• 2017 April 21 15:09

    World's bunker market still in waiting mood, expert says

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    The Easter holiday break shut many markets for as long as four days this week and so has not given any chance for world fuel indexes to set up the firm trend: they were changing insignificant and irregular. Still the speculation that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will extend their six-month pact aimed at eroding a global glut is helping boost prices, while there is also concern that rising U.S. output will counter the reductions.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) has decreased slightly in the period of Apr. 13 – Apr. 20:

    380 HSFO - down from 306.36 to 299.21 USD/MT (-7.15)
    180 HSFO - down from 347.07 to 339.14 USD/MT (-7.93)
    MGO         - down from 527.14  to 519.28 USD/MT (-7.86)


    One of the main geopolitical worries for global fuel market is still Syria and possi-ble cancellation by Russia of its cooperation with the U.S. (and others) with regards to operational security in the area. The risk of a military confrontation between the different armed players in the conflict has increased. Several NATO countries, such as Belgium, have already postponed further air force operations in Syria.

    At the same time, the Arab countries also don’t seem to be totally supporting the U.S. attack on Syria. Iraq indicated its worries while the region’s leading military and political power, Egypt, has openly criticized the military action. This in stark contrast to most of the countries from Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman).

    In the short term, the global oil market might not feel an effect of the actions in Syria. Syria’s position as an oil and gas producer is negligible. Since the start of the fights against Assad no real effects on global oil markets have been shown. Syria only produced around 25,000-33,000 bpd in 2014-2015. The future impact, however, could be rather strong, especially if there is a spill-over of the civil war to Jordan, Saudi Arabia, or Iraq.

    The IEA said in its latest report that the oil market is probably already balanced, although more data is needed. Oil inventories are falling in many parts of the world and have started to decline in the OECD as well. As per report, oil stocks in the Organisa-tion for Economic Cooperation and Development industrialized countries fell by 17.2 million barrels in March, although inventories were still 300 million barrels above the five-year average. In the coming months, it is expected that more substantial inventory declines will arrive and demonstrate that the oil market is no longer oversupplied. At the same time, the IEA downgraded its oil demand growth estimate for this year from 1.4 mb/d to 1.3 mb/d.

    Goldman Sachs in turn maintains its projection that oil prices will remain stable due to improvements in drilling technology that can keep a lid on prices. The invest-ment bank says that shale will also limit volatility and offers a five-year estimate on WTI at $54 per barrel.

    OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait are reportedly targeting $60 per barrel: at that price level, government finances would stabilize while it would still be low enough to prevent a resurgence of U.S. shale. However, the risk is that OPEC is underestimating the ability of shale to ramp up. Indeed U.S. shale output is already rebounding. Nevertheless, the plans from OPEC to reach $60 per barrel raise chances for an extension of the collective production cuts.

    Iran, which has been exempted from the OPEC oil production cut agreement closed last November, said it is now ready to join the initiative as long as there is consensus among the cartel’s members. The remarks suggest that Iran has reached an oil output level that it is comfortable with for the time being. There are not, howev-er, any details as to how much Iran would be willing to cut off its daily output or from what monthly production level the cut will be effected. Iran produced 3.79 million barrels daily last month, down slightly from the 3.82 million bpd in February but higher than the 3.78 million barrels in January.

    U.S. crude production will likely rise in the months ahead as explorers added rigs for a 13th week, capping the longest stretch of gains since 2011 and pushing fuel prices down. Rigs targeting crude rose by 11 to 683 last week, the highest level since April 2015. The number of wells drilled has more than doubled since tumbling to 316 in May.

    China reported a 6.9 percent annual growth rate in the first quarter, much better than expected. It is also setting new oil import records by the month, dispelling fears that crude oil demand was slowing down. Imports hit a record high 9.21 million bar-rels per day in March, an increase of 11 percent from February. That spike is likely temporary, but China no longer appears to be the downside risk to oil prices at the moment.

    Global fuel market is in a waiting mood so far. The next steps for fuel prices de-pend largely on geopolitical factors: Syria and Korean peninsula, as well as on OPEC’s further decisions. The volatility on the market remains, and bunker prices may change irregular next week.



