• 2017 January 12 15:32

    Bunker prices may continue slight upward trend next week, expert says

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange
     
    World fuel indexes have started the year with a positive trend. However, prices declined sharply at the start of this week on fears of rising U.S. shale production and a reversal of speculative bets by hedge funds and other money managers, a sign that optimism in crude prices might be reaching its limits. There are two major potential drivers at the moment, each pushing in opposite directions on the market. The OPEC deal is going to take oil off the market, while U.S. drilling is expected to add new supply. Each of the trends may ultimately drive fuel prices one way or the other.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs)  demonstrated insignificant and irregular changes in the period of period of Jan.02 – Jan.12:

    380 HSFO - down from 322.36 to 317.71 USD/MT (-4,65)
    180 HSFO - down from 360.64 to 358.00 USD/MT (-2,64)
    MGO         - up from 529.36 to 530.57 USD/MT      (+1,21)


    OPEC’s crude production fell by 310,000 barrels a day in December, as unplanned disruptions in Nigeria reduced the group’s supply. Nigeria’s daily output dropped by 200,000 barrels to 1.45 million in December, ending three months of gains as the African nation struggled to restore capacity after a year of militant attacks on oil infrastructure.

    Overall, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries - excluding Indonesia which suspended its membership on Nov. 30 - pumped 33.1 million barrels a day in December. That compares with a November total of 33.41 million barrels a day for the 13 continuing members of the group, or 34.14 million including Indonesia’s daily output of 730,000 barrels.

    At the moment there are early signs that OPEC members are meeting their commitments. Saudi Arabia said last week that it is lowering its production in January by 486,000 barrels per day, a volume that it promised to cut as part of the November deal. That will take output down to 10.058 million barrels per day, a level that was required to meet as an average over the January to June time period. This step increases the chances that OPEC will stay true to its promises.

    Kuwait and Oman in their turn also give the first signs the curbs are being implemented. OPEC member Kuwait has reduced output by 130,000 barrels a day to about 2.75 million a day.  Oman is cutting 45,000 barrels a day from 1.01 million.

    Russia’s oil production has shrunk by around 130,000 barrels a day in the first week of January (initial goal was to cut at least 50,000 barrels a day this month).  Kazakhstan in turn cut production by 20,000 barrels a day in January. The combined 150,000 barrels a day cut represents 27 percent of the promised reduction by non-OPEC countries.

    There are, however, also signs that doubts about the compliance of OPEC and non-OPEC parties to the production cut agreement are growing. Unlike in the U.S., where output is pub-lished weekly, members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries can take much longer time to disclose their production. Besides, their data can be put into the question by independent surveys. So each new hint on the accord’s implementation may swing prices.

    The first indications are expected to come at the start of next month, when Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Platts publish surveys of production. A week or two later the estimates from the International Energy Agency and U.S. Energy Information Administration will be published. OPEC won’t publish production levels until the middle of next month. Monitoring the 11 non-members collaborating in the deal could be even harder, as data for the smaller producers like South Sudan and Equatorial Guinea could be rather fragmentary.

    Among other minor worrying signs: the U.S. announced on January 9 a notice of sale from its strategic petroleum reserve, with plans to sell 8 million barrels for delivery over the course of February, March and April. Meanwhile, Libya is seeing rapid gains in oil exports after the reopening of a key export terminal, with output rising to 700,000 bpd (it produced 580,000 in November). Nigeria – which, like Libya, is exempt from the OPEC deal – is intent on restoring production too. That could put additional pressure on prices.

    Besides, a report at the end of last week showed another solid build in the U.S. rig count by 4 to 529, the tenth consecutive week that the oil industry added active rigs. This is the highest level since the week ended Jan. 1, 2016. Companies have added more than 100 rigs since the end of September. As per some forecasts, the U.S. rig count to rise to 850-875 by the end of the year, with spending on exploration and production set to increase 27 percent in North America. It is unclear at the moment, how rising U.S. supply and falling OPEC output will ultimately balance out.

    All in all we expect slight upward trend will prevail in the dynamics of global bunker prices next week as news of the OPEC nations maintaining their quotas will provide a temporary support.

