• 2017 January 12 15:32

    Bunker prices may continue slight upward trend next week, expert says

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange
     
    World fuel indexes have started the year with a positive trend. However, prices declined sharply at the start of this week on fears of rising U.S. shale production and a reversal of speculative bets by hedge funds and other money managers, a sign that optimism in crude prices might be reaching its limits. There are two major potential drivers at the moment, each pushing in opposite directions on the market. The OPEC deal is going to take oil off the market, while U.S. drilling is expected to add new supply. Each of the trends may ultimately drive fuel prices one way or the other.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs)  demonstrated insignificant and irregular changes in the period of period of Jan.02 – Jan.12:

    380 HSFO - down from 322.36 to 317.71 USD/MT (-4,65)
    180 HSFO - down from 360.64 to 358.00 USD/MT (-2,64)
    MGO         - up from 529.36 to 530.57 USD/MT      (+1,21)


    OPEC’s crude production fell by 310,000 barrels a day in December, as unplanned disruptions in Nigeria reduced the group’s supply. Nigeria’s daily output dropped by 200,000 barrels to 1.45 million in December, ending three months of gains as the African nation struggled to restore capacity after a year of militant attacks on oil infrastructure.

    Overall, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries - excluding Indonesia which suspended its membership on Nov. 30 - pumped 33.1 million barrels a day in December. That compares with a November total of 33.41 million barrels a day for the 13 continuing members of the group, or 34.14 million including Indonesia’s daily output of 730,000 barrels.

    At the moment there are early signs that OPEC members are meeting their commitments. Saudi Arabia said last week that it is lowering its production in January by 486,000 barrels per day, a volume that it promised to cut as part of the November deal. That will take output down to 10.058 million barrels per day, a level that was required to meet as an average over the January to June time period. This step increases the chances that OPEC will stay true to its promises.

    Kuwait and Oman in their turn also give the first signs the curbs are being implemented. OPEC member Kuwait has reduced output by 130,000 barrels a day to about 2.75 million a day.  Oman is cutting 45,000 barrels a day from 1.01 million.

    Russia’s oil production has shrunk by around 130,000 barrels a day in the first week of January (initial goal was to cut at least 50,000 barrels a day this month).  Kazakhstan in turn cut production by 20,000 barrels a day in January. The combined 150,000 barrels a day cut represents 27 percent of the promised reduction by non-OPEC countries.

    There are, however, also signs that doubts about the compliance of OPEC and non-OPEC parties to the production cut agreement are growing. Unlike in the U.S., where output is pub-lished weekly, members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries can take much longer time to disclose their production. Besides, their data can be put into the question by independent surveys. So each new hint on the accord’s implementation may swing prices.

    The first indications are expected to come at the start of next month, when Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Platts publish surveys of production. A week or two later the estimates from the International Energy Agency and U.S. Energy Information Administration will be published. OPEC won’t publish production levels until the middle of next month. Monitoring the 11 non-members collaborating in the deal could be even harder, as data for the smaller producers like South Sudan and Equatorial Guinea could be rather fragmentary.

    Among other minor worrying signs: the U.S. announced on January 9 a notice of sale from its strategic petroleum reserve, with plans to sell 8 million barrels for delivery over the course of February, March and April. Meanwhile, Libya is seeing rapid gains in oil exports after the reopening of a key export terminal, with output rising to 700,000 bpd (it produced 580,000 in November). Nigeria – which, like Libya, is exempt from the OPEC deal – is intent on restoring production too. That could put additional pressure on prices.

    Besides, a report at the end of last week showed another solid build in the U.S. rig count by 4 to 529, the tenth consecutive week that the oil industry added active rigs. This is the highest level since the week ended Jan. 1, 2016. Companies have added more than 100 rigs since the end of September. As per some forecasts, the U.S. rig count to rise to 850-875 by the end of the year, with spending on exploration and production set to increase 27 percent in North America. It is unclear at the moment, how rising U.S. supply and falling OPEC output will ultimately balance out.

    All in all we expect slight upward trend will prevail in the dynamics of global bunker prices next week as news of the OPEC nations maintaining their quotas will provide a temporary support.

