• 2018 February 22 15:13

    MABUX: Bunker market may continue moderate upward evolution next week

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World oil prices continued to post gains during the week, rising on the back of a weak dollar and comments from the participants of the OPEC+ deal that bolstered confidence in the longevity of the OPEC cuts. The broader upswing in equity markets also supported fuel indexes.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) also demonstrated moderate upward evolution in the period of Feb.15 - Feb.22:
        
    380 HSFO - up from 352.86 to 357,07 USD/MT (+4.21)
    180 HSFO - up from 391,79 to 394,36 USD/MT (+2.57)
    MGO         - up from 597.64 to 603,21  USD/MT (+5.57)


    A study from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies predicts that the standoff between U.S. shale and OPEC could keep oil prices trapped between a price band of $60 and $75 per barrel. If prices rise to the upper end of that band, more shale output will drag prices back down. But the OPEC cuts will prevent prices from falling much below $60.

    Some support to the fuel indexes was rendered by Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih, who said that OPEC would do better to leave the market tight than end the deal on cutting output too soon.

    Meantime, OPEC and the non-OPEC producers' part of the production cuts deal may have a plan for long-term cooperation drafted by the end of 2018, as they seek to institutionalize their current collaboration into a supergroup of oil producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia. The idea to follow up on the current OPEC/non-OPEC cooperation came originally from OPEC's Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo. Saudi Arabia confirmed that there is a readiness to continue cooperation beyond 2018. The mechanism hasn't been determined yet, but there is a consensus to continue.

    Besides, OPEC plans to discuss with Russia a new way to measure oil stockpiles. One possible new measurement would be to assess how long existing inventories would meet demand, or forward-day cover. Group of OPEC+ countries considers that more coordination is needed to assess inventories. It is expected that the issue will be discussed on April's meeting.

    Saudi Arabia confirmed it will cut additional 100,000 bpd of its oil production next month and keep its exports below 7 million bpd in March. The kingdom lifted its January production by 23,300 bpd to 9.977 million bpd, but still below its 10.058-million-bpd quota, overcomplying once again.

    Russia's economy in turn may come to feel a negative impact from the OPEC+ oil production cut deal. Russia agreed to cut 300,000 bpd from its post-Soviet record-high oil production of over 11.2 million bpd in November 2016. However, Russian Central Bank warned recently that the OPEC+ deal along with weaker demand for natural gas from abroad will temporary curb a growth in Russian production. Russian oil companies have also complained that the continued production cuts interfered with their growth plans, which led to speculation that Moscow could try to push OPEC for an earlier end to the deal.

    Venezuela is going to look for other buyers of its crude oil, should the United States carry out a threat to impose an oil embargo on the country. A full oil embargo, if made, could have serious consequences for U.S. refineries (that use Venezuela's heavy crude) as well. Meantime the amount of oil Venezuela shipped to the United States over the past year drop sharply: from 23.2 million barrels in January 2017 down to 16.652 million barrels in November. For comparison, in 2005 Venezuelan oil imports to the US were around 50 million barrels.

    The rebound in U.S. production is undermining efforts to curb supplies. It rose last week, hitting 10.27 million bpd, which would be a record if confirmed by monthly figures. November's monthly data showed production in the United States rose to 10.04 million bpd, and the country now ranks second in overall production. The U.S. oil rig count, an indicator of future production, also rose last week by 7 to 798, its highest since April 2015. The EIA expects U.S. production to top 11 million bpd in late 2018, a year earlier than projected last month.

    China's crude oil demand growth could slow down this year to 4.2 percent from 2017 (growth by only 0.5 million bpd) versus 5.5 percent last year. In 2017 China turned into the world's top oil importer as its crude oil imports exceeded those of the U.S. on a monthly basis for most of the year. January crude imports also jumped to a new record, at 9.57 million barrels daily, but forecasts of slower GDP growth may change optimistic projections.

    India's oil imports in turn rose to record highs amid strong economic growth and fuel demand. It pushed crude oil imports to a record 4.93 million bpd in January 2018, up by double digits compared to both December 2017 and January 2017. Economic growth in India is also expected to be strong over the next few years, supporting fuel consumption as a growing number of the huge population enter a higher-income slot and buy their first cars. As a result, India's oil demand may become one of the key oil market drivers in the coming years.

    About 15 super-tankers are currently filled with oil floating off the coasts of Singapore and surrounding Malaysia. That's slightly less than last November, and half the number of tankers used for storage in mid-2017. Onshore tanks in the region are also not booked out any more. The fall in storage could be considered as a sign production restraint started by OPEC+ deal in January 2017 is having the intended effect of reducing a global glut.
     
    We expect bunker prices will follow the general trend of the global fuel market and continue slight upward evolution next week.

