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  • MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 21, 2023.
  • 2023 May 26 10:25

    MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 21, 2023.

    The Weekly Outlook was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

    Over the Week 21, the global MABUX bunker indices turned into an upward trend. The 380 HSFO index experienced a rise of 9.27 USD, climbing from 477.06 USD/MT in the previous week to 486.33 USD/MT. However, it still remained below the 500 USD threshold. The VLSFO index, in turn, increased by 9.82 USD (607.20 USD/MT versus 607.38 USD/MT last week), once again surpassing the 600 USD level. The MGO index recorded a gain of 8.04 USD, going up from 790.85 USD/MT to 798.89 USD/MT. At the time of writing, the market was in an uptrend.

    The Global Scrubber Spread (SS) - the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO - experienced minimal changes during Week 21, with a marginal increase of $0.55 ($120.87 compared to $120.32 last week). However, the weekly average continued its downward trajectory, decreasing by $3.27. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread saw a modest rise of $2, reaching $92.00, which remained consistently below the $100 mark. Conversely, the weekly average declined by $3.00. 00. In Singapore, the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO also exhibited an upward trend, with an increase of $3.00 by the end of the week ($127.00 versus $124.00 last week). The weekly average recorded a gain of $9.84. Presently, the downward trend in the SS Spread has halted, and there is a possibility of an upward correction in the near-term outlook. More information is available in the Differentials section on www.mabux.com.

    The EU announced the successful outcome of the first-ever international tender for joint purchasing of EU gas supplies. During this tender, the EU managed to attract bids from 25 supplying companies equivalent to more than 13.4 billion cubic meters of gas (bcm) – surpassing the 11.6 bcm of joint demand that EU companies submitted through the recently established AggregateEU mechanism.

    The price of LNG as bunker fuel in the port of Sines (Portugal) has continued its decline and as of May 22, it reached 742 USD/MT. This represents a decrease of 17 USD compared to the previous week. LNG is now priced at 10 USD cheaper than conventional fuel, marking the first time this has occurred since October 2022. On the same day, MGO LS in the port of Sines was quoted at 752 USD/MT. This downward trend in LNG prices creates favorable conditions for the further expansion of the LNG fleet. More information is available in the LNG Bunkering section of www.mabux.com.

    Throughout Week 21, the MDI index, which measures the correlation between market bunker prices (MABUX MBP Index) and the digital bunker benchmark MABUX (MABUX DBP Index), indicated that 380 HSFO fuel was undervalued in all four selected ports. The average weekly underprice ratio decreased by 1 point in Rotterdam and Houston, while it increased by the same 1 point in Singapore and Fujairah.

    Regarding the VLSFO segment, according to MDI, Singapore is the only overcharged port. The average overprice level increased by 7 points. The remaining three ports were undervalued, with average levels up 3 points in Rotterdam and 8 points in Houston, and down 7 points in Fujairah.

    In the MGO LS segment, Rotterdam, Singapore, and Houston continued to be undervalued. Rotterdam's average weekly undercharge margin increased by 3 points, while Singapore and Houston saw decreases of 9 and 2 points respectively. Fujairah remained the only overvalued port, although the overprice premium decreased further by $22.

    For more detailed information on the correlation between market prices and the MABUX digital bunker benchmark, please refer to the "Digital Bunker Prices" section at www.mabux.com.

    A new paper on dual fuel retrofits from DNV and MAN Energy Solutions (MAN ES) says that retrofit costs, including fuel storage and the fuel supply system, can range between $5 million and $15 million depending on the fuel choice, and ‘as a rule of thumb’ should not be more than 25% of a vessel’s construction cost ‘to be economically viable. While the use of biofuels is ‘the most straightforward way’ to cut emissions on existing vessels without making large capital investments, these fuels come with challenges, such as availability of supply and high prices. Although biofuel adoption increased in 2022, the new paper notes that it still only accounts for 0.1% of the maritime energy mix. A ship should typically have a minimum newbuild cost of around $50 million to be suitable for retrofitting and vessels meeting these criteria include tankers above 50,000 DWT, bulkers above 160,000 DWT and containerships above 7,000 TEU.  DNV and MAN ES also highlight that in some cases, such as for ships retrofitting to methanol, the costs can be lower. All in all, less than 10% of the existing global merchant fleet are regarded as theoretic candidates for retrofitting.

    We expect the global bunker market still retains the potential for further downtrend, while irregular fluctuations in bunker indices may prevail in the upcoming week.

