• 2018 February 22 15:13

    MABUX: Bunker market may continue moderate upward evolution next week

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World oil prices continued to post gains during the week, rising on the back of a weak dollar and comments from the participants of the OPEC+ deal that bolstered confidence in the longevity of the OPEC cuts. The broader upswing in equity markets also supported fuel indexes.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) also demonstrated moderate upward evolution in the period of Feb.15 - Feb.22:
        
    380 HSFO - up from 352.86 to 357,07 USD/MT (+4.21)
    180 HSFO - up from 391,79 to 394,36 USD/MT (+2.57)
    MGO         - up from 597.64 to 603,21  USD/MT (+5.57)


    A study from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies predicts that the standoff between U.S. shale and OPEC could keep oil prices trapped between a price band of $60 and $75 per barrel. If prices rise to the upper end of that band, more shale output will drag prices back down. But the OPEC cuts will prevent prices from falling much below $60.

    Some support to the fuel indexes was rendered by Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih, who said that OPEC would do better to leave the market tight than end the deal on cutting output too soon.

    Meantime, OPEC and the non-OPEC producers' part of the production cuts deal may have a plan for long-term cooperation drafted by the end of 2018, as they seek to institutionalize their current collaboration into a supergroup of oil producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia. The idea to follow up on the current OPEC/non-OPEC cooperation came originally from OPEC's Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo. Saudi Arabia confirmed that there is a readiness to continue cooperation beyond 2018. The mechanism hasn't been determined yet, but there is a consensus to continue.

    Besides, OPEC plans to discuss with Russia a new way to measure oil stockpiles. One possible new measurement would be to assess how long existing inventories would meet demand, or forward-day cover. Group of OPEC+ countries considers that more coordination is needed to assess inventories. It is expected that the issue will be discussed on April's meeting.

    Saudi Arabia confirmed it will cut additional 100,000 bpd of its oil production next month and keep its exports below 7 million bpd in March. The kingdom lifted its January production by 23,300 bpd to 9.977 million bpd, but still below its 10.058-million-bpd quota, overcomplying once again.

    Russia's economy in turn may come to feel a negative impact from the OPEC+ oil production cut deal. Russia agreed to cut 300,000 bpd from its post-Soviet record-high oil production of over 11.2 million bpd in November 2016. However, Russian Central Bank warned recently that the OPEC+ deal along with weaker demand for natural gas from abroad will temporary curb a growth in Russian production. Russian oil companies have also complained that the continued production cuts interfered with their growth plans, which led to speculation that Moscow could try to push OPEC for an earlier end to the deal.

    Venezuela is going to look for other buyers of its crude oil, should the United States carry out a threat to impose an oil embargo on the country. A full oil embargo, if made, could have serious consequences for U.S. refineries (that use Venezuela's heavy crude) as well. Meantime the amount of oil Venezuela shipped to the United States over the past year drop sharply: from 23.2 million barrels in January 2017 down to 16.652 million barrels in November. For comparison, in 2005 Venezuelan oil imports to the US were around 50 million barrels.

    The rebound in U.S. production is undermining efforts to curb supplies. It rose last week, hitting 10.27 million bpd, which would be a record if confirmed by monthly figures. November's monthly data showed production in the United States rose to 10.04 million bpd, and the country now ranks second in overall production. The U.S. oil rig count, an indicator of future production, also rose last week by 7 to 798, its highest since April 2015. The EIA expects U.S. production to top 11 million bpd in late 2018, a year earlier than projected last month.

    China's crude oil demand growth could slow down this year to 4.2 percent from 2017 (growth by only 0.5 million bpd) versus 5.5 percent last year. In 2017 China turned into the world's top oil importer as its crude oil imports exceeded those of the U.S. on a monthly basis for most of the year. January crude imports also jumped to a new record, at 9.57 million barrels daily, but forecasts of slower GDP growth may change optimistic projections.

    India's oil imports in turn rose to record highs amid strong economic growth and fuel demand. It pushed crude oil imports to a record 4.93 million bpd in January 2018, up by double digits compared to both December 2017 and January 2017. Economic growth in India is also expected to be strong over the next few years, supporting fuel consumption as a growing number of the huge population enter a higher-income slot and buy their first cars. As a result, India's oil demand may become one of the key oil market drivers in the coming years.

    About 15 super-tankers are currently filled with oil floating off the coasts of Singapore and surrounding Malaysia. That's slightly less than last November, and half the number of tankers used for storage in mid-2017. Onshore tanks in the region are also not booked out any more. The fall in storage could be considered as a sign production restraint started by OPEC+ deal in January 2017 is having the intended effect of reducing a global glut.
     
    We expect bunker prices will follow the general trend of the global fuel market and continue slight upward evolution next week.

