• 2018 June 21 15:50

    MABUX: All eyes are on what course of action OPEC will call for

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World oil indexes have had rather volatile week with irregular fluctuations. Plenty of factors are influencing fuel prices right now, and the OPEC+ decision expected on June 22 will be the single most important driver in the near-term. There are still fears that OPEC could ease production curbs to offset falling supplies in Venezuela and an expected drop in Iran oil exports as U.S. sanctions loom.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) demonstrated clearly defined downward trend in the period of June 14 – June 21:
        
    380 HSFO - down from 429.86 to 424,36 USD/MT (-5.50)
    180 HSFO - down from 471.79 to 462,29 USD/MT (-9.50)
    MGO         - down from 678.71 to 661.36 USD/MT (-17.35)


    On the forecast side, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that robust U.S. shale growth will underpin 2.0 million barrels per day (bpd) of non-OPEC supply growth this year, plus 1.7 million of non-OPEC output gains in 2019. That should more than meet demand growth. The agency also warned that even if the Iran-Venezuela supply gap is plugged, the market will be finely balanced next year, and vulnerable to prices rising higher in the event of further disruption.

    Russia and Saudi Arabia said ahead of OPEC meeting, that even if the current OPEC/NOPEC oil production cut deal goes to pieces, both largest oil producers will be willing to go it alone, suggesting that some kind of market-managing efforts may remain in place, even if Iran and Iraq begin to disturb the collaboration. At the moment it is reported that Saudi Arabia and Russia will propose an increase in production beginning from July 1, with the range of the suggested in-crease at between 500,000 bpd and 1.5 million bpd. Both countries increased their May oil production to calm the oil market.

    Meantime, some OPEC members (including Iran, Venezuela, and Iraq) are opposing an increase in production and argue that the pact should stay intact through the end of 2018, as planned. Iran’s OPEC representative said the country will veto any proposal for a production increase with the support of Venezuela and Iraq. Venezuela is already struggling with an inexorable decline in its oil production, which to a significant extent drove the overcompliance of the OPEC+ bloc with the agreed production cuts. Iraq, for its part, is eager to expand its production capacity but it will take time to do so. So, right now these three OPEC members are at a clear disadvantage to those capable of quickly restoring pre-agreement production levels.

    There are a few possibilities from the upcoming OPEC meeting. First, Saudi Arabia and Russia may convince the group to agree to an increase in output, and while everyone nominally is al-lowed to increase output a bit, the two top producers make up the biggest share of the increase. Another possibility is a breakdown in negotiations and Saudi Arabia and Russia go their own way, increasing output. Or, talks could breakdown and there is no change in output, although with the upside risk to prices, this seems unlikely.

    Venezuela’s production plummeted again in May, by 42,500 bpd from April to below 1.4 mil-lion bpd—1.392 million bpd. The IEA forecasts that Venezuela’s oil production could drop to just 800,000 bpd or even lower next year. Venezuela’s rig count number is in the 20s, while it needs it into above-40 territory to sustain production flat.

    The major Libyan oil ports of Ras Lanuf and Es Sider were closed and evacuated after armed brigades opposed to the eastern commander Khalifa Haftar stormed them, causing a production loss of around 260,000 barrels per day (bpd). The two facilities account for 40 percent of Libya’s oil exports. Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) said it had evacuated all staff from the two terminals as a precautionary measure. More than half the storage tanks at both terminals were badly damaged in previous fighting and have yet to be repaired, though there have been regular loadings from Es Sider.

    It was reported a dip in the number of active oil and gas rigs in the United States last week. Oil and gas rigs decreased by 3 rigs, with the number of oil rigs increasing by 1, and the number of gas rigs decreasing by 4. The oil and gas rig count now stands at 1,059—up 126 from this time last year.

    US oil production continues putting downward pressure on fuel prices, and for the week ending June 15, production reached 10.900 million bpd—close to 11 million bpd production that many had forecast for the year.

    The U.S. Federal Reserve announced another rate hike, which helped edge up the dollar to a new high for the year. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is heading in the other direction in an effort to keep sovereign bond yields under control. The ECB said it would keep interest rates low through at least next summer. The diverging policy paths for the two central banks points to a further strengthening of the dollar relative to the euro.

    India and China have discussed creating an oil buyers’ club to be able to negotiate better prices with oil exporting countries and will be looking to import more U.S. crude oil in order to reduce OPEC’s influence, both over the global oil market and over prices. India has been saying for months that oil prices have risen too much to be sustainable for many oil-importing countries.

    More crude oil is being stored on ships at sea in European waters than at any time in the past 18 months. A quarter of global floating storage is now located in European waters, compared to just 10 percent in March and April. The sudden increase in oil stored at sea is the result of Asian buyers raising up cargoes from the U.S., rather than from Nigeria, Angola and the Middle East.

    Sentiment on fuel prices remained mostly negative, as markets continue to fear OPEC, as its meeting could ease production curbs to offset falling supplies in Venezuela and an expected drop in Iran oil exports as U.S. sanctions loom.  So, all eyes are on what course of action OPEC will call for.  We expect OPEC will increase the output and so bunker prices may continue downward evolution next week.



