• 2017 January 12 15:32

    Bunker prices may continue slight upward trend next week, expert says

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange
     
    World fuel indexes have started the year with a positive trend. However, prices declined sharply at the start of this week on fears of rising U.S. shale production and a reversal of speculative bets by hedge funds and other money managers, a sign that optimism in crude prices might be reaching its limits. There are two major potential drivers at the moment, each pushing in opposite directions on the market. The OPEC deal is going to take oil off the market, while U.S. drilling is expected to add new supply. Each of the trends may ultimately drive fuel prices one way or the other.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs)  demonstrated insignificant and irregular changes in the period of period of Jan.02 – Jan.12:

    380 HSFO - down from 322.36 to 317.71 USD/MT (-4,65)
    180 HSFO - down from 360.64 to 358.00 USD/MT (-2,64)
    MGO         - up from 529.36 to 530.57 USD/MT      (+1,21)


    OPEC’s crude production fell by 310,000 barrels a day in December, as unplanned disruptions in Nigeria reduced the group’s supply. Nigeria’s daily output dropped by 200,000 barrels to 1.45 million in December, ending three months of gains as the African nation struggled to restore capacity after a year of militant attacks on oil infrastructure.

    Overall, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries - excluding Indonesia which suspended its membership on Nov. 30 - pumped 33.1 million barrels a day in December. That compares with a November total of 33.41 million barrels a day for the 13 continuing members of the group, or 34.14 million including Indonesia’s daily output of 730,000 barrels.

    At the moment there are early signs that OPEC members are meeting their commitments. Saudi Arabia said last week that it is lowering its production in January by 486,000 barrels per day, a volume that it promised to cut as part of the November deal. That will take output down to 10.058 million barrels per day, a level that was required to meet as an average over the January to June time period. This step increases the chances that OPEC will stay true to its promises.

    Kuwait and Oman in their turn also give the first signs the curbs are being implemented. OPEC member Kuwait has reduced output by 130,000 barrels a day to about 2.75 million a day.  Oman is cutting 45,000 barrels a day from 1.01 million.

    Russia’s oil production has shrunk by around 130,000 barrels a day in the first week of January (initial goal was to cut at least 50,000 barrels a day this month).  Kazakhstan in turn cut production by 20,000 barrels a day in January. The combined 150,000 barrels a day cut represents 27 percent of the promised reduction by non-OPEC countries.

    There are, however, also signs that doubts about the compliance of OPEC and non-OPEC parties to the production cut agreement are growing. Unlike in the U.S., where output is pub-lished weekly, members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries can take much longer time to disclose their production. Besides, their data can be put into the question by independent surveys. So each new hint on the accord’s implementation may swing prices.

    The first indications are expected to come at the start of next month, when Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Platts publish surveys of production. A week or two later the estimates from the International Energy Agency and U.S. Energy Information Administration will be published. OPEC won’t publish production levels until the middle of next month. Monitoring the 11 non-members collaborating in the deal could be even harder, as data for the smaller producers like South Sudan and Equatorial Guinea could be rather fragmentary.

    Among other minor worrying signs: the U.S. announced on January 9 a notice of sale from its strategic petroleum reserve, with plans to sell 8 million barrels for delivery over the course of February, March and April. Meanwhile, Libya is seeing rapid gains in oil exports after the reopening of a key export terminal, with output rising to 700,000 bpd (it produced 580,000 in November). Nigeria – which, like Libya, is exempt from the OPEC deal – is intent on restoring production too. That could put additional pressure on prices.

    Besides, a report at the end of last week showed another solid build in the U.S. rig count by 4 to 529, the tenth consecutive week that the oil industry added active rigs. This is the highest level since the week ended Jan. 1, 2016. Companies have added more than 100 rigs since the end of September. As per some forecasts, the U.S. rig count to rise to 850-875 by the end of the year, with spending on exploration and production set to increase 27 percent in North America. It is unclear at the moment, how rising U.S. supply and falling OPEC output will ultimately balance out.

    All in all we expect slight upward trend will prevail in the dynamics of global bunker prices next week as news of the OPEC nations maintaining their quotas will provide a temporary support.

