• 2017 February 16 17:08

    Expert says bunker prices may continue mixed trends next week

    The Bunker Review was contributed to IAA PortNews by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World fuel indexes continued irregular fluctuations this week while market focused on two main drivers: OPEC’s supply-cut deal and rebound in U.S. drilling activity. The IEA increased its 2016 estimates for world oil demand growth for a third month, and boosted its outlook for 2017, anticipating an increase of 1.4 million barrels a day this year. It also predicts that world oil inventories will fall by 600,000 barrels a day during the first half of the year if OPEC sticks to its agreement. While stockpiles in industrialized nations have declined for five months in a row, they still remain significantly above average levels.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) edged up slightly in the period of Feb.09 – Feb.16:
     
    380 HSFO - up from 303.57 to 310.57 USD/MT (+7.00)
    180 HSFO - up from 346.14 to 351.57 USD/MT (+5.43)
    MGO         - up from 529.07 to 530.71 USD/MT (+1.64)


    OPEC cut its crude oil production by 890,000 bpd from December to average 32.14 million bpd in January. Production in January decreased the most in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE, while production in Nigeria, Libya and Iran increased. The cartel did not provide a compliance rate percentage, but as per different estimations it is around 90-93 percent.

    Secondary sources figures show that Saudi Arabia cut deeper than promised, and reduced output to below 10 million bpd last month, to 9.946 million bpd, down by 496,200 bpd compared to December  (more than the 486,000-bpd-cut it promised in the deal).

    On the other hand, Iraq, Venezuela, Angola and Algeria cut less than promised, while production in Nigeria rose by 101,800 bpd, Libya’s output increased by 64,700 bpd, and Iran’s output rose by 50,200 bpd. Nigeria and Libya were exempt from the cut-deal while Iran was allowed by raise its production slightly, by up to 90,000 bpd.

    The additional cuts of 558,000 bpd promised from non-OPEC countries is a little less clear -  the IEA projects that Russia has slashed output by 100,000 bpd in January. Russia promised to cut 300,000 bpd over the course of the six-month compliance period. Data from other countries is also unclear although the IEA said that Oman appears to have reduced output by 45,000 bpd.

    Russia for its part will decide in April or May on whether to extend the output-cut deal with OPEC. There are signs that country’s output may be falling but that exports remain high, as its producers protect their export markets at the cost of lower domestic supplies. Taken these trends under consideration, OPEC might have to extend its cuts for a longer period than the currently planned first half of 2017.

    Nevertheless, that is a good sign that the oil market is adjusting towards some stage of bal-ance. As per IEA, if OPEC can continue with its high compliance rate, global oil inventories could decline by around 0.6 mb/d on average between January and June.

    The factor of risk is that oil supplies outside and within OPEC may increase in near-term outlook, offsetting the progress made by the OPEC deal. Rising production in Canada, Brazil and the U.S. may transform in additional 750,000 bpd in 2017.

    In the United States rising drilling activity is pushing up production. Drillers added 8 oil rigs in the week to Feb. 10, bringing the total U.S. count to 591, the most since October 2015. During the same week last year, when prices were around $30 per barrel, there were just 439 active oil rigs.

    Besides, some 10 million barrels of crude from the U.S.'s strategic reserve are scheduled to be sold later this month. The shipment is part of a total 25 million barrels, to be sold over a period of three years. It represents less than 2 percent of the strategic reserve’s current capacity, which is calculated at 695.1 million barrels. As such, the sale is unlikely to have a lasting impact on fuel prices, although a brief fluctuation is likely.

    Demand growth from China and India might not be as supportive as 2016. China’s crude imports in January slipped from a record as refiners eased buying before the Lunar New Year break, when industrial activity tends to slow during the country’s most-important holiday.

    India’s monthly oil demand also fell the most since May 2003 adding some pressure on global fuel indexes at the moment. This decline in demand is due to demonetization: Prime Minister Narendra Modi in November withdrew high-value currency notes in a country where almost all consumer payments are in cash. Growth in gross domestic product may slow to 6.5 percent in the year through March from 7.9 percent the previous year.

    The present market situation looks like oil producers will have to cut production more quickly to drain the global oversupply this year while rising production in the United States is undermining OPEC’s efforts to cut oil output. We expect irregular changes in bunker prices will continue next week.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2017 August 22

