• 2018 June 14 13:47

    Global fuel market is waiting for some clarity from the Vienna meeting next week, expert says

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World oil indexes have had irregular changes with no firm trend during the week. Fuel market is looking into the global supply and demand picture to guess where the prices of oil and fuel are heading. Some are focusing on the loss of supply from Venezuela and a potential reduction of Iranian exports to justify the view that prices will be heading higher. Others are figuring that OPEC will reverse some of the production cuts in place and bring back as much as 1 million bpd to the market to offset any supply disruptions.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) added some points in the period of Jun.07 – June 14, but it is still too early to talk about any firm trend:
        
    380 HSFO - up from 427.79 to 429,86 USD/MT (+2.07)
    180 HSFO - up from 469.00 to 471,79 USD/MT (+2.79)
    MGO        - up from 669.57 to 678.71 USD/MT (+9.14)

    The markets shrugged at the historic meeting between President Trump and North Korean dicta-tor Kim Jong Un. Both sides hailed the summit as a breakthrough, with a pledge towards denuclearization, but as expected, there was a lack of even the most basic details on how they might get there. According to a report by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), Trump expressed his intention to halt U.S.-South Korea joint military exercises, offer security guarantees to the North and lift sanctions against it as relations improve. However, it seems that the summit had yielded only symbolic results and nothing essential.

    OPEC’s efforts to erase the oil glut and lift oil prices paid off as the cartel reaped higher revenues from crude oil exports in 2017. But the rewards from the cuts were not evenly split among the cartel’s members. The biggest percentage gain in the value of petroleum exports was recorded in Libya (up 61 percent on the year to US$15 billion). The second was Qatar (up 55 percent to US$35.5 billion) and The United Arab Emirates (UAE) was the third. The higher oil prices also helped most of the OPEC members (in particular Saudi Arabia, Libya, Venezuela, and Qatar) to improve their current account balances last year.

    Meantime, OPEC emphasized the deep uncertainty over the strength of demand for its oil just a week before contentious talks on whether to raise production. There’s a wide forecast range for how much crude the OPEC needs to pump in the second half of the year. With a range of 1.7 million barrels a day between the upper and lower estimates, demand could either be significantly higher, or slightly below, than OPEC’s current output.

    Besides, opposition to an increase in the OPEC/non-OPEC production limits continues to grow, with Iraq coming out against such a move. OPEC’s second largest producer said that the production cuts have not yet achieved the intended objective of balancing the oil market. The statement of opposition comes after Iran and Venezuela also called upon the group to keep the limits in place.

    The U.S. reportedly asked Saudi Arabia for higher oil production to offset Iranian outages, a request that was made before the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. The apparent sudden shift in the Saudi position shortly after the conversation has annoyed a lot of OPEC members.  The comments raise the possibility of a contentious meeting in Vienna.

    Venezuela has begun testing seaborne oil transfers to ease a severe backlog of crude deliveries from its main terminals, as delays and production declines could temporarily halt state-run PDVSA’s supply contracts if they are not cleared soon. The delivery method entails specialized equipment and training and higher costs for ship owners and customers. Tankers waiting to load more than 24 million barrels of crude. Venezuela’s crude exports fell 6 percent in May to 1.168 million bpd while Venezuela’s crude exports in the first five months of 2018 were 27 percent lower than in the same period of 2017.

    Meantime, Russia’s oil production (the world’s biggest) had risen to 11.1 million bpd in early June, up from slightly below 11 million bpd in most of May and well above its target production of under 11 million bpd as part of the deal.

    The European Union has vowed to maintain the Iran nuclear deal despite the U.S. decision to exit, and Brussels has pushed back against Washington’s attempts to penalize European companies from doing business with Iran. However, some European companies have already begun cutting business ties with the Islamic Republic. Iran in turn said that it would ramp up work on its nuclear program if the EU is unable to offer enough security to ensure European companies can continue to operate in Iran.

    The estimates for how much Iranian oil U.S. sanctions will impact ranges. But the mass flight of top American and European companies, and the early signs of a significant decline in purchases from refiners around the world, plus the difficulty in finding shipping and insurance, all suggests that the supply disruptions could potentially be at the higher end.

    The number of new rigs drilling for oil in the United States rose by one last week to 862, its highest since March 2015. That suggests that U.S. crude output, already at a record high of 10.9 million barrels per day will climb further, which will continue to put downward pressure on fuel prices.

    China’s May crude oil imports eased away from a record high hit the month before. May shipments were 39.05 million tonnes, or 9.2 million barrels per day (bpd). That compared with 9.6 million bpd in April.

