• 2017 July 13 16:07

    World's bunker market in a state of uncertainty

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World fuel indexes have demonstrated slight downward evolution during the week with no real firm trend. The prices are still been pressured by evidences of an ongoing fuel glut despite efforts led by OPEC to tighten the market by holding back production. U.S. shale production continues to rise; inventories remain elevated; and the markets are concerned that the OPEC cuts are not doing enough to drain the surplus.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) has been steady in the period of Jul. 06 – Jul. 13:

    380 HSFO - down from 287.57 to 286.50 USD/MT (-1.07)
    180 HSFO - down from 328.43 to 327.57 USD/MT (-0.86)
    MGO         - down from 478.50 to 476.79  USD/MT (-1.71)

    The group of world leading banks gave rather controversial forecasts of a further trend in oil prices. BNP Paribas slashed its forecasts for Brent by $9 to $51 a barrel for 2017 and by $15 to $48 for 2018. Barclays also cut its 2017 and 2018 Brent forecasts to $52 a barrel for both years from $55 and $57 respectively.

    Contrariwise, Citigroup expects crude oil prices could rise to US$60 a barrel by this year’s end supporting by growing demand and lower OPEC supply. The IEA also forecast a rise in oil demand this year: it may grow by an average 1.3 million bpd, accelerating from the 900,000 bpd in the first quarter. Production (the IEA’s estimation) was lagging behind demand at 96.69 million bpd in May. These reports suggest at least partial consensus that global oil demand is growing faster than production.

    However, the market still remains doubtful that OPEC-led production cuts will clear a global glut effectively as Russia and Saudi Arabia appear to be less committed than earlier in the year. It seems that Russia may oppose any attempts to deepen the oil production cuts as it may give the impression that OPEC and its partners in the deal are uncertain about its effectiveness in reducing global supplies. In such a case a deeper cut might pressure prices further instead of supporting them. There are some evidences that Russia is also against any further extension of the deal because such an extension will only make oil markets more volatile after it expires, when everyone returns to their normal output rates.

    Saudi Arabia in turn plans to export less: it is planned to cut shipments in August by more than 600,000 bpd, taking exports for that month to their lowest level this year, to balance a seasonal rise in domestic use. Besides, Saudi Ara-bia cut exports to the U.S. last month in an attempt to force USA to begin using oil from its large inventories, which prevent large crude orders from international mar-kets. However, the initiative ultimately failed when Iraq, OPEC’s No. 2 oil producer, began selling its heavy crude to American buyers as a substitute for Saudi Arabian grades.

    Anyway, no further oil output cuts are expected for the July meeting of the ministerial committee set up to monitor compliance with the OPEC-non-OPEC deal. The meeting will take place on July 24 in Russia.

    In this situation OPEC is thinking of putting a ceiling on the crude oil outputs of Libya and Nigeria, as rising production from these two OPEC producers exempt from the cuts is further complicating the cartel’s efforts to draw down oversupply. Nigeria’s crude oil production increased to 1.68 million bpd in May, up by 174,200 bpd over April—the highest level in more than a year—after the restart of Forcados loadings for the first time since October 2016. Libya, for its part, is reaching a 1-million-bpd production—the highest in four years—and in line with its target to have that output reached by the end of July. Militancy, attacks on oil infrastructure, and port terminals blockades have quieted in both African countries, therefore further increases in production are likely. However, the geopolitical uncertainty could quickly cut production levels once again.

    The diplomatic crisis in the Middle East continues. The four Arab states that are leading the boycott against Qatar vowed on Jul.07 to take new political, economic and legal measures and procedures after Doha rejected in full the list of ultimatums. The Suez Canal Authority—one of the busiest waterways in the world—said on Jul.07 that the canal authorities cannot ban Qatari ships from passing through the canal because of international treaties. But Qatari ships will be barred from using Egyptian ports and the economic zone in the canal.

    U.S. drillers went back to adding rigs last week: plus 7, marking a 24th week of increases out of the last 25 and bringing the total count up to 763, the most since April 2015. Although the EIA reported drawdowns in inventories, it also reported a rebound in production figures, dashing hopes that output was on the decline. As of today, U.S. oil production has risen over 10 percent since mid-2016 to 9.34 million barrels per day (bpd).

    PIRA Energy has predicted that U.S. crude oil exports will top 2 million barrels by 2020, reaching 2.25 million bpd. That’s more than what most OPEC members export. As of 2016, the U.S. average daily export rate was just 520,000 bpd, although in May, the average daily was 1.02 million barrels. Canada was the biggest market of U.S. crude exports, taking in 372,000 bpd, oil exports to China stood at 147,000 bpd, and U.S. crude exports to the Netherlands (number 3 in a line) came in at 108,000 bpd.

    All in all market conditions remain weak. While further upside could be expected in the short term amid the speculations of a cut in U.S production, gains may still be limited by the firm oversupply dynamics. We do not expect any drastic changes next week: bunker prices may continue swinging with no firm trend.