17:57 Gazprom Export LLC congratulates UCL Holding with a decade of fruitful activities!
17:28 Gazprom Neft resumes regular bunkering of vessels with marine lubricants at the port of Ust-Luga (photo)
17:05 OOCL celebrated the christening of hull of OOCL Germany
16:36 Reconstruction of Beringovsky Port will let boost coal exports to 2 mln t per year – Beringpromugol
16:05 MAN Diesel & Turbo and AKA win order from federal Russian agency
15:50 Cuxport handles crane parts weighing several tonnes for the NYK Bulk & Projects shipping company
15:34 SGS Group opts for Aqua-tools ballast water test kits
15:04 CMA CGM announces GRI from Asia to Panama, the Caribbean and Cuba on PEX2 service
14:35 First of ten Stan Tug 1907 ICE completed by Great Lakes Shipyard for The Great Lakes Towing Company
14:25 Baker McKenzie and COBALT selected the legal advisers of the IPO of the Port of Tallinn
14:02 ABP’s Scottish ports raise funds for RNLI and Fisherman’s Mission
13:38 IMO and Liberia looking to enhance maritime security
13:14 Bunker prices are still high at the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
12:47 Dredging at two berths of Vladivostok will let the port accommodate large cruise liners from 2018 (photo)
12:23 Sea Port of Saint-Petersburg has increased financing of labour safety actions by 23%
12:15 Port of Los Angeles and GE Transportation build on early success of pilot with commerical agreements worth up to $12 million
11:59 Maritime security code under review
11:36 ABB’s Onboard DC Grid enables integration of energy storage on specialized hybrid wind farm vessel
11:24 Stealth Maritime Corp. comments on collision of Navy vessel and its Liberia flagged tanker
11:12 FESCO launches its first transit train between China and Europe via Mongolia
10:44 About RUB 14 bln spent for construction of Vykhodnoy-Lavna line under MTH project – Murmansk Region Governor (photo)
10:20 Brent Crude futures price up 0.58% to $51.97, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.59% to $47.81
09:57 Association of Commercial Sea Ports congratulates the management and the team of UCL Holding on the group’s 10th anniversary!
09:35 Coal exports via Rosterminalugol terminal hit 15 mln t milestone this year (photo)
09:14 Baltic Dry Index up to 1,099 points

2017 August 21

18:06 Bahri completes registration of ASLAF under Saudi national flag
17:51 BC Ferries releases first quarter results
17:28 Khersones sailing ship takes part in celebrations marking Yalta City Day
17:06 ClassNK paves the way for HKC verification expansion to South-East Asia
16:53 Passenger Port of St. Petersburg welcomed 15 cruise ships last week
16:32 CMA CGM announces GRI from Asia to Panama, the Caribbean and Cuba on PEX2 service
16:14 Damen launches free dredge calculator
15:46 Linter Shipping Agency congratulates UCL Holding with its 10th anniversary!
15:18 Vice-Admiral Kulakov, major ASW ship of RF Navy’s Northern Fleet made the first business call to Cyprus
14:57 Admiral Vladimirsky research vessel of RF Navy's Baltic Fleet crossed the English Channel
14:29 MNP Group congratulates the team of UCL Holding on the 10th anniversary!
14:00 Average wholesale prices for М-100 HFO up to RUB 11,601 in RF spot market
13:33 RF President gives instructions for allocation of RUB 100 bln in 2017 to modernize BAM and Transsib infrastructure
13:02 Qatar and RasGas complete the first co-loading of LNG for split delivery
12:51 Vostochny Port’s Phase 3 obtains 34 units of small-scale mechanization equipment for RUB 300 mln (photo)
12:46 Nakilat and Shell complete first phase of LNG carrier management transition programme
12:02 Marine Engineering Bureau congratulates its colleagues from Universal Cargo Logistics Holding on the 10th anniversary!
10:48 Total to acquire Maersk Oil for USD 7.45bn
10:40 Brent Crude futures price down 0.06% to $52.69, Light Sweet Crude – flat at $48.66
10:17 Weatherdock's easyONE gets TOP grade at YACHT magazine test reports
09:56 Bunkering tanker Aginskoye will operate at the ports of Varna and Bourgas (Bulgaria)
09:34 Russian Maritime Register of Shipping congratulates UCL Holding management and personnel on the anniversary
09:17 TEN charters two Suezmaxes
09:13 Baltic Dry Index up to 1,260 points

2017 August 18

18:21 TOTE plans to establish new U.S. mainland to Hawai’i shipping service
18:06 CMA CGM announces FAK Rates from Asia to Mediterranean
17:55 NCSP volumes for 7M 2017 totaled 85.2 mln tons
17:27 Alexander Masko re-elected as Director General of Murmansk Commercial Seaport (photo)
17:06 Austal and ASC Shipbuilding re-commit to sovereign national shipbuilding endeavour
16:42 Nuclear-powered icebreaker 50 Let Pobedy sets a record having reached the North Pole for 79 hours
16:18 IBIA supports continued efforts to protect MFM integrity and expanding application to terminal loadings
16:16 Fjord Line doubles the capacity on the fastest route between Norway and Denmark
15:45 Sea Port of Saint-Petersburg renews its equipment
15:19 Finnish Transport Agency reports increase of import/export volumes in international seaborne trade of HI’17
14:51 Indicative bunker prices go down at the port of Saint-Petersburg (graph)