Expert predicts high volatility in bunker fuel markets
Fuel prices have been at elevated levels for two weeks following President Obama’s call for action against the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad in retaliation for a deadly chemical weapons attack against civilians last month. So Syria remains the main factor ruling world bunker prices, Marine Bunker Exchange says in its bunker review contributed to PortNews.
But at present there is a real sign for a possible diplomatic solution. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov urged Syria take the measures to avert a U.S.-led attack on Sep.09. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem welcomed the Russian proposal. France in turn will ask the UN Security Council to approve a resolution demanding that Syria place its chemical arms under international control. The draft is expected to call for Assad to be punished for the alleged chemical-weapons attack.
U.S. President Barack Obama asked U.S. lawmakers to postpone a vote authorizing the use of military force against Syria, but he voiced scepticism over Russian proposal and still sought support for his threat to use force should diplomacy fail. Meanwhile, U.S. officials warned that any deal with Syria to hand over its chemical weapons in the middle of a civil war would be difficult for inspectors to enforce and destroying them would likely take years. Still, a non-violent way to resolve the crisis would be the logical option, because oil prices would spike sharply if the conflict spreads to oil-producing nations in the Middle East such as Iran and Iraq.
The recent diplomatic efforts are easing investor concerns that another Middle East conflict would further disrupt fuel supplies.
U.S. economic news also gave a boost to oil as the latest jobs data fuelled expectations that the Fed will keep its economic stimulus measures in place longer than expected. The Labor Department reported that employers added 169,000 jobs in August, while July's figure was corrected downward from an earlier estimate of 162,000 jobs to 104,000 jobs, the fewest in over a year. The unemployment rate fell to 7.3 percent, the lowest in nearly five years. The slower hiring could lead the Fed to keep its bond-purchase program in place, or decrease it more gradually than it would have otherwise.
U.S. total crude inventories decreased 219,000 barrels last week to 360 million (forecast predicted more significant drop of 2.1 million). Supplies slipped for the ninth time in 11 weeks and gave some support to fuel prices.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said the world oil market was well supplied despite a plunge in Libya's output, and forecast a further drop in its oil market share in 2014. In a monthly report, OPEC said oil stocks in developed countries equalled almost two months of future demand although "some supply outages" had put upward pressure on prices. The U.S. Energy Department expressed similar sentiments after it raised its 2013 estimates of non-OPEC supply while leaving global demand nearly unchanged.
This week the economic data from China has also boosted the outlook for demand. China's industrial output rose a forecast-beating 10.4 percent in August from a year ago, while retail sales increased 13.4 percent. Those figures added to evidence that the Chinese economy may avoid a sharp slowdown.
But Syria is still the focus point which will dictate how fuel prices will behave. Risks of a U.S. attack against Syria and a threat to Middle Eastern oil exports remain even after President Barack Obama decided to delay military strikes. It is obvious that the tensions with Syria have been eased but they haven’t been removed.
We expect a prevalence of irregular trend and high volatility in bunker prices next week.
|
Product |
380 cSt HSFO |
380 cSt LSFO |
|
|
|
|
|
Rotterdam 2013-09-12 |
591 |
624 |
|
Rotterdam 2012-09-12 |
661 |
723 |
|
|
|
|
|
Gibraltar 2013-09-12 |
617 |
652 |
|
Gibraltar 2012-09-12 |
681 |
764 |
|
|
|
|
|
St Petersburg 2013-09-12 |
555 |
595 |
|
St Petersburg 2012-09-12 |
475 |
555 |
|
|
|
|
|
Panama Canal 2013-09-12 |
628 |
698 |
|
Panama Canal 2012-09-12 |
675 |
829 |
|
|
|
|
|
Busan 2013-09-12 |
627 |
724 |
|
Busan 2012-09-12 |
716 |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
Fujairah 2013-09-05 |
599 |
720 |
|
Fujairah 2012-09-05 |
686 |
- |
All prices stated in USD / Mton
All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)
|
Product |
Close Sep. 11 |
|
Light Crude Oil (WTI) |
$107,56 |
|
Brent Crude Oil |
$111,50 |