The Bunker Outlook was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)
During the week, the global bunker market maintained a downward trajectory amid a temporary stabilization of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which eased concerns over potential supply disruptions. The 380 HSFO index declined by USD 29.84, falling from USD 725.22/MT last week to USD 695.38/MT and dropping below the psychological USD 700 threshold. The VLSFO index also moved lower, decreasing by USD 23.30 from USD 875.61/MT to USD 852.31/MT. The MGO LS index recorded the largest loss among the main bunker grades, falling by USD 36.78 from USD 1,312.77/MT last week to USD 1,275.99/MT. At the time of writing, bearish sentiment continued to dominate the market, with bunker prices extending their decline at a moderate pace.
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS) — the price differential between 380 HSFO and VLSFO — continued its moderate upward movement, increasing by USD 6.54 from USD 150.39 last week to USD 156.93. The index surpassed the USD 150.00 level and remained comfortably above the psychological USD 100.00 threshold, which is generally regarded as the SS Breakeven point. The weekly average of the Global SS Spread also strengthened, rising by USD 11.66. In Rotterdam, however, the SS Spread moved in the opposite direction, declining by USD 12.00 from USD 97.00 last week to USD 85.00. The index remained below the USD 100.00 mark, while its weekly average decreased by USD 5.83. In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO spread widened significantly by USD 40.00, increasing from USD 125.00 last week to USD 165.00 and exceeding the USD 150.00 level. At the same time, the port’s weekly average SS Spread edged lower by USD 7.17. Overall, the SS Spread continues to lack a clear directional trend, with regional indices moving in opposite directions. Nevertheless, spread values above USD 100.00 continue to indicate stronger economic incentives for scrubber-equipped vessels consuming 380 HSFO compared to ships operating on conventional VLSFO. We expect SS Spread dynamics to remain volatile and mixed next week, as market participants continue to assess geopolitical developments and the prospects for a sustainable settlement in the Middle East. More detailed information is available in the “Differentials” section of mabux.com.
At the end of the week, the ECA Spread (ES) — the price differential between ULSFO and MGO LS — in Istanbul narrowed by USD 25.00, declining from USD 75.00 last week to USD 50.00. During the reporting period, however, the index briefly reached the USD 100.00 level, while its weekly average increased by USD 29.17. The Venice ECA Spread was not calculated due to the absence of regular market quotations. Overall, the ECA Spread continues to demonstrate mixed dynamics, with no clear directional trend emerging. Index values have yet to establish themselves above the psychological USD 100.00 threshold, indicating a still-limited premium of MGO LS over ULSFO in ECA-compliant operations. Given the elevated volatility across the global bunker market, we expect the ECA Spread to remain subject to multidirectional fluctuations next week, driven by ongoing uncertainty in energy markets and geopolitical developments. More detailed information is available in the “Differentials” section of mabux.com.
Europe’s regasification capacity jumped 32% between 2022 and 2025 to roughly 270 BCM per year, propelled by rapid FSRU deployments in Germany and expansions in Poland and the Netherlands. Germany alone commissioned 44.8 BCM of import capacity across Wilhelmshaven, Brunsbüttel, Lubmin, and Stade within 24 months. Poland’s Gdańsk FSRU and Świnoujście upgrade now provide 14.4 BCM combined, giving Warsaw surplus volumes for regional exports. Lithuania’s Klaipėda terminal underscores the rise of small-scale reloads, posting 1,834 truck loadings in 2025. Forecast additions could lift capacity to 405 BCM by 2030, implying significant over-build if demand trends hold, so asset owners increasingly seek long-term offtake partners to mitigate utilization risk.
European underground gas storage levels continued to increase at a moderate pace. As of June 8, storage facilities were filled to 42.79% of total capacity, up 2.03 percentage points from the previous week. However, inventories remained 18.67 percentage points below the year-end level of 61.46% and continued to lag behind the seasonal average of 50%, highlighting the slower pace of stock replenishment compared to historical norms. The European TTF gas benchmark maintained its upward trajectory during Week 24. The index increased by €1.137/MWh, rising from €47.607/MWh last week to €48.744/MWh, reflecting ongoing market sensitivity to supply-demand fundamentals and geopolitical developments.
