• 2017 January 12 15:32

    Bunker prices may continue slight upward trend next week, expert says

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange
     
    World fuel indexes have started the year with a positive trend. However, prices declined sharply at the start of this week on fears of rising U.S. shale production and a reversal of speculative bets by hedge funds and other money managers, a sign that optimism in crude prices might be reaching its limits. There are two major potential drivers at the moment, each pushing in opposite directions on the market. The OPEC deal is going to take oil off the market, while U.S. drilling is expected to add new supply. Each of the trends may ultimately drive fuel prices one way or the other.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs)  demonstrated insignificant and irregular changes in the period of period of Jan.02 – Jan.12:

    380 HSFO - down from 322.36 to 317.71 USD/MT (-4,65)
    180 HSFO - down from 360.64 to 358.00 USD/MT (-2,64)
    MGO         - up from 529.36 to 530.57 USD/MT      (+1,21)


    OPEC’s crude production fell by 310,000 barrels a day in December, as unplanned disruptions in Nigeria reduced the group’s supply. Nigeria’s daily output dropped by 200,000 barrels to 1.45 million in December, ending three months of gains as the African nation struggled to restore capacity after a year of militant attacks on oil infrastructure.

    Overall, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries - excluding Indonesia which suspended its membership on Nov. 30 - pumped 33.1 million barrels a day in December. That compares with a November total of 33.41 million barrels a day for the 13 continuing members of the group, or 34.14 million including Indonesia’s daily output of 730,000 barrels.

    At the moment there are early signs that OPEC members are meeting their commitments. Saudi Arabia said last week that it is lowering its production in January by 486,000 barrels per day, a volume that it promised to cut as part of the November deal. That will take output down to 10.058 million barrels per day, a level that was required to meet as an average over the January to June time period. This step increases the chances that OPEC will stay true to its promises.

    Kuwait and Oman in their turn also give the first signs the curbs are being implemented. OPEC member Kuwait has reduced output by 130,000 barrels a day to about 2.75 million a day.  Oman is cutting 45,000 barrels a day from 1.01 million.

    Russia’s oil production has shrunk by around 130,000 barrels a day in the first week of January (initial goal was to cut at least 50,000 barrels a day this month).  Kazakhstan in turn cut production by 20,000 barrels a day in January. The combined 150,000 barrels a day cut represents 27 percent of the promised reduction by non-OPEC countries.

    There are, however, also signs that doubts about the compliance of OPEC and non-OPEC parties to the production cut agreement are growing. Unlike in the U.S., where output is pub-lished weekly, members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries can take much longer time to disclose their production. Besides, their data can be put into the question by independent surveys. So each new hint on the accord’s implementation may swing prices.

    The first indications are expected to come at the start of next month, when Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Platts publish surveys of production. A week or two later the estimates from the International Energy Agency and U.S. Energy Information Administration will be published. OPEC won’t publish production levels until the middle of next month. Monitoring the 11 non-members collaborating in the deal could be even harder, as data for the smaller producers like South Sudan and Equatorial Guinea could be rather fragmentary.

    Among other minor worrying signs: the U.S. announced on January 9 a notice of sale from its strategic petroleum reserve, with plans to sell 8 million barrels for delivery over the course of February, March and April. Meanwhile, Libya is seeing rapid gains in oil exports after the reopening of a key export terminal, with output rising to 700,000 bpd (it produced 580,000 in November). Nigeria – which, like Libya, is exempt from the OPEC deal – is intent on restoring production too. That could put additional pressure on prices.

    Besides, a report at the end of last week showed another solid build in the U.S. rig count by 4 to 529, the tenth consecutive week that the oil industry added active rigs. This is the highest level since the week ended Jan. 1, 2016. Companies have added more than 100 rigs since the end of September. As per some forecasts, the U.S. rig count to rise to 850-875 by the end of the year, with spending on exploration and production set to increase 27 percent in North America. It is unclear at the moment, how rising U.S. supply and falling OPEC output will ultimately balance out.

    All in all we expect slight upward trend will prevail in the dynamics of global bunker prices next week as news of the OPEC nations maintaining their quotas will provide a temporary support.