     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2018 June 17

18:40 Port of Oakland's largest terminal operator OK new lease to 2027
18:38 GoodBulk Ltd. announces delivery of Capesize vessel
18:32 Navios Maritime Partners announces sale of containership and options to sell four additional containerships

2018 June 15

18:35 Hapag-Lloyd implements Peak Season Surcharge from Mediterranean to USA
18:05 Wallenius Wilhelmsen Ocean adds Adelaide on the Australia service
17:54 Throughput of port Kaliningrad in 5M’18 up 12% Y-o-Y to 6.05 million tonnes
17:35 GTT conducts two FEED studies on two types of Gravity Based System
17:20 Throughput of port Vyborg in 5M’18 up 22% Y-o-Y to 610,900 tonnes
17:05 Port of Koper officially part of the New Silk Road
16:40 Yantar Shipyard launches yet another trawler of Project SK-3101R
16:35 Port of Long Beach volume up to 687,427 TEU in May 2018
16:05 Royal IHC joins PortXL
15:45 Throughput of port Vysotsk in 5M’18 declined by 3% Y-o-Y to 7.49 million tonnes
15:22 Main phase of Nizhegorodsky hydrosystem project obtains state expert approval
15:21 VTG FastTrack makes ad hoc transportation from the Port of Hamburg possible
15:00 Vopak opens new rail infrastructure in the port of Antwerp
14:21 Royal IHC and IHC IQIP sign memorandum of agreement with SOIC
14:09 DNV GL issues first type approval for aluminium cables onboard ships
13:16 Throughput of port Primorsk in 5M’18 down 18% Y-o-Y to 22.63 million tonnes
12:48 Bunker prices are down at the Port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
12:27 Innovative solution for lowering of ship emissions tested in the port of Rotterdam
12:23 LUKOIL commissions third well at Filanovsky field second stage
11:59 Throughput of port Ust-Luga in 5M’18 down 1% to 41.48 million tonnes
11:31 Throughput of Big Port St. Petersburg up 16% to 24.73 million tonnes in 5M’18
11:02 Lloyd’s Register and TWI launch Fullagar Technologies
10:30 Kotug Smit Towage performs naming ceremony for Damen tugs Rotterdam & Beagle
10:24 Brent Crude futures price down 0.14% to $75.83, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.09% to $66.83
10:02 Seaports of Ukraine handled 54.3 million tonnes of cargo in 5M’18, down 2.1% Y-o-Y
09:40 Throughput of Russian seaports in 5M’18 grew by 2.7% Y-o-Y to 328.4 million tonnes (detalization)
09:19 Baltic Dry Index up to 1,433 points

2018 June 14

18:03 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from East Mediterranean ports to Gulf and Red Sea
17:47 Throughput of port Kavkaz in 5M’18 up 37% Y-o-Y to 15.34 million tonnes
17:33 APL unveils new China Southeast Asia Service 8
17:30 Specifications of products to be rated as manufactured in Russia will be updated
17:03 Pasha Hawaii receives new refrigerated containers as part of container replenishment program
16:48 State Duma approves federal law on setting rouble prices for services offered in Russian seaports (document)
16:33 Long Beach Harbor Commissioners adopt port budget
16:16 Rosmorport announces tender for dredging works in water area of port Vanino
16:03 Prosafe extends standstill agreement with Cosco
15:50 Vyborg Shipyard to deliver two 22 MW icebreakers of Project IBSV01 by November’18
15:32 Huisman and RAMLAB start project for the production of 3D large offshore crane hook
15:19 FESCO fleet began supplying of goods to northern Russia
15:02 HMM, Evergreen and APL launch China-Australia express service
14:32 Keppel delivers second rig to Borr Drilling
14:20 Commercial Sea Port of Ust-Luga accepted and handled a Panamax ship
14:02 MOL's newbuilding coal carrier OI MARU to serve JERA Trading
13:47 Global fuel market is waiting for some clarity from the Vienna meeting next week, expert says
13:46 Three nuclear-powered icebreakers of Project 22220 will be delivered by 2021 – USC
13:32 DFDS orders additional freight ferry newbuilding from Jinling Shipyard
13:02 TechnipFMC and DOF Subsea announce the delivery of Skandi Recife and commencement of contract with Petrobras
12:44 WMU joins in Malmö coastline clean-up for World Oceans Day 2018
12:25 APM Terminals offers new gateway to Iraq
11:43 Extensive geotechnical investigation of the Port of Riga territory commenced in Spilve meadows
11:19 Bunker prices is growing at the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
10:21 Brent Crude futures price down 0.31% to $76.5, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.09% to $66.58
10:00 Baltic Workboats is renewing the Danish pilot boat fleet
09:38 Major amphibious ship Ivan Gren to join Russian Navy before late June 2018
09:17 Baltic Dry Index up to 1,404 points

2018 June 13

18:35 ESPO congratulates Port of Dunkerque for obtaining EcoPorts’ environmental standard (PERS)
18:05 CMA CGM announces FAK rates from Asia to North Europe