• 2017 March 16 18:29

    MABUX: High level of uncertainty prevails in the global bunker market

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World fuel indexes dropped to their lowest levels since December during the week when the optimism surrounding the OPEC deal was just getting underway, but turned into upward correction recently as U.S. crude stockpiles unexpectedly decline last week. The market’s volatility surged the most since before the 2014 price crash started.
     
    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) dropped in the period of Mar.09 – Mar.16:

    380 HSFO - down from 297.07 to 283.00 USD/MT  (-14,07)
    180 HSFO - down from 339.36 to 326.21 USD/MT  (-13,15)
    MGO         - down from 517.21  to 510.07 USD/MT  (-7,14)


    OPEC’s strategy to balance the oil market and bolster prices is facing its biggest test now. The producer group is aiming to revamp the market by eroding a crude inventory surplus that’s depressed prices since 2014. However, a deal to cut output had the side-effect of triggering a surge in U.S. production and a jump in the inventories to an all-time high. So at the moment the effect of the cuts looks much more short-lived than expected, and the fall in prices last week may indicate a kind of turning point.

    OPEC’s February report showed total output had fallen from 32.097 million bpd in January to 31.958 million bpd. Members which agreed to the production freeze and cuts were able to reduce production from 29.9 million to 29.7 million bpd.

    The International Energy Agency in turn estimated OPEC compliance with agreed output cuts at 98% in the first two months of the year, while Saudi compliance was at 135%. At the same time Russia and other non-OPEC producers' adherence to agreed cuts in the period was only at 37%. If current output levels maintained to June the IEA sees an implied market deficit of 500,000 b/d in the first half of 2017.

    Though OPEC has managed to achieve a high standard of compliance, it has mostly been due to the oversized cut by the largest member of the group—Saudi Arabia. However, last week Saudi Arabia let it leak that the kingdom has no intention of leading OPEC toward another cut in production to accommodate the growing volumes of oil from American shale deposits. It is quite possible that if the situation doesn’t improve in the next few weeks, it is unlikely that Saudi Arabia will continue to bear the responsibility alone.

    Besides, two OPEC members, Iran and Iraq, are weakening Saudi Arabia’s position by taking steps to boost production. According to the IEA, Iraq will increase its output to 5.4 million barrels per day by 2022, which is significantly higher than the earlier estimates of an increase to 4.6 million bpd by 2021. Similarly, Iran is expected to boost production by 400,000 bpd to reach 4.15 million bpd production in 2022.

    A kind of price supporting factor at the moment is Libya, where oil output has allegedly dropped by about 80,000 barrels a day since clashes broke out. Output is now around 620,000 barrels per day (far less than the 1.6 million barrels a day it produced before a 2011 uprising) as Es Sider, the country’s biggest oil port, and Ras Lanuf, its third-largest, remain closed. The country's state oil company - NOC - stated that the Company could declare state of force majeure if the current clashes continue for long.

    The fact that U.S. crude inventories are breaking records every week and oil prices have failed to post any gains so far in 2017 offers the evidence that the comeback in the U.S. oil industry is undermining the effectiveness of the OPEC deal. The U.S. shale oil drillers have used higher prices to add new rigs for the past eight weeks in a row. In the week to March 10, the total rig count increased to 617, compared to 386 a year ago. Though the rig count is still way below the peak of 1,609 reached in October 2014, the recovery from the six-year lows of 316 rigs in May 2016, has been outstanding.

    As a result, U.S. crude oil production, which had dropped from the highs of 9,600,000 bpd in June 2015, to a low of 8,428,000 bpd in July, 2016 is on the rise once again. In the week ending March 10, 2017, U.S. crude output rose for a fourth week, advancing 21,000 barrels a day to 9.11 million barrel a day, the highest level since February 2016. The worrying part for OPEC is that the EIA estimates that U.S. oil production will average 9,210,000 bpd this year.

    The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 0.75 percent to 1.00 percent for the second time in three months. The decision was spurred by steady economic growth, strong job gains and confidence that inflation is rising to the central bank's target: the arguments supporting global fuel prices as well.

    What happens next is uncertain. The much faster return of U.S. shale production and soft fuel prices have stimulated discussions within OPEC to extend the six-month deal until the end of the year. This week Kuwait became the first member to officially endorse a roll-over of the production cuts for another six months. Iraq and Angola have also suggested they would be open to an extension. It is obvious that fuel indexes will drop if OPEC says that they are not open to extending their production cuts. On the other hand, if prices remain low, OPEC only stands to lose market share to its competitors by continuing the production cuts.

    We do not expect that the situation on the bunker market will clear up next week too much. So bunker prices may stay rather volatile and continue to demonstrate irregular changes.