     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2017 February 23

19:37 Global bunker market: No firm trend in bunker prices next week, expert says
13:19 Hapag-Lloyd announces FAK rates from Far East Westbound Middle East to Europe North Continent and Mediterranean
13:17 Mitsui Engineering & Shipbuilding delivers a 60,000 dwt type bulk carrier to ARIST MARITIME
13:16 IBIA raises awareness of sulphur compliance verification challenges at IMO
13:13 Fincantieri, CSSC and Carnival Corporation sign MOU for 2 cruise ships with an option for additional 4
13:07 Damen Shiprepair & Conversion announces a reorganisation at three Dutch yards

2017 February 22

19:11 Moody's changes the outlook on Sovcomflot from negative to stable
18:36 JV of Port of London Authority and Peel Ports London Medway buys new pilot boat
18:15 Ban of M/V "BEAM” with IMO number 8408258 has been lifted
18:07 Port of Brisbane hosts two mega cruise ships
17:55 Port of Ipswich receives 743 ships in 2016
17:36 ZIM to add a second Asia-Pacific North West service
17:05 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from North Europe to East Mediterranean
17:01 Ningbo Zhoushan Port receives world’s largest vessel
17:00 Bahri Dry Bulk signs a joint venture agreement with Koninklijke Bunge B.V.
16:40 APM Terminals increases Port Elizabeth investment plans to USD $200 million in preparation for ultra large container ships
16:38 Van Oord partner in PortXL innovation platform
16:35 Konecranes wins order in Paraguay for BOXHUNTER RTGs
16:05 Eimskip starts calling Helsingborg in Sweden
15:49 Exercise on the liberation of the captured vessel held in Saint-Petersburg
15:41 Maersk Line’s Margrethe Maersk becomes the largest vessel to call Vietnam
15:23 Yuriy Orekhov appointed to the position of the Head of the RS Branch Office in Spain
15:18 DAMEN launches the latest 70-metre yacht support vessel with helicopter hangar
14:51 Gazprom Neft reports net profit growth of 82.5 % y-o-y for its FY 2016 financial results
14:35 Gazprom Neft to drill first prospecting and appraisal well at the Ayashsky licence block in the Sea of Okhotsk
14:12 DEME’s subsidiary GeoSea to design, manufacture and install turbine foundations for EnBW offshore wind farm Hohe See in Germany
13:40 Yevgeny Dmitrakov elected as new Director General of Commercial Seaport Vanino OJSC
13:12 Six further shipping lines to call at Wilhelmshaven
12:52 The number of modernised warehouses and buildings at the Port of Gdansk is increasing
12:31 Marseille Fos posts 2016 results
12:26 NOVATEK says its profit in 2016 increased by more than three-fold to RR 257.8 billion
12:22 ICS releases latest Flag State Performance Table
12:01 New Times Shipbuilding announces delivery of product oil and chemical tanker
11:41 Cargo transportation by Ukraine’s water transport in January 2017 fell by 33.9% to 0.1 mln t
11:30 ICS releases latest Flag State Performance Table
11:18 HII authenticates keel for destroyer Frank E. Petersen Jr. (DDG 121)
11:00 DP World Australia progresses to RFP for Port of Townsville Berth 4 upgrade
10:55 MEYER WERFT starts construction of the world's first LNG cruise liner for ADIA Cruises
10:38 DryShips re-enters the tanker market, acquires two modern tankers
10:23 ABS issues industry’s first cyber safety notation
10:12 NYK completes winter safety campaign
10:09 Brent Crude futures price up 0.42% to $56.9, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.35% to $54.52
09:55 Onezhsky shipyard (Karelia) launches workboat of Project ST23WI-M, Yevgeny Vasilyev, built for FSUE Rosmorport (photo)
09:34 Norwegian Minister of Foreign Affairs to visit Russia for first time in three years for ‘Arctic: Territory of Dialogue’ International Arctic Forum
09:15 Baltic Dry Index up to 778 points

2017 February 21

18:11 M/V “RINA” refused access to the Paris MoU region
17:20 'MOL Group Safety, Environmental and Social Report 2016' earns Award of Merit in Environmental Communication Awards
17:02 Kelvin Hughes to supply its SharpEye™ radar for Pakistan Navy submarine upgrades
16:20 Wan Hai Lines again tops the “Container Shipping Line of The Year - Far East Trade Lane” Award
15:41 Igor Ponomaryov appointed as Director General of Severnaya Verf shipyard
15:22 Forland Subsea enters into a time charter party with a major international contractor for the Lewek Inspector
14:51 Vyborg Shipyard to deliver second icebreaking support ship intended for Novy Port in May 2017
14:20 Port of London Authority to discuss 20 year growth plan for the Thames river
14:02 CMA CGM announces GRR from India to West Africa
13:41 Bunker prices go down in the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
13:10 New Times Shipbuilding holds naming ceremony for two oil tankers and announces delivery of cargo lake ship
12:55 Yamal major landing ship of RF Navy's Black Sea Fleet returned to Sevastopol from the Mediterranean Sea (photo)
12:39 IAA PortNews offers a photo release from the 4th International Forum of Dredging Companies
12:23 KCA Deutag secures platform drilling contract with Sakhalin Energy
12:10 Intermodal Asia to launch the Industry Leaders Strategy Summit in Shanghai on 21st – 22nd March 2017