The US Energy Information Administration has built its June Short-Term Energy Outlook around an assumption that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed in the near term, with oil shipments resuming in the third quarter of 2026 and traffic not returning to pre-conflict levels until early 2027, according to the EIA.
The agency said very limited shipping traffic through the strait has forced Middle East producers to cut crude output by more than 11m barrels per day in May from pre-conflict levels.
The disruption is expected to drive large inventory draws, with global oil stocks falling by an average of 6.3m bpd in the second quarter of 2026 and 7.6m bpd in the third quarter. OECD inventories are forecast to drop to their lowest level since 2003.
EIA now expects global oil demand to fall by 1.1m bpd in 2026, after reaching 104.0m bpd in 2025. The revision marks a major change from its May forecast for a 0.2m bpd increase and its February forecast for a 1.2m bpd gain.
Demand is expected to recover in 2027, rising by 2.5m bpd to 105.3m bpd as supply flows return later in 2026.
Brent crude is forecast to average $105 per barrel in June and July, with falling inventories offsetting weaker demand and production outages. EIA expects Brent to fall to an average of $79 per barrel in 2027 as flows through Hormuz resume and shut-in production is gradually restored.
The agency also raised its US petroleum product price outlook. Diesel and jet fuel wholesale prices are forecast to rise by more than 60% in 2026 and 40% in 2027, respectively, compared with EIA’s pre-conflict February outlook. Wholesale gasoline is expected to increase by around 50% in 2026 and nearly 40% in 2027.
Demand for US supply has increased as crude and refined product flows through Hormuz have been disrupted. US crude oil and petroleum product net exports reached a record 5.8m bpd in April and stayed close to that level in May.
EIA expects US crude oil and petroleum product net exports to average 4.2m bpd in 2026, up 1.4m bpd from 2025. Net exports of diesel and jet fuel are expected to rise in the second quarter of 2026 compared with the same period last year. Henry Hub natural gas prices are forecast to average about $3.34 per MMBtu in the second half of 2026 and $3.55 per MMBtu in the second half of 2027.
The EIA is the statistical and analytical agency of the US Department of Energy, producing official data, forecasts and market analysis on energy supply, demand, prices, trade and inventories.
The OECD is an intergovernmental organisation whose members include advanced economies in North America, Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. Its oil inventory data are used as a core indicator of market tightness.
Henry Hub is a natural gas delivery and pricing point in Louisiana and the benchmark location for US natural gas futures.