     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2018 September 18

18:09 Cruise ships called Saaremaa Harbour nine times during the summer season
17:52 Arctic units of RF Navy’s Northern Fleet hold amphibious assault training at Chukotka coast
17:27 Annual Advanced Course on Port Operations and Management held in France on 10-12 September
17:04 Maersk Line announces rates from Europe & Mediterranean to West Africa
16:50 Marinet Conference gathered more than 500 on-site and virtual participants
16:21 Drilling rig supply ship of Project 22420, Ostap Sheremet, left Amursky Shipyard for outfitting and testing
16:04 Maersk Line announces new Bunker Adjustment Factor (BAF)
15:34 NYK participates in Japan Climate Initiative
15:04 6 MOL-operated/managed vessels earn commendations from Japan Coast Guard Regional Headquarters
14:30 Yang Ming launches new container vessel 'YM Wellbeing'
14:16 Throughput of Chinese ports grew by 4.1% to 6.15 billion tonnes in 8M’18
14:03 PORT OF KIEL restructures Ostuferhafen access area
13:52 RS gains ISO 9001:2015 Certificate
13:28 Kolmar to export up to 40 million tonnes of coal per year via a terminal under construction in the Muchke Bay
13:04 Throughput of port Kaliningrad in 8M’18 grew by 6% Y-o-Y to 9.6 million tonnes
12:40 Okskaya Sudoverf takes part in Global Fishery Forum and Seafood Expo 2018
12:17 Throughput of port Shanghai (China) declined by 1% to 372.85 million tonnes in 8M’18
11:55 Fuel oil prices show no significant changes in the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
11:31 Throughput of port Vyborg in 8M’18 up 23% Y-o-Y to 1.15 million tonnes
11:09 Diana Shipping aqnnounces time charter contract for m/v Artemis with Ausca
10:48 Throughput of port Primorsk in 8M’18 fell by 11% Y-o-Y to 35.79 million tonnes
10:30 Throughput of port Vysotsk in 8M’18 declined by 3% Y-o-Y to 12.07 million tonnes
10:09 Georgia Ports Authority approves $92M rail expansion
09:52 Brent Crude futures price down 0.55% to $77.62, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.44% to $68.39
09:43 ABS Global Gas Team awarded classification contract for Singapore's first LNG bunker barge
09:33 Krasnoye Sormovo shipyard delivers Pola Feodosia, fourth dry cargo carrier of Project RSD59
09:15 Baltic Dry Index is down to 1,357 points
08:17 GTT and Keppel Offshore & Marine sign a license agreement for the construction of membrane tank solutions
07:36 Bureau Veritas issues approval for GTT’s new NO96 Flex cargo containment system

2018 September 17

18:04 Maersk Line announces rates from Indian Subcontinent and Middle East to Mediterranean
17:50 ICS launches free guidance on preparing for 2020 sulphur cap
17:23 Throughput of port Ust-Luga in 8M’18 declined by 5% Y-o-Y to 64.49 million tonnes
17:04 Maersk Line announces rates from Europe & Mediterranean to West Africa
16:35 Cheniere and Vitol sign 15-year LNG sale and purchase agreement
16:04 Port of Piraeus establishes partnership with Port of Guangzhou
15:30 Keppel delivers its second LNG-powered vessel to Keppel Smit Towage Singapore
15:12 Maersk Line announces rates from Far East Asia to West Africa
14:58 HHLA floating crane loads world’s biggest ship propeller onto a vessel at the Port of Hamburg
14:50 Throughput of Port St. Petersburg up 12% to 39.39 million tonnes in 8M’18
14:23 Training for reducing emissions in ports held in Georgia
14:01 Incheon Port Authority signs agreement of 'Formation of eco-friendly port' with UNEP
13:36 Wärtsilä wins world’s first ‘LPG as fuel’ order for new generation of innovative gas carriers
13:12 GTT receives an AiP from Bureau Veritas for the development of its new cargo containment system (CCS) NO96 Flex
12:50 Registration opens for SMi’s 4th annual Maritime Reconnaissance & Surveillance Technology conference
12:31 Maersk to change fuel adjustment surcharge ahead of the 2020 sulphur cap
12:05 Super Luxury MV Viking Orion calls Colombo
11:57 Average wholesale prices for М-100 HFO up to RUB 20,404 in RF spot market
11:24 Bunker sales at the port of Singapore in 8M’18 down 1% Y-o-Y to 33.35 million tonnes
11:19 DNV GL starts phase II of project to examine the impact of phase-contamination on oil flow meters
11:03 Port of Singapore throughput in 8M’18 grew by 1.2% Y-o-Y to 418.62 million tonnes
10:46 Valencia Containerised Freight Index up 8.19% from January to August 2018
10:41 Throughput of port Helsinki (Finland) in 8M'18 up 8.9% Y-o-Y to 7.67 million tonnes (table)
10:18 The Maritime Standard reveals finalists for 2018 Awards
09:56 Brent Crude futures price down 0.12% to $78, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.07% to $68.72
09:34 Port of HaminaKotka throughput in 8M’2018 up 14.3% Y-o-Y to 10.9 million tonnes
09:15 Baltic Dry Index is down to 1,366 points
08:07 Newcastle welcomes ro-ro shipment for Newcastle Light Rail project
07:05 U.S. Port of Corpus Christi resumes normal operations

2018 September 16

13:59 GTT presents its latest technological innovations and related services during Gastech 2018 in Barcelona

2018 September 15

07:22 Port of Oakland night gates will expand to speed up cargo flow