During the week the oil prices have demonstrated irregular trend
During the week the oil prices have demonstrated irregular trend formed by a number of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, according to www.mabux.com.
There are still existing concerns about rising crude stockpiles in the U.S. Midwest. Seaway, the pipeline outlet for growing crude oil supplies from the Midwest to the key Gulf Coast refining hub, last month more than doubled operational capacity to 400,000 barrels a day. However, three operators of the Seaway Pipeline informed that the key conduit may not be free from potential operational restraints until work on a new section of pipeline is completed near the start of the fourth quarter. It means the pipeline may not be able to run at full capacity and this should keep pressure on U.S. crude prices.
Meanwhile prices got some support from the PMI survey released by HSBC showing that growth in China's manufacturing sector hit a two-year high in January, backing expectations a rebound would be led by domestic demand rather than exports. At the same time the non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 56.2 in January from 56.1 in December, the Beijing-based National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing said in a statement Feb.3. However it is forecasted that trading volumes may be lower next week as major Asian markets are heading into the Chinese New Year holiday.
The outlook for oil demand dimmed as fresh political uncertainty in Spain and Italy threatened to disrupt the euro zone's efforts to resolve its debt crisis. In Spain, the opposition Socialist Party called for the resignation of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy over a corruption scandal which has provoked unrests among Spaniards already disenchanted by deep recession and high unemployment, as support for the two biggest parties slumps. In Italy, chances of former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi regaining power raised worries about Rome's ability to fix its fiscal problems as he is seeing a resurgence in popularity, threatening reforms implemented by the government.
Oil prices also came under pressure as Iran said it was open to a U.S. offer of direct talks on its nuclear programme and that six world powers had suggested a new round of nuclear negotiations. Talks will be held in Kazakhstan Feb. 25. This meeting would be the first round of talks since the breakdown of negotiations between Iran and the so-called P5+1 (includes China, France, Germany, Russia, the U.K. and the U.S.) last June in Moscow. The sides had met for over a year without result before talks stalled. However this time hopes of progress are still rather delusive as Iranian officials said the West's goal in talking was to undermine the Islamic republic.
These concerns were supported by the US recent decision to tighten sanctions on Iran with measures blocking the exporter from repatriating oil payments in dollars, euros and other hard currencies. Crude buyers such as China, Japan and India must use their own currencies to pay Iran and keep the payments in escrow accounts, or else risk expulsion from the U.S. banking system.
The pressure on oil could be added by the fact that Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, has scaled back its oil output by about 700,000 barrels a day since November and pumped just over 9 million barrels a day. That came amid forecasts that the world will need less oil from the Saudis and others in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, as output from producers outside the group, led by the U.S., continues to grow.
All in all the situation shows that the market has a momentum of its own. But there are still the chances that the rally may start up again on hopes of improving economic growth which will spur a rise in oil demand.
For the next week expect irregular trend.
|
Product |
380 cSt HSFO |
380 cSt LSFO |
|
|
|
|
|
Rotterdam 2013-02-07 |
639 |
679 |
|
Rotterdam 2012-02-07 |
682 |
705 |
|
|
|
|
|
Gibraltar 2013-02-07 |
660 |
710 |
|
Gibraltar 2012-02-07 |
705 |
767 |
|
|
|
|
|
St Petersburg 2013-02-07 |
530 |
590 |
|
St Petersburg 2012-02-07 |
400 |
490 |
|
|
|
|
|
Panama Canal 2013-02-07 |
663 |
761 |
|
Panama Canal 2012-02-07 |
710 |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
Busan 2013-02-07 |
678 |
849 |
|
Busan 2012-02-07 |
745 |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
Fujairah 2013-02-07 |
647 |
750 |
|
Fujairah 2012-02-07 |
722 |
- |
All prices stated in USD / Mton
All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)
|
Product |
Close Feb. 07 |
|
Light Crude Oil (WTI) |
$96.62 |
|
Brent Crude Oil |
$116.73 |