• 2017 June 15 15:41

    Expert says no visible upward drivers on the bunker market at the moment

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World fuel indexes have demonstrated downward evolution during the week, still been pressured by evidences of an ongoing fuel glut despite efforts led by OPEC to tighten the market by holding back production. The underlying factors for the price drop are the same as before: U.S. shale production continues to rise; inventories remain elevated; and the markets are concerned that the OPEC cuts are not doing enough to drain the surplus.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) also continued downward movement in the period of Jun. 08 – Jun.15:

    380 HSFO - down from 282.50 to 279.43 USD/MT  (-3.07)
    180 HSFO - down from 321.86 to 319,79 USD/MT  (-2.07)
    MGO         - down from 482.07 to 474.00  USD/MT  (-8.07)


    Major Banks have started lowering their oil price forecasts for this year and next. Goldman Sachs cut its Brent price forecast for this year to US$55.39 per barrel (minus US$1.37). It also revised down its WTI projections to US$52.92 a barrel (minus US$1.88). As per Goldman, the oil glut will return after OPEC’s deal expires.

    For 2018, it was JP Morgan that made the most drastic cut to its oil price projections, expecting failure of OPEC cut production deal. JP Morgan slashed its 2018 WTI forecast by US$11 to US$42, and for Brent by US$10 to US$45. Bank considers that the 2018 oil market balance now points to rapid builds in inventories which, absent continued OPEC support, should depress oil and fuel prices. On the other hand, U.S. crude output is expected to keep growing for several quarters due to lower breakeven costs and higher investment. The main conclusion is: if OPEC wants to keep the market balanced next year, they will probably need to extend the production cut to all of 2018.  

    The EIA  stated that the massive inventory overhang might last longer than it origi-nally predicted. It is also growing more confident that U.S. oil production will surge past 10 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2018 (would be an all-time record for the United States). The EIA also expects relatively unimpressive drawdowns in inventories this year, projecting declines of just 0.2 mb/d worldwide in 2017. But the most pessimistic point is that the EIA sees inventories rising again in 2018 by 0.1 mb/d.

    Saudi Arabia in turn predicts that crude markets will rebalance despite of U.S. companies’ drilling activity rises. The country doesn’t see any need for changes to the oil-cuts deal agreed on by OPEC and its allies last month in Vienna. At the same time, Russia is committed to doing everything it can to balance the market. It forecasts, that a deal among oil-producing countries to curb production and balance an oversupplied market will achieve its objective in the first quarter of next year.

    Nevertheless, a 10-percent decline in oil prices since late May could push traders to keep crude in storage. Shipping data shows that at least 15 supertankers are still staying in Southeast Asia's Strait of Malacca and Singapore Strait, filled with unsold fuel. While that is less than in previous months, it's still very possible that volumes in storage could easily rise. 21.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude came to Asia on tankers in May (down from a peak in February, but similar to levels in late 2016, before production cuts were announced).

    The severing of diplomatic ties by several Gulf States with Qatar became a move that temporarily rattled the fuel market. The initial reaction was that any tension in the Middle East is always supportive for crude and fuel. However, major effect of this diplomatic confrontation is likely to be felt in the shipping sector. Ships traveling to and from Qatar have to find an alternate refueling port, and LNG shippers will have to adjust schedules and routes. This will increase costs, and in the near term, may form some support to the fuel prices.
     
    Nigeria has presented downside risks to fuel prices. On Jun.06 Royal Dutch Shell just lifted its force majeure on its Forcados oil shipments (an estimated 250,000 barrels per day) which has been offline for more than a year. It means that Nigeria is set to add the equivalent of one-fifth of the size of the OPEC cuts back into the market. Libya also revived output to 820,000 barrels a day, from 618,000 last week, after restarting its Sharara oilfield.

    Threatening to undermine OPEC's efforts is rising U.S. drilling activity, which has driven up output in the United States by more than 10 percent since mid-2016, to over 9.3 million bpd.  American explorers added oil rigs for the 21st straight week to the highest level since April 2015: by 8 to 741 units.  Meantime, U.S. exports have spiked in recent weeks. However, higher levels of U.S. exports do not necessarily mean global fuel market is rebalancing: U.S. producers are simply taking advantage of temporary pricing differentials (Brent-WTI).

    China’s crude imports increased as well (averaged about 8.8 million barrels a day in May, up 4.8 percent from the previous month) as refiners snatched up cargoes to prepare for the end of seasonal maintenance. Net exports of oil products jumped 50 percent from April to 1.51 million tons. Crude demand has increased on growing need for transportation fuels and strategic stockpiling. Meanwhile, domestic output has stagnated as producers shut high-cost wells.

