• 2017 February 16 17:08

    Expert says bunker prices may continue mixed trends next week

    The Bunker Review was contributed to IAA PortNews by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World fuel indexes continued irregular fluctuations this week while market focused on two main drivers: OPEC’s supply-cut deal and rebound in U.S. drilling activity. The IEA increased its 2016 estimates for world oil demand growth for a third month, and boosted its outlook for 2017, anticipating an increase of 1.4 million barrels a day this year. It also predicts that world oil inventories will fall by 600,000 barrels a day during the first half of the year if OPEC sticks to its agreement. While stockpiles in industrialized nations have declined for five months in a row, they still remain significantly above average levels.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) edged up slightly in the period of Feb.09 – Feb.16:
     
    380 HSFO - up from 303.57 to 310.57 USD/MT (+7.00)
    180 HSFO - up from 346.14 to 351.57 USD/MT (+5.43)
    MGO         - up from 529.07 to 530.71 USD/MT (+1.64)


    OPEC cut its crude oil production by 890,000 bpd from December to average 32.14 million bpd in January. Production in January decreased the most in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE, while production in Nigeria, Libya and Iran increased. The cartel did not provide a compliance rate percentage, but as per different estimations it is around 90-93 percent.

    Secondary sources figures show that Saudi Arabia cut deeper than promised, and reduced output to below 10 million bpd last month, to 9.946 million bpd, down by 496,200 bpd compared to December  (more than the 486,000-bpd-cut it promised in the deal).

    On the other hand, Iraq, Venezuela, Angola and Algeria cut less than promised, while production in Nigeria rose by 101,800 bpd, Libya’s output increased by 64,700 bpd, and Iran’s output rose by 50,200 bpd. Nigeria and Libya were exempt from the cut-deal while Iran was allowed by raise its production slightly, by up to 90,000 bpd.

    The additional cuts of 558,000 bpd promised from non-OPEC countries is a little less clear -  the IEA projects that Russia has slashed output by 100,000 bpd in January. Russia promised to cut 300,000 bpd over the course of the six-month compliance period. Data from other countries is also unclear although the IEA said that Oman appears to have reduced output by 45,000 bpd.

    Russia for its part will decide in April or May on whether to extend the output-cut deal with OPEC. There are signs that country’s output may be falling but that exports remain high, as its producers protect their export markets at the cost of lower domestic supplies. Taken these trends under consideration, OPEC might have to extend its cuts for a longer period than the currently planned first half of 2017.

    Nevertheless, that is a good sign that the oil market is adjusting towards some stage of bal-ance. As per IEA, if OPEC can continue with its high compliance rate, global oil inventories could decline by around 0.6 mb/d on average between January and June.

    The factor of risk is that oil supplies outside and within OPEC may increase in near-term outlook, offsetting the progress made by the OPEC deal. Rising production in Canada, Brazil and the U.S. may transform in additional 750,000 bpd in 2017.

    In the United States rising drilling activity is pushing up production. Drillers added 8 oil rigs in the week to Feb. 10, bringing the total U.S. count to 591, the most since October 2015. During the same week last year, when prices were around $30 per barrel, there were just 439 active oil rigs.

    Besides, some 10 million barrels of crude from the U.S.'s strategic reserve are scheduled to be sold later this month. The shipment is part of a total 25 million barrels, to be sold over a period of three years. It represents less than 2 percent of the strategic reserve’s current capacity, which is calculated at 695.1 million barrels. As such, the sale is unlikely to have a lasting impact on fuel prices, although a brief fluctuation is likely.

    Demand growth from China and India might not be as supportive as 2016. China’s crude imports in January slipped from a record as refiners eased buying before the Lunar New Year break, when industrial activity tends to slow during the country’s most-important holiday.

    India’s monthly oil demand also fell the most since May 2003 adding some pressure on global fuel indexes at the moment. This decline in demand is due to demonetization: Prime Minister Narendra Modi in November withdrew high-value currency notes in a country where almost all consumer payments are in cash. Growth in gross domestic product may slow to 6.5 percent in the year through March from 7.9 percent the previous year.

