• 2018 September 13 14:49

    MABUX: Bunker prices may continue upward trend next week

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange
     
    World oil indexes changed irregular in the beginning of the week but then turned into upward trend on concerns about outages in Iran and turmoil in Libya and Iraq, although that bullish sentiment was offset by ongoing concerns about emerging markets. Also, a boost for prices is Hurricane Florence—a Category 4 hurricane that is expected to hit the U.S. this week.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs), demonstrated irregular changes in the period of Sep.06 - Sep.13:
        
    380 HSFO - up from 439.00 to 448.79 USD/MT     (+9.79)
    180 HSFO - up from 487.14 to 494.86 USD/MT     (+7.72)
    MGO         - down from 710.57 to 709.43 USD/MT (-1.14)

    Barclays revised up its medium-term oil price forecast for 2020 from $55 to $75 per barrel, and for 2025 from $70 to $80. The investment bank noted several major changes since last year’s forecast, including ongoing capital discipline in the oil industry, cohesive market management from OPEC+, more aggressive sanctions from the U.S., and the catastrophic production de-clines in several OPEC countries.

    Hurricane Florence, which is moving towards the U.S. Gulf Coast, helped push fuel prices higher. Unlike the 2017 hurricane season that caused serious production outages in the Gulf of Mexico and at Gulf Coast refineries, this year’s hurricanes are thought to be fewer and weaker. But still, any hurricane approaching the U.S. coast will affect prices in the current volatile state of the market, with demand concerns adding to the already high geopolitical risk premium.

    The Trump administration is potentially moving forward on some $200 billion in tariffs. That would surely spark a response from China, and the back-and-forth retaliatory trade attacks could decelerate global growth. Also, China, specifically, is a major consumer of oil and one of the largest sources of demand growth, so a slowdown there could also undercut oil/fuel demand forecasts.

    OPEC and its non-OPEC partners hope to formalize a cooperative agreement at the next meeting in December. The move would be a way of institutionalizing the ongoing production cut agreement that began in early 2017, and provide a framework for indefinite cooperation.

    Iran’s oil exports are falling much faster than most forecasts had predicted. Banks are backing away from involvement in the trade of Iranian oil, and shippers are having trouble finding insurance for cargoes. European refiners, despite political support for Tehran in Brussels, have al-ready moved to sharply cut purchases of Iranian crude. Various estimates point to a loss of 500,000 bpd or even more than 1 million bpd. According to ship tracking data, Iranian oil and condensate exports fell below 2.1 million bpd in August—the lowest levels since March 2016, with crude oil exports at their lowest since January this year.

    Meantime, China imported Iranian crude at an average daily rate of 874,000 barrels last month. China has said it will continue to do business as usual with Iran, including in oil, despite a promise that Beijing officials made to a U.S. delegation last month that Chinese refiners will not increase their intake of Iranian crude further. As for how Chinese refiners would continue buying crude from Iran without attracting sanctions from the Department of Treasury, one way would be by using tankers owned and insured by the National Iranian Oil Company. Another, less public way would be to accept illegal shipments that Iran has suggested it could resort to under sanctions.

    Last week, rioters burned down several buildings in Basra, a major city in Southern Iraq and home to most of the country’s oil production.  Despite its oil riches, southern Iraq remains deeply unequal, which has caused resentment among the population even as international companies continue to ramp up production.  The violence adds Iraq to the growing list of unstable OPEC countries that has rattled the oil market.

    In another troubling development, several gunmen attacked the headquarters of Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) in Tripoli on Sep.10 and rockets were fired at the only functioning air-port in the Libyan capital of Tripoli on Sep.12.The renewed violence threatens once again Libya’s oil industry that has just been recovering from the attack on oil ports in June and a subsequent port blockade that reduced significantly Libyan oil shipments in June and July. As of the end of August, Libya’s oil production held at around 1 million bpd for several weeks.

    Currently, U.S. shale growth is one of the most overlooked supply-side factors, that will likely offset many of the losses from production problems elsewhere in the short term. As per IEA, U.S. tight oil production is forecast to grow by a record 1.3 million bpd to over 5.7 million bpd, due to increased investment in 2017 and 2018. OPEC in turn expects U.S. tight oil production to grow by 1.22 million bpd on a yearly basis, to average 5.91 million bpd in 2018, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The big question is for how long U.S. tight oil growth can offset declining production in other parts of the world.

    Goldman Sachs expects scrubbed high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) consumption to be a total of 1.0 million barrels per day by 2020 and 1.4 million bpd by 2025. According to the investment banking company, the global shipping industry burned a total of 3.3 million barrels per day of high-sulphur marine fuels in 2017. Scrubber orders from high-profile shipping companies in recent months has seen forecasters adjust initial outlook revisions. As per Bank, at an 80% compliance rate it is expected that the market can reach equilibrium at a distillate-HSFO spread near current forwards.

