• 2017 February 16 17:08

    Expert says bunker prices may continue mixed trends next week

    The Bunker Review was contributed to IAA PortNews by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World fuel indexes continued irregular fluctuations this week while market focused on two main drivers: OPEC’s supply-cut deal and rebound in U.S. drilling activity. The IEA increased its 2016 estimates for world oil demand growth for a third month, and boosted its outlook for 2017, anticipating an increase of 1.4 million barrels a day this year. It also predicts that world oil inventories will fall by 600,000 barrels a day during the first half of the year if OPEC sticks to its agreement. While stockpiles in industrialized nations have declined for five months in a row, they still remain significantly above average levels.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) edged up slightly in the period of Feb.09 – Feb.16:
     
    380 HSFO - up from 303.57 to 310.57 USD/MT (+7.00)
    180 HSFO - up from 346.14 to 351.57 USD/MT (+5.43)
    MGO         - up from 529.07 to 530.71 USD/MT (+1.64)


    OPEC cut its crude oil production by 890,000 bpd from December to average 32.14 million bpd in January. Production in January decreased the most in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE, while production in Nigeria, Libya and Iran increased. The cartel did not provide a compliance rate percentage, but as per different estimations it is around 90-93 percent.

    Secondary sources figures show that Saudi Arabia cut deeper than promised, and reduced output to below 10 million bpd last month, to 9.946 million bpd, down by 496,200 bpd compared to December  (more than the 486,000-bpd-cut it promised in the deal).

    On the other hand, Iraq, Venezuela, Angola and Algeria cut less than promised, while production in Nigeria rose by 101,800 bpd, Libya’s output increased by 64,700 bpd, and Iran’s output rose by 50,200 bpd. Nigeria and Libya were exempt from the cut-deal while Iran was allowed by raise its production slightly, by up to 90,000 bpd.

    The additional cuts of 558,000 bpd promised from non-OPEC countries is a little less clear -  the IEA projects that Russia has slashed output by 100,000 bpd in January. Russia promised to cut 300,000 bpd over the course of the six-month compliance period. Data from other countries is also unclear although the IEA said that Oman appears to have reduced output by 45,000 bpd.

    Russia for its part will decide in April or May on whether to extend the output-cut deal with OPEC. There are signs that country’s output may be falling but that exports remain high, as its producers protect their export markets at the cost of lower domestic supplies. Taken these trends under consideration, OPEC might have to extend its cuts for a longer period than the currently planned first half of 2017.

    Nevertheless, that is a good sign that the oil market is adjusting towards some stage of bal-ance. As per IEA, if OPEC can continue with its high compliance rate, global oil inventories could decline by around 0.6 mb/d on average between January and June.

    The factor of risk is that oil supplies outside and within OPEC may increase in near-term outlook, offsetting the progress made by the OPEC deal. Rising production in Canada, Brazil and the U.S. may transform in additional 750,000 bpd in 2017.

    In the United States rising drilling activity is pushing up production. Drillers added 8 oil rigs in the week to Feb. 10, bringing the total U.S. count to 591, the most since October 2015. During the same week last year, when prices were around $30 per barrel, there were just 439 active oil rigs.

    Besides, some 10 million barrels of crude from the U.S.'s strategic reserve are scheduled to be sold later this month. The shipment is part of a total 25 million barrels, to be sold over a period of three years. It represents less than 2 percent of the strategic reserve’s current capacity, which is calculated at 695.1 million barrels. As such, the sale is unlikely to have a lasting impact on fuel prices, although a brief fluctuation is likely.

    Demand growth from China and India might not be as supportive as 2016. China’s crude imports in January slipped from a record as refiners eased buying before the Lunar New Year break, when industrial activity tends to slow during the country’s most-important holiday.

    India’s monthly oil demand also fell the most since May 2003 adding some pressure on global fuel indexes at the moment. This decline in demand is due to demonetization: Prime Minister Narendra Modi in November withdrew high-value currency notes in a country where almost all consumer payments are in cash. Growth in gross domestic product may slow to 6.5 percent in the year through March from 7.9 percent the previous year.

