• 2018 August 16 14:27

    MABUX: Bunker prices may change irregular next week

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World oil indexes have changed irregular with no firm trend during the week. The price fluctuations were likely caused by early Saudi Arabia reports that it had curbed output instead of increasing it as was expected, increased tensions between Turkey and the United States, and reports of multiple unsold crude oil cargoes around the Atlantic Basin, with producers including Russia and Nigeria cutting oil prices for certain grades.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs), demonstrated directed downward trend in the period of Aug.09 - Aug.16:

    380 HSFO - down from 438.21 to 423.93 USD/MT (-14.28)
    180 HSFO - down from 485.21 to 471.50 USD/MT (-13.71)
    MGO         - down from 672.43 to 669.21 USD/MT  (-3.22)


    The IEA reported that higher output from Saudi Arabia and Russia have tamped down concerns about supply. The partial recovery in Libya has also eased the danger to the oil market. The IEA slightly revised up its forecast for demand growth in 2019 to 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), up 0.1 million bpd from last month. For this year, however, demand growth slowed in the second and third quarter, after a blistering first quarter. But it could be temporary taking into consideration Iran sanctions set to take effect in November.

    OPEC in turn stated in its monthly report that oil demand growth in 2019 will be lower than originally expected. Global oil demand growth for 2019 was lowered by 20,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million bpd while non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 was revised up by 30,000 bpd to 2.13 million bpd. Meanwhile global oil production in July rose by 680,000 bpd, while total production of OPEC countries rose by 41,000 bpd to 32.32 million bpd despite recent cuts in supply from Saudi Arabia. The boost in production was due to increase in production from Kuwait, Nigeria and the UAE. Saudi Arabia production fell by 200,000 bpd to 10.288 million bpd.

    New U.S. sanctions on Russia will take effect later this month, banning the export of sensitive goods and technologies. Russia depends on imported technology and equipment for much of its oil sector. The sanctions, particularly if Europe follows suit, could be damaging, as it would take time to switch over to Asian suppliers or develop home-grown technology.

    Global trade war continues. U.S. President Donald Trump announced last week that he planned on doubling the steel and aluminum tariffs on Turkey. As a result, the lira is down 30 percent over the past week and 50 percent since the end of July. President Tayyip Erdogan said on Aug.13 he expected attacks on Turkey's economy to continue but predicted the lira would return to rational levels soon. Erdogan has described the lira's fall as the consequence of a plot rather than economic fundamentals. Turkey is a minor player in the energy markets aside from acting as a transit country. The direct impact on global demand for oil and fuel is thus negligible. However, if the crisis spread to other, larger countries, demand could be hit considerably.

    The U.S. Administration expects that it will be able to persuade Iran’s oil customers to cut their crude imports from Tehran by as much as 1 million bpd. This reduction would be equal to roughly half of the average Iranian oil exports over the past year, but well below the U.S. target of reducing the Islamic Republic’s oil sales to zero. Nevertheless, 1 million bpd of global oil supply choked off in early November may boost oil and fuel prices.

    Despite having proposed to include American crude oil under its list of tariff targets, China left oil off of its list last week when it imposed $16 billion worth of tariffs on U.S. products. The decision was a reflection of China’s import needs, particularly with supplies from Venezuela in decline and supplies from Iran potentially disrupted. Still, Chinese refiners have begun ratcheting down purchases of American oil and LNG anyway, in anticipation of potential tariffs. The trade fight helped push down oil prices last week, as the oil market grew concerned about the impact on the global economy.

    India has offered to slash its purchases of oil from Iran by half if the U.S. grants it an exemption on the rest. India is Iran’s second largest buyer of oil, and the extent of the outages in Iran will largely come down to decisions made in New Delhi and Beijing.

    The number of working oil rigs in the U.S. rose by 10 to 869 last week, the highest level since March 2015. Producers have recently announced billions of dollars of new investments in the Permian Basin and elsewhere.

    Demand for middle distillates (diesel, marine gasoil, and jet fuel) is expected to surge ahead of an upcoming stricter regulation on the fuels used by the shipping industry. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set January 1, 2020, as the starting date from which only low-sulfur fuel oil (0.5%) will be allowed to be used for ships. The severe restrictions on fuel oil’s sulfur content-aimed at reducing emissions-will drive increased demand for middle distillates such as diesel and marine gasoil, which in turn will push up demand for crude oil. This may boost crude oil demand by additional 1.5 million bpd, potentially sending oil prices to $90 a barrel in 2020.

    Inventories of middle distillates-one of the most important refinery products-are also closely correlated with oil price trends and with the shape of the oil futures curve, so the pace of distillates demand and their stock levels could be the key determinant for the oil and fuel price changes through the next two years.

