• 2017 January 12 15:32

    Bunker prices may continue slight upward trend next week, expert says

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange
     
    World fuel indexes have started the year with a positive trend. However, prices declined sharply at the start of this week on fears of rising U.S. shale production and a reversal of speculative bets by hedge funds and other money managers, a sign that optimism in crude prices might be reaching its limits. There are two major potential drivers at the moment, each pushing in opposite directions on the market. The OPEC deal is going to take oil off the market, while U.S. drilling is expected to add new supply. Each of the trends may ultimately drive fuel prices one way or the other.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs)  demonstrated insignificant and irregular changes in the period of period of Jan.02 – Jan.12:

    380 HSFO - down from 322.36 to 317.71 USD/MT (-4,65)
    180 HSFO - down from 360.64 to 358.00 USD/MT (-2,64)
    MGO         - up from 529.36 to 530.57 USD/MT      (+1,21)


    OPEC’s crude production fell by 310,000 barrels a day in December, as unplanned disruptions in Nigeria reduced the group’s supply. Nigeria’s daily output dropped by 200,000 barrels to 1.45 million in December, ending three months of gains as the African nation struggled to restore capacity after a year of militant attacks on oil infrastructure.

    Overall, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries - excluding Indonesia which suspended its membership on Nov. 30 - pumped 33.1 million barrels a day in December. That compares with a November total of 33.41 million barrels a day for the 13 continuing members of the group, or 34.14 million including Indonesia’s daily output of 730,000 barrels.

    At the moment there are early signs that OPEC members are meeting their commitments. Saudi Arabia said last week that it is lowering its production in January by 486,000 barrels per day, a volume that it promised to cut as part of the November deal. That will take output down to 10.058 million barrels per day, a level that was required to meet as an average over the January to June time period. This step increases the chances that OPEC will stay true to its promises.

    Kuwait and Oman in their turn also give the first signs the curbs are being implemented. OPEC member Kuwait has reduced output by 130,000 barrels a day to about 2.75 million a day.  Oman is cutting 45,000 barrels a day from 1.01 million.

    Russia’s oil production has shrunk by around 130,000 barrels a day in the first week of January (initial goal was to cut at least 50,000 barrels a day this month).  Kazakhstan in turn cut production by 20,000 barrels a day in January. The combined 150,000 barrels a day cut represents 27 percent of the promised reduction by non-OPEC countries.

    There are, however, also signs that doubts about the compliance of OPEC and non-OPEC parties to the production cut agreement are growing. Unlike in the U.S., where output is pub-lished weekly, members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries can take much longer time to disclose their production. Besides, their data can be put into the question by independent surveys. So each new hint on the accord’s implementation may swing prices.

    The first indications are expected to come at the start of next month, when Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Platts publish surveys of production. A week or two later the estimates from the International Energy Agency and U.S. Energy Information Administration will be published. OPEC won’t publish production levels until the middle of next month. Monitoring the 11 non-members collaborating in the deal could be even harder, as data for the smaller producers like South Sudan and Equatorial Guinea could be rather fragmentary.

    Among other minor worrying signs: the U.S. announced on January 9 a notice of sale from its strategic petroleum reserve, with plans to sell 8 million barrels for delivery over the course of February, March and April. Meanwhile, Libya is seeing rapid gains in oil exports after the reopening of a key export terminal, with output rising to 700,000 bpd (it produced 580,000 in November). Nigeria – which, like Libya, is exempt from the OPEC deal – is intent on restoring production too. That could put additional pressure on prices.

    Besides, a report at the end of last week showed another solid build in the U.S. rig count by 4 to 529, the tenth consecutive week that the oil industry added active rigs. This is the highest level since the week ended Jan. 1, 2016. Companies have added more than 100 rigs since the end of September. As per some forecasts, the U.S. rig count to rise to 850-875 by the end of the year, with spending on exploration and production set to increase 27 percent in North America. It is unclear at the moment, how rising U.S. supply and falling OPEC output will ultimately balance out.

    All in all we expect slight upward trend will prevail in the dynamics of global bunker prices next week as news of the OPEC nations maintaining their quotas will provide a temporary support.