    We expect bunker prices will turn into upward evolution next week.



     

     

     

     

     

     

    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2018 November 16

09:16 Baltic Dry Index is up to 1,020 points

2018 November 15

18:03 Costa Smeralda to call on Cruiseport Rotterdam
17:54 Polish LNG Conference 2018 concludes in Warsaw
17:25 Port of Singapore throughput in 10M’18 grew by 0.7% Y-o-Y to 523.73 million tonnes
17:03 Maersk Line announces rates from Mediterranean to West and Central Asia
16:52 Expert says downward trend in bunker prices may continue next week
16:30 Nevsky Shipyard launched dry cargo vessel of Project RSD59 «Pola Anfisa»
16:19 "K" Line takes delivery of coal carrier “SHONAI MARU” for JERA Trading
16:04 ICTSI names new APAC head
15:22 Meyer Turku starts construction of Carnival XL1
15:03 Port of Antwerp signs an agreement with Enabel
14:34 Throughput of Ukraine’s seaports in 10M’18 declined by 0.7% Y-o-Y to 108 million tonnes
14:03 Pavilion Energy and Novatek agree to strengthen their LNG partnership
14:00 Damen hands over four FCS 2610 vessels to Allianz during ADIPEC
13:36 ABS awards industry’s first offshore facility cyber security-ready notation to Sembcorp Marine
13:23 NOVATEK’s Board of Directors to be elected on 18 January 2019
13:00 Zvezda shipyard started serial manufacturing of Aframax-class tankers
12:39 Residents of Riga and the Port outline a common vision for the future
12:04 Singapore hosts 10th APEC Port Services Network (APSN) Port Connectivity Forum
11:48 Bunker prices are still high in the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
11:22 Sea Port of Saint-Petersburg’s allocations for its development programme totaled RUB 413.5 million in 9M’2018
11:03 NYK promotes decarbonization through exploratory design of NYK Super Eco Ship 2050
10:51 ABS and HHI pioneer Cyber Security standard for new vessels
10:25 Brent Crude futures price down 0.18% to $66, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.36% to $56.05
10:11 OOCL introduces new Asia – South Africa direct services
09:58 A.P. Moller – Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag - Lloyd, MSC and Ocean Network Express plan to establish container shipping association
09:38 ASW Severomorsk of RF Navy's Northern Fleet completed a call to the Republic of Djibouti
09:16 Baltic Dry Index is down to 1,009 points

2018 November 14

18:37 Savannah achieves all-time record in October 2018
18:20 Sovcomflot concludes USD 149 million project credit facility with leading European banks
18:06 NYK and YLK jointly hold training program for staff from around the world
17:57 Organizers of “Dangerous cargoes: new transportation requirements” conference determined subjects to be discussed
17:36 Northwest Seaport Alliance adopts budget for 2019
17:07 DEME’s cutter suction dredger ‘Spartacus’ launched at the Royal IHC shipyard
17:06 Port of Rotterdam Authority wins 2018 ESPO Award
16:40 NIBULON’s fleet masters transportation of bulky cargo
16:38 Diana Shipping announces time charter contract for m/v Maia with Glencore
16:18 A.P. Moller - Maersk reports Q3 2018 results
15:48 1.348 million cbm to be dredged in Azov-Don River Basin this year
15:20 Stolt-Nielsen, Golar LNG and Höegh LNG announce joint $182 mln investment in Avenir LNG
14:56 World's most eco-friendly bulk carriers Viikki & Haaga operate in Baltic Sea
14:20 CHI Zhoushan is ready for LNG carrier repairs
13:37 DeloPorts published its operating results for Q3'2018
13:29 Damen Shiprepair Curaçao floating dock operational
13:15 Global Ship Lease announces new charter at increased rate
12:59 LUKOIL drilled second well in Eastern part of Yury Korchagin field
12:33 USC: aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov to be out of repair on time
12:01 NYK introduces its initiatives of green bond
11:55 Clean water projects receive $3 mln from Long Beach Board of Harbor Commissioners
11:28 Navigation on Neva arms in Saint-Petersburg to close on November 15
10:45 IMO holds training for OSR officials in Myanmar
10:21 Brent Crude futures price down 0.29% to $65.28, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.45% to $55.44
10:02 GTT notified by Hyundai Heavy Industries for the tank design of a new LNG Carrier
09:59 STX receives AiP from LR for LNG-fuelled 50k dwt MR tanker
09:40 Bunker prices at the Port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia returned to September level (graph)
09:17 Baltic Dry Index is down to 1,064 points

2018 November 13

18:06 Navios Containers seeks to list on a U.S. stock exchange
17:53 BIMCO adopts 2020 bunker clauses
17:34 CMA CGM to revamp its CIMEX 2K2 service
17:11 Nevsky Shipyard takes part in «Transport of Russia» exhibition