• Home
  • News
  • MABUX: The expectations of a balanced fuel market have so far not proved
  • 2016 August 4 21:41

    MABUX: The expectations of a balanced fuel market have so far not proved

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange
     
    World fuel indexes continued firm downward evolution during the week. The global glut of oil and fuel still weighs on the market. Slower economic growth and high inventories of crude and refined oil products have also pushed fuel indexes down.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) declined in the period of July 28 – Aug. 03:
     
    380 HSFO - down from 215.93 to 209,36 USD/MT (-6,57)
    180 HSFO - down from 266.21 to 260.64 USD/MT (-5,57)
    MGO         - down from 449.93 to 438.00 USD/MT (-11,93)


    U.S. oil producers are continuing to return to the shale patch. Rigs targeting crude capped their first five-week gain since August, rising by 3 to 374 in the period ended July 29.  American producers had idled more than 1,000 oil rigs since the start of last year. It is expected that shale output to bottom early next year before returning to the record level set in 2015 of about 4.5 million barrels a day within two years. Industry data also shows that the global oil rig count for new production edged up in June for the first time this year, rising by two to 1,407, largely thanks to an uptick in U.S. drilling.

    The U.S. crude inventories rose 1.41 million barrels through July 29, keeping supplies more than 100 million barrels above the five-year average. Meanwhile, gasoline supplies fell 3.26 million barrels: gasoline production decreased while refinery utilization increased, which probably means they are already trying to maximize their distillate output.

    Russian oil output rose 1.8 percent in July, extending a run of year-on-year gains to 24 months. Production climbed to 10.85 million barrels a day. That was little changed from June and compares with a post-soviet record of 10.91 million barrels a day in January. Exports rose 4.7 percent to 5.28 million barrels a day in July from a year earlier. The forecast predicts Russian oil production will probably increase to 11.65 million barrels a day by 2018.

    OPEC’s crude oil output was disrupted in July by militant attacks in Nigeria and political disputes in Libya: the supportive factor for the fuel indexes. Output from the 13 established members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, excluding new entrant Gabon, fell by 80,000 barrels a day last month.

    Nigeria led the decline with a 70,000-barrel-a-day monthly drop to 1.52 million. The country has suffered steep crude output losses this year as militant attacks targeted oil infrastructure. While output recovered in June, it fell again in July following the disruption of supplies to the Qua Iboe terminal, which shipped an average of 342,000 barrels a day last year.

    Libyan oil officials have made multiple pledges over the past few years that the nation’s exports would revive. A resumption of the North African country’s production to 2011 levels would add about 1.3 million barrels a day to world supplies. At present two ports (Ras Lanuf or Es Sider) have reopened, but the fields that feed them have yet to restart. Market still remains sceptical that a regular flow of crude can be achieved in the near future because of damage to infrastructure at the terminals and also because of blockades by tribes and local factions the ports and oil fields. Exports from all Libyan ports dropped to about 226,000 barrels a day in July after reaching a six-month high in June.

    Oil exports from Iraq's southern ports rose to 3.2 million barrels per day (bpd) on average in July, up from 3.175 million bpd in June. Meantime, Kurdish Peshmerga forces in northern Iraq regained control of an oil field near Kirkuk after Islamic State militants overran the facility, setting fire to two storage tanks and causing crude production of 175,000 barrels a day to be halted.

    Iranian production gains continued, rising by 20,000 barrels a day to 3.55 million in July. Meantime,  Iran approved an outline for a new oil contract model, taking the OPEC member a step closer to welcoming foreign investment in its energy industry. Priority will be given to boosting production at jointly owned oil and gas fields. The country hopes foreign companies will invest as much as $50 billion a year. Iran seeks to reach an eight-year high for daily output of 4 million barrels by the end of 2016, with foreign investment helping it regain the position as OPEC’s second-largest producer.

    The recent development of the situation shows that the expectations of a balanced oil market in the second half of 2016 have so far not proved to be correct. We expect bunker prices may continue slight downward trend next week.

