• 2017 February 16 17:08

    Expert says bunker prices may continue mixed trends next week

    The Bunker Review was contributed to IAA PortNews by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World fuel indexes continued irregular fluctuations this week while market focused on two main drivers: OPEC’s supply-cut deal and rebound in U.S. drilling activity. The IEA increased its 2016 estimates for world oil demand growth for a third month, and boosted its outlook for 2017, anticipating an increase of 1.4 million barrels a day this year. It also predicts that world oil inventories will fall by 600,000 barrels a day during the first half of the year if OPEC sticks to its agreement. While stockpiles in industrialized nations have declined for five months in a row, they still remain significantly above average levels.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) edged up slightly in the period of Feb.09 – Feb.16:
     
    380 HSFO - up from 303.57 to 310.57 USD/MT (+7.00)
    180 HSFO - up from 346.14 to 351.57 USD/MT (+5.43)
    MGO         - up from 529.07 to 530.71 USD/MT (+1.64)


    OPEC cut its crude oil production by 890,000 bpd from December to average 32.14 million bpd in January. Production in January decreased the most in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE, while production in Nigeria, Libya and Iran increased. The cartel did not provide a compliance rate percentage, but as per different estimations it is around 90-93 percent.

    Secondary sources figures show that Saudi Arabia cut deeper than promised, and reduced output to below 10 million bpd last month, to 9.946 million bpd, down by 496,200 bpd compared to December  (more than the 486,000-bpd-cut it promised in the deal).

    On the other hand, Iraq, Venezuela, Angola and Algeria cut less than promised, while production in Nigeria rose by 101,800 bpd, Libya’s output increased by 64,700 bpd, and Iran’s output rose by 50,200 bpd. Nigeria and Libya were exempt from the cut-deal while Iran was allowed by raise its production slightly, by up to 90,000 bpd.

    The additional cuts of 558,000 bpd promised from non-OPEC countries is a little less clear -  the IEA projects that Russia has slashed output by 100,000 bpd in January. Russia promised to cut 300,000 bpd over the course of the six-month compliance period. Data from other countries is also unclear although the IEA said that Oman appears to have reduced output by 45,000 bpd.

    Russia for its part will decide in April or May on whether to extend the output-cut deal with OPEC. There are signs that country’s output may be falling but that exports remain high, as its producers protect their export markets at the cost of lower domestic supplies. Taken these trends under consideration, OPEC might have to extend its cuts for a longer period than the currently planned first half of 2017.

    Nevertheless, that is a good sign that the oil market is adjusting towards some stage of bal-ance. As per IEA, if OPEC can continue with its high compliance rate, global oil inventories could decline by around 0.6 mb/d on average between January and June.

    The factor of risk is that oil supplies outside and within OPEC may increase in near-term outlook, offsetting the progress made by the OPEC deal. Rising production in Canada, Brazil and the U.S. may transform in additional 750,000 bpd in 2017.

    In the United States rising drilling activity is pushing up production. Drillers added 8 oil rigs in the week to Feb. 10, bringing the total U.S. count to 591, the most since October 2015. During the same week last year, when prices were around $30 per barrel, there were just 439 active oil rigs.

    Besides, some 10 million barrels of crude from the U.S.'s strategic reserve are scheduled to be sold later this month. The shipment is part of a total 25 million barrels, to be sold over a period of three years. It represents less than 2 percent of the strategic reserve’s current capacity, which is calculated at 695.1 million barrels. As such, the sale is unlikely to have a lasting impact on fuel prices, although a brief fluctuation is likely.

    Demand growth from China and India might not be as supportive as 2016. China’s crude imports in January slipped from a record as refiners eased buying before the Lunar New Year break, when industrial activity tends to slow during the country’s most-important holiday.

    India’s monthly oil demand also fell the most since May 2003 adding some pressure on global fuel indexes at the moment. This decline in demand is due to demonetization: Prime Minister Narendra Modi in November withdrew high-value currency notes in a country where almost all consumer payments are in cash. Growth in gross domestic product may slow to 6.5 percent in the year through March from 7.9 percent the previous year.

