• 2017 January 12 15:32

    Bunker prices may continue slight upward trend next week, expert says

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange
     
    World fuel indexes have started the year with a positive trend. However, prices declined sharply at the start of this week on fears of rising U.S. shale production and a reversal of speculative bets by hedge funds and other money managers, a sign that optimism in crude prices might be reaching its limits. There are two major potential drivers at the moment, each pushing in opposite directions on the market. The OPEC deal is going to take oil off the market, while U.S. drilling is expected to add new supply. Each of the trends may ultimately drive fuel prices one way or the other.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs)  demonstrated insignificant and irregular changes in the period of period of Jan.02 – Jan.12:

    380 HSFO - down from 322.36 to 317.71 USD/MT (-4,65)
    180 HSFO - down from 360.64 to 358.00 USD/MT (-2,64)
    MGO         - up from 529.36 to 530.57 USD/MT      (+1,21)


    OPEC’s crude production fell by 310,000 barrels a day in December, as unplanned disruptions in Nigeria reduced the group’s supply. Nigeria’s daily output dropped by 200,000 barrels to 1.45 million in December, ending three months of gains as the African nation struggled to restore capacity after a year of militant attacks on oil infrastructure.

    Overall, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries - excluding Indonesia which suspended its membership on Nov. 30 - pumped 33.1 million barrels a day in December. That compares with a November total of 33.41 million barrels a day for the 13 continuing members of the group, or 34.14 million including Indonesia’s daily output of 730,000 barrels.

    At the moment there are early signs that OPEC members are meeting their commitments. Saudi Arabia said last week that it is lowering its production in January by 486,000 barrels per day, a volume that it promised to cut as part of the November deal. That will take output down to 10.058 million barrels per day, a level that was required to meet as an average over the January to June time period. This step increases the chances that OPEC will stay true to its promises.

    Kuwait and Oman in their turn also give the first signs the curbs are being implemented. OPEC member Kuwait has reduced output by 130,000 barrels a day to about 2.75 million a day.  Oman is cutting 45,000 barrels a day from 1.01 million.

    Russia’s oil production has shrunk by around 130,000 barrels a day in the first week of January (initial goal was to cut at least 50,000 barrels a day this month).  Kazakhstan in turn cut production by 20,000 barrels a day in January. The combined 150,000 barrels a day cut represents 27 percent of the promised reduction by non-OPEC countries.

    There are, however, also signs that doubts about the compliance of OPEC and non-OPEC parties to the production cut agreement are growing. Unlike in the U.S., where output is pub-lished weekly, members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries can take much longer time to disclose their production. Besides, their data can be put into the question by independent surveys. So each new hint on the accord’s implementation may swing prices.

    The first indications are expected to come at the start of next month, when Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Platts publish surveys of production. A week or two later the estimates from the International Energy Agency and U.S. Energy Information Administration will be published. OPEC won’t publish production levels until the middle of next month. Monitoring the 11 non-members collaborating in the deal could be even harder, as data for the smaller producers like South Sudan and Equatorial Guinea could be rather fragmentary.

    Among other minor worrying signs: the U.S. announced on January 9 a notice of sale from its strategic petroleum reserve, with plans to sell 8 million barrels for delivery over the course of February, March and April. Meanwhile, Libya is seeing rapid gains in oil exports after the reopening of a key export terminal, with output rising to 700,000 bpd (it produced 580,000 in November). Nigeria – which, like Libya, is exempt from the OPEC deal – is intent on restoring production too. That could put additional pressure on prices.

    Besides, a report at the end of last week showed another solid build in the U.S. rig count by 4 to 529, the tenth consecutive week that the oil industry added active rigs. This is the highest level since the week ended Jan. 1, 2016. Companies have added more than 100 rigs since the end of September. As per some forecasts, the U.S. rig count to rise to 850-875 by the end of the year, with spending on exploration and production set to increase 27 percent in North America. It is unclear at the moment, how rising U.S. supply and falling OPEC output will ultimately balance out.

    All in all we expect slight upward trend will prevail in the dynamics of global bunker prices next week as news of the OPEC nations maintaining their quotas will provide a temporary support.

