• Home
  • News
  • MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 05, 2023
  • 2023 February 2 13:39

    MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 05, 2023

    World bunker indices may show a moderate uptrend next week

    The Weekly Outlook was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

    Over the Week 05, MABUX global bunker indices showed a moderate downward correction. The 380 HSFO index fell by 9.32 USD: from 490.19 USD/MT last week to 480.87 USD/MT. The VLSFO index, in turn, decreased by 8.46 USD (713.73 USD/MT versus 722.19 USD/MT last week). The MGO index also lost 35.10 USD (from 1076.50 USD/MT last week to 1041.40 USD/MT). We expect this is a short-run downward correction and the global bunker market still retains the potential for further uptrend.

    Global Scrubber Spread (SS) - the price differential between 380 HSFO and VLSFO - remained virtually unchanged over the Week 05 - plus $0.86 ($232.86 vs. $232.00 last week), although the average increased by $9.66. In Rotterdam, SS Spread rose by $13.00 to $206.00 (vs. $193.00 last week), breaking the psychological $200 mark. In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO price difference was flat at $268.00. Meantime, the SS Spread weekly averages in Rotterdam and Singapore also added $13.16 and $8.16, respectively. More information is available in the "Differentials" section at www.mabux.com.

    EU gas inventories are still unusually high for this time of the year – at full across the EU and well above the five-year average for the winter heating season. The high volumes of gas in storage and the constant influx of LNG cargoes are easing supply concerns in the absence of most of the Russian pipeline gas.

    Despite that the price of LNG as bunker fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) unexpectedly rose significantly for the first time in the last 8 weeks and reached 1446 USD/MT on January 30 (plus 271 USD compared to last week). The price difference between LNG and conventional fuel was 390 USD on January 30: MGO LS at the port of Sines was quoted at 1056 USD/MT that day. We expect LNG bunker prices may fall again next week.

    During the Week 05, the MDI index (comparison of MABUX market bunker prices (MBP Index) vs MABUX digital bunker benchmark (DBP Index)) maintained an underestimation of 380 HSFO fuel in all four selected ports. The underprice premium sharply decreased in Rotterdam to minus $34 from minus $123 last week. In the other selected ports, the undercharge ratio changed insignificantly and amounted to minus $ 125 in Singapore, minus $ 163 in Fujairah and minus $ 80 in Houston.

    In the VLSFO segment, according to MDI, three selected ports: Singapore, Fujairah and Houston are still in the overcharge zone: plus $45, plus $28 and plus $16, respectively. Rotterdam remains the only VLSFO underestimated port: minus $24. Overprice margins have risen while underpricing has declined.

    In the MGO LS segment, Fujairah remains the only overvalued port: plus $ 116 while overcharge ratio moderately increased. In all other ports, the MDI registered an underpricing of MGO LS: Rotterdam – minus $63, Singapore – minus $91 and Houston –  minus $12. The underprice levels narrowed slightly.

    More information on the correlation between market prices and the MABUX digital benchmark is available in the “Digital Bunker Prices” section at www.mabux.com.

    The Port of Rotterdam Authority registered 29,029 sea-going vessel arrivals in 2022 – 0.5% up on the 28,876 seen in 2021. However, the number of inland vessels saw a slight decrease on the year, from 98,469 in 2021 to 97,459 in 2022. Looking ahead, the Port Authority noted that from July methanol ‘will be bunkered regularly’. ‘Ahead of this, the preconditions for safe bunkering have now been agreed with the parties involved,’ the Port of Rotterdam Authority said. Methanol was included on the European bunker hub’s 2022 marine fuel statistics. The total volume of traditional and bio-blended marine fuel oil and distillate products delivered in Rotterdam last year was 10,510,355 metric tonnes – up substantially on the 9,592,145 mt sold in 2021. However, LNG bunker volumes fell 45% on the year.

    There are a lot of uncertainties regarding Russian fuel supply in the coming months, the key being whether Russia can place the fuel displaced from Europe elsewhere, and whether a planned price cap on Russia’s fuels would work as intended. Despite the current downward correction in the global bunker market, we are of option that there is still the potential for further growth. World bunker indices may show a moderate uptrend next week.

