• 2018 August 16 14:27

    MABUX: Bunker prices may change irregular next week

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World oil indexes have changed irregular with no firm trend during the week. The price fluctuations were likely caused by early Saudi Arabia reports that it had curbed output instead of increasing it as was expected, increased tensions between Turkey and the United States, and reports of multiple unsold crude oil cargoes around the Atlantic Basin, with producers including Russia and Nigeria cutting oil prices for certain grades.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs), demonstrated directed downward trend in the period of Aug.09 - Aug.16:

    380 HSFO - down from 438.21 to 423.93 USD/MT (-14.28)
    180 HSFO - down from 485.21 to 471.50 USD/MT (-13.71)
    MGO         - down from 672.43 to 669.21 USD/MT  (-3.22)


    The IEA reported that higher output from Saudi Arabia and Russia have tamped down concerns about supply. The partial recovery in Libya has also eased the danger to the oil market. The IEA slightly revised up its forecast for demand growth in 2019 to 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), up 0.1 million bpd from last month. For this year, however, demand growth slowed in the second and third quarter, after a blistering first quarter. But it could be temporary taking into consideration Iran sanctions set to take effect in November.

    OPEC in turn stated in its monthly report that oil demand growth in 2019 will be lower than originally expected. Global oil demand growth for 2019 was lowered by 20,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million bpd while non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 was revised up by 30,000 bpd to 2.13 million bpd. Meanwhile global oil production in July rose by 680,000 bpd, while total production of OPEC countries rose by 41,000 bpd to 32.32 million bpd despite recent cuts in supply from Saudi Arabia. The boost in production was due to increase in production from Kuwait, Nigeria and the UAE. Saudi Arabia production fell by 200,000 bpd to 10.288 million bpd.

    New U.S. sanctions on Russia will take effect later this month, banning the export of sensitive goods and technologies. Russia depends on imported technology and equipment for much of its oil sector. The sanctions, particularly if Europe follows suit, could be damaging, as it would take time to switch over to Asian suppliers or develop home-grown technology.

    Global trade war continues. U.S. President Donald Trump announced last week that he planned on doubling the steel and aluminum tariffs on Turkey. As a result, the lira is down 30 percent over the past week and 50 percent since the end of July. President Tayyip Erdogan said on Aug.13 he expected attacks on Turkey's economy to continue but predicted the lira would return to rational levels soon. Erdogan has described the lira's fall as the consequence of a plot rather than economic fundamentals. Turkey is a minor player in the energy markets aside from acting as a transit country. The direct impact on global demand for oil and fuel is thus negligible. However, if the crisis spread to other, larger countries, demand could be hit considerably.

    The U.S. Administration expects that it will be able to persuade Iran’s oil customers to cut their crude imports from Tehran by as much as 1 million bpd. This reduction would be equal to roughly half of the average Iranian oil exports over the past year, but well below the U.S. target of reducing the Islamic Republic’s oil sales to zero. Nevertheless, 1 million bpd of global oil supply choked off in early November may boost oil and fuel prices.

    Despite having proposed to include American crude oil under its list of tariff targets, China left oil off of its list last week when it imposed $16 billion worth of tariffs on U.S. products. The decision was a reflection of China’s import needs, particularly with supplies from Venezuela in decline and supplies from Iran potentially disrupted. Still, Chinese refiners have begun ratcheting down purchases of American oil and LNG anyway, in anticipation of potential tariffs. The trade fight helped push down oil prices last week, as the oil market grew concerned about the impact on the global economy.

    India has offered to slash its purchases of oil from Iran by half if the U.S. grants it an exemption on the rest. India is Iran’s second largest buyer of oil, and the extent of the outages in Iran will largely come down to decisions made in New Delhi and Beijing.

    The number of working oil rigs in the U.S. rose by 10 to 869 last week, the highest level since March 2015. Producers have recently announced billions of dollars of new investments in the Permian Basin and elsewhere.

    Demand for middle distillates (diesel, marine gasoil, and jet fuel) is expected to surge ahead of an upcoming stricter regulation on the fuels used by the shipping industry. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set January 1, 2020, as the starting date from which only low-sulfur fuel oil (0.5%) will be allowed to be used for ships. The severe restrictions on fuel oil’s sulfur content-aimed at reducing emissions-will drive increased demand for middle distillates such as diesel and marine gasoil, which in turn will push up demand for crude oil. This may boost crude oil demand by additional 1.5 million bpd, potentially sending oil prices to $90 a barrel in 2020.

    Inventories of middle distillates-one of the most important refinery products-are also closely correlated with oil price trends and with the shape of the oil futures curve, so the pace of distillates demand and their stock levels could be the key determinant for the oil and fuel price changes through the next two years.