     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2017 August 22

11:59 Maritime security code under review
11:36 ABB’s Onboard DC Grid enables integration of energy storage on specialized hybrid wind farm vessel
11:24 Stealth Maritime Corp. comments on collision of Navy vessel and its Liberia flagged tanker
11:12 FESCO launches its first transit train between China and Europe via Mongolia
10:44 About RUB 14 bln spent for construction of Vykhodnoy-Lavna line under MTH project – Murmansk Region Governor (photo)
10:20 Brent Crude futures price up 0.58% to $51.97, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.59% to $47.81
09:57 Association of Commercial Sea Ports congratulates the management and the team of UCL Holding on the group’s 10th anniversary!
09:35 Coal exports via Rosterminalugol terminal hit 15 mln t milestone this year (photo)
09:14 Baltic Dry Index up to 1,099 points

2017 August 21

18:06 Bahri completes registration of ASLAF under Saudi national flag
17:51 BC Ferries releases first quarter results
17:28 Khersones sailing ship takes part in celebrations marking Yalta City Day
17:06 ClassNK paves the way for HKC verification expansion to South-East Asia
16:53 Passenger Port of St. Petersburg welcomed 15 cruise ships last week
16:32 CMA CGM announces GRI from Asia to Panama, the Caribbean and Cuba on PEX2 service
16:14 Damen launches free dredge calculator
15:46 Linter Shipping Agency congratulates UCL Holding with its 10th anniversary!
15:18 Vice-Admiral Kulakov, major ASW ship of RF Navy’s Northern Fleet made the first business call to Cyprus
14:57 Admiral Vladimirsky research vessel of RF Navy's Baltic Fleet crossed the English Channel
14:29 MNP Group congratulates the team of UCL Holding on the 10th anniversary!
14:00 Average wholesale prices for М-100 HFO up to RUB 11,601 in RF spot market
13:33 RF President gives instructions for allocation of RUB 100 bln in 2017 to modernize BAM and Transsib infrastructure
13:02 Qatar and RasGas complete the first co-loading of LNG for split delivery
12:51 Vostochny Port’s Phase 3 obtains 34 units of small-scale mechanization equipment for RUB 300 mln (photo)
12:46 Nakilat and Shell complete first phase of LNG carrier management transition programme
12:02 Marine Engineering Bureau congratulates its colleagues from Universal Cargo Logistics Holding on the 10th anniversary!
10:48 Total to acquire Maersk Oil for USD 7.45bn
10:40 Brent Crude futures price down 0.06% to $52.69, Light Sweet Crude – flat at $48.66
10:17 Weatherdock's easyONE gets TOP grade at YACHT magazine test reports
09:56 Bunkering tanker Aginskoye will operate at the ports of Varna and Bourgas (Bulgaria)
09:34 Russian Maritime Register of Shipping congratulates UCL Holding management and personnel on the anniversary
09:17 TEN charters two Suezmaxes
09:13 Baltic Dry Index up to 1,260 points

2017 August 18

18:21 TOTE plans to establish new U.S. mainland to Hawai’i shipping service
18:06 CMA CGM announces FAK Rates from Asia to Mediterranean
17:55 NCSP volumes for 7M 2017 totaled 85.2 mln tons
17:27 Alexander Masko re-elected as Director General of Murmansk Commercial Seaport (photo)
17:06 Austal and ASC Shipbuilding re-commit to sovereign national shipbuilding endeavour
16:42 Nuclear-powered icebreaker 50 Let Pobedy sets a record having reached the North Pole for 79 hours
16:18 IBIA supports continued efforts to protect MFM integrity and expanding application to terminal loadings
16:16 Fjord Line doubles the capacity on the fastest route between Norway and Denmark
15:45 Sea Port of Saint-Petersburg renews its equipment
15:19 Finnish Transport Agency reports increase of import/export volumes in international seaborne trade of HI’17
14:51 Indicative bunker prices go down at the port of Saint-Petersburg (graph)
14:26 Marine Rescue Service of Rosmorrechflot congratulates the team of UCL Holding on the group’s 10th anniversary!
14:04 Severodvinsk nuclear submarine of the Northern Fleet carried out missile firing
13:40 Arctic Economic Council took part in 2017 North Pacific Arctic Conference
13:02 CMA CGM announces GRI from Asia to Mexico, West Coast South America & West Coast Central America
12:37 Tuco Marine delivers hydrographic survey boat to Nelleman Survey
12:23 LNG Croatia announces investigation of the seabed at LNG terminal site
11:38 Nevsky Shipyard congratulates the team of UCL Holding with the group’s 10th anniversary!
11:09 Team Tankers International announces Q2 2017 results
10:45 FSBI Baltic Sea Ports Administration congratulates the team of UCL Holding on the group’s anniversary!
10:22 Brent Crude futures price down 0.12% to $50.97, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.13% to $47.03
10:00 Port of Cardiff invests over £4 million to support steel sector
09:37 Tehnoros congratulates the team of UCL Holding on the group’s anniversary!
09:14 Baltic Dry Index up to 1,247 points
07:48 Admiral Vidal Francisco Soberón Sanz takes part in a symbolic coin ceremony at Damen Schelde Naval Shipbuilding

2017 August 17

18:06 Carnival Paradise to offer five additional cruises to Havana, Cuba, from port of Tampa in 2018
17:50 10 cruise ships will call at the Port of Southampton this weekend