    We expect bunker prices could be rather volatile and may demonstrate irregular changes next week.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2018 November 21

09:35 Bunker prices continue decreasing at the Port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
09:14 Baltic Dry Index is down to 1,003 points

2018 November 20

18:21 Igor Levitin suggests separating positions of Deputy Transport Minister and head of Rosmorrechflot
18:06 MAN Energy Solutions wins order to supply the engine for a new dredger in southern China
17:53 Workshop aimed at building oil pollution preparedness and response capacity held in the Republic of Guinea
17:36 “K” Line announces delivery of new LPG carrier for Gyxis Corporation
17:18 Atomflot: first delivery of fish by NSR expected in summer-autumn season of 2019
17:04 Diana Shipping announces time charter contract for m/v Sideris GS with Berge Bulk
16:47 Rashid Sharipov as Chairman of the Board of Directors NCSP BoD
16:25 NIBULON Shipbuilding and Repair Yard launched second POSS-115 Project tug
16:04 OOCL announces improvements to Asia – Middle East 1 and Asia – Middle East 3
15:50 Storage area line launched at Vostochny Port’s Phase 3
15:34 New overpass at Maasvlakte 2 opens
15:03 Port of Oakland works to reduce impact of trucks
14:33 The port of Marseille Fos is engaged in reducing shipemissions by developing LNG as a marine fuel
14:03 Teesport Intermodal Rail Terminal celebrates fourth anniversary
13:43 12th Transport of Russia Forum and Exhibition opens in Moscow
13:10 Damen signs with Rimorchiatori Spezzini for two new Damen ASD Tugs 2411
13:02 Bunker prices are going down in the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
12:38 CCCC Dredging supports the 6th Forum of Dredging Companies as its Sponsor
11:54 Concession agreement signed for construction of coal terminal “Lavna”
11:30 OOCL introduces the new West Africa Service 2
10:45 Major ASW ship Severomorsk of RF Navy's Northern Fleet escorts Indian civilian vessel in the Gulf of Aden
10:23 Russian Railways’ BoD makes decision on discounts for cargo transportation in 2019
10:00 Brent Crude futures price down 0.39% to $66.53, Light Sweet Crude – down 0.24% to $57.06
09:19 Baltic Dry Index is down to 1,023 points
08:51 Valenciaport container vilume increased by 4.78% in the last twelve months
07:51 Klaveness Combination Carriers declares option for sixth combination carrier newbuild

2018 November 19

18:37 IMO holds workshop boosting maritime security in Gulf of Guinea
18:05 MOL conducts tabletop drill for LNG carrier
17:49 Hapag-Lloyd to start new Asia – Gulf Service (AGS)
17:43 Busan Port Authority signs Letter of Intent for the Maasvlakte Distribution Park West
17:01 Ocean Network Express expands the partnership of Asia - South America
16:32 BIMCO standard ship repair contracts overhauled
16:05 Port of Hamburg railborne container transport up 4.3 percent in the first nine months of 2018
15:44 FESCO and DB Cargo plan to launch joint transit shipments from China to Europe via Kaliningrad
15:10 Costamare announces the acquisition of the York Capital majority interest in five 14,000 TEU containerships
14:56 Half a billion tones of Kazakhstan oil lifted from CPC Marine Terminal
14:47 Saipem 7000 semi-submersible at Damen Verolme Rotterdam for DPS upgrade
14:33 OpenRisk launches guideline for risk management at sea to improve response to accidental spills
13:59 NCSP Group's consolidated cargo turnover for January-September totaled 105,253 thousand tons
13:11 Average wholesale prices for М-100 HFO down to RUB 19,660 in RF spot market
12:47 ABP invests over £1 million on a rooftop solar project at the Port of Goole
12:18 Damen supports 2nd Dredging and Hydraulic Engineering Structures Congress as its General Sponsor
12:00 The Fjords plans to add another all electric passenger vessel to its fleet
11:36 TOTE Services' Philip Greene Jr. retires next year
11:02 Damen Shipyards Group celebrates Multraship Carrousel RAVE Tug winning KNVTS Ship of the Year Award
10:44 Port of Oakland cargo volume up 3.9 percent in August - October 2018
10:43 Throughput of Port Vysotsky up 9.4% to 6.34 million tonnes in 10M’18
10:19 Brent Crude futures price up 0.69% to $67.22, Light Sweet Crude – up 1.02% to $57.26
09:57 Media Group PortNews issues special edition of its magazine for Transport Week 2018
09:35 Rosmorrechflot reduced operation period of locks in Volga-Don Basin
09:18 Baltic Dry Index is up to 1,031 points

2018 November 18

16:21 Wellington ferry skipper fined $1,688 after grounding
15:04 SFL continues its fleet renewal programme, to sell its 2002-built VLCC
14:37 Austal delivers Expeditionary Fast Transport ship USNS Burlington to U.S. Navy
14:26 Lockheed Martin gets $282M contract mod for four MMSCs project
14:13 Ulstein Verft starts construction of largest hybrid ship for Color Line
13:41 Klaveness extends contract of affreightment with South32 Marketing Pte Ltd
12:06 PaxOcean wins three newbuilding contracts from Royal IHC