     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2018 May 20

09:21 Hapag-Lloyd announces FAK rates from North Europe to Caribbean, Central America and South America West Coast
09:19 EU Ambassadors visit Peru’s largest multipurpose terminal
09:16 SEA\LNG bolsters its knowledge base with the addition of MAN Diesel & Turbo
09:13 Finnlines starts new direct service between Helsinki and Aarhus
09:11 Canadian Coast Guard selects ABS for fleetwide contract

2018 May 19

10:56 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from Asia to North Africa
10:01 CMA CGM announces PSS from Nigeria to India and Vietnam
07:50 Port of Kiel welcomes “Saga Sapphire” maiden visit
07:47 The “GRANDE HALIFAX” christened in Halifax

2018 May 18

18:00 Denis Manturov appointed as the Minister of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation
17:44 Port of Hamburg posts Q1 2018 results
17:39 Yevgeny Ditrikh appointed as the Minister of Transport of the Russian Federation (photo)
17:38 Seaspan accepts delivery of third 10000 TEU SAVER containership in four ship series
17:35 Prosafe extends standstill agreement with Cosco
17:17 Okskaya Sudoverf delivered Belmax 1, first non-self-propelled tank barge of Project ROB20
16:51 Special event on ports at IMO Headquarters will focus on single window, ports and logistics
16:35 Port of Hamburg receives ‘Best Global Seaport’ award
16:05 IMO begins scoping exercise on autonomous vessels
15:42 Brand-new jetty at Rotterdam LBC Tank Terminals ready for vessels
15:40 HELCOM group meets in Riga to discuss nutrients from land-based sources
15:39 Multimillion pound investment continues in Grangemouth, Scotland's premier port
15:38 India benefits from IMO training on port emissions
15:11 Nevsky Shipyard starts sea trials of medium sea tanker of project 23130 (photo)
14:44 Star Marine takes delivery of RAstar 3400 quartet
13:53 Ladozhsky Bridge in the Leningrad Region drawn twice to let PORT FLEET’s tugboats through
13:47 Eniram signs MoU with Arista Shipping to participate in Project Forward for developing new generation of bulk carriers
13:29 Statoil ASA changes name to Equinor ASA
13:00 Cargo turnover at inland water ways of Azov-Don Basin down 12.7% to 606,000 tonnes
12:42 ABS to provide class and certification services for the entire Canadian Coast Guard fleet
11:57 Astrakhan branch of Zvyozdochka shipyard launches rescue towboat for RF Defence Ministry (photo)
11:35 Huntington Ingalls authenticates keel of submarine Montana (SSN 794)
11:18 Akademik Lomonosov FPU arrives in the Kola Bay (photo)
11:03 UAE signs MoU with ITF
10:32 Throughput of port Kaliningrad in 4M’18 up 10% Y-o-Y to 4.71 million tonnes
10:30 Scorpio Tankers announces sale and leaseback agreements for five product tankers
10:13 Brent Crude futures price up 0.30% to $79.54, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.21% to $71.64
09:56 ZNT Yard launched the lead hydrographic survey vessel and lays down two more HSVs (photo)
09:17 Baltic Dry Index fell to 1,305 points

2018 May 17

18:05 Technava and Propulsion Analytics join forces for providing management solutions to the shipping industry in Greece and Cyprus
17:54 Throughput of port Taganrog in Jan-Apr'18 up 39.8% to 1.46 million tonnes
17:35 EUROGATE chosen as “Best Green Container Terminal Operator 2018”
17:19 Throughput of port Vyborg in 4M’18 up 22% Y-o-Y to 417,000 tonnes
17:05 Costa Group and Marseille Fos Port announce partnership
16:48 Throughput of Rostov-on-Don port in 4M’18 up 29% Y-o-Y to 5.5 0 million tonnes
16:35 Yang Ming wins Best Shipping Line – Intra-Asia Award
16:20 Throughput of port Primorsk in 4M’18 down 19% Y-o-Y to 18.10 million tonnes
16:05 ESPO congratulates seven Wadden Sea ports for obtaining EcoPorts environmental performance standard
15:37 Small-Mid Scale LNG Summit to provide industry solutions
15:34 Rimorchiatori Laziali takes delivery of two vessels from Sanmar
15:31 Konecranes Gottwald Mobile Harbor Crane for Nigerian river port
15:16 Maritime2020 to prepare shipping professionals for IMO Regulations
14:52 Throughput of port Vysotsk in 4M’18 is flat Y-o-Y at 6.19 million tonnes
14:49 Rolls-Royce and Finferries sign cooperation agreement to optimise ship safety and efficiency
14:28 Throughput of port Ust-Luga in 4M’18 is flat Y-o-Y at 32.59 million tonnes
14:05 NSW Ports introduces Australia's First Environmental Incentive for Shipping Lines
13:49 Lithuania and Poland to cooperate in defining the future transport budget of the European Union
13:04 CMA CGM announces GRR from Asia to East Africa
12:57 Autonomous maritime ecosystem to be created by 2025 under One Sea project
12:26 The port of Saint-Petersburg handled 19.31 million tonnes of cargo in 4M’18, up 16% Y-o-Y
12:04 Maersk Line recognized as the Best Global Shipping Line