    The present market situation looks like oil producers will have to cut production more quickly to drain the global oversupply this year while rising production in the United States is undermining OPEC’s efforts to cut oil output. We expect irregular changes in bunker prices will continue next week.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2017 March 25

07:50 Rüdiger Grube to succeed Peer Witten as Chairman of HHLA’s Supervisory Board
07:34 Prosafe SE reports net profit of USD 172.6 million for 2016
07:31 Deutsche Bahn posts 2016 results
07:29 Hapag-Lloyd to increase rates from Asia Pacific to Arabian Gulf
07:28 Emmanuel Van Damme heads commercial department Port of Zeebrugge

2017 March 24

18:07 EU Naval Force Spanish and French warships conduct combined counter-piracy patrols off coast of Somalia
17:49 Iceberg small-sized missile ship of the Northern Fleet accomplished artillery firing in the Barents Sea
17:38 BW LPG announces re-financing of six 2016 built ex-Aurora ships
17:30 GlavGosEkspertiza approves construction and reconstruction works at the port of Yevpatoria (photo)
17:21 Solstad Offshore ASA, Farstad Shipping ASA and Deep Sea Supply sign merger plans
17:03 Yantar shipyard lays down the third trawler of Project SK-3101R
16:41 Krasnoye Sormovo launches first chemical tanker of Project RST27 built for shipping company Volgotrans (photo)
16:20 Ferus Smit launches Nb. 427 ‘Arklow Clan’
15:58 Rosmorport appoints Tatiana Karpinyan as Chief Accountant of its Azov Basin Branch (photo)
15:39 Port of Gdansk took part in Seatrade Cruise Global fair
15:20 DESS Aqua enters into a contract for the construction of a 3,000 m3 wellboat
14:42 FSUE Rosmorport Executive Director took part in the conference “Port Infrastructure of Russia”
14:20 Svitzer and Sanmar sign contract for a newbuild 80 tbp ASD escort tug
14:01 Icebreakers of FSUE Rosmorport have escorted 5,573 this season
13:37 BPO debate at the European Parliament focused on Baltic ports in the TEN-T network
13:15 MOL completes study project to equip in-service vessels with SOX scrubber systems
12:53 IMO participated in the 20th E-Navigation Committee meeting in France
12:35 ClassNK issues first EGCS ready notation
12:32 World Maritime University and UN Environment step up cooperation to achieve Sustainable Development Goals
12:01 CMA CGM to launch a unique offer between Asia and West Coast South America
12:00 Bunker market at Russian port of Novorossiysk sees mixed price movements (graph)
11:38 DNV GL welcomes B.A.P Carrasco to fleet
11:11 Spring floods on the Lower Volga forecasted to begin in April
10:49 Guam’s oil spill recovery capacity significantly improved
10:24 VNT organized a public discussion on the Vapour Recovery Unit project
09:58 Brent Crude futures price up 0.24% to $50.68, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.347% to $47.86
09:35 Bunker prices are flat at the port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
09:17 Baltic Dry Index up to 1,196 points

2017 March 23

18:16 NDQ sets up in Maritime Logistic Zone in Zeebrugge
18:06 COSCO (Dalian) Shipyard delivers a module carrier
17:55 Zelenodolsk Plant and Krylov Centre striving to expand cooperation
17:36 Rhenus takes a 40 percent shareholding in the ARKON Shipping Group
17:16 Nakilat transitions LNG Mesaimeer to in-house management
17:12 MABUX: The state of uncertainty on global fuel market
17:06 Port Bronka is officially announced as a deepwater port
16:52 Anglo-Eastern, Optimarin and Saga join forces for ground-breaking Manila-based BWT training facility
16:40 MacGregor and Rolls-Royce to explore implications of autonomy for container ships
16:10 Throughput of Chinese ports up 7.1% to 1.36 bln t in Jan-Feb'17
16:03 DHT Holdings announces acquisition of 11 VLCCs from BW Group
15:48 Port of Singapore throughput up 7% to 99.15 mln t in Jan-Feb'17
15:25 SENAN takes delivery of four Interceptor 1102 vessels from Damen
14:52 Corvettes of RF Navy's Baltic Fleet carried out artillery strike on ship detachment of conditional enemy
14:29 Rail Baltica progress discussed with the European Coordinator Ms. Trautmann
14:01 VSTEP and Damen sign cooperation agreement for Royal Bahamas Defence Force project
13:46 Murmansk Region Governor Marina Kovtun took part in “Fishery in the Arctic" conference
13:13 Project Deepening and Widening of Mumbai Harbour Channel and JN Port Channel (Phase-II) gets governmental approval
12:55 Heading towards the 2020 sulphur limit highlighted during maritime industry events in Denmark
12:34 Unique crane equipment delivered to Zvezda shipbuilding complex
12:12 Ulstein Verft is about to complete ship service on the sixth ship this year
11:51 Bunker prices are slightly up at the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
11:30 Two NYK vessels receive Panama Canal's Green Connection Award
11:17 First fish terminal created at the port of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky (photo)
11:01 APL extends cargo assurance for protection against cargo-in-transit risks
10:31 Ocean Yield ASA announces delivery of container vessel with 15 years charter
10:13 Brent Crude futures price up 0.75% to $51.02, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.79% to $48.42