    By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX

2023 March 23

17:14 China’s crude oil imports in January-February 2023 fell by 1.3% YoY
17:10 CMA CGM commences the only direct Japan-U.S. East Coast Service
16:48 Admiralteiskie Verfi shipyard held the first start of the main engine on Mekhanik Sizov trawler of Project СТ-192
16:47 IMO Secretary-General updated on Black Sea Grain initiative
16:22 BV-classed hybrid ferries with battery and solar power to be deployed in Hong Kong
16:16 Finland lifts arrest of Russian fertilizers in the port of Kotka
16:03 Port of Cork accelerates digitalisation with new AI-powered port system
15:25 “K” Line to install automated kite system on the coal carrier Corona Citrus
14:22 Return of railway ferry Baltiysk to Ust-Luga-Baltiysk line postponed to April 2023
14:03 Samskip starts a new innovative project that will reduce CO2 emissions for its vessels
13:27 European Council and the European Parliament announces new agreement to decarbonise the maritime sector
12:50 Global decrease of investments in oil and gas sector to result in shortage of facilities in 3-5 years
12:43 Ports of Stockholm explores safety aspects of autonomous shipping in innovative research project
12:29 Six сompanies team up to build, operate Japan's 1st methanol-fueled coastal tanker
11:42 Port of Oakland joins clean energy trade mission
10:55 Russian ship carrying a cargo of fertilizers detained in the Finnish port of Kotka
10:41 Hamburger Hafen und Logistik revenue up by 7.7 percent to € 1,578.4 million in 2022
10:32 Russian Railways increased volume of Pacific seafood shipments from Primorye by 6% in January-February 2023
10:25 Hyundai Heavy achieves world's first 200 million BHP milestone
09:57 Agency for Strategic Initiatives to support production of high-speed hydrofoils
09:20 Nevsky Shipyard lays down third serial tanker of Project 23130 for RF Defence Ministry

2023 March 22

19:19 MSCC Bronka (Saint-Petersburg) sold to Moscow company NKK-Logistik
17:30 Direct service from China to Saint-Petersburg launched by Transit
17:06 JERA and Virya Energy reach an agreement for the acquisition of Parkwind by JERA
16:41 Alfa Laval completes acquisition of innovative friction reduction technology
16:24 State Duma passed in its first reading Northern Delivery Bill
16:08 OGCI, Stena Bulk, GCMD project gets go-ahead to use carbon capture on oil tanker pilot to decarbonize shipping
15:46 Grimaldi signs the purchase agreement for the acquisition of a majority stake in the Igoumenitsa Port Authority
15:03 Delo Group and China’s Shandong Port Group will jointly develop multimodal container transportation
14:32 Russia’s decision to voluntarily cut crude oil production by 500,000 bpd to remain in force until end of June 2023 — Alexander Novak
14:09 South Carolina Ports container volumes down 13% in Feb 2023
13:44 China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation wins Solomon Islands port project
13:25 GreenIT and Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners to develop three floating offshore wind farms in Italy with 2 GW capacity
12:59 Russia and China expand economic cooperation in the Far East
11:35 Thames Freeport given green light by UK Government
11:27 Problems with coal unloading in Posiet and Vanino ports entail loss of Russian Railways’ cargo base
11:08 Greece and Turkey agree to support each other in the UN’s Security Council and the International Maritime Organisation - EURACTIV
10:51 DNV and PETROJET sign MoU to support green hydrogen projects in Egypt
10:25 Hanwha gets Vietnam approval for Daewoo Shipbuilding takeover - Yonhap
10:10 Russia to supply grain to African countries at no expense if grain deal is not extended after 60 days — Vladimir Putin
09:49 Russia is a strategic supplier of oil and natural gas to China – Vladimir Putin
09:21 Atomflot to create digital ecosystem for NSR for RUB 3.8 billion

2023 March 21

20:56 Russia is ready to create, together with China, a working body for the development of the NSR – Vladimir Putin
18:37 GTT takes first place in the INPI's list of ETI patent applicants
18:07 Shell publishes the Energy Security Scenarios
17:34 Wartsila upgrades Wartsila 31 diesel engine
17:22 Cochin Shipyard bags order for world's first zero emission feeder container vessel
17:16 Shell revives German refinery sale as Russian ownership cleared - Reuters
16:47 Langh Ship switches to biofuel on its container vessel
16:02 Business costs soar as Russia sanctions bite - Reuters
15:40 Russia and China are preparing projects to boost freight traffic along the Trans-Siberian and Trans-Asian routes
15:14 Optimarin expands BWTS manufacturing into China
13:33 Russia suspends rapeseed exports
13:30 Brazil’s Porto Itapoá invests in equipment ‘firsts’ for Brazil
13:06 Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky joins list of ports whose harbormasters register ships in Russian International Register of Ships
13:04 100 audits completed under IMO Member State Audit Scheme
12:50 Port of Antwerp-Bruges joins forces with Routescanner
12:36 Terminal Astafiev gets nod from Nakhodka Customs to store containerized freight
12:13 King Abdulaziz Port breaks container handling record
11:37 Redevelopment of the Nizhne-Kama Lock nears completion