• 2018 August 2 19:30

    MABUX says bunker prices may turn into a phase of irregular changes next week

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    It was mostly a quiet week for world oil indexes. Geopolitical tensions threatened both Iranian and Saudi Arabian oil, but a rising rig count and U.S crude inventories had erased those gains. The global crude oil supply picture indicates that the market is going to tighten further, while oil demand is still holding up pretty strong.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs), turned into slight downward trend in the period of Jul.26 - Aug.02:
        
    380 HSFO - down from 444.86 to 440,71 USD/MT (-4.15)
    180 HSFO - down from 491.79 to 487,43 USD/MT (-4.36)
    MGO        - down from 674.14 to 668.00 USD/MT (-6.14)


    Bank of America Merrill Lynch said that the downside risks to oil prices are relatively limited, suggesting that the oil market could see a supply deficit of around 400,000 barrels per day in the second half of 2018. Inventories may not be falling quickly anymore, but they aren’t rising all that much either. EIA crude stocks are now at their lowest level in more than three years, while for the OECD as a whole, they are right around the five-year average.

    OPEC’s oil production jumped to a 2018 high in July, as Saudi Arabia and its close Gulf allies boosted production. The production volumes were also increased due to the acceptance of a new member, the Congo Republic, which has been a member now for more than a month. OPEC’s crude oil production rose by 70,000 bpd from June to stand at 32.64 million bpd in July—the highest production level for 2018 so far. Saudi Arabia’s production in July has been 10.65 mil-lion bpd (up from 10.60 million bpd in June). The biggest drop in production was in Iran—by 100,000 bpd, as U.S. sanctions loom, serving as a deterrent for buyers. The other OPEC members with drops in production were Venezuela, Angola, and Libya. OPEC’s compliance rate dropped to 111 percent in July from a revised 116 percent in June, still above the 100-percent compliance rate agreed upon at the June meeting.

    Saudi Arabia halted shipments through the crucial chokepoint of Bab el-Mandeb last week after Houthi rebels attacked two Aramco tankers. Nearly 5 million barrels per day of oil volumes pass through the narrow strait between the horn of Africa and Yemen. As per some versions, Saudi officials could be trying to draw western powers into the war with Yemen by sounding the alarm on the threat to oil shipments, or it could be putting pressure on Europe to take a harder line on Iran.

    The big driver in determining the balance in the physical market will be how much oil from Iran is lost due to U.S. sanctions. And that means that the Trump administration will have a lot of influence over what happens next. Iranian officials said that oil prices would rise if the U.S. did not grant waivers to countries purchasing Iranian oil. As per Iran, it would be wrong to assume that Saudi Arabia could cover for the supply shortfall.

    Anyway, at the moment some Indian companies (India is the second biggest buyer for Iranian oil) already reduced or even cancelled orders for Iranian crude oil because they couldn’t obtain insurance for the shipment, due to U.S. sanctions. Besides, some big Indian refiners worry that their access to the U.S. financial system could be cut off if they continue to import Iranian oil.  The cancellations suggest U.S. sanctions are going be rather effective. Iran in response is trying to offer India cargo insurance and tankers operated by Iranian companies.

    Oil and gas rig workers conducted a 12-hour strike on Jul.30 at platforms in the North Sea operated by Total, in the latest industrial action by the employees. The dispute arose after Total wanted to place workers at the platforms on a three-week rotation system instead of two. A week ago oil and gas rig workers staged a 24-hour strike at Total’s oil and gas platforms Alwyn, Elgin, and Dunbar. Due to the strike, gas flows to the UK shores were disrupted last week, but stored crude oil was expected to offset any impacts on oil supply.

    As the U.S.-China trade war is escalating, China is looking to boost its economy with measures to expand domestic demand and promote investments, including in infrastructure. In the oil market, the Chinese economic and fiscal package boosted investor confidence that a potentially stronger Chinese economy would raise oil demand. This news became a potential supporting factor for fuel prices.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin has invited U.S. President Donald Trump to Moscow. Putin added that he is also ready to travel to Washington to meet Trump but said conditions need to be right for a meeting to take place. Russia and the United States also have plans for contacts at G20 summits and other international gatherings. Earlier it was announced that U.S. president wants to meet with Putin at the White House in 2019 - after the Justice Department’s probe into Russia’s alleged interference in the 2016 U.S. election has been completed. Anyway, global fuel market does not see any real impact from top U.S.-Russian contacts at the moment.

    President Trump boasted about a breakthrough in trade relations with Europe. He said the two sides would have talks on zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers, and zero subsidies on non-auto industrial goods. Trump also suggested that Europe would buy up American LNG. The market welcomed the easing of relations. But already, both sides far apart on whether or not agriculture should even be considered as part of the negotiations.

