• 2018 August 16 14:27

    MABUX: Bunker prices may change irregular next week

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World oil indexes have changed irregular with no firm trend during the week. The price fluctuations were likely caused by early Saudi Arabia reports that it had curbed output instead of increasing it as was expected, increased tensions between Turkey and the United States, and reports of multiple unsold crude oil cargoes around the Atlantic Basin, with producers including Russia and Nigeria cutting oil prices for certain grades.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs), demonstrated directed downward trend in the period of Aug.09 - Aug.16:

    380 HSFO - down from 438.21 to 423.93 USD/MT (-14.28)
    180 HSFO - down from 485.21 to 471.50 USD/MT (-13.71)
    MGO         - down from 672.43 to 669.21 USD/MT  (-3.22)


    The IEA reported that higher output from Saudi Arabia and Russia have tamped down concerns about supply. The partial recovery in Libya has also eased the danger to the oil market. The IEA slightly revised up its forecast for demand growth in 2019 to 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), up 0.1 million bpd from last month. For this year, however, demand growth slowed in the second and third quarter, after a blistering first quarter. But it could be temporary taking into consideration Iran sanctions set to take effect in November.

    OPEC in turn stated in its monthly report that oil demand growth in 2019 will be lower than originally expected. Global oil demand growth for 2019 was lowered by 20,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million bpd while non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 was revised up by 30,000 bpd to 2.13 million bpd. Meanwhile global oil production in July rose by 680,000 bpd, while total production of OPEC countries rose by 41,000 bpd to 32.32 million bpd despite recent cuts in supply from Saudi Arabia. The boost in production was due to increase in production from Kuwait, Nigeria and the UAE. Saudi Arabia production fell by 200,000 bpd to 10.288 million bpd.

    New U.S. sanctions on Russia will take effect later this month, banning the export of sensitive goods and technologies. Russia depends on imported technology and equipment for much of its oil sector. The sanctions, particularly if Europe follows suit, could be damaging, as it would take time to switch over to Asian suppliers or develop home-grown technology.

    Global trade war continues. U.S. President Donald Trump announced last week that he planned on doubling the steel and aluminum tariffs on Turkey. As a result, the lira is down 30 percent over the past week and 50 percent since the end of July. President Tayyip Erdogan said on Aug.13 he expected attacks on Turkey's economy to continue but predicted the lira would return to rational levels soon. Erdogan has described the lira's fall as the consequence of a plot rather than economic fundamentals. Turkey is a minor player in the energy markets aside from acting as a transit country. The direct impact on global demand for oil and fuel is thus negligible. However, if the crisis spread to other, larger countries, demand could be hit considerably.

    The U.S. Administration expects that it will be able to persuade Iran’s oil customers to cut their crude imports from Tehran by as much as 1 million bpd. This reduction would be equal to roughly half of the average Iranian oil exports over the past year, but well below the U.S. target of reducing the Islamic Republic’s oil sales to zero. Nevertheless, 1 million bpd of global oil supply choked off in early November may boost oil and fuel prices.

    Despite having proposed to include American crude oil under its list of tariff targets, China left oil off of its list last week when it imposed $16 billion worth of tariffs on U.S. products. The decision was a reflection of China’s import needs, particularly with supplies from Venezuela in decline and supplies from Iran potentially disrupted. Still, Chinese refiners have begun ratcheting down purchases of American oil and LNG anyway, in anticipation of potential tariffs. The trade fight helped push down oil prices last week, as the oil market grew concerned about the impact on the global economy.

    India has offered to slash its purchases of oil from Iran by half if the U.S. grants it an exemption on the rest. India is Iran’s second largest buyer of oil, and the extent of the outages in Iran will largely come down to decisions made in New Delhi and Beijing.

    The number of working oil rigs in the U.S. rose by 10 to 869 last week, the highest level since March 2015. Producers have recently announced billions of dollars of new investments in the Permian Basin and elsewhere.

    Demand for middle distillates (diesel, marine gasoil, and jet fuel) is expected to surge ahead of an upcoming stricter regulation on the fuels used by the shipping industry. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set January 1, 2020, as the starting date from which only low-sulfur fuel oil (0.5%) will be allowed to be used for ships. The severe restrictions on fuel oil’s sulfur content-aimed at reducing emissions-will drive increased demand for middle distillates such as diesel and marine gasoil, which in turn will push up demand for crude oil. This may boost crude oil demand by additional 1.5 million bpd, potentially sending oil prices to $90 a barrel in 2020.

    Inventories of middle distillates-one of the most important refinery products-are also closely correlated with oil price trends and with the shape of the oil futures curve, so the pace of distillates demand and their stock levels could be the key determinant for the oil and fuel price changes through the next two years.

