• 2018 September 6 15:51

    Bunker prices may continue moderate upward trend next week, expert says

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange
     
    World oil indexes have climbed 10 percent in the past two weeks but turned into slight down-ward trend yesterday. The global oil market is now two months away from seeing substantial supply losses from Iran due to sanctions. Indeed, the declines are already underway, raising concerns about market tightness.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs), changed insignificant and irregular in the period of Aug.30 – Sep.06:
        
    380 HSFO - down from 443.07 to 439.29 USD/MT (-3.78)
    180 HSFO - down from 492.57 to 487.43 USD/MT (-5.14)
    MGO        - up from 699.36 to 709.29 USD/MT     (+9.93)

    OPEC oil output has risen last month to a 2018 high as Libyan production recovered and Iraq's southern exports hit a record. Cartel has pumped 32.79 million barrels per day in August, up 220,000 bpd from July's revised level and the highest this year. Even so, OPEC's adherence with supply targets has actually risen to 120 percent in August from a revised 117 percent in July, because extra barrels from Saudi and others did not fully offset losses in Iran and declining output in Venezuela and Angola.  

    The biggest increase in supplies last month has come from Libya, whose output remains volatile due to unrest. Production at the Sharara oilfield, the country's largest, increased after the restart of a control station that had been closed due to the kidnapping of two workers, and other fields also pumped more.  The second-largest increase came from Iraq, where southern exports reached a record high. Shipments also increased from the north, leaving Iraq as OPEC's least compliant member in August.

    Among countries with lower output, the biggest drop of 150,000 bpd was in Iran. Exports fell as returning U.S. sanctions discouraged companies from buying the country's oil. Production also slipped in Venezuela, where the oil industry is starved of funds because of economic crisis, and in Angola due to natural decline at oilfields.

    Meantime, OPEC and non-OPEC countries are considering ways to formalize their cooperation later this year, eyeing a charter that would extend their coordination on stabilizing the oil market. Under the charter, ministers would meet once a year and technical experts would meet twice a year. The coalition would meet in Vienna and would be hosted by OPEC, but would remain a separate entity.

    U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to withdraw from the World Trade Organization – another step in a deepening dispute between the United States and its major trading partners. Such a move would undermine one of the foundations of the global trading system, which the United States was instrumental in creating. Markets are worried that rising trade barriers between the world’s major economies will drag on global growth and, by extension, erode energy demand.

    The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said last week that Iran has continued to comply with the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal, despite the withdrawal of the U.S. from the accord. The IAEA said Iran was honouring its commitments to the deal – specifically, to limit stockpiles of nuclear materials and to grant access to IAEA inspectors. There were no areas in which Iran breached the deal.

    Nevertheless, U.S. sanctions on Iran's energy sector will come into force on Nov. 4, although the country's crude oil and condensate exports are already expected to have fallen to a 16-month low in August. The United States wants to force buyers of Iranian oil to cut their imports from OPEC's third-largest producer to nothing, after an international nuclear deal between the two nations was dissolved. There is a concern that Asian importers' demand for crude oil declines.

    Venezuela’s state oil firm PDVSA has said that it signed a US$430 million joint service agreement with seven companies that would help it increase its crude oil production by 641,000 bar-els per day. This is not the first time that Venezuela has claimed it has plans to boost its production. Meantime, Venezuela’s oil production in July dropped to below the 1.3-million-bpd mark—at 1.278 million bpd, plunging 47,700 bpd from June. This compares with an average of 2.154 million bpd in 2016, and an average of 1.911 million bpd in 2017. Besides, a Greek-flagged ship carrying naphtha collided last week with the terminal run by PDVSA, which could reduce capacity of the terminal by up to 425,000 bpd in September.

    The Trump administration is considering moving forward with the proposed $200 billion in tariffs on China when the public comment period ended on September 6. The move would be a significant escalation of the trade war and present a serious downside risk to the global economy and to China’s oil demand. Retaliatory tariffs would be expected, with U.S. exports of crude oil and LNG likely on the target list.

    Despite reports last week that suggested that U.S. oil production fell in June, the EIA said that output rose by 231,000 bpd in June compared to a month earlier. Production stood at 10.674 million barrels per day, dispelling fears that U.S. shale output was grinding to a halt because of pipeline problems. It was also reported a 4-rig increase to the number of active oil and gas rigs (2+2) in the United States last week. The oil and gas rig count is now 105 up from this time last year.

    It has been estimated that the new IMO rules will apply to 3.5 million barrels per day of high-sulfur fuel oil, although post combustion gas scrubbers may allow some vessels to continue using the high-sulfur fuel. Most marine vessels will have to switch to cleaner distillate fuels like low-sulfur diesel, which will increase demand significantly. Besides, the new regulations will increase the cost to produce marine fuel, and it will again put upward pressure on the price of sweet crudes and downward pressure on sour crudes. It is also possible that there will be insufficient supplies when the new specifications come into effect, and that diesel prices are set to rise.

    We expect bunker prices will continue moderate upward trend next week.