    The present market situation looks like oil producers will have to cut production more quickly to drain the global oversupply this year while rising production in the United States is undermining OPEC’s efforts to cut oil output. We expect irregular changes in bunker prices will continue next week.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2017 June 23

16:43 Vladimir Putin launched the alignment of the shallow and deep-water sections of the Turkish Stream
16:27 Vostochny Port monitors environment with the help of a drone
16:04 Port of NYNJ/OCEMA agreement to become effective Sunday
15:35 Brittany Ferries confirms LNG cross-channel ferry order
15:04 Diana Shipping announces time charter contract for m/v Clio with Phaethon
14:39 Ukraine's Ministry of Infrastructure will present investment opportunities of Chornomorsk seaport
14:15 Baltic Sea Tug Agency performed its first operation on towing and mooring of oil tanker at Ust-Luga port (photo)
14:09 Damen delivers two tugs to Rimorchiatori Riuniti
13:52 RF Government proposes amendments to a bill on extension of ‘cabotage’ concept in Russia’s Merchant Shipping Code
13:16 USPA will update the dredging and ecological security fleet of Ukraine
12:54 Statoil awards contract on new shuttle tankers
12:01 DP World and Masdar to explore clean energy solutions
11:48 MOL-MES to jointly develop "Next-generation Vessel Monitoring and Support System"
11:10 GTT receives an order from Hyundai Heavy Industries to equip a new LNG carrier
10:37 Vostochny Port purchased VIKHR vacuum cleaner for Nakhodka streets
10:12 Passenger Port of Saint-Petersburg welcomes innaugural call of Seven Seas Explorer
09:48 Brent Crude futures price up 0.42% to $45.41, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.42% to $42.92
09:15 Baltic Dry Index up to 855 points

2017 June 22

18:04 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from United Arab Emirates to East Africa
17:55 Throughput of port Kaliningrad in Jan-May'17 grew by 3% to 5.41 mln t
17:33 Throughput of port Vyborg up 10% to 501,400 t in 5M’17
17:16 Rudiger Grube named as new Chairman of HHLA’s Supervisory Board
17:04 Kalmar wins an order of six RTGs from Ports America Chesapeake in Baltimore, USA
16:37 Increase in cruise calls as sector grows at ABP South Wales
16:05 HHLA holds AGM, OKs distribution of € 46.7M to shareholders for the 2016FY
16:04 The world’s largest container ship makes its maiden call at Hutchison Ports Port of Felixstowe
15:45 Throughput of port Primorsk in 5M’17 is flat, year-on-year, at 27.46 mln t
15:44 MABUX: No upward drivers on global bunker market so far
15:24 Gasum increase its shareholding in Skangas
15:03 BIMCO, INTERCARGO, ICS and INTERTANKO unite to propose ambitious Co2 reduction objectives to IMO
14:33 TTS Group signs historical contract for Syncrolift® and transfer system
14:03 CMA CGM announces Overweight Surcharge from Italian ports to all Eastbound trades
13:38 IMO treaty covering removal of wrecks was under discussion at dedicated seminar in London
13:31 Kieler Woche draws cruise ships
13:15 Throughput of port Vysotsk up 15% to 7.73 mln t in Jan-May'17
13:11 Sweden’s Port of Kapellskär gets five modern quay-berths and a larger port area
12:53 Throughput of port Ust-Luga up 12% to 42.05 mln t in 5M’17
12:16 Throughput of Big Port St. Petersburg up 7% to 21.47 mln t in 5M’17
12:01 Sanmar constructs the world’s first remotely operated commercial vessel
11:24 Northwest Seaport Alliance handles record May international container volume
11:19 Africa Maritime cooperation centre holds first workshop
10:47 Maximum number of ships received by Passenger Port of Saint-Petersburg
10:20 SBM Offshore awarded turnkey and lease and operate contracts for the ExxonMobil Liza FPSO
10:11 Brent Crude futures price down 0.09% to $44.78, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.05% to $42.51
09:45 Port of Gdansk participates in Polish Days of the Sea in Slovakia
09:36 New car-and-passenger ferry deployed at Kerch Strait ferry line (photo)
09:18 Baltic Dry Index down to 844 points

2017 June 21

20:10 Combi Lift calls on Damen with 19 vessel order
20:05 Damen’s UK Sales Manager receives Lifetime Achievement Award
18:12 Icebreaker pier in Katajanokka (Helsinki) reinforced and extended for IB Polaris
17:51 ABP donates £1,500 to Felixstowe Volunteer Coast Patrol Rescue Service
17:30 Russian-Greek joint commission for maritime navigation held its first session
17:06 Eighty-seven Crowley vessels honored with Jones F. Devlin Awards recognizing 670 combined years of safe operations
16:47 GMN maritime technology project seeks stakeholder participation
16:25 Ha Noi will host Vietship 2018 on January 24-26
16:04 Diana Shipping announces time charter contract for m/v Protefs with Hudson
15:46 IMO’s Chris Trelawny was speaking at the Port Security Technology conference in London
15:34 Ulstein Verft earns ISO9001 certificate
15:04 14,000 TEU Tampa Triumph vessel makes maiden call at Gulftainer’s Northern Container Terminal in Saudi Arabia
14:52 Ukraine’s water transport carried 0.1 mln passengers in Jan-May'17, up 4.9%, Y-o-Y