    We expect bunker prices could be rather volatile and may demonstrate irregular changes next week.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2019 July 15

17:58 IAPH welcomes new Associate Member from Switzerland
17:33 NIBULON transported 3.5 million tonnes of cargoes by water transport
17:06 Hapag-Lloyd to introduce new Middle East-India-Africa Express Service
16:07 Desktop Just-In-Time trial yields positive results in cutting emissions
15:44 Prevention of marine pollution in South Asia discussed at regional workshop
15:15 Cargotec’s MacGregor receives clearance from the Chinese competition regulator for the acquisition of the marine and offshore businesses of TTS Group
14:56 Murmansk Sea Fishing Port handled 116,000 tonnes of cargo in 6M’2019, down 35.5% Y-o-Y
14:39 RS issues revised Rules for Classification and Construction of ships carrying liquefied gas
14:15 SEACOR Marine announces departure of Chief Operating Officer
13:53 Sever Bay Port terminal on Taimyr included into RF area planning scheme
13:32 MAN Energy Solutions, DSME and HSD Engine sign strategic agreement on engine digitization
13:01 CargoSmart announces GSBN Service Agreements with CMA CGM, COSCO SHIPPING LINES, COSCO SHIPPING Ports, Hapag-Lloyd, Hutchison Ports, OOCL, Port of Qingdao, PSA International and Shanghai International Port Group
12:48 Average wholesale prices for М-100 HFO up to RUB 16,149 in RF spot market
12:30 ABS and MOL sign MOU to build up to 14 next generation gas carriers
12:14 DSME Smart Ship Solution approved by LR
11:52 Atomenergomash JSC and Aker Arctic Technology Inc sign memorandum of understanding
11:43 MEYER intensifies partnership with Stengel
11:27 SailGP partners with Port of Southampton to deliver Cowes SailGP Tech Area
11:01 Rashid Sharipov elected as Chairman of NCSP BoD
10:25 MABUX: Bunker market this morning, July 15
10:18 Brent Crude futures price is up 0.01% to $66.73, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.15% to $60.12
09:54 KN enhances portfolio of loaded oil products and rendered services
09:30 Throughput of port Shanghai (China) in Jan-June’19 declined by 2.1% to 272.29 million tonnes
09:13 Baltic Dry Index is up to 1,865 points

2019 July 14

16:09 USCG coordinates rescue of fishermen 1300 miles southwest of San Diego
15:22 Sanmar Shipyards strengthens its executive team
13:21 MOL sets conditions for issue of 'sustainability' bonds
12:11 SCHOTTEL and ULSTEIN with new cooperation to optimise ship operations with digital services
11:56 Navios Containers promotes Erifili Tsironi as CFO
10:55 2020 Bulkers Ltd. inks chartering agreements with Koch for three Newcastlemax dry bulk carriers

2019 July 13

15:19 Japanese fishing company convicted of obstruction of justice and falsifying records to cover up illegal oil and garbage pollution
13:52 HII completes flight deck on aircraft carrier John F. Kennedy
12:28 SHI wins orders for eco-friendly and highly efficient S-Max tankers
11:23 VT Halter Marine bags $2.9 million contract for U.S. Navy CMAMP program study

2019 July 12

18:19 Shantou China Merchants Port Group takes delivery of eight Kalmar empty container handlers
18:01 Safety of ships and fishing gets a boost in Ghana
17:44 IMO and FAO join efforts to reduce marine plastic litter from fishing vessels
17:26 Throughput of Russian seaports in 6M'2019 grew by 2.8% to 409.0 million tonnes of cargo (detalization)
17:03 SEA\LNG releases study showing benefits of LNG
16:42 North-Western Shipping Company carried 2.3 million tonnes of cargo in H1’19
16:25 Throughput of port Kaliningrad in Jan-June’2019 fell by 19% Y-o-Y to 5.82 million tonnes
16:03 Diana Shipping announces increase of purchase price and extension of tender offer for shares of common stock
15:24 Throughput of port Vysotsk in Jan-June'2019 climbed by 5% Y-o-Y to 9.44 million tonnes
15:03 Port of Long Beach cargo volume tops 677,000 TEUs in June 2019
14:31 Sredne-Nevsky Shipyard lays down yet another minesweeper of Project 12700
14:03 MOL schedules a major renovation of its operated cruise ship, the Nippon Maru
13:02 Höegh LNG executes 18 month interim LNGC timecharter with Cheniere for Höegh Galleon
12:52 NOVATEK’s hydrocarbon production totaled 296.1 million boe in H1’2019
12:00 Throughput of port Primorsk in Jan-June’2019 grew by 11% Y-o-Y to 29.83 million tonnes
11:23 Damen signs maintenance contract with Netherlands Ministry of Defence
11:01 Port of Ust-Luga handled 54.334 million tonnes in 6M’19, up 11% Y-o-Y
10:40 Throughput of Port St. Petersburg in 6M'2019 climbed by 1% Y-o-Y to 30.07 million tonnes
10:36 Belships to expand its fleet with 20th Ultramax newbuilding in 2021
09:54 Bunker prices are going up at the port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
09:38 MABUX: Bunker market this morning, July 12
09:35 Brent Crude futures price is up 0.59% to $66.91, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.53% to $60.52
09:18 Baltic Dry Index is up to 1,816 points

2019 July 11

18:36 Denmark starts developing the new digital Register of Shipping
18:13 Naval Energies and Hitachi Zosen Corporation in floating wind energy agreement
18:06 Northwest Seaport Alliance breaks ground on $500M Terminal 5 modernization