• 2018 September 13 14:49

    MABUX: Bunker prices may continue upward trend next week

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange
     
    World oil indexes changed irregular in the beginning of the week but then turned into upward trend on concerns about outages in Iran and turmoil in Libya and Iraq, although that bullish sentiment was offset by ongoing concerns about emerging markets. Also, a boost for prices is Hurricane Florence—a Category 4 hurricane that is expected to hit the U.S. this week.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs), demonstrated irregular changes in the period of Sep.06 - Sep.13:
        
    380 HSFO - up from 439.00 to 448.79 USD/MT     (+9.79)
    180 HSFO - up from 487.14 to 494.86 USD/MT     (+7.72)
    MGO         - down from 710.57 to 709.43 USD/MT (-1.14)

    Barclays revised up its medium-term oil price forecast for 2020 from $55 to $75 per barrel, and for 2025 from $70 to $80. The investment bank noted several major changes since last year’s forecast, including ongoing capital discipline in the oil industry, cohesive market management from OPEC+, more aggressive sanctions from the U.S., and the catastrophic production de-clines in several OPEC countries.

    Hurricane Florence, which is moving towards the U.S. Gulf Coast, helped push fuel prices higher. Unlike the 2017 hurricane season that caused serious production outages in the Gulf of Mexico and at Gulf Coast refineries, this year’s hurricanes are thought to be fewer and weaker. But still, any hurricane approaching the U.S. coast will affect prices in the current volatile state of the market, with demand concerns adding to the already high geopolitical risk premium.

    The Trump administration is potentially moving forward on some $200 billion in tariffs. That would surely spark a response from China, and the back-and-forth retaliatory trade attacks could decelerate global growth. Also, China, specifically, is a major consumer of oil and one of the largest sources of demand growth, so a slowdown there could also undercut oil/fuel demand forecasts.

    OPEC and its non-OPEC partners hope to formalize a cooperative agreement at the next meeting in December. The move would be a way of institutionalizing the ongoing production cut agreement that began in early 2017, and provide a framework for indefinite cooperation.

    Iran’s oil exports are falling much faster than most forecasts had predicted. Banks are backing away from involvement in the trade of Iranian oil, and shippers are having trouble finding insurance for cargoes. European refiners, despite political support for Tehran in Brussels, have al-ready moved to sharply cut purchases of Iranian crude. Various estimates point to a loss of 500,000 bpd or even more than 1 million bpd. According to ship tracking data, Iranian oil and condensate exports fell below 2.1 million bpd in August—the lowest levels since March 2016, with crude oil exports at their lowest since January this year.

    Meantime, China imported Iranian crude at an average daily rate of 874,000 barrels last month. China has said it will continue to do business as usual with Iran, including in oil, despite a promise that Beijing officials made to a U.S. delegation last month that Chinese refiners will not increase their intake of Iranian crude further. As for how Chinese refiners would continue buying crude from Iran without attracting sanctions from the Department of Treasury, one way would be by using tankers owned and insured by the National Iranian Oil Company. Another, less public way would be to accept illegal shipments that Iran has suggested it could resort to under sanctions.

    Last week, rioters burned down several buildings in Basra, a major city in Southern Iraq and home to most of the country’s oil production.  Despite its oil riches, southern Iraq remains deeply unequal, which has caused resentment among the population even as international companies continue to ramp up production.  The violence adds Iraq to the growing list of unstable OPEC countries that has rattled the oil market.

    In another troubling development, several gunmen attacked the headquarters of Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) in Tripoli on Sep.10 and rockets were fired at the only functioning air-port in the Libyan capital of Tripoli on Sep.12.The renewed violence threatens once again Libya’s oil industry that has just been recovering from the attack on oil ports in June and a subsequent port blockade that reduced significantly Libyan oil shipments in June and July. As of the end of August, Libya’s oil production held at around 1 million bpd for several weeks.

    Currently, U.S. shale growth is one of the most overlooked supply-side factors, that will likely offset many of the losses from production problems elsewhere in the short term. As per IEA, U.S. tight oil production is forecast to grow by a record 1.3 million bpd to over 5.7 million bpd, due to increased investment in 2017 and 2018. OPEC in turn expects U.S. tight oil production to grow by 1.22 million bpd on a yearly basis, to average 5.91 million bpd in 2018, unchanged from last month’s assessment. The big question is for how long U.S. tight oil growth can offset declining production in other parts of the world.

    Goldman Sachs expects scrubbed high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) consumption to be a total of 1.0 million barrels per day by 2020 and 1.4 million bpd by 2025. According to the investment banking company, the global shipping industry burned a total of 3.3 million barrels per day of high-sulphur marine fuels in 2017. Scrubber orders from high-profile shipping companies in recent months has seen forecasters adjust initial outlook revisions. As per Bank, at an 80% compliance rate it is expected that the market can reach equilibrium at a distillate-HSFO spread near current forwards.

    We expect bunker prices will turn into upward evolution next week.