     

     

     

     

     

     

    *  MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2022 December 4

15:12 Global energy major joins The Castor Initiative - LR
13:29 The Port of Valencia activates an investment of 1,564 million euros for its new container terminal
11:42 Busole project awarded in the ESG Innovator competition
10:02 Hupac announces new rail connection Antwerp Combinant and Duisburg

2022 December 3

15:49 Schedule reliability continues on its upwards trend - Sea-Intelligence
13:07 Concordia Maritime announces delivery of sold vessel and continued review of its fleet
11:18 Trinidad and Tobago targets 4 Mtpa green hydrogen by 2065
09:34 SITC accepts delivery of M/V “SITC CHENMING”

2022 December 2

18:25 Queues to pass through Bosporus Strait worse than past year - Lloyd's List Intelligence
18:07 e1 Marine, NAVTEK partner to develop hydrogen-powered car carrier vessel - H2 View
17:59 IAA PortNews’ summary of past week news
17:40 MacGregor introduces an electric transloading crane to complete the electric crane series
17:21 Wartsila to act as system integrator for Binary Marine Installation Solution
17:00 Nuclear-powered icebreaker Ural of Project 22220 leaves Murmansk for the first operational voyage
16:52 The ports in Szczecin and Swinoujscie cargo transshipments up by 9.4 percent in Jan-Nov 2022
16:24 GTT receives two orders from Samsung Heavy Industries for the tank design of seven new LNG сarriers
15:53 15 empty containers at Keppel Terminal in the port of Singapore fall into the water due to squall 
15:46 Krasnoye Sormovo may be contracted for building river/sea class ships for Belarussian companies
15:29 Hyundai Heavy Industries Group to present 'ocean transformation' plans at CES 2023
15:07 Demand for Eastern Polygon traffic to exceed capacity by 70-80 million tonnes after 2025 - expert
14:58 Deal to resume Russian ammonia exports via Ukraine close – Reuters
14:24 Freeport LNG delays restart target to end of year amid US regulatory hurdles - S&P Global
13:55 FSUE Rosmorport supports 6th Hydraulic Engineering and Dredging Congress as its General Partner
13:13 Giant wave kills passenger and injures four on new Viking cruise ship - TradeWinds
12:56 Aker BP’s Board approves field development projects
12:31 Waiting list for civil ship repair in Arkhangelsk Region is 2‒3.5 years long
11:52 Indian port operator orders three Generation 6 Konecranes Gottwald Mobile Harbor Cranes to electrify bulk handling
11:35 LR authorised to carry out certification activities for non-SOLAS ships in Italy
11:26 A batch of reefer containers delivered to Vladivostok Sea Fishing Port
11:03 Singapore and Netherlands accept IMO Convention amendments
10:58 Accelleron launches new all-inclusive service agreement for auxiliary engine turbochargers
10:35 Sempra announces sale and purchase agreement with INEOS for Port Arthur LNG Phase 1
09:44 Winter-spring navigation season begins on the Northern Sea Route
09:40 NYK concludes investment and strategic partnership agreements with Pertamina
09:15 Rosmorport receives new certificate of conformity of Novorossiysk VTS

2022 December 1

18:07 Plans for increased gas extraction from Oseberg approved
17:56 Court confiscates FESCO shares owned by Ziyavudin Magomedov
17:23 ClassNK issues AiP for a dual fuel generator engine using hydrogen gas as fuel
16:57 New supply chain R&D project aims to revolutionise zero-emissions shipbuilding
16:35 KSOE wins 399.9 bln-won order for 2 ethane carriers - Yonhap
16:27 Eurochem held public hearings on engineering communications project for methanol plant in Leningrad Region
15:03 Unionized workers at the three shipbuilders of Hyundai Heavy Industries to go on joint strike - BusinessKorea
14:39 Adjustment is planned for construction schedule and cost of CNF11CPD ferries for Vanino-Kholmsk line
14:15 Road access to Brazil's busiest Paranagua port cut off by landslide - Reuters
14:08 MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 48, 2022
14:03 Anemoi renews Rotor Sail testing base with Port of Blyth
13:36 ESL Shipping sells agency business in Sweden to GAC
13:18 Oboronlogistics’ ships start operating on Kaliningrad – Great Port of Saint-Petersburg line
13:12 ONE to launch a new weekly service between India and the UAE
12:56 A new first regular train connection launched from the Croatian port of Rijeka and Enns in Austria
11:50 Russian Railways' network loading in 11M’2022 fell by 3.6%, year-on-year, to 1.13 billion tonnes
11:42 King Abdulaziz Port welcomes first ever Grimaldi RoRo vessel
11:13 Shell signs agreement with Alfa Laval to develop a Gas Combustion Unit for hydrogen boil-off gas
10:34 Singapore accepts amendments to the International Maritime Organization Convention
10:13 Stena Line chooses Nowhere Networks's solution for 32 of its ships
09:39 Draft law on transportation of Russian cargo by domestic ship owners can be temporarily withdrawn from consideration

2022 November 30

18:11 duisport and VITRONIC present solution for automatic detection of containers
17:54 New report identifies pathway for £75bn for UK shipping's energy transition
17:37 RF Federation Council approved amendments into Federal Law regulating passage of foreign warships across NSR
17:23 A.P. Moller - Maersk opens integrated logistics park at Port Qasim in Pakistan