• 2017 April 21 15:09

    World's bunker market still in waiting mood, expert says

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    The Easter holiday break shut many markets for as long as four days this week and so has not given any chance for world fuel indexes to set up the firm trend: they were changing insignificant and irregular. Still the speculation that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will extend their six-month pact aimed at eroding a global glut is helping boost prices, while there is also concern that rising U.S. output will counter the reductions.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) has decreased slightly in the period of Apr. 13 – Apr. 20:

    380 HSFO - down from 306.36 to 299.21 USD/MT (-7.15)
    180 HSFO - down from 347.07 to 339.14 USD/MT (-7.93)
    MGO         - down from 527.14  to 519.28 USD/MT (-7.86)


    One of the main geopolitical worries for global fuel market is still Syria and possi-ble cancellation by Russia of its cooperation with the U.S. (and others) with regards to operational security in the area. The risk of a military confrontation between the different armed players in the conflict has increased. Several NATO countries, such as Belgium, have already postponed further air force operations in Syria.

    At the same time, the Arab countries also don’t seem to be totally supporting the U.S. attack on Syria. Iraq indicated its worries while the region’s leading military and political power, Egypt, has openly criticized the military action. This in stark contrast to most of the countries from Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman).

    In the short term, the global oil market might not feel an effect of the actions in Syria. Syria’s position as an oil and gas producer is negligible. Since the start of the fights against Assad no real effects on global oil markets have been shown. Syria only produced around 25,000-33,000 bpd in 2014-2015. The future impact, however, could be rather strong, especially if there is a spill-over of the civil war to Jordan, Saudi Arabia, or Iraq.

    The IEA said in its latest report that the oil market is probably already balanced, although more data is needed. Oil inventories are falling in many parts of the world and have started to decline in the OECD as well. As per report, oil stocks in the Organisa-tion for Economic Cooperation and Development industrialized countries fell by 17.2 million barrels in March, although inventories were still 300 million barrels above the five-year average. In the coming months, it is expected that more substantial inventory declines will arrive and demonstrate that the oil market is no longer oversupplied. At the same time, the IEA downgraded its oil demand growth estimate for this year from 1.4 mb/d to 1.3 mb/d.

    Goldman Sachs in turn maintains its projection that oil prices will remain stable due to improvements in drilling technology that can keep a lid on prices. The invest-ment bank says that shale will also limit volatility and offers a five-year estimate on WTI at $54 per barrel.

    OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait are reportedly targeting $60 per barrel: at that price level, government finances would stabilize while it would still be low enough to prevent a resurgence of U.S. shale. However, the risk is that OPEC is underestimating the ability of shale to ramp up. Indeed U.S. shale output is already rebounding. Nevertheless, the plans from OPEC to reach $60 per barrel raise chances for an extension of the collective production cuts.

    Iran, which has been exempted from the OPEC oil production cut agreement closed last November, said it is now ready to join the initiative as long as there is consensus among the cartel’s members. The remarks suggest that Iran has reached an oil output level that it is comfortable with for the time being. There are not, howev-er, any details as to how much Iran would be willing to cut off its daily output or from what monthly production level the cut will be effected. Iran produced 3.79 million barrels daily last month, down slightly from the 3.82 million bpd in February but higher than the 3.78 million barrels in January.

    U.S. crude production will likely rise in the months ahead as explorers added rigs for a 13th week, capping the longest stretch of gains since 2011 and pushing fuel prices down. Rigs targeting crude rose by 11 to 683 last week, the highest level since April 2015. The number of wells drilled has more than doubled since tumbling to 316 in May.

    China reported a 6.9 percent annual growth rate in the first quarter, much better than expected. It is also setting new oil import records by the month, dispelling fears that crude oil demand was slowing down. Imports hit a record high 9.21 million bar-rels per day in March, an increase of 11 percent from February. That spike is likely temporary, but China no longer appears to be the downside risk to oil prices at the moment.

    Global fuel market is in a waiting mood so far. The next steps for fuel prices de-pend largely on geopolitical factors: Syria and Korean peninsula, as well as on OPEC’s further decisions. The volatility on the market remains, and bunker prices may change irregular next week.



