• 2017 February 16 17:08

    Expert says bunker prices may continue mixed trends next week

    The Bunker Review was contributed to IAA PortNews by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World fuel indexes continued irregular fluctuations this week while market focused on two main drivers: OPEC’s supply-cut deal and rebound in U.S. drilling activity. The IEA increased its 2016 estimates for world oil demand growth for a third month, and boosted its outlook for 2017, anticipating an increase of 1.4 million barrels a day this year. It also predicts that world oil inventories will fall by 600,000 barrels a day during the first half of the year if OPEC sticks to its agreement. While stockpiles in industrialized nations have declined for five months in a row, they still remain significantly above average levels.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) edged up slightly in the period of Feb.09 – Feb.16:
     
    380 HSFO - up from 303.57 to 310.57 USD/MT (+7.00)
    180 HSFO - up from 346.14 to 351.57 USD/MT (+5.43)
    MGO         - up from 529.07 to 530.71 USD/MT (+1.64)


    OPEC cut its crude oil production by 890,000 bpd from December to average 32.14 million bpd in January. Production in January decreased the most in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE, while production in Nigeria, Libya and Iran increased. The cartel did not provide a compliance rate percentage, but as per different estimations it is around 90-93 percent.

    Secondary sources figures show that Saudi Arabia cut deeper than promised, and reduced output to below 10 million bpd last month, to 9.946 million bpd, down by 496,200 bpd compared to December  (more than the 486,000-bpd-cut it promised in the deal).

    On the other hand, Iraq, Venezuela, Angola and Algeria cut less than promised, while production in Nigeria rose by 101,800 bpd, Libya’s output increased by 64,700 bpd, and Iran’s output rose by 50,200 bpd. Nigeria and Libya were exempt from the cut-deal while Iran was allowed by raise its production slightly, by up to 90,000 bpd.

    The additional cuts of 558,000 bpd promised from non-OPEC countries is a little less clear -  the IEA projects that Russia has slashed output by 100,000 bpd in January. Russia promised to cut 300,000 bpd over the course of the six-month compliance period. Data from other countries is also unclear although the IEA said that Oman appears to have reduced output by 45,000 bpd.

    Russia for its part will decide in April or May on whether to extend the output-cut deal with OPEC. There are signs that country’s output may be falling but that exports remain high, as its producers protect their export markets at the cost of lower domestic supplies. Taken these trends under consideration, OPEC might have to extend its cuts for a longer period than the currently planned first half of 2017.

    Nevertheless, that is a good sign that the oil market is adjusting towards some stage of bal-ance. As per IEA, if OPEC can continue with its high compliance rate, global oil inventories could decline by around 0.6 mb/d on average between January and June.

    The factor of risk is that oil supplies outside and within OPEC may increase in near-term outlook, offsetting the progress made by the OPEC deal. Rising production in Canada, Brazil and the U.S. may transform in additional 750,000 bpd in 2017.

    In the United States rising drilling activity is pushing up production. Drillers added 8 oil rigs in the week to Feb. 10, bringing the total U.S. count to 591, the most since October 2015. During the same week last year, when prices were around $30 per barrel, there were just 439 active oil rigs.

    Besides, some 10 million barrels of crude from the U.S.'s strategic reserve are scheduled to be sold later this month. The shipment is part of a total 25 million barrels, to be sold over a period of three years. It represents less than 2 percent of the strategic reserve’s current capacity, which is calculated at 695.1 million barrels. As such, the sale is unlikely to have a lasting impact on fuel prices, although a brief fluctuation is likely.

    Demand growth from China and India might not be as supportive as 2016. China’s crude imports in January slipped from a record as refiners eased buying before the Lunar New Year break, when industrial activity tends to slow during the country’s most-important holiday.

    India’s monthly oil demand also fell the most since May 2003 adding some pressure on global fuel indexes at the moment. This decline in demand is due to demonetization: Prime Minister Narendra Modi in November withdrew high-value currency notes in a country where almost all consumer payments are in cash. Growth in gross domestic product may slow to 6.5 percent in the year through March from 7.9 percent the previous year.