     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2017 January 19

11:32 Odessa Sea Port Authority issues ice advisory
11:21 Bunker prices are still high in the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
10:59 Connecting ships, ports and people theme launched by IMO Secretary-General
10:43 Yury Tsvetkov congratulates Novoship on its 50th anniversary
10:15 Sergey Frank congratulates Novoship on its 50th anniversary
09:55 Brent Crude futures price up 0.93% to $54.42, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.92% to $51.55
09:16 Baltic Dry Index up to 952 points

2017 January 18

18:07 Siem Offshore cancels shipbuilding contract with Remontowa Shipbuilding
17:56 Port of Gdansk throughput up 3.8% to 37 mln t in 2016
17:40 COSCO (Dalian) Shipyard delivers Salvage Lifting Vessel and bulk carrier
17:19 RF Navy’s Pacific Ocean Fleet ship detachment arrived in Busan
17:06 Höegh LNG signs new FSRU contract with Hyundai Heavy Industries
16:45 Acting Chairman of USPA calls upon strengthening of dialogue between industry leaders and ports’ society
16:32 The Port of Gothenburg want to reward the shipping companies for their green initiatives
16:30 IMO welcomes entry into force of financial security for seafarers
16:18 Vladivostok Sea Fishing Port handled 327,000 t of fish in 2016, up 6.3%, Y-o-Y
15:54 The new head of USPA criticized the management of Odessa port
15:23 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from India Sub-Continent to North Europe & Mediterranean
15:01 Production at LUKOIL’s Filanovsky field reached one million tons (photo)
14:39 Container throughput of port Hong Kong (China) down 2.5% to 19.58 mln TEUs in 2016
14:23 SHI wins KRW 270bn order for build FSRU
13:46 Murmansk hosts exhibition dedicated to Arctic convoy
13:23 OPC, CHEC ink deal for Puerto Cortes terminal expansion
12:57 Seaport of Azov expanded with a plot of land intended for construction of terminal for grain and general cargo exports
12:26 Port of Zeebrugge volume down 1.3% to 38 million tonnes in 2016
12:08 Successful cooperation for safe sea transport of oil told in new exhibition
11:40 Composit supports 4th International Forum of Dredging Companies as its Sponsor
11:11 Free Port Kamchatka company to build multi-functional transit cargo hub in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky
10:33 Brent Crude futures price up 0.34% to $55.66, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.34% to $52.66
10:29 OSM & Forland Shipping extend cooperation to full technical management
10:14 Victor Olersky congratulates Novoship on its 50th anniversary
10:00 Rusal is set to invest over RUB 5 bln in construction of alumina terminal in Vanino Bay
09:54 Baltic Dry Index down to 922 points
09:38 TransContainer freight traffic rises 9% in 2016 to 1,500 TEUs
09:16 Indicative bunker prices slightly up at the port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
08:25 Port of Antwerp freight volume up 2.7% to 214,057,529 tonnes in 2016
07:27 Ports of Stockholm sets new container record in 2016

2017 January 17

21:13 Cargo volume of a UCL Holding's stevedoring division in 2016 up 3% to 34,1 million tonnes
18:44 DNV GL certifies new prototype of Siemens’ 8 MW offshore wind turbine
18:42 Port of Kiel posts record cargo and passenger handling, up 5.3% and 3.4%, accordingly
18:23 Berge Bulk takes delivery of handy-size vessel Berge Rishiri
18:20 CMA CGM upgrades its SEAS1 and SEAS2 services
18:12 Euroseas announces delivery of newbuilding Ultramax drybulk carrier
17:54 Subsea 7 announces offer for Seaway Heavy Lifting
17:24 Russian crude exports via oil terminal Kozmino in 2016 rose 4.6% to 31.8 million tonnes
17:06 Castor Networks launches new worldwide one stop shop formula for maritime IT and communication after takeover Watum Solutions
16:11 Vyborg Shipyard and Arkhangelsk Trawl Fleet ink an agreement for optional and modified ST series trawlers (photo)
16:02 Hapag-Lloyd announces new FAK rate from Far East WB - ISC to Europe North Continent & Med
15:28 Russia's Port of Nakhodka throughput in 2016 rose 9.4% to 23.3 million tonnes
15:14 Bunker prices at Far Eastern ports remain flat (graph)
14:24 Moldova-flagged dry bulk carrier refloated at Port of Azov
14:13 VARD signs Letter Of Intent with international cruise company
13:40 Cargo transportation by inland water ways of Russia down 2.9% to 117.9 mln t in 2016
13:02 CMA CGM announces GRI from Asia to Mexico, West Coast of South America (WCSA) & West Coast of Central America (WCCA)
12:21 Boskalis receives LOI for EUR 480 million port development project in Oman
12:12 TTS Group delivers TTS shipset to COSCO/Shanghai Shipyard
11:59 Peter Döhle turns to MacGregor for 70-ship service agreement deal
11:58 Throughput of port Olga (Primorsky Territory) up 13.4% to 1.529 mln t in 2016
11:01 Throughput of port Posiet (Primorsky Territory) up 26.6% to 8.202 mln t in 2016
10:40 Throughput of port Vostochny (Primorsky Territory) up 5.2% to 68.533 mln t in 2016