• 2019 February 14 16:03

    Expert expects uncertainty on global fuel market next week

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    Despite the crisis in Venezuela, which could shut in a lot more oil supply, global oil indexes have been mostly flat for two weeks. Market has weighed prospect of serous outages in Libya, Iran and Venezuela against the unfolding slowdown in the global economy.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs), has demonstrated slight upward trend in the period of Feb.07 – Feb.14:
        
    380 HSFO - up from 398.43 to 408.21 USD/MT (+9.78)
    180 HSFO - up from 442.14 to 452.07 USD/MT (+9.93)
    MGO         - up from 617.14 to 620.64 USD/MT (+3.50)


    Fuel indexes were pressured after Russia said there were no substantial talks currently taking place to establish an alliance between Russia and OPEC while a charter outlining open-ended cooperation could be discussed when the two groups meet in April. It was also added that it was highly unlikely OPEC and other oil producers would set up a joint structure due to the additional red tape it would create, as well as the risk of U.S. sanctions against monopolies.  Besides, while Moscow had committed to production cuts with OPEC to boost crude prices, it is unlikely to get any deeper into the cartel's cuts to risk its own oil market share in the long run. Reuters reported on Feb.11 that the OPEC and its allies had drafted a document for setting up a new alliance but had carefully avoided any mention of sensitive issues such as oil prices.

    OPEC cut its forecast for 2019 world oil demand due to slowing economies and expectations of faster supply growth from rivals, underlining its challenge to prevent a surplus even as it starts new production cuts. Forecast for 2019 said demand for its crude would fall to 30.59 million barrels per day, 240,000 bpd less than predicted last month. OPEC also said its oil output fell by 797,000 bpd month on month to 30.806 million bpd in January. That amounts to 86 percent compliance with pledged cuts.

    The U.S. House Judiciary Committee passed a bill that would allow the U.S. Justice Department to sue members of OPEC for manipulating the oil market. The legislation has bipartisan support in the Congress, although it’s not clear where President Trump stands. The so-called NOPEC bill would remove sovereign immunity, exposing member countries to antitrust regulation. If the NOPEC legislation were to become law, it could theoretically make it much more difficult for OPEC to set production limits with the aim of achieving certain price targets. It could also put in jeopardy the formalization of the OPEC/non-OPEC alliance with Russia.

    The U.S. said Iran’s oil customers should not expect new U.S. waivers in May, urging buyers to stop importing Iranian oil. Some of them, including the four major Asian buyers of Iranian oil - China, India, Japan, and South Korea - have recently resumed buying limited volumes of Iranian crude oil, after a period of around a month and a half in which they had to clarify how much and under what conditions they would purchase oil from Iran. Earlier last week, Iran criticized Italy and Greece for not buying Iranian oil despite the fact that they had obtained waivers to do so.

    Another risk to supply comes from Venezuela after the implementation of U.S. sanctions against the OPEC member’s petroleum industry in late January. It is expected this move to knock out 300,000-500,000 bpd of exports. Sanctions also prohibit U.S. diluents from heading to Venezuela. Without diluents, Venezuela cannot process its heavy crude and would be forced to shut down output. However, Russia’s Rosneft is reportedly sending some oil products to Venezuela to keep production from collapsing. As a result, Venezuela’s oil production may not utterly collapse, which could keep Maduro in power further. However, U.S. sanctions could still lead to mass starvation, exploding humanitarian crisis.

    Forces loyal to Libya’s eastern leader Khalifa Haftar have taken control of the country’s biggest oil field (300,000 barrel-per-day production) and say the deposit is secure and ready to resume production. Libya holds Africa’s largest crude reserves, and the lack of clarity about troop movements and security in the south had cast doubt on the nation’s plan to boost output to 2.1 million barrels a day by the end of 2021. Libya’s internal turmoil led the OPEC in December to exempt it from participating in global production cuts.

    U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators are meeting in Beijing this week to try and reach a deal be-fore a March 1 deadline when higher American tariffs on Chinese imports take effect. It was reported President Donald Trump wants to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping very soon, an optimistic sign for investors who are becoming increasingly concerned there won’t be an agreement. Without a comprehensive deal on a range of trade issues, the Trump administration has threatened to increase tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods from 10 to 25 percent. An increase in tariffs, could tip the global economy into recession, forcing OPEC+ to extend its cuts, although it would leave much more room to take a harder line on Iran. Such an outcome on the trade issue would be hugely negative for oil and fuel prices.

    Lower growth forecasts from the European Union also heightened fears of a global economic slowdown. The European Commission sharply cut its forecasts for euro zone economic growth due to global trade tensions and an array of domestic challenges. Euro zone growth this year would slow to 1.3 percent from 1.9 percent in 2018, before rebounding in 2020 to 1.6 percent.

    It was reported an increase in the number of active oil and gas rigs in the United States last week. The total number of active oil and gas drilling rigs rose by 4 rigs, with the number of active oil rigs increasing by 7 to reach 854 and the number of gas rigs decreasing by 3 to reach 195. The oil and gas rig count is now 74 up from this time last year, 63 of which is in oil rigs. The EIA’s estimates for US production for the week ending February 1 shows an increase at an average rate of 11.9 million bpd? - a record for the US - for the fourth week in a row.

