• 2019 September 11 16:41

    DNV GL releases Maritime Forecast to 2050


    DNV GL-Maritime has released the third edition of its Maritime Forecast to 2050 at London International Shipping Week 2019 (LISW). The forecast examines the future of the shipping industry in a rapidly changing global energy landscape. This year’s report focusses on the challenge of reducing the carbon intensity of the global fleet to meet the ambitious targets set by the imo’s greenhouse gas reduction (ghg) strategy.

    “Existing technology can deliver the future we desire – including meeting the 1.5°C target set out in the Paris Agreement,” said Remi Eriksen, Group President and CEO of DNV GL. “So far, support for the energy transition has been too sporadic. We need a broad and coordinated policy agenda that supports new technologies as they emerge and sustains that support through the build-out phase.”

    A combination of external market pressure and the ambitious direction set by IMO means that the challenge of decarbonization has been laid squarely on shipping’s doorstep. To answer the question of how shipping will rise to meet the challenge, this year’s Maritime Forecast examines how the world fleet measures up in terms of decarbonization and looks at different strategies and pathways the industry can take to reach this goal.

    The Maritime Forecast to 2050 analyses three regulatory scenarios (continuing under current policies, regulations becoming gradually stricter, or very strict regulations introduced towards the end of the 2050 deadline) and how these could affect the transition to low and carbon neutral fuels. Improvements in general energy efficiency in on-board operations is also included as an essential part of reducing emissions.

    “One of the key components to meet the decarbonization challenge is fuel flexibility, as the fuels of today may not be the fuels of tomorrow,” said Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CEO of DNV GL – Maritime. “This means having a picture of the entire fuel ecosystem is vital, as owners, operators, and the industry itself will have a much tougher time adapting to a low-carbon future if they are locked into a single choice.”

    Fuel flexibility and technologies to bridge changing fuel usage have been identified in the Forecast as essential strategies for both individual owners and the shipping industry to adapt to the energy transition and prepare for a low carbon future. In the deep-sea segment especially, dual-fuel solutions and alternative fuel “ready” solutions could smooth this transition, by laying the groundwork for a future retrofit. Combined with bridging technologies such as adaptable storage tanks, onboard systems and shore-side fuel infrastructure, this could give the industry more options as new fuels and technologies emerge.

    “Ships built today will have to compete with vessels coming onto the market in five, ten or 15 years’ time, and must consider future standards to remain competitive,” said Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen. “Considering the uncertain future that lies ahead, failing to be future-proof in the newbuilding phase could lead to that asset being stranded in the not so distant future. In addition, CO2 emissions could become an important rate differentiator and we have already seen forward-looking charterers start down this road.”

    The Forecast shows that the uptake of low-carbon and carbon-neutral fuels is essential to meeting IMO GHG goals, with carbon-neutral fuels having to supply 30–40% of the global fleet’s total energy by 2050. Under different regulatory pathways, however, the model predicts that a variety of fuels could come to the fore. In all of the pathways, liquefied methane (from both fossil and non-fossil sources) provides a large part (40–80%) of the fuel mix at 2050. The Forecast also suggests that in the deep-sea sector, ammonia, biodiesel, liquid biogas and electrofuels are promising carbon neutral options, with battery, hybrid, and hydrogen solutions being potential options for the short-sea segment.

    The ongoing energy transition is starting to reshape the shipping industry, with much uncertainty on the way to 2050. DNV GL’s Maritime Forecast to 2050 hopes to offer the industry a vision of the changes ahead, offering guidance, highlighting trends, and providing valuable insights for maritime stakeholders. The Maritime Forecast to 2050 is part of a suite of Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) reports produced by DNV GL. The ETO has designed, expanded and refined a model of the world’s energy system encompassing demand and supply of energy globally, and the use and exchange of energy between and within ten world regions.

    ABOUT DNV GL
    Driven by our purpose of safeguarding life, property and the environment, DNV GL enables organizations to advance the safety and sustainability of their business. We provide classification, technical assurance, software and independent expert advisory services to the maritime, oil & gas and energy industries. We also provide certification services to customers across a wide range of industries. Operating in more than 100 countries, our professionals are dedicated to helping our customers make the world safer, smarter and greener.

    ABOUT DNV GL – MARITIME
     DNV GL is the world’s leading classification society and a recognized advisor for the maritime industry. We enhance safety, quality, energy efficiency and environmental performance of the global shipping industry – across all vessel types and offshore structures. We invest heavily in research and development to find solutions, together with the industry, that address strategic, operational or regulatory challenges.