     

     

     

     

     

     

    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2020 September 24

14:02 Fincantieri starts dry dock works for experimental vessel Zeus
13:40 Freeport of Riga Authority signs Declaration of Cooperation with Port of Shenzhen
13:21 IMO celebrates World Maritime Day 2020
13:08 Total and MOL officially name the world’s largest LNG bunker vessel
12:48 Bunker prices decrease in the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
12:25 ZIM launches new China-Australia Express Line
12:11 Inmarsat Fleet Lte service coverage extended to Gulf of Mexico following successful trials with V.Ships Offshore
11:32 Ships of RF Navy’s Black Sea Fleet take part in "Kavkaz-2020" maneuvers
11:14 Port of Trelleborg offers their shipping customers reliable and fast internet with Nowhere Networks
11:13 "Tatarstan" missile ship of RF Navy’s Caspian Flotilla involved in "Kavkaz-2020" maneuvers
10:09 CTI-Maritec receives DNV GL approval for ballast water testing
09:57 Muuga freight station of Rail Baltica is to be designed by SWECO Projekt AS
09:36 MPC Container Ships ASA announces appointment of new CFO
09:29 Oil prices decrease amid concern over demand/supply imbalance
09:11 Baltic Dry Index as of September 23
08:40 MABUX: Bunker market this morning, Sept 24

2020 September 23

18:15 HMM opens Fleet Control Centre
17:35 Stena develops a solution to use recycled batteries in charging stations at port
17:05 Philippine Ports Authority COVID-19 Molecular Testing Center for seafarers now operational
16:42 British Ports responds to reasonable worst-case scenario Brexit assumptions
16:17 Vestdavit wins contract to supply six Australian Navy patrol boats
16:03 ABB powers P&O super-ferries towards new sustainable transport era
15:43 Royal Niestern Sander orders SCHOTTEL thrusters for world’s first shallow-draught ice-breaking walk-to-work vessel
15:25 FESCO’s Board of Directors elected new Management Board
15:03 Kalmar’s fuel-efficient terminal tractor solutions selected by Yilport for fleet expansion at Puerto Bolívar and Gävle container terminals
14:47 RF Government to revise comprehensive plan for upgrading and expanding core infrastructure
14:30 U.S. Coast Guard awards four more fast response cutters to Bollinger Shipyards
14:01 ESPO expresses commitment of European ports to play their part in helping shipping sector decarbonise
13:28 Travelling by ferry between Finland and Sweden is now permitted without restrictions
13:19 Damen delivers ASD Tug 2810 to Thomas Service Maritimes
13:02 Van Oord’s Deep Dig-It trencher buries cables to 5,5 metres depth for offshore grid connection
12:44 Nakhodka Shipyard launched two self-propelled freight/passenger barges ordered by Kamchatka Transport Ministry
12:15 Construction of LNG transshipment facility in Kamchatka put under special control of RF Government
12:01 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from Asia to North Africa and to the Mediterranean
11:53 Maersk partners with IB Cargo to offer tailored logistics solutions for IKEA Supply AG in Romania
11:09 Konecranes wins Automation Service Contract in Indonesia
10:51 Bunker prices increase in the Port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
10:32 IAA PortNews offers photos from farewell ceremony for Project 22220 icebreaker Arktika leaving for Murmansk
10:13 BlueWater Reporting: Asia-South America trades sees high demand, equipment shortages
10:00 RF Government approves new NSR navigation rules
09:41 Oil prices decrease amid information about growing US reserves
09:29 Maritime Safety Committee adopts resolution on Recommended action to facilitate ship crew change
09:26 Baltic Dry Index as of September 22
09:12 MABUX: Bunker market this morning, Sept 23
08:48 MPA and SMI launched a joint call for proposals on the electrification of harbourcraft in the port of Singapore

2020 September 22

18:24 FESCO launches new maritime service from ports of China and USA to Chukotka
18:06 Aker Solutions wins electrification work for Lundin Energy Norway
17:49 Onezhsky Shipyard launches yet another self-propelled hopper barge of Project NV-600
17:36 DNV GL – Maritime releases the fourth edition of its Maritime Forecast to 2050
17:15 KNUD E. HANSEN introduces new design of icebreaking expedition cruise vessel
16:56 Vyborg Shipyard lays down processing trawler of KMT02.03 design
16:35 "NextGEN" shipping decarbonization concept mooted for green and efficient navigation
16:19 USC and KOMEA create Russia-Korea shipbuilding and ship equipment cluster
16:05 Hopper Dredger First to Sail 2,000 Hours on 100% Sustainable Marine Biofuel
15:34 Boudewijn Siemons appointed as new Port Authority COO
15:10 The largest LNG-powered container ship joins CMA CGM Group's fleet
14:58 Lead nuclear-powered icebreaker of Project 22220, the Arktika, heads out for Murmansk
14:23 Release of containers at Port of Antwerp will be digitalized
14:17 Gazprombank to loan EUR 522 for construction of floating LNG storage units
13:22 Konecranes to start cooperation negotiations in Germany and Finland in its Industrial Equipment business area