    By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX

2023 June 10

15:42 Port Authority of New York and New Jersey adopts new industry-leading, sustainable concrete standards
14:33 KR awards AiP to HD Hyundai Heavy Industries' Innovative Tank Shape (Hi-ICON) with Sloshing-Restrained Technology
13:12 ICTSI's CMSA handles first carbon-neutral container in North America
12:09 Stena Line and Port of Gothenburg take next step towards Arendal
10:23 Low-flashpoint methanol fuel system from KSOE approved by ABS

2023 June 9

18:15 MOL, Toyo Construction form Japanese offshore wind joint venture
17:56 IAA PortNews’ summary of past week news
17:45 MV Corinthian cruise ship first of the season at ABP’s Port of Barrow
17:29 ROVOP appoints Roland Reid as new Training & Competency Manager
17:24 Port of Helsinki throughput in 5M’2023 fell by 8% YoY
17:13 TGS and SLB announce engagement Phase 4 in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico
17:02 Port of Liepaja throughput in 5M’2023 fell by 1.4% Y-o-Y
16:40 Throughput of Petersburg Oil Terminal in 4M’2023 rose by 8% YoY
16:35 Subsea7 extends frame agreement with Aker BP
16:17 Hanwha Systems presents unmanned maritime systems capabilities at MADEX 2023
16:09 MODEC’s FPSO Almirante Barroso MV32 for Brazilian “pre-salt” region achieves First Oil and starts 21-year time charter
15:48 KNCC Liquid CO2 Concept moves forward with DNV GASA
15:19 Vestas secures 161 MW order from Neoen for two projects in Finland
14:56 Throughput of Russian seaports in January-May 2023 rose by 11.2% YoY
14:33 More installation contracts for Island Victory - Island Offshore
14:29 Amur Shipyard lays down corvette of Project 20385 named Retivy
14:09 Fluxys LNG: regasification slots available on sale for August and September 2023
13:57 Delfin enters strategic investment agreement with Mitsui O.S.K. Lines
13:21 State-of-the-art container ship delivered to ABS class
12:31 Bassoe Technology’s 17 MW D-Floater floating wind foundation receives DNV AiP
12:13 Offshore works kick off at Vineyard wind farm in US with installation of first foundation
12:00 Vitaly Kovalev reelected as President of Russian Association of Marine and River Bunker Suppliers
11:47 Seaspan Shipyards has cut steel on a ‘Prototype block’
11:31 Viridis Bulk Carriers wins DNV AiP for ammonia-powered short sea bulk carrier design
10:42 The Mission to Seafarers launches world’s first digital seafarers’ centre
09:32 KR grants first new technical qualification statement for HiNAS-Control
09:20 Rosmorport is a customer of 21 projects on construction and reconstruction of port infrastructure facilities

2023 June 8

18:17 DNV and SMF study highlights upskilling needs of seafarers in the areas of decarbonization and digitalization
17:58 Russian seaports nearly stopped handling imports from Europe in Q1’23 — Morcenter TFC
17:39 KR grants AiP to SHI's LCO2 carrier
17:16 DNV and Zakher Marine sign MOU to accelerate decarbonization goals
16:47 KR approves jointly developed methanol-fueled MR tanker
16:34 The CMA CGM Group builds up its terminal footprint in Europe and the Mediterranean with CSP Bilbao and Valencia
16:16 Marshall Rokossovsky and General Chernyakhovsky ferries to start autonomous operation in July
15:52 HHLA and ABB sign partnership agreement to further develop automatic stacking crane systems
15:27 Twelve challenge statements on maritime decarbonisation, port productivity and cyber resilience identified for Smart Port Challenge 2023
15:12 DNV releases new SLP application for safer and more efficient transport of steel coils
15:09 Viking hosts a naming ceremony for its newest ocean ship in NYC
14:36 Russian Railways: loading of export cargo bound for Russian ports rose by 4.1% in 5M’23
14:13 DNV to class next generation commissioning service operation vessels supporting the offshore wind industry
13:42 DNV presents AiP for NoGAPS ammonia-powered gas carrier design
13:30 Limits of port Vysotsk in the Leningrad Region expanded with additional section
13:07 OrbitMI harnesses data-sharing power of Veracity by DNV with reporting integration
12:36 TransContainer launches regular service for cargo delivery from Chinese port of Dalian to Russia via Vostochny Port
12:14 Corvus' Pelican Fuel Cell System will help transform the maritime industry
11:55 Sovfracht resumes transportation of sanctioned cargo to the Kaliningrad Region
11:37 LR award AiP for Daphne Technology’s PureMetricsTM emission monitoring and reporting system
10:40 30 ships to be built under of Phase II of investment quotas programme – Rosrybolovstvo
10:21 Yara Marine and Veracity by DNV integration to streamline fleet analytics and compliance
09:31 14 ship to be built under delivered investment quotas programme in 2023 - Ilya Shestakov

2023 June 7

18:11 ABS and Vaholmen sign landmark LOI for the development of a VOC recovery vessel
18:02 DP World's innovative rail incentive to drive decarbonisation of UK supply chains
17:59 Sredne-Nevsky Shipyard commenced sea trials of passenger catamaran Fort Kronshlot, lead ship of Kotlin design
17:44 ABP reports record five-month volume of cargo
17:39 Pakistan International Container Terminal, SeaLead launch Pakistan-Australia direct service