• 2017 January 12 15:32

    Bunker prices may continue slight upward trend next week, expert says

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange
     
    World fuel indexes have started the year with a positive trend. However, prices declined sharply at the start of this week on fears of rising U.S. shale production and a reversal of speculative bets by hedge funds and other money managers, a sign that optimism in crude prices might be reaching its limits. There are two major potential drivers at the moment, each pushing in opposite directions on the market. The OPEC deal is going to take oil off the market, while U.S. drilling is expected to add new supply. Each of the trends may ultimately drive fuel prices one way or the other.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs)  demonstrated insignificant and irregular changes in the period of period of Jan.02 – Jan.12:

    380 HSFO - down from 322.36 to 317.71 USD/MT (-4,65)
    180 HSFO - down from 360.64 to 358.00 USD/MT (-2,64)
    MGO         - up from 529.36 to 530.57 USD/MT      (+1,21)


    OPEC’s crude production fell by 310,000 barrels a day in December, as unplanned disruptions in Nigeria reduced the group’s supply. Nigeria’s daily output dropped by 200,000 barrels to 1.45 million in December, ending three months of gains as the African nation struggled to restore capacity after a year of militant attacks on oil infrastructure.

    Overall, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries - excluding Indonesia which suspended its membership on Nov. 30 - pumped 33.1 million barrels a day in December. That compares with a November total of 33.41 million barrels a day for the 13 continuing members of the group, or 34.14 million including Indonesia’s daily output of 730,000 barrels.

    At the moment there are early signs that OPEC members are meeting their commitments. Saudi Arabia said last week that it is lowering its production in January by 486,000 barrels per day, a volume that it promised to cut as part of the November deal. That will take output down to 10.058 million barrels per day, a level that was required to meet as an average over the January to June time period. This step increases the chances that OPEC will stay true to its promises.

    Kuwait and Oman in their turn also give the first signs the curbs are being implemented. OPEC member Kuwait has reduced output by 130,000 barrels a day to about 2.75 million a day.  Oman is cutting 45,000 barrels a day from 1.01 million.

    Russia’s oil production has shrunk by around 130,000 barrels a day in the first week of January (initial goal was to cut at least 50,000 barrels a day this month).  Kazakhstan in turn cut production by 20,000 barrels a day in January. The combined 150,000 barrels a day cut represents 27 percent of the promised reduction by non-OPEC countries.

    There are, however, also signs that doubts about the compliance of OPEC and non-OPEC parties to the production cut agreement are growing. Unlike in the U.S., where output is pub-lished weekly, members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries can take much longer time to disclose their production. Besides, their data can be put into the question by independent surveys. So each new hint on the accord’s implementation may swing prices.

    The first indications are expected to come at the start of next month, when Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Platts publish surveys of production. A week or two later the estimates from the International Energy Agency and U.S. Energy Information Administration will be published. OPEC won’t publish production levels until the middle of next month. Monitoring the 11 non-members collaborating in the deal could be even harder, as data for the smaller producers like South Sudan and Equatorial Guinea could be rather fragmentary.

    Among other minor worrying signs: the U.S. announced on January 9 a notice of sale from its strategic petroleum reserve, with plans to sell 8 million barrels for delivery over the course of February, March and April. Meanwhile, Libya is seeing rapid gains in oil exports after the reopening of a key export terminal, with output rising to 700,000 bpd (it produced 580,000 in November). Nigeria – which, like Libya, is exempt from the OPEC deal – is intent on restoring production too. That could put additional pressure on prices.

    Besides, a report at the end of last week showed another solid build in the U.S. rig count by 4 to 529, the tenth consecutive week that the oil industry added active rigs. This is the highest level since the week ended Jan. 1, 2016. Companies have added more than 100 rigs since the end of September. As per some forecasts, the U.S. rig count to rise to 850-875 by the end of the year, with spending on exploration and production set to increase 27 percent in North America. It is unclear at the moment, how rising U.S. supply and falling OPEC output will ultimately balance out.

    All in all we expect slight upward trend will prevail in the dynamics of global bunker prices next week as news of the OPEC nations maintaining their quotas will provide a temporary support.