2019 September 20

13:30 Damen Shipyards Group is ready to ensure construction of electric water buses for rivers and canals of Saint-Petersburg and Russia
13:12 MSC Cruises and Fincantieri unveil further details of MSC Seashore at coin ceremony
12:24 Victor Olersky sees promising future of electric river passenger ships in Saint-Petersburg and in Russia
12:09 Algoma Central Corporation announces agreement to acquire Croatian-built vessel
11:28 Specifications for 0.50% sulphur fuels and the PAS from ISO: IBIA explains
11:09 GTT obtains Approval in Principle from Bureau Veritas for the Mark III Flex technology on ice-breaking LNG carriers
10:52 IBIA and S&P Global Platts collaborate to help shipping industry comply with IMO 2020
10:31 Workshop for training on emergency response, preparation and planning held in Manila
10:09 Van Oord and Shell test the use of biofuel on trailing suction hopper dredger HAM 316
09:50 State Duma ratifies Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea
09:33 Brent Crude futures price is up 0.20% to $63.73, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.98% to $58.7
09:25 Lloyd’s Register, China Merchants, GTT, CNOOC, DSIC form jv to design LNG-fuelled VLCC
09:17 Baltic Dry Index is down to 2,192 points
08:58 MABUX: Bunker Market this morning, Sept 20

2019 September 19

18:04 Bibby Marine Services takes the next step to optimize walk-to-work operations
17:56 Marinet approves Poseidon maritime cyber security project
17:37 American Ethane reveals plans to order 17 VLECs
17:34 Wärtsilä’s Board of Directors decided on the distribution of the second dividend instalment
17:22 Marinet approves T2OT project for high accuracy positioning of seagoing vessels
17:04 VARD secures advanced stern trawler contract with Luntos
16:50 Average wholesale prices for М-100 HFO down to RUB 14,328 in RF spot market
16:34 Zeebrugge port authority invests in new 1,071 meter quay wall
16:04 RINA to classify Swedish Maritime Administration fleet
15:53 Marinet set to establish exports support center in Finland in 2020
15:34 MacGregor secures orders worth more than EUR 20 million for projects in Europe and Asia
15:05 Wärtsilä foresees a lower result for 2019
14:31 North Pole ice-resistant platform presented by Admiralteiskie Verfi at NEVA 2019
14:09 ABS announces LNG Cargo Ready notation for ethane carriers at Gastech 2019
13:46 Hyundai Heavy Industries receives AIP for new LPG carrier design
13:03 Bunker prices go up at the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
12:40 ABS and AEC сollaborate on newbuild VLEC fleet
12:17 Murmansk Sea Fishing Port handled 171,200 tonnes of cargo in 8M’2019, down 28.5% Y-o-Y
11:58 PortNews-TV offers video on naming ceremony for PortNews tanker
11:36 International symposium on Anthropogenic Underwater Noise held in Hamburg on 10 September
11:09 LR awards DSME AiP for 98,000 m3 VLEC design with High MnA steel tank
10:42 Ships of RF Navy’s Caspian flotilla take part in Tsentr 2019 maneuvers
10:09 Singapore and Panama ink MoU to strengthen maritime relations
09:51 Brent Crude futures price is up 0.20% to $63.73, Light Sweet Crude – up 0.33% to $58.23
09:49 MABUX: Bunker market this morning, Sept 19
09:33 Baltic Dry Index is down to 2,266 points
09:18 ABS grants AIP for two next generation gas carrier designs

2019 September 18

18:26 SGRE confirmed member of the Dow Jones Sustainability Indices in 2019
18:03 MOL repays existing loans through issuance of project bond for FPSO charter project
17:48 Russia’s Rosmorrechflot and Ministry of Industry and Trade develop preferential leasing programme
17:30 Vympel DB develops concept design for Arctic cruise ship
17:22 Metal Shark delivers new foil-assisted catamaran excursion vessel to Pure Florida
17:11 US Coast Guard shifts response efforts in Bahamas
17:03 ECSA considers the European State Aid Guidelines for maritime transport highly successful and key to maintaining a strong European shipping sector
16:39 Vigor hosts keel-laying ceremony for the U.S. landing craft MSV(L)
16:21 Vitol announces long-term LNG time charter contract with H-Line
16:03 Despite some positive indicators, concerns remain for offshore energy underwriters, reports IUMI
15:42 Wärtsilä Denmark joins Digitalisation in Shipping: Europe 2019 as Associate Partner
15:24 USCG ends search for migrants of capsized vessel off Martinica Beach
15:03 GTT receives an order from HHI & SHI for the tank design of six Very Large Ethane Carriers
14:50 FSUE Atomflot develops project on construction of 7MW icebreaking tugboat
14:33 Hapag-Lloyd to increase rates from North East Asia to Australia
14:16 Wärtsilä simulators provide advanced training at newly inaugurated Portuguese facility
14:14 Ørsted contracts Van Oord for cable installation at Greater Changhua offshore wind farms
14:12 GTT obtains Approval in Principle for Arc7 ice class ships from Russian Maritime Register of Shipping
14:03 ABS and Samsung Heavy Industries sign digital technology