• 2017 April 21 15:09

    World's bunker market still in waiting mood, expert says

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    The Easter holiday break shut many markets for as long as four days this week and so has not given any chance for world fuel indexes to set up the firm trend: they were changing insignificant and irregular. Still the speculation that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will extend their six-month pact aimed at eroding a global glut is helping boost prices, while there is also concern that rising U.S. output will counter the reductions.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) has decreased slightly in the period of Apr. 13 – Apr. 20:

    380 HSFO - down from 306.36 to 299.21 USD/MT (-7.15)
    180 HSFO - down from 347.07 to 339.14 USD/MT (-7.93)
    MGO         - down from 527.14  to 519.28 USD/MT (-7.86)


    One of the main geopolitical worries for global fuel market is still Syria and possi-ble cancellation by Russia of its cooperation with the U.S. (and others) with regards to operational security in the area. The risk of a military confrontation between the different armed players in the conflict has increased. Several NATO countries, such as Belgium, have already postponed further air force operations in Syria.

    At the same time, the Arab countries also don’t seem to be totally supporting the U.S. attack on Syria. Iraq indicated its worries while the region’s leading military and political power, Egypt, has openly criticized the military action. This in stark contrast to most of the countries from Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman).

    In the short term, the global oil market might not feel an effect of the actions in Syria. Syria’s position as an oil and gas producer is negligible. Since the start of the fights against Assad no real effects on global oil markets have been shown. Syria only produced around 25,000-33,000 bpd in 2014-2015. The future impact, however, could be rather strong, especially if there is a spill-over of the civil war to Jordan, Saudi Arabia, or Iraq.

    The IEA said in its latest report that the oil market is probably already balanced, although more data is needed. Oil inventories are falling in many parts of the world and have started to decline in the OECD as well. As per report, oil stocks in the Organisa-tion for Economic Cooperation and Development industrialized countries fell by 17.2 million barrels in March, although inventories were still 300 million barrels above the five-year average. In the coming months, it is expected that more substantial inventory declines will arrive and demonstrate that the oil market is no longer oversupplied. At the same time, the IEA downgraded its oil demand growth estimate for this year from 1.4 mb/d to 1.3 mb/d.

    Goldman Sachs in turn maintains its projection that oil prices will remain stable due to improvements in drilling technology that can keep a lid on prices. The invest-ment bank says that shale will also limit volatility and offers a five-year estimate on WTI at $54 per barrel.

    OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait are reportedly targeting $60 per barrel: at that price level, government finances would stabilize while it would still be low enough to prevent a resurgence of U.S. shale. However, the risk is that OPEC is underestimating the ability of shale to ramp up. Indeed U.S. shale output is already rebounding. Nevertheless, the plans from OPEC to reach $60 per barrel raise chances for an extension of the collective production cuts.

    Iran, which has been exempted from the OPEC oil production cut agreement closed last November, said it is now ready to join the initiative as long as there is consensus among the cartel’s members. The remarks suggest that Iran has reached an oil output level that it is comfortable with for the time being. There are not, howev-er, any details as to how much Iran would be willing to cut off its daily output or from what monthly production level the cut will be effected. Iran produced 3.79 million barrels daily last month, down slightly from the 3.82 million bpd in February but higher than the 3.78 million barrels in January.

    U.S. crude production will likely rise in the months ahead as explorers added rigs for a 13th week, capping the longest stretch of gains since 2011 and pushing fuel prices down. Rigs targeting crude rose by 11 to 683 last week, the highest level since April 2015. The number of wells drilled has more than doubled since tumbling to 316 in May.

    China reported a 6.9 percent annual growth rate in the first quarter, much better than expected. It is also setting new oil import records by the month, dispelling fears that crude oil demand was slowing down. Imports hit a record high 9.21 million bar-rels per day in March, an increase of 11 percent from February. That spike is likely temporary, but China no longer appears to be the downside risk to oil prices at the moment.

    Global fuel market is in a waiting mood so far. The next steps for fuel prices de-pend largely on geopolitical factors: Syria and Korean peninsula, as well as on OPEC’s further decisions. The volatility on the market remains, and bunker prices may change irregular next week.



