Bunker prices to show irregular trend, expert says
The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange
Bunker prices on global markets are expected to demonstrate mixed movements on the uncertainty of global oil demand, the Marine Bunker Exchange's (MABUX) data show. Oil prices have been soft during the week on worries over slowing oil-demand growth and with forecasts for consumption in China being pared.
While there are signs of U.S. labour market resilience, despite deep government budget cuts, the rest of the U.S. economy is showing some strain. Here are still concerns about the effect of a wind-down of $85 billion-a-month easing program at the U.S. Federal Reserve. An end to the measure would likely render more support for the U.S. dollar, which typically weakens oil prices by making the commodity more expensive to global buyers.
This week U.S. Energy Information Administration said stockpiles unexpectedly fell 624,000 barrels to 394.9 million barrels. Yet, it is too early to take the drawdown as an indicator of a change in trend because gasoline and distillate inventories increased well above expectations. Without further improvement in the economy, fuel usage may remain sluggish while increasing production, particularly in the U.S., will lead again to rising stockpiles.
Different forecasts gave mixed signals about global oil demandin the near future. The report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries suggested it remains weak while OPEC production still is going to weigh on the market. OPEC produced 30.46 million barrels a day last month - the most since November and up from 30.18 million in March.
At the same time the IEA increased its forecast for global oil demand in 2013 for the first time since January. The 2013 estimate was raised by 65,000 barrels a day, predicting that world oil use will climb this year by 800,000 barrels a day. However the development of U.S. shale resources may send “shockwaves” through the global oil trade over the next five years and will create a “chain reaction” in the global transportation, processing and storage of oil. Crude futures for settlement in 2018 are trading at a discount to current prices, signaling expectations for increasing supplies and limited demand.
Big concern among investors is still the situation in Chinese economy. Industrial output in April came in at 9.3% above last year's level - an improvement over a March reading but under the 9.5% forecast. The report was the latest underscoring slowing economic growth in China, which in turn has left the oil market worried.
European data showed the euro zone was in its longest recession ever. In addition some oil companies in Europe are being questioned by antitrust regulators about potential manipulation of prices.
Geopolitical factors continue to keep Crude indexes supported as long as Syria is still in conflict and tension between Iran and the West over its nuclear program remains. The United Nations' nuclear agency recently failed again to persuade Iran to let it resume an investigation into suspected atomic bomb research, reviving worries about supply disruption. The reports of unrest in Libya give an additional support to Crude prices as well.
We expect marine bunker prices to go sideways for the coming week.
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Product |
380 cSt HSFO |
380 cSt LSFO |
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Rotterdam 2013-05-16 |
579 |
605 |
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Rotterdam 2012-05-16 |
630 |
675 |
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|
|
|
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Gibraltar 2013-05-16 |
590 |
635 |
|
Gibraltar 2012-05-16 |
669 |
720 |
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|
|
|
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St Petersburg 2013-05-16 |
527 |
560 |
|
St Petersburg 2012-05-16 |
480 |
590 |
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|
|
|
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Panama Canal 2013-05-16 |
596 |
679 |
|
Panama Canal 2012-05-16 |
658 |
- |
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|
|
|
|
Busan 2013-05-16 |
620 |
780 |
|
Busan 2012-05-16 |
670 |
- |
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|
|
|
Fujairah 2013-05-16 |
597 |
740 |
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Fujairah 2012-05-16 |
677 |
- |
All prices stated in USD / Mton
All time high Brent= $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
All time high Light crude (WTI)= $147.27 (July 11, 2008)
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Product |
Close May 15 |
|
Light Crude Oil (WTI) |
$94,30 |
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Brent Crude Oil |
$103,68 |