    Weekly U.S. oil production dropped by about 100,000 bpd to 10.9 million bpd last week. The country has added nearly 1 million bpd in production since November, due to rapid increases in shale drilling. In another worrying sign, the U.S. rig count, an early indicator of future output, rose by 3 to 861 last week. That was the first rig count rise in three weeks, pointing to signs of U.S. output possible growth already this week.

    Oil and fuel prices took a breather in the second half of July, but the price correction may have been a temporary reprieve rather than the start of another decline. We expect bunker prices may turn into a phase of irregular changes with no firm trend next week.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2020 July 9

19:03 OOCL receives Gold Award from the HKAEE for the fourth time
18:10 Aquila Power Catamarans announce a luxuriously versatile new model
17:55 Tallink Grupp’s vessel Sailor to operate on Paldiski-Kapellskär Route from Sunday
17:31 Bunker prices are flat at the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
17:28 Port of Rotterdam to start trial with PIN-free container handling
17:18 Damen holds keel-laying for Port of Auckland’s fully electric RSD-E Tug 2513
17:12 Diana Shipping announces time charter contract for m/v Selina with ST Shipping
16:44 "K" Line participates in JV for FPSO owning and chartering business offshore Brazil
16:23 Jan De Nul Group has started offshore installation activities in Taiwan
16:06 Port of Liepaja throughput in 6M’2020 fell by 15.6% Y-o-Y
15:48 Russia remains in Paris MOU’s White List
15:24 PD Ports submit response to national Freeport consultation
15:03 Khabarovsk Territory Governor Sergey Furgal detained by officials of Russia’s Investigative Committee
14:39 Aibel awarded Oseberg portfolio agreement
13:47 Ukraine is still on Paris MOU’s Black List
13:22 MOL announces joint development of energy-saving rudder
12:50 Container shipments on Russian Railways’ network up 15% in 1H 2020
12:17 Cargo transhipment in North Sea Port falls by more than 11% in first half of year
12:07 ABB teams up with Yinson on offshore oil and gas project in Brazil
11:20 FPSO operators could save £15 million per asset on maintenance
10:42 The CMA CGM Group commits to fight illicit trafficking in protected species and tightens its shipment control procedures
10:10 Unifeeder contracts We4Sea for fleetwide vessel performance monitoring
09:38 MABUX: Bunker market this morning, July 09
09:29 Oil market sees mixed price movements
09:13 Baltic Dry Index as of July 8

2020 July 8

18:11 Carnival Cruise Line sets ship delivery changes and related deployment plans
17:50 POWERGLOBE seeks for 10 years LNG vessel charter-agreement
17:27 Maritime partners unveil Autonomous Guard Vessel
17:03 THE Alliance announces COVID-19 response measures for August 2020
16:48 SaR operation in Singapore: man overboard incident
16:20 Throughput of Rostov-on-Don port in 6M’2020 grew by 10% Y-o-Y
16:13 Maritime industry calls for EU political leadership on seafarers
15:23 Port of Antwerp total throughput down by 4.9% in H1 2020
14:03 Wärtsilä introduces the system, designed to reliquefy boil-off gas onboard gas carriers and LNG bunker vessels
13:45 RF State Duna adopts a package of laws on privileges in the Arctic
13:12 PD Ports wins major pipeline contract with Global Manufacturer at Hartlepool
12:44 DCSA publishes standards for digital exchange of operational vessel schedules
12:18 Germany takes over HELCOM chairmanship
12:11 Seanergy Maritime announces agreement to acquire a Capesize vessel with prompt delivery
11:55 Russian Fishery Company fleet renewal to reduce carbon footprint by 50%
11:29 Pella Shipyard delivers patrol boat of Project 03160
11:04 Austal delivers first of two 118 metre trimarans to Fred. Olsen Express
10:43 Barcelona Cruise Port obtains the 'Safe Travels' Stamp, as safe infrastructures preventing COVID-19
10:32 Throughput of Rosterminalugol in HI’2020 grew by 10% YoY
10:04 ESPO says EU Taxonomy should align with already defined sectoral sustainability criteria
09:40 Oil prices continue decreasing
09:37 MABUX: Bunker market this morning, July 08
09:23 Bunker prices rose at the Port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
09:08 Baltic Dry Index as of July 7

2020 July 7

18:06 ZIM unveils new digital services
17:49 Great Arctic Regatta started in Saint Petersburg
17:27 Crude exports via Kozmino in HI’2020 grew by 5% YoY
17:02 Deepsea Atlantic drilling rig returning to Johan Sverdrup
16:35 Optimarin successfully completes IMO G8 and USCG test programme
16:12 Alfa Laval takes its service offer to the next level through remote service guidance
15:56 New ferry line Baltic Link launched at the port of Riga
15:28 RF Government allocates RUB 320 million to subsidize shipping companies
15:02 ABP delivers project cargo using North Lincolnshire’s waterways
14:32 Air Liquide and the Port of Rotterdam Authority launch initiative for hydrogen road transport
14:02 Konecranes to deliver mobile harbor crane to new terminal in Trieste