The Bunker Outlook was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)
The global bunker market in July was shaped primarily by geopolitical developments, crude price volatility, regional supply dynamics and logistics constraints. The key market drivers included:
- Middle East geopolitical tensions: Ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea continued to underpin market sentiment, sustaining geopolitical risk premiums across crude oil, marine fuels and freight markets.
- Crude oil price volatility: Bunker prices closely mirrored fluctuations in Brent crude, with changing geopolitical expectations driving sharp movements in oil benchmarks and, consequently, bunker fuel prices.
- Regional supply dynamics: Supply conditions remained uneven across major bunkering hubs. Availability continued to improve in Singapore and Rotterdam as inventories recovered and replenishment progressed, while Fujairah remained comparatively tight due to its strategic location and greater exposure to regional geopolitical risks.
- Logistics and freight costs: Vessel rerouting, extended voyage distances, elevated war-risk insurance premiums and higher tanker freight rates increased bunker delivery costs, supporting physical market premiums despite improving fuel availability in some regions.
In July, the global bunker market returned to a phase of heightened volatility as renewed hostilities and the escalation of the conflict in the Persian Gulf pushed bunker prices sharply higher. The upward trend followed a period of relative stabilization in June during the temporary ceasefire between Iran and the United States. By the end of July, the MABUX 380 HSFO Index had gained USD 74.07, rising from USD 550.68/MT at the end of June to USD 624.75/MT and moving back above the USD 600/MT mark. The MABUX VLSFO Index increased by USD 78.92, from USD 706.63/MT to USD 785.55/MT. The MABUX MGO LS Index posted the strongest monthly gain, advancing by USD 259.55, from USD 1,085.19/MT at the end of June to USD 1,345.16/MT. At the time of writing, the bunker market remained under upward pressure, with the potential for further price increases driven by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS) – the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO – widened by $4.85 in July, increasing from $155.95 at the end of June to $160.80. The monthly average value of the index also rose by $8.12. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread narrowed by $1.00, from $140.00 at the end of June to $139.00, while the monthly average increased by $32.33. In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO spread widened by $11.00, from $229.00 to $240.00, with the monthly average value rising by $34.45. The Global and regional SS Spread indices remained well above the $100.00 breakeven level, confirming the continued economic advantage of using 380 HSFO with scrubbers over conventional VLSFO. The elevated spread levels also reflect the high volatility of the global bunker market amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. We expect the SS Spread to remain above the breakeven level in August, with its further dynamics largely dependent on developments in the Persian Gulf and the prospects for easing regional tensions. More detailed information is available in the "Differentials" section of mabux.com.
At the end of July, the MABUX ECA Spread (ES) – the price difference between ULSFO and MGO LS – in Istanbul narrowed by $50.00, falling from $100.00 at the end of June to $50.00. The monthly average value also declined by $3.75. The Venice ECA Spread is not calculated due to the lack of regular quotations. Despite heightened volatility in the bunker market, the ECA Spread continues to show no clear trend, with the index remaining below the psychological level of $100.00. We expect the spread to continue fluctuating in August, although a moderate upward correction cannot be ruled out. More detailed information is available in the "Differentials" section of mabux.com.
According to Shell, global LNG demand is projected to increase by around 65% from 2025 levels, reaching nearly 700 million tonnes per year by 2050, driven primarily by rising gas consumption in South and Southeast Asia. Global LNG trade totalled 422 million tonnes last year, and the market had been expected to record stronger growth in 2026. However, this year's expansion has been temporarily constrained by the Strait of Hormuz crisis. The Middle East conflict disrupted around one-fifth of global monthly LNG supply, driving spot LNG prices to multi-year highs and reducing purchasing activity among price-sensitive Asian importers. Despite this short-term setback, Shell maintains that long-term demand fundamentals remain robust, with structural growth in Asian gas consumption expected to support sustained expansion of the global LNG market through 2050.
European gas storage injections are running around 20% below last year’s levels as negative seasonal spreads reduce incentives to fill inventories, raising concerns over meeting EU storage targets. European underground gas storage levels continued to increase during July. As of July 30, storage facilities were 56.39% full, up 7.27 percentage points from 49.12% at the end of June. However, storage levels remained 5.07 percentage points below the level recorded at the beginning of the year (61.46%). The European TTF gas benchmark strengthened during July, rising by €16.039/MWh to €58.818/MWh from €42.779/MWh at the end of June.