    We expect that bunker prices will likely change irregular over the next week until the fuel market gets some clarity from the Vienna meeting.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2018 October 22

15:34 Nornickel’s Polar Transportation Division carried 2.4 million tonnes of cargo in navigation season 2018
15:10 ESPO congratulates Port of Valencia, Ports of Bremen, Port of Moerdijk and Port of Tangier for renewing Ecoports’ Environmental Standard
14:17 Sovcomflot named a finalist in four different categories of 2018 Lloyd’s List Global Awards
13:55 Onezhsky Shipyard delivered ice-class buoy tender named Fortuna
13:23 Pavilion Energy and BW ink deal for long-term charter of two Singapore-flagged LNG newbuilds
12:58 Average wholesale prices for М-100 HFO down to RUB 21,455 in RF spot market
12:36 LUKOIL BoD recommends interim dividend amount
12:13 Bunker sales at the port of Singapore in 9M’18 down 1.5% Y-o-Y to 37.46 million tonnes
11:51 Power of gender diversity on the agenda at Seatrade Maritime Middle East
11:32 Container throughput of port Hong Kong (China) down 5.6% to 14.69 million TEUs in Jan-Sep’18
11:09 Abu Dhabi Ports collaborates with MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company on international blockchain solution Silsal
10:50 Port of Singapore throughput in 9M’18 grew by 0.9% Y-o-Y to 470.49 million tonnes
10:28 Brent Crude futures price up 0.69% to $80.34, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.68% to $69.76
10:09 NYK PCTC receives special award from the Association for Rescue at Sea
09:47 STLC to obtain additional RUB 5.9 billion of federal subsidies in 2018
09:15 Baltic Dry Index is up to 1,765 points
09:06 ABS awards AIP to HHI’s standardized FPSO topside
08:08 DP World, UAE Region wins Terminal Operator of the Year at Maritime Standards Awards
06:22 ABS awards AIP to HHI’s deepwater FLNG hull

2018 October 21

08:54 20,000 TEU COSCO SHIPPING Sagittarius named in Shanghai
08:50 CFO Paul Smits leaves the Port of Rotterdam Authority
07:52 COSCO SHIPPING starts shipment of Toyota exhibits

2018 October 20

08:47 Boskalis, Van Hattum en Blankevoort and Mobilis construct deep-sea quay for the new HES Hartel Tank Terminal at Maasvlakte
08:10 Navios Partners announce filing of F - 1 for direct listing of Navios Containers
08:06 Maersk Line increases FAK rates for Northern Europe to Middle East and ISC trade
08:04 U.S. Navy contracts Austal to order materials for EPF 13
07:44 EU Commission launches the European Network of U-space Demonstrators

2018 October 19

18:42 ABN AMRO, Samsung SDS and the Port of Rotterdam Authority launch container logistics blockchain pilot
18:07 Stena Line's battery hybrid vessel completes its first month of operation
17:56 ABN AMRO, Samsung SDS and Port of Rotterdam Authority launch container logistics blockchain pilot
17:35 Port of Gdansk participated in the CILF 2018 fair in China
17:11 Gdansk pays a visit to Singapore
16:57 Testbed established for Internet of Ships Open Platform
16:48 Finland’s Water Transport Act aims to improve safety and increases preparedness for the future
16:26 World’s largest LNG bunker supply vessel “Kairos” started its voyage to Europe
16:04 KN will motivate its employees with the company's shares
15:42 New Falck training centre on the Maasvlakte officially openes
15:20 Seimas members visiting Klaipėda discussed benefits provided by LNG terminal
14:59 Ukraine plans dredging of 16.33 million cbm of material in 2019
14:37 UN agencies delivering on maritime security
14:15 Hapag-Lloyd starts new Red Sea service
14:00 Atomflot: shipments from Arctic LNG and Yamal LNG to be assisted by diesel and gas powered icebreakers
13:31 MOL's newbuilt LNG carrier "MARVEL EAGLE" to transport LNG from Cameron project in U.S.
13:11 NIBULON Shipbuilding and Repair Yard launches POSS-115 Project tug
13:05 BigLift Barentsz sails Northern Sea route for Pioneering Spirit
12:48 Glavgosexpertiza approves reconstruction of KSK grain terminal to increase its capacity to 4 million tonnes
12:22 Q&A with ImageSat International released ahead of SMi’s 4th annual Maritime Reconnaissance and Surveillance Technology conference
12:05 FESCO wins tender for supplying Indian Research Stations in Antarctica in 2019
11:43 Competition for designing and construction of LNG-powered icebreaker to be announced in late 2018 - early 2019
11:20 North Sea Giant turns to The Switch EBL technology
10:54 NOVATEK to place four FLNG facilities on the Northern Sea Route
10:31 RF Navy’s major amphibious ship Ivan Gren enters North Sea
10:07 Port of Vancouver closes 2018 cruise season
09:56 Brent Crude futures price up 0.4% to $79.61, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.35% to $68.89
09:38 Tackling maritime emissions - IMO rolls out ship and port toolkits
09:29 Expert forecasts more favorable ice situation on Northern Sea Route for 30 years ahead
09:15 Baltic Dry Index is up to 1,565 points
09:07 Hapag-Lloyd, CMA-CGM and COSCO enhance GEM service - covering Mediterranean with the Middle East / ISC
08:37 Samskip launches Netherlands-Italy multimodal rail service
08:07 SEA\LNG submits open comment on the draft supplemental environmental impact statement for Puget Sound LNG facility