     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2017 October 24

10:11 Brent Crude futures price up 0.17% to $57.47, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.15% to $51.98
09:49 RF Government approves Rules for non-discriminatory access to natural monopolies’ services at seaports
09:17 NOVATEK signs cooperation agreement with Kamchatka Territorial Government
09:15 Baltic Dry Index up to 1,586 points

2017 October 23

18:06 Ocean Change requires solutions - UN Oceans Envoy
17:50 Passenger Port of St. Petersburg welcomed one cruise ship last week
17:36 Hyundai Heavy Industries contracts Kelvin Hughes to supply I Band and E/F Band SharpEye™ radars
17:06 Yang Ming provides North Europe-East Med Express
16:46 Cruise shipping season closes in Kiel
16:44 Black Sea Fleet major amphibious ship Azov completed visit in Pylos, Greek port
16:16 RF Ministry of Industry and Trade is planning subsidies to cover costs on construction of shipbuilding complex “Zvezda”
15:55 Cargo transportation by Ukraine’s water transport down 12.3% to 4.2 mln t in 9M’17
15:28 Szczecin and Świnoujście Seaports Authority announces 6.3-pct growth of cargo handling
15:03 Wärtsilä to supply waterjets for a new high speed ferry for Naviera Armas
14:32 Krasnoye Sormovo shipyard launches third chemical carrier of Project RST27М built for BF Tanker
14:03 HHLA Container Terminal Tollerort puts into service three gantry cranes
13:37 305 units of large-size equipment for ZapSibNeftekhim delivered in navigation period of 2017 (photo)
13:10 Average wholesale prices for М-100 HFO down to RUB 12,170 in RF spot market
13:00 TTS Group ASA secures two new contracts with Cosco (Dalian) Shipyard for delivery of two shipsets of cargo cranes and two shipsets of hatch covers
12:56 Port of Helsinki number of international cruise ship passengers up to 478,000 in 2017
12:47 WMU President delivered keynote opening address of Maritime Conference Bahamas 2017
12:26 Mexican port security officials undergone training on complying with IMO’s ISPS Code
11:58 ESL Shipping's LNG-powered dry cargo vessel Haaga successfully launched at Jinling Shipyard
11:31 Seatruck installs its own Optimarin BWT systems during normal service
11:15 Damen and Corrosion host anti-fouling seminar
10:41 Valcom LLC supports conference “LNG Fleet and LNG Bunkering in Russia” as its Sponsor
10:20 Brent Crude futures price up 0.26% to $57.90, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.52% to $52.11
10:02 Nakilat announces financial results for third quarter of 2017
09:49 Vympel Shipyard launches lead high-speed passenger-carrying hydrofoil of project 23160, Kometa 120М (photo)
09:18 Baltic Dry Index up to 1,578 points
02:14 Essar Projects congratulates GMB for inauguration of India’s first Ro-Ro ferry project

2017 October 22

15:47 Navantia and General Electric sign a license agreement
15:45 Maersk Line lands award for sustainability collaboration
15:43 Scorpio Bulkers announces the financing of a Kamsarmax vessel in Japan
15:42 Aker Solutions ASA posts results for Q3 2017
15:39 General Dynamics NASSCO christens USNS Hershel “Woody” Williams
15:36 Nb. 445 ‘Snow Crystal’ launched at the Westerbroek yard of Ferus Smit
15:34 Wärtsilä signs maintenance agreement with GasLog LNG Services for eight LNG carriers

2017 October 20

18:31 Finnpilot Pilotage Ltd joins the ITS Finland network
18:10 Kari Wihlman appointed as Director-General of Finnish Transport Agency with effect from 1 January 2018
17:47 Rosmorport appoints Oksana Masyuk as Deputy Director for Economics and Finance of its Arkhangelsk Branch (photo)
17:19 Russian Railways's loading of export freight from ports increases by almost by 6% in 3 quarters of 2017
16:56 Scandlines Helsingborg-Helsingör expands capacity
16:28 USPA announced tender for construction of berth 1-z in Port of Odessa
16:03 Wärtsilä's asset and lifecycle management agreement lets GasLog concentrate on its core business
16:00 Wilson Sons Shipyards delivers SST-Aruá to SAAM SMIT
15:31 In 9M’17, TransContainer transported 1.31 mln TEUs, up 17.7% Y-o-Y
15:03 Otto Energy starts drilling of the ST 224 #1 well
14:29 Opening ceremony of Russian-Indian international Indra-2017 exercise held in Vladivostok
14:02 d’Amico International Shipping launches the first three LR1 vessels
13:30 Sea transport of Sevastopol carried 660,400 passengers in September 2017, down 3.2%, Y-o-Y
13:02 ICTSI orders hybrid RTGs for Manila flagship
12:44 Draft procedure for investment port duty assessment is available at federal portal for legal information (document)
12:22 Aker Solutions wins order for world's largest umbilicals system
12:19 APL starts new Korea China Straits service
12:05 LNG reloading station of Klaipėdos nafta applies highest safety standards
11:37 Major ASW ship Vice Admiral Kulakov enters the port of Alexandria
11:08 Zvezda Shipbuilding complex, Rosnefteflot and Taimyrneftegaz agreed to build and operate 10 Arctic shuttle tankers
10:43 Conference “LNG Fleet and LNG Bunkering in Russia”: registration is underway
10:20 Brent Crude futures price up 0.24% to $57.37, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.33% to $51.46