    We expect bunker prices could be rather volatile and may demonstrate irregular changes next week.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2019 February 22

12:03 Algoma announces purchase of additional product tanker
11:30 Van Oord is one of the founding partners and main sponsor of PortXL
11:02 Fincantieri and Abu Dhabi Shipbuilding reach an agreement to cooperate in the UAE shipbuilding segment
10:30 Mitsubishi Shipbuilding holds christening ceremony for next-generation LNG carrier "MARVEL CRANE"
10:20 Port of Yeisk handled 159,000 tonnes of cargo year-to-date
10:00 CMA CGM implements Port Congestion Surcharge from Med and North Europe to Canada East Coast
09:58 The Netherlands ratifies ship recycling convention
09:35 Brent Crude futures price is down 0.24% to $66.91, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.16% to $56.87
09:17 Baltic Dry Index is up to 630 points

2019 February 21

18:33 AML’s MVP200 selected for new Swedish “RV Svea”
18:16 ​Shearwater GeoServices and TGS partner for major Brazil survey
18:03 NYK selected as a White 500 company for third consecutive year
17:55 Rosmorport to dredge 12.1 million cbm of material in 2019
17:34 Boskalis expands market position in marine survey through acquisition Horizon
17:29 GE to supply LM2500 gas turbine auxiliary equipment for Indian Navy’s P17A frigates
17:11 Hydrographic Company to get 15 new vessels by 2024
17:05 Rotterdam port innovation programme PortXL participants announced
17:03 H.H. Sheikh Theyab updated on ADNOC L&S strategy to become a global shipping champion
16:14 SCHOTTEL presents new shallow-water thruster SPJ 30 up to 150 kW
15:35 Forth Ports Group receives planning consent for new terminal at the Port of Tilbury
15:16 Algoma announces the Algoma Conveyor is headed for Canada
14:32 A.P. Moller - Maersk accelerates transformation and grows revenue in 2018
14:11 Teekay Tankers reports fourth quarter and annual 2018 results
13:46 Santos posts it 2018 net profit of $630 million
13:15 Gazprom Neft demonstrates solid growth across all key financial indicators in 2018
13:13 A.P. Moller - Maersk initiates demerger and separate listing of Maersk Drilling
12:49 ESPS Relampago’s crew carried out maritime training exercises with the Seychelles Coastguard
11:57 First meeting of Eastern Partnership LNG Network takes place in Warsaw
11:28 42 vessels escorted by icebreakers in eastern part of Gulf of Finland during 24 hours on February 20-21
11:03 The UK publishes draft UK MRV legislation following Brexit
10:39 Taganrog Sea Commercial Port spent USD 60,500 under its social programme in 2018
10:16 IMO treaties ratified by Guyana
09:54 Allocations of Taganrog Sea Commercial Port for its environmental programme in 2018 totaled USD 96,400
09:31 Brent Crude futures price is up 0.18% to $67.2, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.51% to $57.45
09:15 Baltic Dry Index is down to 622 points

2019 February 20

18:13 Klaipėdos nafta carried out the 10th operation of reloading LNG from a gas carrier to ground storage tanks
17:52 VNIIR-Progress St. Petersburg supplies electrical equipment for Atomflot icebreaker
17:28 Documents on concession model for Taman dry cargo area project to be submitted to RF Govt in March 2019
17:04 Cammell Laird stages ‘float-off’ for new £10m ferry for Red Funnel
16:46 VTMS, AIS and Pilotage Service on the Northern Sea Route to remain under Rosmorport’s control
16:25 NOVATEK eyes arranging LNG bunkering in Sabetta
16:04 Maersk enhances Asia-Europe network to further improve schedule reliability
15:43 Decision made on transfer of FSUE Hydrographic Company to Rosatom Corporation
15:21 Euronav sells LR1 Genmar Сompatriot
14:54 SIA Extron Baltic receives award for rapid growth in the Port of Riga
14:30 NOVATEK announces consolidated IFRS results for year ended 31 December 2018
14:02 COSCO SHIPPING Lines and Bolloré Transport & Logistics sign a MoU to develop new synergies
13:39 ABP partners with Grimsby-based Maritime Academy
13:15 Toll unveils new Australian ship
12:48 Increasing numbers of cruise ships making their maiden calls to Southampton
12:22 Transport Week 2019 welcomes Kalmar among its sponsors
12:01 First diesel-electric Damen Shoalbuster 3514 DP2, IMO Tier 3 ordered by Herman Sr
11:50 20 vessels escorted by icebreakers in eastern part of Gulf of Finland during 24 hours on February 19-20
11:33 DP World acquires leading European transportation and logistics provider P&O Ferries
11:09 Port of Oakland to get three new cranes
10:47 Brent Crude futures price is down 0.3% to $66.25, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.02% to $56.44
10:35 2nd Hydraulic Engineering Structures and Dredging Congress kicks off in Moscow
10:18 Baltic Dry Index is down to 635 points
10:00 IMO Secretary-General urges all aboard for GHG reduction
09:34 Baltiysky Zavod completed shaping ice belt of nuclear-powered icebreaker Ural of Project 22220