    The present market situation looks like oil producers will have to cut production more quickly to drain the global oversupply this year while rising production in the United States is undermining OPEC’s efforts to cut oil output. We expect irregular changes in bunker prices will continue next week.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2018 February 26

02:01 The CMA CGM Group to set up a multi-temperature logistics facility at DP World London Gateway
01:36 Swedish tanker operator sails five vessels under the Swedish flag

2018 February 24

17:06 HHLA: First 20,000 TEU container ship at Tollerort
17:02 Jumbo completes project for the Arkona offshore wind farm

2018 February 22

18:25 European Commission fines maritime car carriers, parts suppliers in three separate cartel settlements
18:11 Port of Gdansk expects multimilloin investments
17:51 Port of St. Petersburg bunker prices edge up (graph)
17:35 Russia’s antitrust regulator gives Transneft green light on Novorossiysk Commercial Sea Port deal
17:02 Maersk Line announces an increase in FAK rates from Far East to North Europe
16:02 The tall ship that harnesses the wind to recharge its batteries
15:29 Port of Tallinn opens passenger terminal A renovated arrivals hall
15:13 MABUX: Bunker market may continue moderate upward evolution next week
15:02 GoodBulk announces delivery of two Capesize vessels
14:40 New product tanker of RTS27M series Balt Flot 20 takes to the water at Krasnoye Sormovo Shipyard
14:02 European Commission issues decision concerning the Violation of European Antitrust Law
13:35 Vostochny Port JSC picks contractors for coal transfer stations Phase 3 project
13:32 HMM reaches over 10,000 TEU in terms of volume of its US Premium Service
13:02 Boskalis receives EUR 300 million Letter of Award for Singapore Finger Pier 3 development
12:24 Northwest Seaport Alliance container volumes decline in January
12:17 Bunker prices in Far East seaports close the week flat
12:12 Rolls-Royce to supply propellers and mission bay technology for UK Royal Navy’s Type 26 Global Combat Ship
10:41 Crude oil futures prices fell 0.81% to $64,89 in London, in New York – by 1.07% to $61,02
10:32 Waterborne freight in Ukraine rose in January by 71.7% to 300,000 tonnes
10:05 CMA CGM announces GRR from the U.A.E. to West Africa
09:18 Waterborne passenger traffic in Ukraine plummets 44.4% in January
09:13 Baltic Dry Index gains to 1146 points
09:05 Konecranes strengthens its bulk handling presence in Japan with a Model 4 mobile harbor crane
08:17 World port accelerator programme PortXL to be launched in Singapore

2018 February 21

19:06 Russia’s State Duma set to change tariff policy to lend a helping hand to inland water transport
18:07 ONE, OOCL and SACO Shipping use booking tool eBooking
17:43 Renovated Stena Line Terminal at Europoort starts operation
17:06 Project to map ocean floor by 2030 now operational
16:52 Rosterminalugol export coal terminal handles 3-millionth tonne YTD
16:22 Zelenodolsk Shipyard to host keel-laying of 11th Buyan-M class corvette, Feb. 23
15:03 Launching of RST27M Balt Flot 20 at Krasnoye Sormovo Shipyard slated for Feb. 22
14:14 NGO Shipbreaking Platform publishes list of ships dismantled worldwide in 2017
13:18 ATOMFLOT says Russia needs nine more icebreakers for the Northern Sea Route by 2025
13:01 Clarksons Platou collaborates with Maersk Line to provide shipping services in Egypt
12:43 Big Port of St. Petersburg imposes ice restrictions in the harbour effective as of March 7, 2018
12:31 Castellammare Di Stabia starts slipway works on the multipurpose amphibious unit
12:10 Rosterminalugol transferred over RUB 1.5bn of taxes to different budgets
12:01 Panama Canal hosts Cheniere Energy to discuss LNG’s Future at the waterway
11:25 MOL car carrier rescues castaways in the North Atlantic Ocean
10:53 Crude oil futures prices edge down 0.8% to $64,73 in London and 1% to $61,17 in New York
10:46 Sovcomflot and Shell ink time-charter agreements for Aframax LNG-powered duo
10:35 Vostochny Port obtains ISO 14001:2015 certificate
09:48 Port of St. Petersburg bunker prices move upward
09:26 Baltic Dry Index rises 2.76% to 1117 points

2018 February 20

18:37 Time is running out to register for the Dangerous Goods: New Requirements for Transportation Conference, March 1, 2018
18:31 Russian association of fishery businesses call to revise a 'fishing quotas per a keel' terms
18:06 AVANZA completes a successful trial with Daikin Reefer
17:38 The Maritime CIO Forume Cyprus 2018 to be held in Limassol, March 27
17:03 DNV GL issues over 50,000 electronic certificates
16:55 RIMS secured a further class approval from Korean Register of Shipping for the use of drones during surveys
16:39 Taganrog Commercial Sea Port spent $156 000 on environment protection in 2017
16:34 Wärtsilä and Maersk Drilling create a joint 25-year strategy for thruster services to increase uptime and reduce costs
16:04 Post-Brexit port health border disruption still a major concern for British ports
15:34 Goltens teams up with Yara Marine on SOx scrubbers
15:21 Taganrog Sea Commercial Port earmarked $74,4 to support social programmes in 2017
15:04 US Navy awards concept design contract to Fincantieri to evolve FREMM into FFG(X)