    The present market situation looks like oil producers will have to cut production more quickly to drain the global oversupply this year while rising production in the United States is undermining OPEC’s efforts to cut oil output. We expect irregular changes in bunker prices will continue next week.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2017 April 25

11:18 Ukraine’s water transport carried 2,000 passengers in Jan-March'17, down 43.6%, Y-o-Y
10:59 First shiploader delivered to Vostochny Port’s Phase 3 (photo)
10:24 Brent Crude futures price up 0.44% to $55.37, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.43% to $49.44
10:05 Zelenodolsk Plant Named After M. Gorky lays down tenth small-size missile ship of Project 21631 for RF anvy (photo)
09:33 Port of Gdansk throughput up 0.7% to 8.86 mln t in Jan-March'17
09:16 Baltic Dry Index down to 1,170 points

2017 April 24

18:07 DOF Subsea purchased shares in Canadian Subsea Shipping Company AS
17:49 Cargo transportation by Ukraine’s water transport down 9.3% to 0.9 mln t in QI’2017
17:30 Shearwater GeoServices receives TGS Irish Atlantic Margin award
17:02 DOF awarded extension with Statoil for the vessel Skandi Vega
16:36 DHT Holdings announces delivery of two VLCCs from BW Group
16:23 Rosmorport prepares seaport of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskiy for cruise navigation season of 2017
15:59 Icebreaker assistance services will not be provided at port Primorsk (Leningrad Region) from April 25
15:31 Average wholesale prices for М-100 HFO up to RUB 9,649 in RF spot market
15:03 ICTSI services inaugural call of Evergreen’s Kor-Twn-Phl route in Subic
14:50 IMO in China to share policies and regulations update
14:27 Big Port St. Petersburg stops providing icebreaker assistance services from April 25
14:03 HELCOM Pressure Group meeting focuses on reducing the input of nutrients into the Baltic Sea
13:41 Belgium accedes to oil pollution response treaty
13:20 Yaroslavsky Shipbuilding Plant launches fourth boom-laying boat of Project А-40–2Б-ЯР (photo)
13:02 Ocean Alliance prepares to call at Wilhelmshaven
12:42 Rail Baltica Global CBA confirms the project's financial and economical viability
12:19 Kimmo Rahkamo appointed CEO of Skangas
12:01 Nakilat concludes first quarter with net profit of QR 191 million
11:26 Pacific Fleet ship detachment finished its visit to the Philippines
11:23 Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries attracts 300 billion won investment via pre-IPO
11:04 TransContainer’s net income increased more than 2.3 times to RUB 1,237 million
10:40 Yantar Shipyard laid down rescue support ship of Project 23700, Voyevoda, for RF Ministry of Industry and Trade (photo)
10:02 Brent Crude futures price up 0.72% to $52.82, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.64% to $49.95
09:39 ABP South Wales offers bespoke solutions to Hinkley Point C suppliers
09:15 Baltic Dry Index down to 1,195 points

2017 April 23

08:23 Freeport of Riga CEO position to be announced this week
08:20 MPI Offshore and Vroon Offshore Services collaborate to provide offshore services for the Rampion Offshore Wind Farm
08:17 Christening of EasyMax vessel Egbert Wagenborg takes place
08:16 HRADF announces three improved binding financial offers for Thessaloniki Port Authority SA
08:11 Ocean Rig announces extension of Drill Rigs Holdings early consent deadline

2017 April 22

08:25 Norway is first to ratify 2010 compensation regime for Hazardous and Noxious Cargoes
08:03 Polarcus Amani delivered to Sovcomflot
08:01 Concordia Maritime charters two ECO MR tankers
07:59 DEME acquires new dredging contracts in Germany, France, UK and Spain
07:54 Two Damen companies to combine their specific skill sets
07:49 Ireland’s port traffic remains strong in 2016 despite challenging trading environment

2017 April 21

18:01 President of the Philippines visited RF Navy’s Varyag missile cruiser in the port of Manila
17:40 Shipbuilding cluster to be created in the Astrakhan Region
17:15 Bill on transit cargo transportation supported by RF Government with some comments and proposals
16:52 Commander of Varyag cruiser of RF Navy's Pacific Fleet had a meeting with Philippine Navy Commander
16:31 Gates on the Upper Volga can be opened ahead of schedule as requested by ship owners – Rosmorrechflot
16:06 Active search of crewmembers of dry cargo ship Geroi Arsenala is over in the Black Sea
15:48 Superficial structure of the Ice-Resistant Platform-2 escorted along the Volga-Caspian Marine Shipping Canal
15:24 CMA CGM announces GRI from Asia to Panama, the Caribbean and Cuba on PEX2 service
15:09 World's bunker market still in waiting mood, expert says
14:55 Indicative bunker prices are flat at the port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
14:23 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from Asia to North Africa trades
14:02 Navios Maritime Partners agrees to acquire 14-vessel container fleet from Rickmers Maritime
13:41 Moscow will host Midstream & Downstream Russia & CIS on 22-23 June, 2017
13:23 Siem Offshore announces charter contracts
13:02 EIB and ABN AMRO provide EUR 150 million to finance green shipping
12:57 Throughput of port Kaliningrad in QI’2017 up 1% to 3.14 mln t
12:31 ICTSI, DOTr launch the Philippine´s first container barge terminal
12:02 Throughput of port Vyborg up 9% to 251,800 t in QI’2017