The price of LNG as a marine fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) increased by USD 394/MT during July, rising to USD 1,407/MT from USD 1,013/MT at the end of June. Despite the sharp increase, conventional fuel retained its price advantage. The price spread between LNG and MGO LS widened to USD 75/MT in favour of MGO LS, compared with USD 44/MT at the end of June. At the end of July, MGO LS was quoted at USD 1,332/MT in Sines. More detailed information is available in the "LNG Bunkering" section of mabux.com.
At the end of July, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI), which measures the correlation between Market Bunker Prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP), showed the following trends across the four major global hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah and Houston.
In the 380 HSFO segment, Fujairah moved into the undervalued zone, resulting in all four ports being undervalued. The average discount widened by 14 points in Rotterdam, 40 points in Fujairah and 38 points in Houston, while narrowing by 1 point in Singapore.
In the VLSFO segment, Singapore moved into the overvalued zone, joining Fujairah. The average MDI increased by 25 points in Singapore but declined sharply by 295 points in Fujairah. Rotterdam and Houston remained in the undervalued zone, with their average undervaluation narrowing by 14 points and 16 points, respectively. Singapore's MDI moved close to full convergence between MBP and DBP, while Fujairah's MDI contracted sharply, falling below the $100 level.
In the MGO LS segment, Fujairah shifted into the undervalued zone, joining the other three ports. The average MDI increased by 9 points in Rotterdam, 65 points in Singapore, 261 points in Fujairah and 21 points in Houston.
Overall, the balance between overvalued and undervalued ports continued to shift toward the undervalued zone during July. We expect this trend to persist in August as geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East continues to influence bunker market pricing.
More detailed information on the correlation between market prices and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark is available in the Digital Bunker Prices section of mabux.com.
Other Global Bunkering Trends
• Gibraltar continued to reinforce its role as a key Mediterranean bunkering hub in June, recording 553 bunker calls, up 17.2% year-on-year from 472 calls in June 2025, although below the record 599 calls registered in May. The sustained increase highlights the ongoing reshaping of global shipping patterns amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, with longer voyage distances and route diversions continuing to support bunker demand at strategically located refuelling hubs.
• The Port of Rotterdam reported 1.636 million mt of fossil bunker fuel sales in Q2 2026, down from 1.686 million mt in Q1 2026 and significantly below 2.321 million mt recorded in Q2 2025. The decline marks the fourth consecutive quarterly contraction in fossil bunker sales, reflecting weaker conventional fuel demand and the gradual shift in vessel trading patterns and fuel consumption.
• Peninsula notes that continued vessel diversions around the Cape of Good Hope are driving a sharp increase in tonne-mile demand, extending voyage distances and providing ongoing support to freight rates. Together with the implementation of the Mediterranean Emission Control Area (Med ECA), these longer trading routes are expected to increase operating costs while tightening bunker availability at key alternative supply hubs. As more vessels avoid the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, traffic is increasingly routed westbound through the Mediterranean and the Suez Canal before continuing towards Asia, further strengthening bunker demand across the Mediterranean region.
• Bureau Veritas VeriFuel reported mixed bunker fuel quality trends during Q2 2026, with notable changes in VLSFO viscosity and sediment levels in both VLSFO and HSFO. VLSFO viscosity declined significantly compared with Q4 2025 in major bunkering hubs, including Fujairah (216 to 155), ARA (242 to 169) and Istanbul (103 to 59), while Malta recorded a sharp increase from 153 to 260. On a monthly basis, the global share of off-spec bunker samples eased from 1.9% in April—the highest level since April 2025—to 1.4% in May and 1.2% in June, indicating an overall improvement in fuel quality. Elevated sulphur content remained the primary cause of off-spec VLSFO globally, while excessive Total Sediment Potential (TSP) and catalytic fines (cat fines) also continued to contribute to quality deviations.
The global bunker market is expected to remain volatile throughout August, with developments in the Middle East continuing to be the main factor driving bunker prices. Prices are likely to stay at relatively high levels and will continue to react quickly to geopolitical news. Short-term downward corrections are possible if tensions ease temporarily, but the overall market direction will remain dependent on the security of regional oil exports and tanker traffic.
By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX
