• 2017 January 12 15:32

    Bunker prices may continue slight upward trend next week, expert says

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange
     
    World fuel indexes have started the year with a positive trend. However, prices declined sharply at the start of this week on fears of rising U.S. shale production and a reversal of speculative bets by hedge funds and other money managers, a sign that optimism in crude prices might be reaching its limits. There are two major potential drivers at the moment, each pushing in opposite directions on the market. The OPEC deal is going to take oil off the market, while U.S. drilling is expected to add new supply. Each of the trends may ultimately drive fuel prices one way or the other.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs)  demonstrated insignificant and irregular changes in the period of period of Jan.02 – Jan.12:

    380 HSFO - down from 322.36 to 317.71 USD/MT (-4,65)
    180 HSFO - down from 360.64 to 358.00 USD/MT (-2,64)
    MGO         - up from 529.36 to 530.57 USD/MT      (+1,21)


    OPEC’s crude production fell by 310,000 barrels a day in December, as unplanned disruptions in Nigeria reduced the group’s supply. Nigeria’s daily output dropped by 200,000 barrels to 1.45 million in December, ending three months of gains as the African nation struggled to restore capacity after a year of militant attacks on oil infrastructure.

    Overall, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries - excluding Indonesia which suspended its membership on Nov. 30 - pumped 33.1 million barrels a day in December. That compares with a November total of 33.41 million barrels a day for the 13 continuing members of the group, or 34.14 million including Indonesia’s daily output of 730,000 barrels.

    At the moment there are early signs that OPEC members are meeting their commitments. Saudi Arabia said last week that it is lowering its production in January by 486,000 barrels per day, a volume that it promised to cut as part of the November deal. That will take output down to 10.058 million barrels per day, a level that was required to meet as an average over the January to June time period. This step increases the chances that OPEC will stay true to its promises.

    Kuwait and Oman in their turn also give the first signs the curbs are being implemented. OPEC member Kuwait has reduced output by 130,000 barrels a day to about 2.75 million a day.  Oman is cutting 45,000 barrels a day from 1.01 million.

    Russia’s oil production has shrunk by around 130,000 barrels a day in the first week of January (initial goal was to cut at least 50,000 barrels a day this month).  Kazakhstan in turn cut production by 20,000 barrels a day in January. The combined 150,000 barrels a day cut represents 27 percent of the promised reduction by non-OPEC countries.

    There are, however, also signs that doubts about the compliance of OPEC and non-OPEC parties to the production cut agreement are growing. Unlike in the U.S., where output is pub-lished weekly, members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries can take much longer time to disclose their production. Besides, their data can be put into the question by independent surveys. So each new hint on the accord’s implementation may swing prices.

    The first indications are expected to come at the start of next month, when Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Platts publish surveys of production. A week or two later the estimates from the International Energy Agency and U.S. Energy Information Administration will be published. OPEC won’t publish production levels until the middle of next month. Monitoring the 11 non-members collaborating in the deal could be even harder, as data for the smaller producers like South Sudan and Equatorial Guinea could be rather fragmentary.

    Among other minor worrying signs: the U.S. announced on January 9 a notice of sale from its strategic petroleum reserve, with plans to sell 8 million barrels for delivery over the course of February, March and April. Meanwhile, Libya is seeing rapid gains in oil exports after the reopening of a key export terminal, with output rising to 700,000 bpd (it produced 580,000 in November). Nigeria – which, like Libya, is exempt from the OPEC deal – is intent on restoring production too. That could put additional pressure on prices.

    Besides, a report at the end of last week showed another solid build in the U.S. rig count by 4 to 529, the tenth consecutive week that the oil industry added active rigs. This is the highest level since the week ended Jan. 1, 2016. Companies have added more than 100 rigs since the end of September. As per some forecasts, the U.S. rig count to rise to 850-875 by the end of the year, with spending on exploration and production set to increase 27 percent in North America. It is unclear at the moment, how rising U.S. supply and falling OPEC output will ultimately balance out.

    All in all we expect slight upward trend will prevail in the dynamics of global bunker prices next week as news of the OPEC nations maintaining their quotas will provide a temporary support.

     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2017 October 20

18:31 Finnpilot Pilotage Ltd joins the ITS Finland network
18:10 Kari Wihlman appointed as Director-General of Finnish Transport Agency with effect from 1 January 2018
17:47 Rosmorport appoints Oksana Masyuk as Deputy Director for Economics and Finance of its Arkhangelsk Branch (photo)
17:19 Russian Railways's loading of export freight from ports increases by almost by 6% in 3 quarters of 2017
16:56 Scandlines Helsingborg-Helsingör expands capacity
16:28 USPA announced tender for construction of berth 1-z in Port of Odessa
16:03 Wärtsilä's asset and lifecycle management agreement lets GasLog concentrate on its core business
16:00 Wilson Sons Shipyards delivers SST-Aruá to SAAM SMIT
15:31 In 9M’17, TransContainer transported 1.31 mln TEUs, up 17.7% Y-o-Y
15:03 Otto Energy starts drilling of the ST 224 #1 well
14:29 Opening ceremony of Russian-Indian international Indra-2017 exercise held in Vladivostok
14:02 d’Amico International Shipping launches the first three LR1 vessels
13:30 Sea transport of Sevastopol carried 660,400 passengers in September 2017, down 3.2%, Y-o-Y
13:02 ICTSI orders hybrid RTGs for Manila flagship
12:44 Draft procedure for investment port duty assessment is available at federal portal for legal information (document)
12:22 Aker Solutions wins order for world's largest umbilicals system
12:19 APL starts new Korea China Straits service
12:05 LNG reloading station of Klaipėdos nafta applies highest safety standards
11:37 Major ASW ship Vice Admiral Kulakov enters the port of Alexandria
11:08 Zvezda Shipbuilding complex, Rosnefteflot and Taimyrneftegaz agreed to build and operate 10 Arctic shuttle tankers
10:43 Conference “LNG Fleet and LNG Bunkering in Russia”: registration is underway
10:20 Brent Crude futures price up 0.24% to $57.37, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.33% to $51.46
09:59 Innovative passenger catamaran Grifon presented in Saint-Petersburg (photo)
09:32 Bunker prices are slightly up at the Port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
09:14 Baltic Dry Index up to 1,582 points

2017 October 19

18:01 Record shipment marks ABP Ipswich and Glencore support of UK farmer
17:38 Arab Association for Women in the Maritime Sector launched in Egypt
17:15 Throughput of port Kaliningrad in Jan-Sep'17 grew by 17% to 10.17 mln t
16:50 Throughput of the port of Rotterdam up 2% to 351.5 mln t in 9M’17
16:39 Panama Maritime Authority holds a kick-off ceremony for the construction of the new Amador Cruise Port
16:21 Russian and Greek ships to participate in 190th Anniversary of the Battle of Navarino
15:59 Hartmann Group's AHTS fleet secures long-term investment
15:39 Throughput of port Vyborg up 15% to 1.09 mln t in 9M’17
15:13 Throughput of port Vysotsk up 3% to 12.91 mln t in 9M’17
14:44 Throughput of port Primorsk in 9M’17 down 8% Y-o-Y to 44.68 mln t
14:38 MABUX: Global bunker prices may continue upward evolution next week
14:17 Throughput of port Ust-Luga up 11% to 76.02 mln t in 9M’17
13:50 Bunker market in the Far East ports of Russia sees mixed price movements (graph)
13:25 Throughput of Big Port St. Petersburg up 10% to 39.48 mln t in 9M’17
13:02 TechnipFMC reaches an agreement to acquire Plexus’ exploration wellhead business
12:46 USC to transit to a new corporate management system
12:33 Knyaz Vladimir cruise liner ends 2017 navigation
12:31 Port of Fujairah and Dutch Port companies sign MOU
12:01 Prosafe updates operational results for Q3 2017
11:39 First vessel with coal shipped from Rosterminalugol to Portugal (photo)
11:20 Clean Marine receives a seven-system order from Inventor Chemical Tankers
11:08 Drydocks World recognized as the region’s best rig repair yard
10:54 Crude oil futures prices edge down 0.05% to $58,12 in London, in New York - 0.08% to $52,0 a barrel
10:41 Marine Institute CNIIMF to focus on LNG bunker market pricing at the Conference LNG Fleet & LNG Bunkering in Russia
10:08 Samsung Heavy Industries wins order to build LNG-FSRU
09:16 Baltic Dry Index edges up to 1566
09:08 Fincantieri starts dry dock works on Viking’s sixth ocean ship
08:16 Conductix-Wampfler’s LASSTEC Container Weighing System Earns OIML R51 Certification

2017 October 18

19:36 Experts to assess damage caused by tanker’s allision with Primorsk port’s pier
18:06 Scorpio Bulkers announces commitment for a new loan facility
17:36 New regular Ro-Ro service starts from Port of Koper to Japan
17:01 ABP’s Port of Ipswich welcomes Department for International Trade’s Export
16:31 Cammell Laird strikes ‘Teaming Agreement’ with BAE Systems in bid to build Type 31e Frigates
16:30 ABP’s Port of King’s Lynn helps support national infrastructure project
16:03 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from ISC to North Europe and Mediterranean