulphur limit
15:01 NOVATEK to invest USD 1.5 billion in construction of LNG terminal at Kamchatka
14:37 Rosmorport announces tender for maintenance dredging at Volga-Caspian Canal
14:14 22 icebreaker escort operations performed in eastern part of Gulf of Finland during 24 hours on February 15-16
13:49 TransContainer’s net income in 2017 more than doubled Y-o-Y to RUB 5.42 million
13:25 Nuclear power plant of Vaygach icebreaker breaks Arktika’s record
12:30 Rosmorport appoints Irina Egorova as Chief Accountant of its Vanino Branch (photo)
11:56 BSM and Babcock International Group collaborate on innovative LNG Supply Vessel
11:23 EBRD supports efficient grain logistics in Ukraine
11:00 WFS, Marinvest, IINO, Mitsui, NYK to build four new ocean-going vessels capable of running on methanol
10:28 Research vessel Admiral Vladimirsky leaves Mumbai port, India
10:00 Port of Rotterdam container throughput up 12.3% in 2017
10:00 Brent Crude futures price up 0.51% to $64.66, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.54% to $61.67
09:39 New DNV GL class notations aim to improve stern tube bearing performance
09:34 Bunker prices continue going down at the Port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
09:15 Baltic Dry Index down to 1,089 points

2018 February 15

18:27 Largest vessel to call at The Port of Philadelphia arrives from the West Coast of South America
18:06 Ampelmann gangway system installed succesfully on the Wagenborg Offshore's Walk to Work vessel
17:06 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from North Europe to China & Far East
16:57 Bunker market in anticipation of upward correction
16:38 Container throughput drives growth in Rotterdam
16:05 Caterpillar Marine announces upgrades to reman models in commercial and yachting applications
15:57 Kont to build 4 cruise terminals in the Leningrad Region
15:24 Number of maritime accidents in North Sea Canal Area down in 2017
15:04 LUKOIL's hydrocarbon production in 2017 up 2.4% Y-o-Y to 2.23 million boe per day
14:39 Peresvet and Oslyabya, ships of RF Navy’s Pacific Fleet, sail in training zone in Sea of Japan
14:16 UN Environment visits IMO
13:43 Jan De Nul to install wind turbine generators in Germany
13:12 Seaborne cargo throughput in Hamburg was stable Y-o-Y at 136.5 million tons