     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2017 April 25

18:35 NYK vessel rescues yachtsman in the South Pacific
18:05 Crowley implements new terminal operating system in Puerto Rico
17:53 Two million tonnes of oil produced at LUKOIL’s Vladimir Filanovsky field
17:35 Solstad's extraordinary general meeting approves merger plans
17:12 IAA PortNews congratulates Damen on its 90th anniversary!
17:05 JAXPORT records 13 percent growth in Asian container shipments in first six months of fiscal year 2017
16:35 The Color Line vessel shortlisted for the Next Generation Ship Award
16:05 Evergas announces namegiving ceremony for 7th Dragon vessel
15:55 Multipurpose Reloading Complex increased financing of its ecological programme by 5.6 times
15:31 Yilport Ferrol Container Terminal welcomes first container vessels
15:19 Volga Shipping Company opens navigation season on Upper Volga (photo)
15:08 New coal carrier enters service for JERA Trading Singapore
14:54 Tanker Lilaste of LUKOIL-BUNKER's Murmansk branch will undergo scheduled repair by July 2017
14:33 ABS Guide helps prevent dropped objects
14:19 Gazprom Neft drills first ever multi-hole “fishbone” well on the Arctic shelf
14:03 HRADF names the highest bidder for Thessaloniki Port
13:53 TSHD Severnaya Dvina starts dredging at main navigation canal of port Arkhangelsk (photo)
13:32 Navios Maritime Partners announces acquisition of one capesize vessel
13:02 APL enhances China-Indonesia trade lane with new China Southeast Asia Service 6
12:37 Ventis and OSM form JV for “K” Line LNG vessel crewing
12:06 Vostochny Port participated in 15th specialized international conference “Coaltrans China”
11:42 Bunker prices are still high at the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
11:18 Ukraine’s water transport carried 2,000 passengers in Jan-March'17, down 43.6%, Y-o-Y
10:59 First shiploader delivered to Vostochny Port’s Phase 3 (photo)
10:24 Brent Crude futures price up 0.44% to $55.37, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.43% to $49.44
10:05 Zelenodolsk Plant Named After M. Gorky lays down tenth small-size missile ship of Project 21631 for RF Navy (photo)
09:33 Port of Gdansk throughput up 0.7% to 8.86 mln t in Jan-March'17
09:16 Baltic Dry Index down to 1,170 points

2017 April 24

18:07 DOF Subsea purchased shares in Canadian Subsea Shipping Company AS
17:49 Cargo transportation by Ukraine’s water transport down 9.3% to 0.9 mln t in QI’2017
17:30 Shearwater GeoServices receives TGS Irish Atlantic Margin award
17:02 DOF awarded extension with Statoil for the vessel Skandi Vega
16:36 DHT Holdings announces delivery of two VLCCs from BW Group
16:23 Rosmorport prepares seaport of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy for cruise navigation season of 2017
15:59 Icebreaker assistance services will not be provided at port Primorsk (Leningrad Region) from April 25
15:31 Average wholesale prices for М-100 HFO up to RUB 9,649 in RF spot market
15:03 ICTSI services inaugural call of Evergreen’s Kor-Twn-Phl route in Subic
14:50 IMO in China to share policies and regulations update
14:27 Big Port St. Petersburg stops providing icebreaker assistance services from April 25
14:03 HELCOM Pressure Group meeting focuses on reducing the input of nutrients into the Baltic Sea
13:41 Belgium accedes to oil pollution response treaty
13:20 Yaroslavsky Shipbuilding Plant launches fourth boom-laying boat of Project А-40–2Б-ЯР (photo)
13:02 Ocean Alliance prepares to call at Wilhelmshaven
12:42 Rail Baltica Global CBA confirms the project's financial and economical viability
12:19 Kimmo Rahkamo appointed CEO of Skangas
12:01 Nakilat concludes first quarter with net profit of QR 191 million
11:26 Pacific Fleet ship detachment finished its visit to the Philippines
11:23 Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries attracts 300 billion won investment via pre-IPO
11:04 TransContainer’s net income increased more than 2.3 times to RUB 1,237 million
10:40 Yantar Shipyard laid down rescue support ship of Project 23700, Voyevoda, for RF Ministry of Industry and Trade (photo)
10:02 Brent Crude futures price up 0.72% to $52.82, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.64% to $49.95
09:39 ABP South Wales offers bespoke solutions to Hinkley Point C suppliers
09:15 Baltic Dry Index down to 1,195 points

2017 April 23

08:23 Freeport of Riga CEO position to be announced this week
08:20 MPI Offshore and Vroon Offshore Services collaborate to provide offshore services for the Rampion Offshore Wind Farm
08:17 Christening of EasyMax vessel Egbert Wagenborg takes place
08:16 HRADF announces three improved binding financial offers for Thessaloniki Port Authority SA
08:11 Ocean Rig announces extension of Drill Rigs Holdings early consent deadline

2017 April 22

08:25 Norway is first to ratify 2010 compensation regime for Hazardous and Noxious Cargoes
08:03 Polarcus Amani delivered to Sovcomflot