     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2017 May 25

11:39 Сore functions of London Protocol to participants at workshop in Accra, Ghana
10:55 Arctia strengthens its customer relations team
10:17 Gazprom Neft reports record net income for Q1 2017
09:46 Brent Crude futures price up 0.80% to $54.39, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.76% to $51.75
09:28 Baltic Dry Index down to 934 points
09:12 Keppel secures contract to build LNG carriers worth over S$100m
08:39 Nor Lines and Rolls-Royce sign landmark Power-by-the-hour service agreement
08:14 Wärtsilä propellers and shaft generator system chosen for two new RoRo vessels

2017 May 24

18:01 Finnish Business Community took over AEC Chairmanship at AEC Annual Meeting
17:55 Port of Hamburg’s total throughput up by 1.7 percent at 35.4 million tons in the first quarter of 2017
17:44 RAO/CIS Offshore to be held on 12 - 15 September 2017 in Saint-Petersburg, Russia
17:41 Piraeus Port Authority investment plans tabled at 4th Posidonia Sea Tourism Forum
17:37 Greece is open for cruise industry business says Greek minister at Posidonia Sea Tourism Forum
17:00 Hapag-Lloyd and UASC complete merger
16:26 Throughput of NCSP Group up 1.4% to 50.6 mln t in 4M’17
16:02 MOL starts initiative to develop enhanced operational support tool
15:37 VSM reports record number of merchant vessel orders received by German yards
15:02 Australia develops new blockchain security architecture TBSx3
14:35 Stolt-Nielsen Gas orders two small-scale LNG carriers, with options for three additional ships
14:02 Port of Oakland vessel calls to Southeast Asia up 50 percent
13:44 Port of Hamburg’s total throughput in QI’2017 was up 1.7% at 35.4 mln t
13:23 Vympel Shipyard launches fast patrol boat of Project 12150 Mangust for Sakhalin Border Department of Russia’s FSB (photo)
13:02 ABS launches new and completely mobile application from ABS Nautical Systems
12:31 Pharma logistics services expanding strongly in Antwerp
12:14 “K” Line announces delivery of woodchip carrier “FORESTAL GAIA”
11:49 OSC launches its VLCCs commercial chartering desk
11:17 World’s first LPG-fueled ferry design using GE gas turbine completes HAZID meetings
10:51 BC Ferries will take final acceptance and ownership of its newest vessel, Salish Raven, upon final inspection once the vessel arrives in B.C.
10:20 Brent Crude futures price up 0.22% to $54.27, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.17% to $51.56
09:58 Russian Railways set to facilitate implementation of BAM, Transsib and NLR projects
09:33 Indicative bunker prices go up at the port of Saint-Petersburg (graph)
09:15 Baltic Dry Index down to 949 points

2017 May 23

18:10 Passenger Port of Saint Petersburg welcomes maiden call of Mein Schiff 3
17:51 Spliethoff further extends its Medliner service to Sagunto, Spain
17:27 RF Navy's Black Sea Fleet practiced rescuing a crew of conditionally distressed submarine
17:06 Wagenborg installed the Bøkfjord bridge in Kirkenes (Norway)
16:44 Sovcomflot demonstrated TCE revenues of USD 274.4 million in Q1’17 amid tanker market slowdown
16:35 Keppel to build two additional dredgers worth S$120 million for Jan De Nul
16:22 CMA CGM launches service between the west coast ports of North, Central and South America
16:13 Severomorsk major landing ship of RF Navy’s Northern fleet finished completing tasks in the Mediterranean and entered the Atlantic Ocean (photo)
15:50 Ukraine’s water transport carried 3,000 passengers in Jan-April'17, down 3.3%, Y-o-Y
15:25 Accra, Ghana will host the Ports and Intermodal West Africa Conference on 17-19 July 2017
15:04 Vallianz scores new charter contracts worth up to US$ 115 million for 4 vessels
14:49 TTS Group signs new contract for naval vessels
14:21 Design of nuclear-powered icebreaker-leader discussed at the Krylov Centre
13:56 Igor Ponomarev elected as Director General of Severnaya Verf shipyard (photo)
13:29 Okskaya shipyard sent fourteenth tanker of Project RST27, Balt Flot 15, for sea trials (photo)
13:02 Essar Shipping acquires a Panamax vessel of 74,005 DWT
12:43 MOL sets sights on construction of LNG-fueled tugboat
12:07 Rashid Sharipov elected as Chairman of NCSP BoD (photo)
11:42 Bunker prices show no considerable changes at the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
11:18 Ultra-modern 5,800 cbm LNG bunker vessel Coralius named in ceremony
10:59 National maritime transport policy training held in Antigua and Barbuda
10:23 Brent Crude futures price down 0.91% to $53.38, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.92% to $50.66
10:04 Kalmar delivers five RTG to Evergreen in Taiwan
09:46 Tender on construction of terminal in Pionersky (Kaliningrad Region) declared void
09:25 Baltic Dry Index up to 954 points
09:04 One Sea - Autonomous Maritime Ecosystem introduced roadmaps to autonomous shipping
08:40 Rolls-Royce uses MTU propulsion for biggest High-Speed Catamaran in the Mediterranean
08:37 Svitzer places order for four additional tugs from Sanmar Shipyards