• 2017 May 18 15:03

    Global bunker market: OPEC meeting is in focus

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    Global oil markets are still not stabilized. After a week of price shocks, with the expecta-tions that crude prices could be hitting the $40 per barrel mark soon, prices are up again. OPEC and Russia have agreed to extend the oil production cut deal until March 2018. The significant point here was the support for a nine-month extension rather than just an extension through the end of the year. The news immediately sent prices higher, although the rise was capped by yet another weekly build in the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) has increased slightly in the period of May. 11 – May. 18:

    380 HSFO - up from 286.14 to 296.36 USD/MT (+10.22)
    180 HSFO - up from 328.36 to 339.64 USD/MT (+11.28)
    MGO         - up from 503.14   to 507.21 USD/MT (+4.07)


    OPEC and Russia have openly discussed a potential nine-month extension of the produc-tion cut deal. The main reason for it is that the present cuts are bringing inventories down at a much slower rate than originally anticipated. As per some evaluations, even extending the cuts through December would only bring inventories down by just 722,000 bpd for a total reduction of about 120 million barrels. That is less than half of the 276 million barrel surplus that existed just in OECD countries at the end of the first quarter.

    Both: Saudi Arabia and Russia are sure that an extension through the first quarter of 2018 will do enough to decrease inventories, supporting fuel prices, but not boosting them so much that U.S. shale comes back even quicker than it already is. They will present their position at a meeting of OPEC and other nations that are part of the agreement on May 25 in Vienna.

    The OPEC/non-OPEC coalition is also trying to bring new countries into the deal, includ-ing Egypt and Turkmenistan. It is doubtful that some contributions from them – with a com-bined total output of 700,000 bpd – would significantly change the pace of adjustment, but their participation may add some psychological support to the market.

    At the same time OPEC boosted estimates for growth in rival supplies by 64 percent as the U.S. oil industry’s recovery accelerates. The forecast said production from outside the OPEC will increase by 950,000 barrels a day this year (up by about 370,000). The projection is four times higher than in November, when the group announced a production cut. The cartel also raised its outlook for U.S. production growth by 285,000 barrels a day to 820,000 a day. Non-OPEC nations pump about 60 percent of the world’s oil.

    So a nine-month extension could result in removal of around 1.8 million bpd from the market, making enough room to counter the expected 1 million bpd of additional oil from non-OPEC countries.

    Meanwhile, two OPEC members: Libya and Nigeria, which were exempt from reducing output because of internal problems, are boosting supplies again. Libya’s crude production has risen to more than 814,000 barrels a day as fields restart, the most since 2014. Nigeria’s 200,000 barrel-a-day Forcados oil pipeline is ready to export again after being shut down almost continuously since February 2016. It’s unclear whether the countries would still be exempted if the deal is prolonged.

    Iraq is another risk for OPEC cut deal. Through the first three months of the year, Iraq has made some cuts but has still not brought production down to its promised target (it signed on to cuts of 210,000 bpd). Meantime, there were comments from some high-ranking Iraqi officials that the country could ramp production up to 5 mb/d this year which would be well in excess of Iraq's promised limit of 4.35 mb/d.

    While OPEC is trying to balance the market, the price gains from its production cut deal added more confidence to the activity and spending plans of U.S. shale. U.S. production jumped to 9.3 million bpd as of end-April, with the EIA forecasting it to hit 10 million bpd in 2018. Now that prices have started going up again, chances are that the growth in U.S. production will continue and even intensify. A new Rystad Energy report said that even if prices fall to US$40, shale producers will continue growing production. There are plans of a combined capital expenditure of US$84 billion this year, an increase of 32 percent compared to last year. By comparison, the budget programs for international projects are seen up just 3 percent in 2017.

    And finally, OPEC made a statement that floating oil storage globally declined by a third in the first quarter of the year. The statement supports OPEC’s claims that the production cut has helped to relieve a glut. Earlier this month Reuters reported that there were 35 tankers with a combined capacity of 65 million barrels of crude staying in the Straits of Malacca in Malaysia – one of the main global oil shipment routes. However, as per other sources, the global supply had not dec lined. On the contrary, the figures suggested maritime supply, and more specifically OPEC supply, actually went up in the first quarter of the year, by as much as 700,000 bpd. The speculations around these figures may cap the potential rise of the fuel indexes.

    So for now there doesn’t seem to be a choice. It’s either to extend or to suffer oil back to the US$30s, which most OPEC members and Russia cannot afford. We expect global fuel market’s volatility to be continued until OPEC meeting. Bunker prices may demonstrate slight upward movement next week.



     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton

    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2017 May 27

15:56 US Commission meets to discuss regulatory reform initiative & ocean carrier alliances
15:54 Seaspan accepts delivery of 14000 TEU SAVER Containership
07:48 DNV GL releases the new issue of MARITIME IMPACT magazine
07:45 Yilport starts investments in Ecuador’s Puerto Bolívar container terminal by installing two mobile harbor cranes

2017 May 26

18:07 OOCL enhances Intra-Asia service network by launching the ITS and VJS products
17:48 Biofouling was on the agenda at the latest in a series of IMO workshops
17:40 Wärtsilä’s hybrid system increases offshore supply vessel’s engine efficiency
17:24 IMO treaty supporting free flow of international maritime traffic is the subject of a regional seminar in Bangkok
16:52 JSC “Latvijas kuģniecība” posts net profit of USD 0.16 mln in Q1 2017
16:00 Shanghai Maritime Court representatives visit WMU
15:33 Europort Masterclasses shape industry thinking
15:09 Press-conference devoted to new cruise opportunities held onboard Princess Anastasia in St. Petersburg
14:45 Passenger Port of St. Petersburg hosted business meeting with Royal Caribbean Cruises and Arctur Travel
14:11 Passenger Port of St. Petersburg BoD held regular meeting on 24 May 2017
13:36 Hydrographic boat of Project К 1100 Meridian launched at the port of Kaliningrad (photo)
12:58 MOL launches R & D on autonomous ocean transport system
12:27 Pacific Regional Search and Rescue workshop held in Auckland, New Zealand on 22-26 May
12:10 London will host 8th Maritime Salvage & Casualty Response on 13-14 September 2017
11:39 IMO Secretary-General Kitack Lim spoke at the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA) in Lisbon
11:04 Diana Shipping announces time charter contracts for m/v Astarte with Glencore and m/v Erato with Phaethon
10:43 Training with all-arms forces of RF Navy's Northern Fleet started in the Barents Sea
10:25 Brent Crude futures price down 0.60% to $51.13, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.78% to $48.52
10:06 Jacksonville harbor deepening awarded $17.5M in federal funding for construction
09:48 Indicative bunker prices continue going up at the port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
09:31 Navios Maritime Partners acquires five 4,250 TEU container vessels from Rickmers Maritime
09:14 Baltic Dry Index down to 918 points
08:06 BPA attracts SM Line to bolster cargo volume at Busan Port
06:26 NYK bulk carrier rescues fishermen off the coast of Peru

2017 May 25

18:30 Rostov Port Group partners with Donskoy Krepezh to acquire 80% of interest in construction company PROSPEKT
17:06 Panama Canal sets new record for largest-capacity vessel
16:17 BMT signs submarine framework agreement in Norway
15:02 RF Navy's Pacific Ocean Fleet detachment finished its visit to Jakarta
14:30 RF Ministry of Agriculture approves Strategy of sea terminals servicing fishing ships
14:15 Scorpio Tankers to merge with Navig8 Product Tankers
14:14 Norwegian Bliss' keel laying ceremony held at MEYER WERFT in Germany
13:37 NSAG joint venture wins contract to supply Integrated Platform Management Systems
13:21 Liability cover for Antarctic waters
12:40 New service for project cargo to the Arctic Ocean
12:39 DryShips announces delivery of its newbuilding Suezmax tanker
12:13 Cruise ship Costa NeoRomantica will make her maiden call at port Vladivostok on May 30 (photo)
11:39 Сore functions of London Protocol to participants at workshop in Accra, Ghana
10:55 Arctia strengthens its customer relations team
10:17 Gazprom Neft reports record net income for Q1 2017
09:46 Brent Crude futures price up 0.80% to $54.39, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.76% to $51.75
09:28 Baltic Dry Index down to 934 points
09:12 Keppel secures contract to build LNG carriers worth over S$100m
08:39 Nor Lines and Rolls-Royce sign landmark Power-by-the-hour service agreement
08:14 Wärtsilä propellers and shaft generator system chosen for two new RoRo vessels

2017 May 24

18:01 Finnish Business Community took over AEC Chairmanship at AEC Annual Meeting
17:55 Port of Hamburg’s total throughput up by 1.7 percent at 35.4 million tons in the first quarter of 2017
17:44 RAO/CIS Offshore to be held on 12 - 15 September 2017 in Saint-Petersburg, Russia
17:41 Piraeus Port Authority investment plans tabled at 4th Posidonia Sea Tourism Forum
17:37 Greece is open for cruise industry business says Greek minister at Posidonia Sea Tourism Forum
17:00 Hapag-Lloyd and UASC complete merger
16:26 Throughput of NCSP Group up 1.4% to 50.6 mln t in 4M’17
16:02 MOL starts initiative to develop enhanced operational support tool
15:37 VSM reports record number of merchant vessel orders received by German yards
15:02 Australia develops new blockchain security architecture TBSx3
14:35 Stolt-Nielsen Gas orders two small-scale LNG carriers, with options for three additional ships
14:02 Port of Oakland vessel calls to Southeast Asia up 50 percent