     

     

     

     

     

     

    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2018 September 23

10:47 DEME unveils innovative nodule collector pre-prototype ‘Patania II’
10:33 Global Ship Lease secures additional charter coverage and adds Maersk Line to charterer portfolio
10:30 Hapag-Lloyd announces rates from Latin America to North Europe and South Europe

2018 September 21

18:06 Forth Ports wins prestigious award for community work
17:44 NCSP Group's cargo turnover for January–July 2018 totaled 82,351 thousand tons
17:28 First ISO-container ever loaded with liquefied natural gas at the LNG terminal in Świnoujście
17:06 Gibdock, RSP Systems and New Zealand fisheries choose LR
16:31 Outlook for marine cargo insurance challenging but opportunities remain for underwriters, says IUMI
16:04 Babcock ecoSMRT receives LR acknowledgement for ship application
15:09 Trafigura holds naming ceremony for first of 35 newbuild crude oil and product tankers
14:56 IBIA takes part in SIBCON 2018
14:27 Krasnoye Sormovo shipyard launches Pola Fiva, fifth dry cargo carrier of Project RSD59 built for Pola Rise
14:09 British International Freight Association fumes over sulphur surcharge
13:52 Ukraine’s water transport carried 0.5 million passengers in 8M’18, up 10.5%, Y-o-Y
13:31 Maersk’s regional carriers go to market under one brand
13:09 GE Shipping takes delivery of Secondhand Very Large Gas Carrier “ Jag Vasant ”
12:50 ABP aims for frictionless trade with blockchain
12:28 Cargo transportation by Ukraine’s water transport declined by 1.9% to 3.6 million tonnes in 8M’18
12:09 COSCO SHIPPING Tanker (Dalian) takes delivery of 319,000 dwt Mt Cosnew Lake
11:07 Odfjell finalizes sale of Rotterdam tank terminal
10:36 ABP promotes South Wales ports as cruise destinations
10:07 Georgia Ports plan 8 million TEU capacity by 2028
09:54 Brent Crude futures price up 0.06% to $78.75, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.14% to $70.22
09:35 Bunker prices are going up at the Port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
09:16 Baltic Dry Index is up to 1,396 points
09:03 APL’s Eagle Express service makes a solution for precise logistics management
08:07 Yang Ming to upgrade China-Vietnam-Thailand service
07:20 Iskes Towage names twin Damen ASD Tugs 3212 Mars and Mercurius

2018 September 20

21:17 Expert says production declines and geopolitical unrest may push bunker prices up
18:02 SITC holds naming & delivery ceremony for M/V “SITC TOYOHASHI”
17:54 Sovcomflot participates in Eastern Economic Forum’s business programme
17:30 Kurt Bodewig appointed as new European Coordinator for Motorways of the Sea
17:07 Port of Singapore holds annual multi-agency ferry emergency exercise
16:46 IAPH regional conference sets pan-African ports agenda
16:25 UAE to host Dubai Marine Insurance Conference 2018 on November 20-21
16:07 Governments of New Zealand and Australian announce fumigation requirement for import cargos
15:48 Sovcomflot is a Partner of the Second Conference “LNG Fleet and LNG Bunkering in Russia”
15:32 NYK product tanker rescues 28 fishermen off the coast of Colombia
15:04 CMA CGM announces GRR from Asia to West Africa
14:56 Admiralteiskie Verfi launches the Kronshtadt, diesel-electric submarine of Project 677
14:32 DNV GL releases autonomous and remotely operated ship guideline (UPDATE)
14:04 Port of Long Beach awarded $4.2 mln security grant
13:32 ABS supports innovative yacht design with dedicated guidance notes and software
13:20 Finnish Transport Agency: international seaborne transport volumes show significant boost
13:04 Port of Antwerp works on structural solutions to improve mobility
12:43 Arctic group of RF Navy’s Northern Fleet enters Chukchi Sea through Bering Strait
12:30 Wison receives AiP from LR for 300MW FSRP
12:04 Port of Rotterdam and Rönesans Holding sign agreement for petrochemical industrial zone in Turkey
11:49 IMO to start consideration of legal framework for low-flashpoint diesel
11:30 Gulftainer signs 50-year, $600 million concession to operate and expand Port of Wilmington in Delaware, USA
11:18 Fuel oil prices are going up the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
11:04 Green Corridor JIP delivers innovative bulk carrier designs for a low emissions future
10:55 IMO takes important step to facilitate use of methanol
10:30 HHI receives AiP from LR for a VLGC design capable of using LPG as fuel
10:19 Brent Crude futures price up 0.3% to $79.64, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.61% to $71.2
10:03 OpenIJ starts sinking operation of the lock gate chamber at the Port of Amsterdam
09:50 Passenger Port of Saint-Petersburg ("Marine Façade") welcomed MSC Meraviglia
09:34 CMA CGM announces GRR from India to East Africa
09:17 Baltic Dry Index is up to 1,373 points
09:03 Port of Rotterdam organises information meeting about the replacement of Maaskade quay wall