    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)

2018 March 17

06:48 Seatrade convicted for trafficking toxic ships

2018 March 16

18:06 Rijkswaterstaat awards Afsluitdijk project to Levvel consortium
17:36 HHLA Container Terminal Burchardkai handles new record ship
17:05 ICS publishes latest Flag State Performance Table
16:51 Vladimir Putin inspected the completed new road section of the Crimean Bridge
16:35 Wison successfully delivers the global largest single cracking furnace module
16:20 GTT announces the end of the test phase of its new LNG brick® technology
16:05 Fincantieri starts building of ultra-luxury cruise ship for Regent Seven Seas Cruises
15:30 Caterpillar Marine announces first European IMO Tier III tugboat
15:03 Throughput of port Kavkaz up 67% to 4.3 million tonnes in 2M’18
14:39 Port of Hamburg proves effectiveness in handling mega-carriers
14:05 Training for port facility security staff arranged in the Dominican Republic
13:42 Multipurpose Reloading Complex takes lead in the industry
13:20 Karachi Shipyards & Engineering Works delivers two Damen Stan Patrol 1605 FRP patrol boats to Pakistan Customs
13:17 Bunker prices continue going down at the port of Novorossiysk, Russia (graph)
12:51 52 icebreaker escort operations performed in eastern part of Gulf of Finland during 24 hours on March 15-16
12:28 Seaports of Russia’s Azov Sea Basin handled 16.77 million tonnes of cargo in winter 2017-2018, up 63.8% Y-o-Y
12:04 Latin America maritime cooperation centre launched
11:40 Vympel Shipyard laid down second armament support ship of Project 20360М for RF Defence Ministry (photo)
11:15 Vostochny Port JSC develops railway infrastructure under its Phase 3 project (photo)
10:52 IMO joined leading oil spill experts to discuss future issues concerning oil spill preparedness, response and restoration
10:27 Brent Crude futures price down 0.11% to $65.05, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.05% to $61.16
10:09 Panama Canal signs agreement with Association of Soybean and Corn Producers of Mato Grosso
09:48 IMO is looking at safety aspects of on shore power supply to ships
09:34 Bunker prices are flat at the Port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
09:16 Baltic Dry Index down to 1,150 points
09:03 Damen unveils Multi Cat Water Injection Dredger

2018 March 15

18:25 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from Asia to the Mediterranean
18:11 ICS releases latest Flag State Performance Table (with new criteria included)
18:05 Fincantieri will cooperate with Barzan Holdings
17:57 Throughput of port Kaliningrad in 2M’18 up 16% Y-o-Y to 2.32 million tonnes
17:35 Second Sanmar Voith Schneider Propeller tug joins sister in Israel
17:20 Throughput of port Vyborg up 19% to 197,800 tonnes in 2M’18
17:05 Seaspan acquires Greater China Intermodal Investments LLC
17:02 MABUX: global bunker market still in 'wait-and-see' mood
16:35 DP World announces strong financial results for 2017
16:16 Throughput of port Vysotsk down 5% to 3.06 million tonnes in 2M’18
16:05 ECSA and WSC call for the revision of the Reporting Formalities Directive to improve the efficiency of maritime transport
15:39 Port of Oakland imports up 14.9 percent in February 2018
15:31 Sanmar orders 42 Rolls-Royce thrusters
15:22 Coastal facilities and hydraulic engineering structures under FNPP project in Chukotka to be completed in August 2019
15:07 Port of Dover awards major contract for new Refrigerated Cargo Terminal
14:33 Yang Ming to launch new Japan-Malaysia-Vietnam direct service
14:11 Throughput of port Primorsk in 2M’18 down 32% Y-o-Y to 7.47 million tonnes
13:50 Throughput of port Ust-Luga up 6% to 16.59 million tonnes in 2M'18
13:25 VARD secures contract for the construction of one fishing vessel for Remøybuen AS
13:12 Throughput of Big Port St. Petersburg up 11% to 9.01 million tonnes in 2M’18
12:30 Paweł Jakubowski appointed as President of Polskie LNG S.A. Management Board
11:45 Freeport of Riga is getting ready for new cruise ship season
11:44 MOL announces delivery of the Beluga Ace, 1st next-generation FLEXIE series car carrier
11:23 34 icebreaker escort operations performed in eastern part of Gulf of Finland during 24 hours on March 14-15
11:00 Bunker prices are going up at the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
10:38 Marine Recruiting Agency and Corporate University “Norilsk Nickel” take on joint educational project
10:14 Brent Crude futures price up 0.05% to $64.92, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.11% to $61.03
09:49 Arctic Council will gather in Levi, Finland on 22-23 March 2018
09:17 Baltic Dry Index down to 1,169 points

2018 March 14

18:26 Port of Antwerp sets up maritime training institute in Brazil
18:06 Port of Oakland releases a new 5-year strategic plan
17:55 Baltic Workboats delivers ten more 15m Baltic wave piercing pilot boats to Denmark pilots stations
17:36 Fincantieri upgrades ultra-luxury cruise ship Silver Spirit