     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2018 January 19

18:06 British Ports Association responds to UK Government announcement on extra funding for border security in the Channel
17:56 ABP South Wales Ports see strong growth in 2017
17:33 Taganrog Commercial Seaport plans allocation of $4.2 mln for implementation of its 2018 development programme
17:06 BPO lunch debate in European Parliament
16:50 Nevsky Shipyard congratulates North-Western Shipping Company on its 95th anniversary!
16:32 LSC Shipmanagement increases its fleet with bitumen tanker
16:27 Azerbaijan Caspian Shipping Company undertakes measures to prevent environmental pollution
16:04 Rolls-Royce supplies MTU engines to equipment manufacturer Terex Cranes for two new Demag models
15:34 Northwest Seaport Alliance international container volumes up 4 percent in 2017
15:03 MSC adds new RO-RO service from NWC to West Africa
14:55 Russian Maritime Register of Shipping reviewes the Rules and Guidelines
14:33 “K” Line announces delivery of ‘Corona’ series coal carrier “CORONA WISDOM”
14:17 Jan De Nul supports V Forum of Dredging Companies as its Sponsor
14:03 Maersk Line announces FAK rates from Asia to West Coast of Central and South America, Mexico, Panama and Caribbean
13:32 Gulf Navigation adds “Gulf Mishref” and “Gulf Mirdif” to its fleet
13:16 CMA CGM announces THC in Kaliningrad, Russia
12:51 Second Vroon W2W vessel completes modifications and outfitting at Damen Shiprepair Oranjewerf
12:45 Port of Antwerp scores 5th record year in a row
12:14 NIBULON starts the second stage of the Southern Buh river dredging
11:51 Bunker prices show no significant changes at the port of Novorossiysk, Russia (graph)
11:28 Nine vessels escorted by icebreakers in eastern part of Gulf of Finland during 24 hours on Jan 18-19
11:03 Freeport of Riga Authority set to enter new markets in 2018
10:40 Russian seaports of the Azov Sea handled 87.8 mln t of cargo in 2017, up 24.7% Y-o-Y
10:17 Brent Crude futures price down 1.01% to $68.61, Light Sweet Crude – down 1.22% to $63.17
09:56 Bunker prices are flat at the Port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
09:32 Royal IHC supports Hydraulic Engineering Structures and Dredging Congress as its Sponsor
09:15 Baltic Dry Index down to 1,139 points

2018 January 18

18:01 ABP South Wales ports see strong growth in 2017
17:39 Russian Union of Water Transport Workers congratulates North-Western Shipping Company on its 95th anniversary!
16:24 Fincantieri signs cooperation protocol with the autonomous Region of Friuli Venezia Giulia and the trade unions
16:02 MABUX: Bunker prices wait for the new market catalysts
15:33 Port of Marseille Fos and HAROPA launch new rail shuttle
15:02 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from Asia to North Africa and from Asia to the Mediterranean
14:32 Unifeeder adds Vlissingen to its service
14:19 Three vessels escorted by icebreakers in eastern part of Gulf of Finland during 24 hours on Jan 17-18
14:02 Ocean Network Express receives all necessary merger approvals
13:50 RPK-Vysotsk-LUKOIL-II terminal received 10.06 mln t of export oil products in 2017
13:32 Part-load optimisation delivers significant fuel savings for MAN auxiliary engines
13:28 Van Oord supports V Forum of Dredging Companies as its Sponsor
13:12 Rolls-Royce announces strategic review of Commercial Marine operation
12:50 Kerch ferry line carried 5.71 mln passengers in 2017, down 4% Y-o-Y
12:31 Wan Hai Lines to launch Japan Express Service to Singapore Malaysia
12:08 Port of Amsterdam receives LME certification
11:59 Vroon awarded multi-year charter for two PX-121 platform-supply vessels
11:36 Chevron Shipping awards global oil and LNG contract to GAC
11:05 German LNG Terminal launches Open Season
10:27 Brent Crude futures price up 0.14% to $69.48, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.34% to $64.19
10:04 FSUE Morsviazsputnik congratulates North-Western Shipping Company on its 95th anniversary!
09:42 Port of Klaipeda (Lithuania) handled 43.17 mln t of cargo in 2017, up 7.5% Y-o-Y
09:19 Baltic Dry Index down to 1,164 points

2018 January 17

18:00 Federal Agency for Water Resources supports Hydraulic Engineering Structures and Dredging Congress
17:03 Diana Shipping announces time charter contract for m/v Phaidra with Uniper
16:48 Sweden's Minister of Infrastructure visited World Maritime University
16:34 DNV GL launches certification framework and recommended practice for Carbon Capture and Storage
16:03 JAXPORT hires new Container Accounts Director
15:50 Lotos shipyard lays down paddle cruiser of Golden Ring design (photo)
15:42 Norwegian Central Bank excludes Evergreen Marine, Precious Shipping, Korea Line and Thorensen Thai Agencies from the Government Pension Fund Global
15:21 Three vessels escorted by icebreakers in eastern part of Gulf of Finland during 24 hours on Jan 16-17
15:04 DNV GL launches new JDP to test biodegradable lubricants
14:49 Beginning of icebreaker assistance period announced at port Primorsk (Leningrad Region)