    Taken altogether, the fundamentals continue to look poor. The end result could be that oil indexes may get stuck in the mid-$40s in the near run, rather than gradually rising as pre-viously expected. There are no visible upward drivers on the bunker market at the moment. We expect bunker prices may continue downward evolution next week.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
     
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2018 February 21

19:06 Russia’s State Duma set to change tariff policy to lend a helping hand to inland water transport
18:07 ONE, OOCL and SACO Shipping use booking tool eBooking
17:43 Renovated Stena Line Terminal at Europoort starts operation
17:06 Project to map ocean floor by 2030 now operational
16:52 Rosterminalugol export coal terminal handles 3-millionth tonne YTD
16:22 Zelenodolsk Shipyard to host keel-laying of 11th Buyan-M class corvette, Feb. 23
15:03 Launching of RST27M Balt Flot 20 at Krasnoye Sormovo Shipyard slated for Feb. 22
14:14 NGO Shipbreaking Platform publishes list of ships dismantled worldwide in 2017
13:18 ATOMFLOT says Russia needs nine more icebreakers for the Northern Sea Route by 2025
13:01 Clarksons Platou collaborates with Maersk Line to provide shipping services in Egypt
12:43 Big Port of St. Petersburg imposes ice restrictions in the harbour effective as of March 7, 2018
12:31 Castellammare Di Stabia starts slipway works on the multipurpose amphibious unit
12:10 Rosterminalugol transferred over RUB 1.5bn of taxes to different budgets
12:01 Panama Canal hosts Cheniere Energy to discuss LNG’s Future at the waterway
11:25 MOL car carrier rescues castaways in the North Atlantic Ocean
10:53 Crude oil futures prices edge down 0.8% to $64,73 in London and 1% to $61,17 in New York
10:46 Sovcomflot and Shell ink time-charter agreements for Aframax LNG-powered duo
10:35 Vostochny Port obtains ISO 14001:2015 certificate
09:48 Port of St. Petersburg bunker prices move upward
09:26 Baltic Dry Index rises 2.76% to 1117 points

2018 February 20

18:37 Time is running out to register for the Dangerous Goods: New Requirements for Transportation Conference, March 1, 2018
18:31 Russian association of fishery businesses call to revise a 'fishing quotas per a keel' terms
18:06 AVANZA completes a successful trial with Daikin Reefer
17:38 The Maritime CIO Forume Cyprus 2018 to be held in Limassol, March 27
17:03 DNV GL issues over 50,000 electronic certificates
16:55 RIMS secured a further class approval from Korean Register of Shipping for the use of drones during surveys
16:39 Taganrog Commercial Sea Port spent $156 000 on environment protection in 2017
16:34 Wärtsilä and Maersk Drilling create a joint 25-year strategy for thruster services to increase uptime and reduce costs
16:04 Post-Brexit port health border disruption still a major concern for British ports
15:34 Goltens teams up with Yara Marine on SOx scrubbers
15:21 Taganrog Sea Commercial Port earmarked $74,4 to support social programmes in 2017
15:04 US Navy awards concept design contract to Fincantieri to evolve FREMM into FFG(X)
14:32 Port of Marseille Fos traffic up 8% in 2017
14:02 The largest vessel enters Busan Port since its opening
13:32 Carnival Fascination resumes year-round service from San Juan
13:20 Port of Kavkaz sees a 50% spike in freight volumes, to 1.98 million tonnes
13:09 Rosterminalugol coal exports reach 150-millionth tonne milestone
13:02 Partners start financing waste-to-chemistry project in Rotterdam
12:35 First foundation for the offshore wind farm Kriegers Flak installed in Denmark
12:18 Bunker fuel prices in the Far East ports remain firm
12:07 United Shipbuilding Corp: the floating co-generation plant Akademik Lomonosov is 96% complete
11:32 Rotterdam port diminishes the sale of bunker oil to 9.9 million m3 in 2017
11:27 APM Terminals Itajaí to double monthly volume
10:44 Crude oil futures price slides 0.29% to $65,48 in London, in New York gains 1.17% to $62,27
10:36 Sevastopol to host 6th Business Forum SIMBF 2018, June 6-7
09:49 Russian M100 product spot price gains last week to RUB 5,594/mt
09:30 Baltic Dry Index gains to 1087 points

2018 February 19

18:52 Russia’s Glavgosexpertiza gives nod to new phases of ZVEZDA Shipyard construction
18:05 Maersk Line increases FAK rates from Europe to West Coast South America, Caribbean and Middle America
17:05 Hapag-Lloyd introduces Asia – Middle East – New Asia Red Sea Service (AR1)
16:05 Maersk Line increases Reefer FAK rates from North Europe to Far East Asia
15:49 Iskes Towage & Salvage adds two more Damen ASD Tugs 2810 to its fleet
15:25 Maersk Line increases DRY rates from Russia to Far East Asia
15:02 The Russian Register of Seaports updates Port of Tuapse details
14:53 Nevsky Shipyard prepares the Akademik Pashin to test underway replenishment capabilities
14:26 Xeneta increases its data coverage by 161% in 2017
13:49 Rosmorport’s icebreakers assist shipping in the Gulf of Finland, escorted 17 vessels
13:12 GasLog reports financial results for 2017
12:01 GoodBulk announces delivery of Capesize vessel
11:46 Port of Mariupol freight volumes soar 32.3% to 455,860 tonnes