The global containership fleet is poised to pass 34m TEU for the first time in BIMCO’s data after adding a record 10m TEU of capacity in just five and a half years, according to BIMCO.
Fleet capacity stood only 8,000 TEU short of the milestone at the start of September. A further 46 containerships totalling 286,000 TEU are scheduled for delivery during the month, meaning only a handful need to enter service for the fleet to cross the 34m-TEU mark.
The increase from 24m TEU to 34m TEU represents growth of 42%. By comparison, the previous 10m-TEU expansion, from 14m TEU to 24m TEU, took slightly more than 10 and a half years.
“The growth we have seen reflects a combination of record-high new ship deliveries and remarkably low ship recycling activity,” BIMCO chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen said.
Less than 300,000 TEU has been recycled during the past five and a half years. The last comparable period of such limited recycling was between early 2004 and mid-2009, when the containership fleet was about one-third of its current size.
Large vessels have driven much of the expansion. Ships above 12,000 TEU accounted for two-thirds of the 10m TEU added since early 2021, increasing their share of global fleet capacity from 30% to 40%.
Average containership size rose 14% over the same period. Carriers accounted for 85% of the capacity added and now control 65% of global fleet capacity, up from 57% in early 2021.
The ageing fleet also provides a growing pool of potential demolition candidates. Nearly 2,000 containerships with more than 5m TEU of combined capacity are at least 20 years old and will reach or exceed the historical average recycling age of 25 years within the next five years.
Even higher recycling may not prevent further rapid fleet growth. The orderbook contains more than 14m TEU scheduled for delivery by the end of 2030.
Depending on recycling levels, the fleet could add another 10m TEU over the next five years and reach 44m TEU.
Effective vessel supply could rise further if normal Suez Canal routings resume, releasing capacity currently absorbed by longer voyages around the Cape of Good Hope.
BIMCO, founded in 1905, is an international shipping association with about 2,100 members in 120 countries representing roughly two-thirds of world tonnage.