• 2017 April 21 15:09

    World's bunker market still in waiting mood, expert says

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    The Easter holiday break shut many markets for as long as four days this week and so has not given any chance for world fuel indexes to set up the firm trend: they were changing insignificant and irregular. Still the speculation that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will extend their six-month pact aimed at eroding a global glut is helping boost prices, while there is also concern that rising U.S. output will counter the reductions.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) has decreased slightly in the period of Apr. 13 – Apr. 20:

    380 HSFO - down from 306.36 to 299.21 USD/MT (-7.15)
    180 HSFO - down from 347.07 to 339.14 USD/MT (-7.93)
    MGO         - down from 527.14  to 519.28 USD/MT (-7.86)


    One of the main geopolitical worries for global fuel market is still Syria and possi-ble cancellation by Russia of its cooperation with the U.S. (and others) with regards to operational security in the area. The risk of a military confrontation between the different armed players in the conflict has increased. Several NATO countries, such as Belgium, have already postponed further air force operations in Syria.

    At the same time, the Arab countries also don’t seem to be totally supporting the U.S. attack on Syria. Iraq indicated its worries while the region’s leading military and political power, Egypt, has openly criticized the military action. This in stark contrast to most of the countries from Gulf Cooperation Council (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman).

    In the short term, the global oil market might not feel an effect of the actions in Syria. Syria’s position as an oil and gas producer is negligible. Since the start of the fights against Assad no real effects on global oil markets have been shown. Syria only produced around 25,000-33,000 bpd in 2014-2015. The future impact, however, could be rather strong, especially if there is a spill-over of the civil war to Jordan, Saudi Arabia, or Iraq.

    The IEA said in its latest report that the oil market is probably already balanced, although more data is needed. Oil inventories are falling in many parts of the world and have started to decline in the OECD as well. As per report, oil stocks in the Organisa-tion for Economic Cooperation and Development industrialized countries fell by 17.2 million barrels in March, although inventories were still 300 million barrels above the five-year average. In the coming months, it is expected that more substantial inventory declines will arrive and demonstrate that the oil market is no longer oversupplied. At the same time, the IEA downgraded its oil demand growth estimate for this year from 1.4 mb/d to 1.3 mb/d.

    Goldman Sachs in turn maintains its projection that oil prices will remain stable due to improvements in drilling technology that can keep a lid on prices. The invest-ment bank says that shale will also limit volatility and offers a five-year estimate on WTI at $54 per barrel.

    OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait are reportedly targeting $60 per barrel: at that price level, government finances would stabilize while it would still be low enough to prevent a resurgence of U.S. shale. However, the risk is that OPEC is underestimating the ability of shale to ramp up. Indeed U.S. shale output is already rebounding. Nevertheless, the plans from OPEC to reach $60 per barrel raise chances for an extension of the collective production cuts.

    Iran, which has been exempted from the OPEC oil production cut agreement closed last November, said it is now ready to join the initiative as long as there is consensus among the cartel’s members. The remarks suggest that Iran has reached an oil output level that it is comfortable with for the time being. There are not, howev-er, any details as to how much Iran would be willing to cut off its daily output or from what monthly production level the cut will be effected. Iran produced 3.79 million barrels daily last month, down slightly from the 3.82 million bpd in February but higher than the 3.78 million barrels in January.

    U.S. crude production will likely rise in the months ahead as explorers added rigs for a 13th week, capping the longest stretch of gains since 2011 and pushing fuel prices down. Rigs targeting crude rose by 11 to 683 last week, the highest level since April 2015. The number of wells drilled has more than doubled since tumbling to 316 in May.

    China reported a 6.9 percent annual growth rate in the first quarter, much better than expected. It is also setting new oil import records by the month, dispelling fears that crude oil demand was slowing down. Imports hit a record high 9.21 million bar-rels per day in March, an increase of 11 percent from February. That spike is likely temporary, but China no longer appears to be the downside risk to oil prices at the moment.

    Global fuel market is in a waiting mood so far. The next steps for fuel prices de-pend largely on geopolitical factors: Syria and Korean peninsula, as well as on OPEC’s further decisions. The volatility on the market remains, and bunker prices may change irregular next week.



     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2018 May 20

09:21 Hapag-Lloyd announces FAK rates from North Europe to Caribbean, Central America and South America West Coast
09:19 EU Ambassadors visit Peru’s largest multipurpose terminal
09:16 SEA\LNG bolsters its knowledge base with the addition of MAN Diesel & Turbo
09:13 Finnlines starts new direct service between Helsinki and Aarhus
09:11 Canadian Coast Guard selects ABS for fleetwide contract

2018 May 19

10:56 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from Asia to North Africa
10:01 CMA CGM announces PSS from Nigeria to India and Vietnam
07:50 Port of Kiel welcomes “Saga Sapphire” maiden visit
07:47 The “GRANDE HALIFAX” christened in Halifax

2018 May 18

18:00 Denis Manturov appointed as the Minister of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation
17:44 Port of Hamburg posts Q1 2018 results
17:39 Yevgeny Ditrikh appointed as the Minister of Transport of the Russian Federation (photo)
17:38 Seaspan accepts delivery of third 10000 TEU SAVER containership in four ship series
17:35 Prosafe extends standstill agreement with Cosco
17:17 Okskaya Sudoverf delivered Belmax 1, first non-self-propelled tank barge of Project ROB20
16:51 Special event on ports at IMO Headquarters will focus on single window, ports and logistics
16:35 Port of Hamburg receives ‘Best Global Seaport’ award
16:05 IMO begins scoping exercise on autonomous vessels
15:42 Brand-new jetty at Rotterdam LBC Tank Terminals ready for vessels
15:40 HELCOM group meets in Riga to discuss nutrients from land-based sources
15:39 Multimillion pound investment continues in Grangemouth, Scotland's premier port
15:38 India benefits from IMO training on port emissions
15:11 Nevsky Shipyard starts sea trials of medium sea tanker of project 23130 (photo)
14:44 Star Marine takes delivery of RAstar 3400 quartet
13:53 Ladozhsky Bridge in the Leningrad Region drawn twice to let PORT FLEET’s tugboats through
13:47 Eniram signs MoU with Arista Shipping to participate in Project Forward for developing new generation of bulk carriers
13:29 Statoil ASA changes name to Equinor ASA
13:00 Cargo turnover at inland water ways of Azov-Don Basin down 12.7% to 606,000 tonnes
12:42 ABS to provide class and certification services for the entire Canadian Coast Guard fleet
11:57 Astrakhan branch of Zvyozdochka shipyard launches rescue towboat for RF Defence Ministry (photo)
11:35 Huntington Ingalls authenticates keel of submarine Montana (SSN 794)
11:18 Akademik Lomonosov FPU arrives in the Kola Bay (photo)
11:03 UAE signs MoU with ITF
10:32 Throughput of port Kaliningrad in 4M’18 up 10% Y-o-Y to 4.71 million tonnes
10:30 Scorpio Tankers announces sale and leaseback agreements for five product tankers
10:13 Brent Crude futures price up 0.30% to $79.54, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.21% to $71.64
09:56 ZNT Yard launched the lead hydrographic survey vessel and lays down two more HSVs (photo)
09:17 Baltic Dry Index fell to 1,305 points

2018 May 17

18:05 Technava and Propulsion Analytics join forces for providing management solutions to the shipping industry in Greece and Cyprus
17:54 Throughput of port Taganrog in Jan-Apr'18 up 39.8% to 1.46 million tonnes
17:35 EUROGATE chosen as “Best Green Container Terminal Operator 2018”
17:19 Throughput of port Vyborg in 4M’18 up 22% Y-o-Y to 417,000 tonnes
17:05 Costa Group and Marseille Fos Port announce partnership
16:48 Throughput of Rostov-on-Don port in 4M’18 up 29% Y-o-Y to 5.5 0 million tonnes
16:35 Yang Ming wins Best Shipping Line – Intra-Asia Award
16:20 Throughput of port Primorsk in 4M’18 down 19% Y-o-Y to 18.10 million tonnes
16:05 ESPO congratulates seven Wadden Sea ports for obtaining EcoPorts environmental performance standard
15:37 Small-Mid Scale LNG Summit to provide industry solutions
15:34 Rimorchiatori Laziali takes delivery of two vessels from Sanmar
15:31 Konecranes Gottwald Mobile Harbor Crane for Nigerian river port
15:16 Maritime2020 to prepare shipping professionals for IMO Regulations
14:52 Throughput of port Vysotsk in 4M’18 is flat Y-o-Y at 6.19 million tonnes
14:49 Rolls-Royce and Finferries sign cooperation agreement to optimise ship safety and efficiency
14:28 Throughput of port Ust-Luga in 4M’18 is flat Y-o-Y at 32.59 million tonnes
14:05 NSW Ports introduces Australia's First Environmental Incentive for Shipping Lines
13:49 Lithuania and Poland to cooperate in defining the future transport budget of the European Union
13:04 CMA CGM announces GRR from Asia to East Africa
12:57 Autonomous maritime ecosystem to be created by 2025 under One Sea project
12:26 The port of Saint-Petersburg handled 19.31 million tonnes of cargo in 4M’18, up 16% Y-o-Y
12:04 Maersk Line recognized as the Best Global Shipping Line