• 2018 June 1 15:16

    Expert says bunker prices may change irregular amid high volatility on the market

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World oil indexes have demonstrated steep decline in the beginning of this week on news that OPEC and its partners, including Russia, are considering a loosening of their production limits.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) also demonstrated downward trend in the period of May.24 – May 31:
        
    380 HSFO - down from 440.64 to 435,14 USD/MT (-5.50)
    180 HSFO - down from 479.07 to 477,07 USD/MT (-2.00)
    MGO        - down from 707.21 to 692.57 USD/MT (-14.64)

    Crude oil inventories in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development have fallen below their five-year average level. They are now 20 million barrels below that aver-age due to OPEC’s overcompliance with the production cuts.

    Saudi Arabia and Russia are in discussions about raising their production limits, perhaps add-ing as much as 1 million barrels per day to the market. The group could announce a change in Vienna next month. The idea could be to bring compliance back down to 100 percent, which would mean allowing members to produce more to offset Venezuela’s declines. Nothing is finalized yet and the talks will continue for the next few weeks. Fuel prices sank on the news.

    Russia has already confirmed it is going to discuss with OPEC in June whether it’s appropriate to gradually scale back oil-output cuts. Some of Russia’s largest oil producers called for more flexibility after almost 17 months of output curbs as the cuts have achieved their goal and crude prices near $80 a barrel are high enough. RF Energy Minister Alexander Novak plans to meet oil bosses to discuss the deal.

    While Saudi Arabia and Russia have reportedly agreed to increase production, reports suggest that there isn’t agreement from the rest of the OPEC/non-OPEC to go along. Several producers are opposed to adding some production back into the market, since higher production levels would presumably come from Saudi Arabia and Russia, at the expense of other countries who are already producing as much as they possibly can.

    India will continue importing Iranian crude despite U.S. sanctions. India is the biggest buyer of Iranian crude and imported an average 640,000 bpd last month, the highest since October 2016. There is also speculation that India could decide to settle its Iranian crude oil imports in national currencies to limit the risk of getting penalized by Washington. China, another major buyer of Iranian crude that has said it will ignore U.S. sanctions, may also decide to start using its nation-al currency to pay for the crude.

    Meantime, Russian and Chinese state-owned companies are expected to take business opportunities in Iran after European companies leave. China’s Sinopec is moving to complete a $3 billion deal to develop a section of the Yadavaran gas field that Royal Dutch Shell had hoped to secure. CNPC could take an additional $1 billion stake in the South Pars gas field from its partner Total. A series of Russian companies have also completed deals in Iran.

    The Saudi-led Arab military coalition destroyed on May 23 two boats of the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels threatening a commercial oil tanker in the Red Sea. Last month, a Saudi oil tanker was targeted by the Houthi movement off Yemen’s port of Hodeidah, sustaining minor damages and completing its course north. Yemen lies along one of the main global oil chokepoints in the Red Sea. In recent weeks, the conflict looks to have escalated, with Houthis firing ballistic missiles over Riyadh, in retaliation for air raids by a Saudi-led coalition. The Royal Saudi Air Defense intercepted at least one ballistic missile over Riyadh in that attack.

    Libya’s oil crescent on May 27 announced a maximum security alert over possible terrorist at-tacks in vital oil ports and oilfields. The African oil producer faced oil production outages last week, too, as bad weather caused turbines to stop working. Approximately 120,000 bpd was shut in as a result of that outage, at a time when Libya is trying to raise its production above the 1 million bpd mark. In fact, Libya’s recovering oil production has been a swing factor for oil prices since 2016.

    U.S. production continues to grow and exports are also set for a further increase: June shipments are projected to hit 2.3 million bpd, of which 1.3 million bpd will go to Asian buyers. U.S. crude is cheaper than both the OPEC basket and the Russia Urals benchmark. This is cause for concern in the cartel and in Russia, which has already made it very clear it would be happier with oil at around US$60 a barrel rather than US$80. Besides, there are concerns that U.S. port infrastructure won’t be able to handle much higher levels of exports. Export capacity data isn’t tracked and the exact capacity is not known, although it is thought to be around 3.5 million bpd.

    We expect global fuel market will be in a state of high volatility on the threshold of OPEC+ meeting on Jun.22. Bunker prices may change irregular next week.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2019 January 23

18:27 Planning for 2020 IMO's sulphur cap has already started
18:13 Eagle Bulk receives commitment for a new credit facility totaling $208 million
18:02 Port of Gdansk (Poland) throughput in 2018 totaled 49.03 million tonnes, up 20.7% Y-o-Y
17:40 Andrei Malyarov elected as Chairman of Severnaya Verf shipyard's BoD
17:19 RWE files acquisition of renewables businesses of E.ON and innogy with European Commission
17:03 The Board of Directors of Fincantieri appoints a second General Manager
16:51 Ice restrictions at the port of Arkhangelsk come into effect on February 15
16:37 USCG interdicts smuggling boat with convicted criminals aboard off Florida
16:24 Regulatory issues related to operation of seaport infrastructure facilities to be discussed at the 2nd HES and Dredging Congress
16:08 First discharge of LPG from Ichthys LNG Project in Japan carried by “K” LINE’s VLGC “GRACE RIVER”
16:03 CMA CGM to launch its Med Pendulum Service (MPS)
15:46 Ice restrictions at the port of Vyborg (Leningrad Region) come into effect on February 6
15:33 Nakilat – Keppel welcomes first FSRU at the Erhama Bin Jaber Al Jalahma Shipyard
15:28 MHI Vestas achieves final turbine installation at Horns Reef 3
15:18 Rolls-Royce completes €57 million upgrade of Rauma thruster facility
15:03 NYK announces delivery of new coal carrier for Hokkaido Electric Power
14:33 Port of Oakland reports more ships than ever plugging into grid
14:20 Throughput of Port Vysotsky up 10.7% to 7.89 million tonnes in 2018
14:03 Kiel welcomes the TUI Cruises newbuilding
13:45 Admiralteiskie Verfi shipyard lays down large freezing trawler of Project СТ-192
13:27 Coast Guard’s only heavy icebreaker arrives at Antarctica
13:02 Rotterdam as a circular hub for the raw materials transition
12:58 The Russian Federation accedes to passenger compensation treaty
12:51 New initiatives to strengthen Singapore as a global maritime hub announced
12:37 SCHOTTEL presents new mechanical hybrid propulsion solution
12:04 Port of Riga cooperates with Balarusian forest industry to further increase its timber cargo volumes
11:42 15 vessels escorted by icebreakers in eastern part of Gulf of Finland during 24 hours on January 22-23
11:16 OSG exercises option for second 204,000 barrel barge at Gunderson Marine
10:55 Maritime Security & Offshore Patrol Week 2019 to be held for the first time ever in Dubai, UAE by IQPC Middle East
10:37 N-KOM welcomes first FSRU at the Erhama Bin Jaber Al Jalahma Shipyard
10:20 Responsibilities for implementation of state programmes of the Russian Federation divided between Deputy Prime Ministers
10:06 Brent Crude futures price up 0.03% to $61.52, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.02% to $53.03
09:48 Aderco: Planning for 2020 has already started
09:43 Vympel Shipyard lays down yet another hydrographic vessel / buoy tender of Project 19910 for RF Navy
09:19 Baltic Dry Index is down to 1,036 points

2019 January 22

18:25 Elengy prepares the sale of access capacities to the Fos Tonkin LNG terminal for the period 2021-2030
18:05 Monjasa steps up as the 2nd largest local bunker supplier in the Panama Canal in 2018
17:54 Relampago practices skills with UAE Navy ship
17:35 CalMac takes over the tiller at Argyll Ferries
17:05 NYK gets the highest-rated ‘A’ for Climate Change by CDP Survey
16:42 RF Government proposed candidates to Novorossiysk Commercial Sea Port's BoD
16:23 Pilbara Ports Authority achieves a new record tonnage on a single tide at the Port of Port Hedland
15:56 Port of Rotterdam Authority and Rotterdam Port Promotion Council renew collaboration
15:46 ICTSI Subic hits milestone 200,000th TEU move
15:44 Growth seen in several sectors at ABP South Wales
15:28 KONTUR SPb ERT unit’s drills get thumbs up from Rosmorrechflot’s certification commission
15:22 First ship viaVerbrugge Terminals’ new permanent shipping line with South America docks in North Sea Port
15:00 Meyer Turku delivers New Mein Schiff 2 to TUI Cruises in Kiel
14:41 Jotun looks into expansion of ship coatings production in Russia
14:32 HHLA completes expansion of the container rail terminal Burchardkai
14:19 Bunker prices are flat at the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
14:02 North Queensland Bulk Ports Corporation opens the Port of Mackay for new bulk material trades
13:32 China Navigation to acquire the bulk shipping activities of Hamburg Süd
13:22 14 crewmembers of gas carriers which caught fire in the Kerch Strait confirmed dead, five missing
13:15 Fincantieri to build LCS 31 for US Navy
12:53 Gdynia, Poland to host Transport Week 2019 on March 5-7
12:31 MOL moves to establish 'Asahi MOL Tankers' for pool operation of MR Product Tankers
12:14 DFDS expands cooperation with Turkish Ekol Logistics
11:45 ABP invests £2.2 million in new agribulk terminal at Port of Ayr
11:17 BIMCO: only international action will stop increase in piracy