     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2017 August 24

11:37 Development of maritime robotic system for offshore application started in Russia
11:06 Shell’s FLNG facility Prelude officially enters into Lloyd’s Register class
10:25 Port of San Francisco seeks a new partner for shipyard lease
10:14 Brent Crude futures price up 0.04% to $52.59, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.08% to $48.37
09:59 Victor Olersky congratulates UCL Holding on the 10th anniversary!
09:18 Baltic Dry Index down to 1,222 points
09:04 DOF Subsea secures utilisation for several vessels in the Subsea IMR Projects segment
08:00 Seaspan accepts delivery of first 11000 TEU SAVER containership, enters into time charters for two 10000 TEU newbuilds and agrees to sell four 4250 TEU vessels
07:59 Alphaliner: Global container Volumes on the rise in H1

2017 August 23

18:36 U-Ming Marine Transport has become the constituent of the FTSE4Good Index
18:27 HMM’s cargo processing at Busan Port hit new record
18:06 IHC America wins a new contract with Weeks Marine
17:54 Steel cutting ceremony of Sirius Shipping’s newbuilding held at AVIC Dingheng shipyard in China
17:36 UK operator SMS Towage buys new tug from Sanmar Shipyards
17:19 Indian Navy commissions second landing craft utility ship MK-IV 'IN LCU L52'
17:06 TOTE Maritime prepares for next phase of LNG operations
17:00 Northwest Seaport Alliance July container volumes show 5 percent increase year to date
16:58 Ukraine’s water transport carried 0.3 mln passengers in Jan-Jul'17, up 37.6%, Y-o-Y
16:57 Panama Canal welcomes largest capacity container vessel to-date through expanded locks
16:55 Konecranes signs contract with Shenzhen Energy Group Environmental Protection Company for thirteen fully automated WtE cranes
16:42 Port of Virginia orders four new cranes
16:36 Cargo transportation by Ukraine’s water transport down 2.1% to 3 mln t in 7M’17
16:17 Van Oord awarded contract to construct Deutsche Bucht offshore wind farm
16:13 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from Asia to North Europe
16:00 Rustam Khalitov appointed as Director General of KNRG Upravleniye, management company of Caspian Energy Group (photo)
15:40 7th Fleet Commander relieved due to loss of confidence
15:14 Russia’s General Board of State Expert Review approved stages of Zvezda Shipyard project (Far East)
14:59 Russia develops digital platform for testing unmanned ship navigation
14:18 CMA CGM invests in the NYSHEX market and accelerates its digital transformation
13:15 KFTC announces decision concerning the violation of south Korean antitrust law by car carriers
12:43 Dmitry Medvedev signed amendments into regulations on delivery of caught and processed aquatic bioresources (document)
12:12 SaR operations continue in Singapore to find missing sailors of USS John McCain
12:00 LNG carrier Christophe de Margerie passed the Northern Sea Route for 6.5 days without assistance of icebreakers (photo)
11:23 MPA and IBM complete pilot trial on new cognitive-based system to improve maritime and port operations
11:04 Sovershenny, newest corvette of RF Navy's Pacific Fleet is open for visitors of the Army 2017 Forum
10:46 USC congratulates UCL Holding on the tenth anniversary!
10:25 Russian Chamber of Shipping congratulates UCL Holding on the first round number anniversary – 10 years in the market!
10:02 Brent Crude futures price down 0.35% to $51.69, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.33% to $47.67
09:44 TOTE Maritime’s LNG supplier gets the green light for LNG facility and barge-to-ship bunkering
09:33 Bunker prices go up at the port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
09:14 Baltic Dry Index down to 1,249 points

2017 August 22

17:57 Gazprom Export LLC congratulates UCL Holding with a decade of fruitful activities!
17:28 Gazprom Neft resumes regular bunkering of vessels with marine lubricants at the port of Ust-Luga (photo)
17:05 OOCL celebrated the christening of hull of OOCL Germany
16:36 Reconstruction of Beringovsky Port will let boost coal exports to 2 mln t per year – Beringpromugol
16:05 MAN Diesel & Turbo and AKA win order from federal Russian agency
15:50 Cuxport handles crane parts weighing several tonnes for the NYK Bulk & Projects shipping company
15:34 SGS Group opts for Aqua-tools ballast water test kits
15:04 CMA CGM announces GRI from Asia to Panama, the Caribbean and Cuba on PEX2 service
14:35 First of ten Stan Tug 1907 ICE completed by Great Lakes Shipyard for The Great Lakes Towing Company
14:25 Baker McKenzie and COBALT selected the legal advisers of the IPO of the Port of Tallinn
14:02 ABP’s Scottish ports raise funds for RNLI and Fisherman’s Mission
13:38 IMO and Liberia looking to enhance maritime security
13:14 Bunker prices are still high at the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
12:47 Dredging at two berths of Vladivostok will let the port accommodate large cruise liners from 2018 (photo)
12:23 Sea Port of Saint-Petersburg has increased financing of labour safety actions by 23%
12:15 Port of Los Angeles and GE Transportation build on early success of pilot with commerical agreements worth up to $12 million
11:59 Maritime security code under review
11:36 ABB’s Onboard DC Grid enables integration of energy storage on specialized hybrid wind farm vessel
11:24 Stealth Maritime Corp. comments on collision of Navy vessel and its Liberia flagged tanker