     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2017 December 9

06:36 Hapag-Lloyd to increase rates for all cargoes and all container types from North East Asia to Australia
06:35 British Ports looking for cross border trade solutions as the UK and EU pass first big hurdle in the Brexit negotiations
06:30 Polarcus secures funding for 3D broadband project in Australia
04:11 CMA CGM GROUP completes the acquisition of MERCOSUL Line and strengthens its service offering in South America

2017 December 8

21:46 Neptumar agency successfully completes challenging two-phased delivery of project cargo from China to St. Petersburg
18:17 Yamal LNG loads first batch of LNG on Christophe de Margerie tanker
18:06 Wison multifunctional LNG Distributor granted AiP by DNV GL
17:06 China Classification Society signs Framework Agreement with MAN
16:58 Sredne-Nevsky Shipyard is ready to lay down yet another mine countermeasures vessel for RF Navy (photo)
16:27 Ice-class ships Spasatel Demidov, Admiral Lazarev and Admiral Serebryakov will assist vessels in the Kerch Strait this winter (photo)
16:05 MAN PrimeServ China signs Service Station Agreement with Zhoushan Xinya Shipyard
15:36 CMA CGM premium service to optimize CO2 emissions
15:34 Morsviazsputnik and Qiwi Blockchain Technology signed cooperation agreement (photo)
15:10 Port of Liepaja (Latvia) handled 6 mln t of cargo in 11M’17, up 18% Y-o-Y
14:46 ABB opens first ABB Ability™ Collaborative Operation Center in China
14:19 ABB AbilityTM extended with digital turbocharging solutions for marine
13:48 Sovcomflot’s Christophe de Margerie named Engineering Project of the Year at 2017 Platts Global Energy Awards
13:43 Jumbo signs LOI to order new LNG powered offshore construction vessel
13:25 Bunker prices go down at the port of Novorossiysk, Russia (graph)
13:01 Teekay Tankers announces management change
12:30 Le Havre, France hosts "Women in Port Management" course
12:01 Port of Virginia posts results for Nov 2017
11:43 LUKOIL starts drilling of first production well at Filanovsky field's Phase 2
11:22 FESCO transported 21 000 tons of cargo to northern Russia
11:01 BMT awarded new funding for autonomous navigation
10:40 Brent Crude futures price up 0.06% to $62.24, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.02% to $56.7
10:19 Bunker prices go down at the Port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
10:01 Diana Shipping announces time charter contract for m/v Boston
09:38 Murmansk Sea Fishing Port handled 308,800 t in 11M’17, up 8.8% (photo)
09:20 Baltic Dry Index up to 1,679 points
09:13 Wärtsilä Linesafe for propeller shafts revolutionises bearing design
08:12 Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles ask for proposals to reduce vessels’ at-berth emissions
07:11 ME-GI/ME-LGI dual-fuel engines hit 100,000 operating hours
06:12 ABS Executive lays out vision for future of shipping
05:12 Fincantieri launches new cruise ship “Nieuw Statendam”
04:13 London leads with first Air Quality Strategy for a UK port
03:13 CSSC GWS smart ship project achieves LR cyber-enabled ship (CES) descriptive notes
02:13 DNV GL presents GTT and TECHNOLOG with GASA statement for exoskeleton LNG tanks
01:24 SBM Offshore awarded turnkey contract for Statoil’s Johan Castberg turret mooring system

2017 December 7

18:15 MABUX Weekly Report: Rising oil production in the U.S. may pressure bunker prices
18:11 Throughput of port Riga (Latvia) down 6.7% to 31.11 mln t in 11M’17
17:50 Antwerp will host European Environmental Ports Conference on 16-17 May 2018
17:28 The Port of Gdansk gets yet another EU subsidy
17:05 Crowley’s newest LNG-fueled ConRo ship launched at VT Halter Marine
16:35 Prosafe extends standstill agreement with Cosco
16:16 Port Bronka presents railway-yard project for Russia to take over dry bulk cargo flows (photo)
16:05 OOCL introduces Japan Vietnam Service
15:37 Wärtsilä enters joint project agreement for shuttle tanker development
15:12 Aker Solutions to design Johan Castberg FPSO accommodation unit
15:03 Russian Arctic to face period of serious changes - Deputy PM of Russia
14:37 Seaports of Ukraine handled 121 mln t of cargo in 11M’17, up 0.6% Y-o-Y
14:14 USPA and EBRD signed an Agreement on joint development of concession projects in two ports
13:51 Warships of RF Navy's Pacific Fleet arrive on visit to Myanmar
13:20 Marintec China: DNV GL awards DSIC a pair of AiP certificates
13:00 USC is looking into building 40 MW icebreaker powered by LNG
12:38 Russia's state expert evaluation authority approves Phase 1 of Vostochny-Nakhodka transport hub (photo)
12:02 Throughput of port Murmansk expected to make 51 mln t in 2017, 71 mln t in 2020
11:59 Damen delivers Cutter Suction Dredger 450 to Vesirakennus Ojanen Oy in Finland
11:39 Coal transshipment facilities to be shifted from the center of Murmansk to the western coast of the Kola Bay
11:11 Light fuel is in short supply at the Far East ports of Russia (graph)