     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2018 June 18

18:12 Azerbaijan Caspian Shipping Company takes part in TransCaspian/Translogistica 2018
17:57 Legislative amendment promotes automatisation tests in maritime transport with regard to manning and watchkeeping
17:35 First major forum on the new Silk Road organised by the Port of Marseille Fos
17:05 Aker Solutions teams up with SAP for next steps in digitalizing its business
16:45 HMM signs Letter of Intent for its mega containership orders
16:24 Victor Olersky handed in his resignation notice
16:18 European Council extends sanctions on Crimea and Sevastopol for another year
16:05 DryShips announces agreements to sell two older Panamaxes
15:40 Tuapse Commercial Seaport elected seven BoD members
15:33 Poland holds World Maritime Day Parallel Event
15:13 IMO member states must progress on key sulphur cap issues at critical meeting in July
14:59 Average wholesale prices for М-100 HFO down to RUB 17,923 in RF spot market
14:13 Navios Maritime Containers announces acquisition of five containerships and options to acquire four additional containerships
13:35 Maersk launches a new line to the Middle East from Fos
13:00 Aker Arctic demonstrates autonomous vessel in model tests
12:36 ABB to improve Edda Fides floating hotel safety with leading digital technology
11:47 Freeport of Riga Authority and Port of Rotterdam Authority sign cooperation agreement
11:24 Port of Tallinn signs MoU with the City of Tallinn for development of the Old City Harbour area
11:01 Dorian LPG Board declines BW LPG'S unsolicited proposal
10:25 Brent Crude futures price down 0.76% to $72.88, Light Sweet Crude – down 1.73% to $63.73
10:12 Capital Product Partners L.P. announces new period charters for four of its product tankers
10:03 Port of Silloth invests £250,000 in new solar farm on Marshall Dock
09:41 Fishers fatalities give impetus to fishing vessel safety work
09:18 Baltic Dry Index up to 1,445 points

2018 June 17

18:40 Port of Oakland's largest terminal operator OK new lease to 2027
18:38 GoodBulk Ltd. announces delivery of Capesize vessel
18:32 Navios Maritime Partners announces sale of containership and options to sell four additional containerships

2018 June 15

18:35 Hapag-Lloyd implements Peak Season Surcharge from Mediterranean to USA
18:05 Wallenius Wilhelmsen Ocean adds Adelaide on the Australia service
17:54 Throughput of port Kaliningrad in 5M’18 up 12% Y-o-Y to 6.05 million tonnes
17:35 GTT conducts two FEED studies on two types of Gravity Based System
17:20 Throughput of port Vyborg in 5M’18 up 22% Y-o-Y to 610,900 tonnes
17:05 Port of Koper officially part of the New Silk Road
16:40 Yantar Shipyard launches yet another trawler of Project SK-3101R
16:35 Port of Long Beach volume up to 687,427 TEU in May 2018
16:05 Royal IHC joins PortXL
15:45 Throughput of port Vysotsk in 5M’18 declined by 3% Y-o-Y to 7.49 million tonnes
15:22 Main phase of Nizhegorodsky hydrosystem project obtains state expert approval
15:21 VTG FastTrack makes ad hoc transportation from the Port of Hamburg possible
15:00 Vopak opens new rail infrastructure in the port of Antwerp
14:21 Royal IHC and IHC IQIP sign memorandum of agreement with SOIC
14:09 DNV GL issues first type approval for aluminium cables onboard ships
13:16 Throughput of port Primorsk in 5M’18 down 18% Y-o-Y to 22.63 million tonnes
12:48 Bunker prices are down at the Port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
12:27 Innovative solution for lowering of ship emissions tested in the port of Rotterdam
12:23 LUKOIL commissions third well at Filanovsky field second stage
11:59 Throughput of port Ust-Luga in 5M’18 down 1% to 41.48 million tonnes
11:31 Throughput of Big Port St. Petersburg up 16% to 24.73 million tonnes in 5M’18
11:02 Lloyd’s Register and TWI launch Fullagar Technologies
10:30 Kotug Smit Towage performs naming ceremony for Damen tugs Rotterdam & Beagle
10:24 Brent Crude futures price down 0.14% to $75.83, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.09% to $66.83
10:02 Seaports of Ukraine handled 54.3 million tonnes of cargo in 5M’18, down 2.1% Y-o-Y
09:40 Throughput of Russian seaports in 5M’18 grew by 2.7% Y-o-Y to 328.4 million tonnes (detalization)
09:19 Baltic Dry Index up to 1,433 points

2018 June 14

18:03 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from East Mediterranean ports to Gulf and Red Sea
17:47 Throughput of port Kavkaz in 5M’18 up 37% Y-o-Y to 15.34 million tonnes
17:33 APL unveils new China Southeast Asia Service 8
17:30 Specifications of products to be rated as manufactured in Russia will be updated
17:03 Pasha Hawaii receives new refrigerated containers as part of container replenishment program
16:48 State Duma approves federal law on setting rouble prices for services offered in Russian seaports (document)