    Outlook for the coming week

    We expect the uncertainty on global fuel market to continue next week followed by irregular changes of bunker prices.  

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2019 July 24

10:12 Huntington Ingalls secures U.S. Navy contract to install and support C4ISR systems
09:57 Bunker prices go down at the port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
09:43 MABUX: Bunker market this morning, July 24
09:40 Baltic Dry Index is down to 2,165 points
09:23 Brent Crude futures price is up 0.25% to $64.00, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.32% to $56.95
09:12 Two more Damen FCS 3307 Patrol vessels delivered to Homeland Integrated Offshore Services Limited of Nigeria

2019 July 23

19:02 Diana Shipping announces continuation of time charter contract for m/v Myrto with Cargill
18:04 Port of Southampton welcomes growing numbers of 'green' vessels
17:43 ASCO ships continue to work on Absheron gas condensate field
17:13 HII successfully completes builder’s trials for LHA 7
17:09 Arrival of bridges for Theemswegtracé, Port of Rotterdam
16:51 Nakhodka Trade Sea Port invests RUB 1 billion in construction of water treatment facilities
16:30 Bunker prices go up at the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
16:29 SGRE conditionally awarded largest U.S. offshore wind power order to date: 1.7 GW from Ørsted and Eversource
16:06 Zvezda to save RUB 200 million with its innovating welding technology
15:35 SUR recommends seafarers avoid employment on ships bound for Middle East
15:14 Siemens Gamesa will supply the SG 4.5-145 for its first nearshore project in Vietnam
14:07 Marine Recruiting Agency took part in event dedicated to compliance with labour legislation
13:43 LUKOIL produces over 15 million tons of oil at Vladimir Filanovsky field
13:20 ACO Marine completes the installation and commissioning of a Clarimar MF-10 wastewater treatment plant
12:56 Ferry Tõll reconstruction into hybrid ship
12:24 Muscat, Oman to host 2nd Gas & LNG Middle East Summit on 2-3 December 2019
12:00 Hapag-Lloyd announces rates from Indian Subcontinent & Pakistan to North Europe
11:58 GTT receives two new orders from Hyundai Heavy Industries and Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries
11:40 Barcelona to host European LNG Infrastructure Development Summit on 21-21 October 2019
11:22 Rotterdam to host 4th International Green & Smart Shipping Summit on 8-9 October 2019
10:58 Pella launched lead medium refrigerator trawler SKORPION of project 1701
10:25 RS: follow-up to the conference on the rules for fishing vessels
09:57 AEC at the 8th Symposium on The Impacts of an Ice-Diminishing Arctic on Naval and Maritime Operations
09:34 Baltic Dry Index is up to 2,191 points
09:33 MABUX: Bunker market this morning, July 23
09:19 Brent Crude futures price is up 0.17% to $63.37, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.11% to $56.28
08:01 Nexans qualifies high voltage cable to world record water depth to create power connection across a Norwegian Fjord

2019 July 22

18:06 Dorset’s Intermarine UK lands steel fabrication deal to increase capacity at Portland Port
17:58 Port of Zeebrugge volumes grow by 12.5 % in first semester of 2019
17:48 MS VASCO DA GAMA welcomed at Ostseekai for maiden call
17:19 Port of Kiel welcomed cruise ship “Marella Explorer”
16:55 ‘A British first’ cruise call for Port of Southampton
16:29 Damen to prepare Stad Amsterdam for ‘green ambassador’ role
15:47 Akademik Pashin tanker arrived at the port of Murmansk
15:14 Container throughput of port Hong Kong (China) down 8.1% to 9.06 million TEUs in Jan-June’2019
14:51 Port of Singapore throughput in Jan-June’2019 climbed by 0.6% to 315.17 million tonnes
14:28 JAXPORT sets container and auto records through first three quarters of fiscal year 2019
13:53 Throughput of port Helsinki (Finland) in Jan-June’19 fell by 6.1% to 7.14 million tonnes (table)
13:29 Bunker sales at the port of Singapore in Jan-June’2019 fell by 6.5% Y-o-Y to 23.7 million tonnes
12:56 Average wholesale prices for М-100 HFO up to RUB 17,248 in RF spot market
12:32 London to host 19th Vessel Efficiency & Fuel Management Summit on November 27-28
12:10 Turbine assembly begins for the WindFloat Atlantic project
11:55 Hamburg to host ACI’s Digitalisation in Shipping: Europe 2019 on October 9-10
11:24 NOVATEK closes Arctic LNG 2 transaction
11:10 APM Terminals Maasvlakte II increases rail service to major inland logistics hub
11:04 Seadrill secures contract for the West Polaris in Southern Asia
10:30 ASCO ships continue working on Absheron gas condensate field
10:08 Port of Oakland freight hauler testing two more electric big rigs
09:55 International Finance Corporation visited NIBULON’s facilities
09:36 Brent Crude futures price is up 1.63% to $63.48, Light Sweet Crude – up 1.08% to $56.23
09:32 MABUX: Bunker market this morning, July 22
09:19 Baltic Dry Index is up to 2,170 points
09:07 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from Asia to the Middle East Gulf
08:00 SCANEX Group offers video presentation of geoinformation services for maritime industry