The price of LNG as a bunker fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) recorded a sharp increase this week, rising by USD 90.00/MT to USD 1,189/MT, compared to USD 1,099/MT the previous week. As a result, the price spread between LNG and conventional marine fuel shifted in favor of conventional fuel for the first time since March 25, 2026. On June 8, MGO LS was assessed at USD 1,184/MT in Sines, placing LNG at a USD 5/MT premium to MGO LS. By comparison, LNG had maintained a USD 32/MT price advantage over conventional fuel one week earlier. More detailed information is available in the "LNG Bunkering" section at mabux.com.
At the end of Week 24, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) — the ratio of market bunker prices (MBP) to the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP) — continued to reflect mixed pricing dynamics across the world’s four major bunkering hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston.
In the 380 HSFO segment, three ports were assessed as undervalued. Houston returned to the undervalued zone, joining Rotterdam and Singapore. Average weekly discount levels increased by 6 points in Rotterdam and 27 points in Houston, while declining by 7 points in Singapore. Fujairah remained the sole overvalued port, with its overvaluation level rising by 1 point during the week.
In the VLSFO segment, Rotterdam, Singapore, and Houston also remained undervalued. Average MDI levels increased by 11 points in Rotterdam and 29 points in Houston but edged down by 1 point in Singapore. Fujairah continued to be the only overvalued port in this segment, with its overvaluation level surging by 251 points and remaining significantly above the USD 100.00 threshold.
In the MGO LS segment, Rotterdam, Singapore, and Houston retained their undervalued status. MDI levels increased by 16 points in Rotterdam but declined by 49 points in Singapore and by 2 points in Houston. Fujairah remained the only overvalued port, with its overvaluation level increasing by a further 12 points. The MDI values for both Rotterdam and Fujairah continued to remain consistently above the USD 100.00 mark.
Overall, the balance between overvalued and undervalued ports remained largely unchanged during the week, with Houston’s return to the undervalued zone in the 380 HSFO segment representing the only notable shift. The prevailing trend in the DBP assessment remains mixed; however, undervalued bunker prices continue to dominate across the major global hubs amid persistently elevated market volatility.
More detailed information on the correlation between market bunker prices and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark is available in the “Digital Bunker Prices” section of mabux.com.
According to DNV, 36 new orders for alternative-fuelled vessels were placed in May, only marginally below the 38 orders recorded in April. The ordering activity remained heavily concentrated in the LPG/ethane carrier segment, which accounted for nearly three-quarters of all contracts signed during the month (26 vessels). In addition, owners placed orders for eight LNG-fuelled vessels, including six container ships and two car carriers, while two ethanol-fuelled bulk carriers were also contracted. During the first five months of 2026, total orders for alternative-fuelled vessels reached 119 units. LNG-fuelled vessels continue to dominate the orderbook with 60 contracts, representing more than half of all alternative-fuelled orders. The container segment accounted for the majority of LNG-related activity (42 vessels), followed by car carriers (12 vessels). LPG/ethane-fuelled vessels ranked second with 50 orders, while adoption of other alternative fuel technologies remained limited, including methanol/ethanol (4 vessels), ammonia (4 vessels), and hydrogen (1 vessel). DNV further noted that, by the end of May, the share of alternative-fuelled vessels in total contracted tonnage was noticeably lower than during the corresponding period of 2025. Although the container sector continues to lead alternative-fuel adoption, market dynamics are gradually evolving. While ordering activity remains robust, demand has increasingly shifted toward smaller container vessels, whereas orders for very large container ships—historically the segment with the highest propensity to adopt alternative fuels—have become less frequent. At the same time, DNV observed growing interest in alternative-fuel solutions within the tanker and bulker sectors, indicating a broader diversification of decarbonization efforts across vessel categories.
Persistently high volatility across the global bunker market, combined with ongoing uncertainty surrounding the prospects for a resolution of the conflict in the Middle East, continues to hinder the formation of a stable pricing trend in the bunker sector. Against this backdrop, we expect mixed bunker fuel price dynamics to remain the prevailing market pattern next week, with prices likely to continue fluctuating in response to geopolitical developments and changes in energy market sentiment.
By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX
