Anticipation of industry development

Global shipping and shipbuilding are on the threshold of a new technological revolution. Future vessels will be operated without crews and powered by liquefied gas and renewable energy sources. The industry is primarily driven by fuel saving and environmental regulation.

Bleak stabilization

Global shipping has not recovered from the crisis of 2008-09 yet. However, recent months have seen certain revival and growth though the freight rates are still quite below the pre-crisis level. Baltic Dry Index is at the level of 2009, several times below the pre-crisis level of 2008. Shiplnx Index (company activity in shipbuilding, shipping and port service) is almost 3 times below the level of 2008.

In this situation, the development and introduction of new technologies is mainly driven by the fuel efficiency approach and environmental regulation. These two factors make ship owners search for new solutions and order vessels of new projects. Besides, vessels tend to grow in capacity (especially for container transportation) while the market consolidates around several larger players. 

Between Asia and Europe

Global shipbuilding industry is presently divided into two parts, different in size. Some 90% of the tonnage is produced in Asia with a slow growth of Asian ship owners’ fleet. However, Europe keeps the lead in the sphere of hi-tech solutions. According to classification society DNV GL, some 70% of the global fleet is controlled from Europe which also dominates in production of shipboard equipment and devices. Europe has concentrated the competence in hi-tech shipbuilding and innovative solutions. It is a home of large shipbuilding clusters.

According to the managers of Blohm+Voss, one of the largest shipyards in Germany, European shipbuilding cannot compete with Asian shipyards in construction of large capacity vessels in low-tech segment. Yet, European shipbuilders are competent and competitive in construction of hi-tech and sophisticated vessels.

As for Russia, it has a unique competence in construction of nuclear-powered vessels and Arctic class ships. Nevertheless, successful development of the domestic industry is not possible without cooperation with the world’s leading centers of shipbuilding. 

Bordering on fantasy

As DNV GL forecasts, shipping is going to become more and more “smart” in the future. Automated vessels operated without crews will let reduce operation costs and “human factor”. On the other hand, introduction of such technologies can create new risks like remote trapping of operation. The market of bunker fuel will see the increasing role of LNG, bio fuel and hybrid propulsion systems.

The shipbuilding will also feature the development of information technologies making it possible to virtually simulate different conditions thus cutting the expenses for designing and construction of vessels.

Anyway, population increase and regional deficiency of certain resources will boost the development of international trade. New goods will gradually substitute the conventional ones. For instance, widening of fresh water deficit is forecasted and? Perhaps, it will be transported by tankers. Meanwhile, В то же время, development of 3D-printer technologies allowing for production of different things and parts can result in reduction of maritime transportation of such products.

Vitaly Chernov