• 2017 June 15 15:41

    Expert says no visible upward drivers on the bunker market at the moment

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World fuel indexes have demonstrated downward evolution during the week, still been pressured by evidences of an ongoing fuel glut despite efforts led by OPEC to tighten the market by holding back production. The underlying factors for the price drop are the same as before: U.S. shale production continues to rise; inventories remain elevated; and the markets are concerned that the OPEC cuts are not doing enough to drain the surplus.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) also continued downward movement in the period of Jun. 08 – Jun.15:

    380 HSFO - down from 282.50 to 279.43 USD/MT  (-3.07)
    180 HSFO - down from 321.86 to 319,79 USD/MT  (-2.07)
    MGO         - down from 482.07 to 474.00  USD/MT  (-8.07)


    Major Banks have started lowering their oil price forecasts for this year and next. Goldman Sachs cut its Brent price forecast for this year to US$55.39 per barrel (minus US$1.37). It also revised down its WTI projections to US$52.92 a barrel (minus US$1.88). As per Goldman, the oil glut will return after OPEC’s deal expires.

    For 2018, it was JP Morgan that made the most drastic cut to its oil price projections, expecting failure of OPEC cut production deal. JP Morgan slashed its 2018 WTI forecast by US$11 to US$42, and for Brent by US$10 to US$45. Bank considers that the 2018 oil market balance now points to rapid builds in inventories which, absent continued OPEC support, should depress oil and fuel prices. On the other hand, U.S. crude output is expected to keep growing for several quarters due to lower breakeven costs and higher investment. The main conclusion is: if OPEC wants to keep the market balanced next year, they will probably need to extend the production cut to all of 2018.  

    The EIA  stated that the massive inventory overhang might last longer than it origi-nally predicted. It is also growing more confident that U.S. oil production will surge past 10 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2018 (would be an all-time record for the United States). The EIA also expects relatively unimpressive drawdowns in inventories this year, projecting declines of just 0.2 mb/d worldwide in 2017. But the most pessimistic point is that the EIA sees inventories rising again in 2018 by 0.1 mb/d.

    Saudi Arabia in turn predicts that crude markets will rebalance despite of U.S. companies’ drilling activity rises. The country doesn’t see any need for changes to the oil-cuts deal agreed on by OPEC and its allies last month in Vienna. At the same time, Russia is committed to doing everything it can to balance the market. It forecasts, that a deal among oil-producing countries to curb production and balance an oversupplied market will achieve its objective in the first quarter of next year.

    Nevertheless, a 10-percent decline in oil prices since late May could push traders to keep crude in storage. Shipping data shows that at least 15 supertankers are still staying in Southeast Asia's Strait of Malacca and Singapore Strait, filled with unsold fuel. While that is less than in previous months, it's still very possible that volumes in storage could easily rise. 21.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude came to Asia on tankers in May (down from a peak in February, but similar to levels in late 2016, before production cuts were announced).

    The severing of diplomatic ties by several Gulf States with Qatar became a move that temporarily rattled the fuel market. The initial reaction was that any tension in the Middle East is always supportive for crude and fuel. However, major effect of this diplomatic confrontation is likely to be felt in the shipping sector. Ships traveling to and from Qatar have to find an alternate refueling port, and LNG shippers will have to adjust schedules and routes. This will increase costs, and in the near term, may form some support to the fuel prices.
     
    Nigeria has presented downside risks to fuel prices. On Jun.06 Royal Dutch Shell just lifted its force majeure on its Forcados oil shipments (an estimated 250,000 barrels per day) which has been offline for more than a year. It means that Nigeria is set to add the equivalent of one-fifth of the size of the OPEC cuts back into the market. Libya also revived output to 820,000 barrels a day, from 618,000 last week, after restarting its Sharara oilfield.

    Threatening to undermine OPEC's efforts is rising U.S. drilling activity, which has driven up output in the United States by more than 10 percent since mid-2016, to over 9.3 million bpd.  American explorers added oil rigs for the 21st straight week to the highest level since April 2015: by 8 to 741 units.  Meantime, U.S. exports have spiked in recent weeks. However, higher levels of U.S. exports do not necessarily mean global fuel market is rebalancing: U.S. producers are simply taking advantage of temporary pricing differentials (Brent-WTI).

    China’s crude imports increased as well (averaged about 8.8 million barrels a day in May, up 4.8 percent from the previous month) as refiners snatched up cargoes to prepare for the end of seasonal maintenance. Net exports of oil products jumped 50 percent from April to 1.51 million tons. Crude demand has increased on growing need for transportation fuels and strategic stockpiling. Meanwhile, domestic output has stagnated as producers shut high-cost wells.

    Taken altogether, the fundamentals continue to look poor. The end result could be that oil indexes may get stuck in the mid-$40s in the near run, rather than gradually rising as pre-viously expected. There are no visible upward drivers on the bunker market at the moment. We expect bunker prices may continue downward evolution next week.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
     
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2017 October 20

18:31 Finnpilot Pilotage Ltd joins the ITS Finland network
18:10 Kari Wihlman appointed as Director-General of Finnish Transport Agency with effect from 1 January 2018
17:47 Rosmorport appoints Oksana Masyuk as Deputy Director for Economics and Finance of its Arkhangelsk Branch (photo)
17:19 Russian Railways's loading of export freight from ports increases by almost by 6% in 3 quarters of 2017
16:56 Scandlines Helsingborg-Helsingör expands capacity
16:28 USPA announced tender for construction of berth 1-z in Port of Odessa
16:03 Wärtsilä's asset and lifecycle management agreement lets GasLog concentrate on its core business
16:00 Wilson Sons Shipyards delivers SST-Aruá to SAAM SMIT
15:31 In 9M’17, TransContainer transported 1.31 mln TEUs, up 17.7% Y-o-Y
15:03 Otto Energy starts drilling of the ST 224 #1 well
14:29 Opening ceremony of Russian-Indian international Indra-2017 exercise held in Vladivostok
14:02 d’Amico International Shipping launches the first three LR1 vessels
13:30 Sea transport of Sevastopol carried 660,400 passengers in September 2017, down 3.2%, Y-o-Y
13:02 ICTSI orders hybrid RTGs for Manila flagship
12:44 Draft procedure for investment port duty assessment is available at federal portal for legal information (document)
12:22 Aker Solutions wins order for world's largest umbilicals system
12:19 APL starts new Korea China Straits service
12:05 LNG reloading station of Klaipėdos nafta applies highest safety standards
11:37 Major ASW ship Vice Admiral Kulakov enters the port of Alexandria
11:08 Zvezda Shipbuilding complex, Rosnefteflot and Taimyrneftegaz agreed to build and operate 10 Arctic shuttle tankers
10:43 Conference “LNG Fleet and LNG Bunkering in Russia”: registration is underway
10:20 Brent Crude futures price up 0.24% to $57.37, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.33% to $51.46
09:59 Innovative passenger catamaran Grifon presented in Saint-Petersburg (photo)
09:32 Bunker prices are slightly up at the Port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
09:14 Baltic Dry Index up to 1,582 points

2017 October 19

18:01 Record shipment marks ABP Ipswich and Glencore support of UK farmer
17:38 Arab Association for Women in the Maritime Sector launched in Egypt
17:15 Throughput of port Kaliningrad in Jan-Sep'17 grew by 17% to 10.17 mln t
16:50 Throughput of the port of Rotterdam up 2% to 351.5 mln t in 9M’17
16:39 Panama Maritime Authority holds a kick-off ceremony for the construction of the new Amador Cruise Port
16:21 Russian and Greek ships to participate in 190th Anniversary of the Battle of Navarino
15:59 Hartmann Group's AHTS fleet secures long-term investment
15:39 Throughput of port Vyborg up 15% to 1.09 mln t in 9M’17
15:13 Throughput of port Vysotsk up 3% to 12.91 mln t in 9M’17
14:44 Throughput of port Primorsk in 9M’17 down 8% Y-o-Y to 44.68 mln t
14:38 MABUX: Global bunker prices may continue upward evolution next week
14:17 Throughput of port Ust-Luga up 11% to 76.02 mln t in 9M’17
13:50 Bunker market in the Far East ports of Russia sees mixed price movements (graph)
13:25 Throughput of Big Port St. Petersburg up 10% to 39.48 mln t in 9M’17
13:02 TechnipFMC reaches an agreement to acquire Plexus’ exploration wellhead business
12:46 USC to transit to a new corporate management system
12:33 Knyaz Vladimir cruise liner ends 2017 navigation
12:31 Port of Fujairah and Dutch Port companies sign MOU
12:01 Prosafe updates operational results for Q3 2017
11:39 First vessel with coal shipped from Rosterminalugol to Portugal (photo)
11:20 Clean Marine receives a seven-system order from Inventor Chemical Tankers
11:08 Drydocks World recognized as the region’s best rig repair yard
10:54 Crude oil futures prices edge down 0.05% to $58,12 in London, in New York - 0.08% to $52,0 a barrel
10:41 Marine Institute CNIIMF to focus on LNG bunker market pricing at the Conference LNG Fleet & LNG Bunkering in Russia
10:08 Samsung Heavy Industries wins order to build LNG-FSRU
09:16 Baltic Dry Index edges up to 1566
09:08 Fincantieri starts dry dock works on Viking’s sixth ocean ship
08:16 Conductix-Wampfler’s LASSTEC Container Weighing System Earns OIML R51 Certification

2017 October 18

19:36 Experts to assess damage caused by tanker’s allision with Primorsk port’s pier
18:06 Scorpio Bulkers announces commitment for a new loan facility
17:36 New regular Ro-Ro service starts from Port of Koper to Japan
17:01 ABP’s Port of Ipswich welcomes Department for International Trade’s Export
16:31 Cammell Laird strikes ‘Teaming Agreement’ with BAE Systems in bid to build Type 31e Frigates
16:30 ABP’s Port of King’s Lynn helps support national infrastructure project
16:03 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from ISC to North Europe and Mediterranean