     

     

     

     

     

     

    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2019 June 19

18:14 Port of Southampton signs sister port agreement with PortMiami
18:05 Unique Wärtsilä fresh water production system offers one ton per day fuel savings
17:51 Continued rail investment at the Port of Southampton accelerates air quality improvements
17:28 PGNiG confirms production potential of Poland’s largest gas field
17:03 IMRF announces new Board of Trustees
16:40 Small-size missile ship Orekhovo-Zuyevo, Black Sea Fleet, completes tasks in the Mediterranean Sea
16:02 Hapag-Lloyd announces GRI from Asia to East Coast South America
15:39 Vympel Shipyard launched first Grachonok-class special purpose boat for Federal National Guard Troops Service
15:02 Black Sea Mediterranean Express (BMX Service) Additional Gemlik Call
14:43 Baltic Workboats announces delivery of 100m fully electric ferry
14:21 RS participates in Global Fishery Forum
14:02 MOL and Japanese shipyards design Next Generation Coal carrier 'EeneX'
13:45 Igor Sharkov appointed Director of FESCO Branch Office in Vladivostok
13:26 FESCO opens seasonal transportation to ports of Chukotka
13:02 Van Oord awarded large contract for Mozambique LNG project
12:34 NIBULON Shipbuilding and Repair Yard starts constructing vessels of new project
12:12 ICS meets in Faroe Islands
11:58 Frigate Admiral Gorhskov of RF Navy's Northern Fleet sails through Panama Canal
11:37 Ship inspection platform Idwal urges investors to carry out due diligence on asset condition as standards decline
11:19 WMU signed MOU with Higher Institute of Maritime Studies, Morocco
11:12 Damen signs Phase II contract with International Organization for Migration for nine additional SAR 1906 search and rescue boats
10:55 ABB wins system package with Keppel for dredging contractor Van Oord
10:33 Lavna coal terminal to reach design capacity of 18 million tonnes in 2022
10:00 Bunker market sees mixed price movements at the port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
09:38 MABUX: Bunker Market this morning, June 19
09:32 Brent Crude futures price is up 0.03% to $62.16, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.22% to $54.23
09:15 Baltic Dry Index is up to 1,135 points

2019 June 18

18:36 Spotlighting IMO's actions on climate change
18:31 Transborders Energy signs joint study agreement with Kyushu Electric Power for FLNG Solution
18:06 Kim Heng Offshore & Marine Holdings signs MoU with HHC and Thaitan
18:03 Container service boost at Bristol Port
17:53 IMO and UN Environment – working together to keep the Mediterranean clean
17:36 ZIM introduces myZIM Personal Notifications
17:21 Incat launches a new 111-metre ferry for Spain
17:06 Hapag-Lloyd announces General Rate increase from Japan to Middle East
16:42 Nor-Shipping 2019 sets new records
16:20 Fincantieri and CNR present the results of six multidisciplinary research projects
16:04 Atlantic Towing buys Havyard 833 WE – build no 126
15:25 Live stream of IWW passenger transportation meeting, part of SmartTRANSPORT, starts on IAA PortNews website at 10:00, June 21
15:04 Port of Oakland approves Seaport Air Quality 2020 and Beyond Plan
14:33 Carnival Mardi Gras cruise ship hull assembly begins at Meyer Turku shipyard
14:02 Hapag-Lloyd announces FAK from East Asia to Europe and Mediterranean
13:30 Port of Singapore bags “Best Seaport in Asia” for 31st time and also “Best Green Seaport”
13:02 Major shipping banks to launch the Poseidon Principles in line with IMO’s Greenhouse Gas strategy
12:41 Russia's Main Department of State Expertise approves revised project for Phase 1 of dry bulk terminal in Taman
12:28 Bunker prices show slight changes at the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
12:24 Jan De Nul secures Formosa 2 OWF contract in Taiwan and underlines its expansion in Asian OWFs
12:05 AtoB@C starts to offer port towage and related services in Port of Raahe
11:39 East-Siberian Inland Navigation Company launches bunkering tanker of Project RT37 for Baikal
11:16 Regional Manager Simon Neo set to leave IBIA
10:52 IBIA board member elected President of the Panama Maritime Chamber
10:47 NAVTOR integrates environmental regulations into voyage planning with Total Marine Solutions MOU
10:27 Maritime spatial planning in the Baltic Sea region easier with BASEMAPS
09:53 Brent Crude futures price is down 0.05% to $60.91, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.1% to $51.88
09:35 MABUX: Bunker Market this morning June, 18
09:15 Baltic Dry Index is up to 1,093 points

2019 June 17

18:24 USCG saves six people, tows disabled vessel in Port Etches
17:59 Denis Krylov appointed General Director of Gazpromneft-Sakhalin
17:28 China and South Korea agree on ballast water exchange rules
17:04 Mermaid Maritime borrows a loan of USD 65 mln to extend the financing of two vessels