Going straight into the past

Russian maritime ports for the first half of 2010 showed good growth dynamics and some figures are approaching pre-crisis levels. Excellent growth rates demonstrate volumes of containers transshipment. Russian terminals are still ahead due to raw goods.

Hazardous growth

The total turnover of Russian seaports, according to the Association of Sea Commercial Ports, in the first half of 2010 increased by 9.7% compared to the same period last year and made up 258.370.000 tons. Thus the highest growth is shown in the transshipment of containers (36.2%), as well as mineral fertilizers (36.4%) and carbon (9.8%), which, after oil and petroleum products, is the most popular cargo handled at the Russian marine terminals.

Despite these positive dynamics of turnover, it is too early for Russian port authorities to forget their work - the slow recovery of the world economy and especially the economies of developing countries that are major consumers of raw materials, creates additional risks. And if this process leads to stagnation, rapid growth in turnover of Russian ports can also slow down.

For example, there is now a slowdown in China. According to Evgeni Kolesov, CEO of Optim Consult it has a "direct impact" on Russian exports. "In case economy in China slows down, the rates of the productive sector of the country could decline. That means China will need coal, steel, gas, oil, etc. from other countries. And yet we must not forget that this is a bilateral process, which inevitably will affect exporters themselves. For example, the Australian Government estimates that due to the slowdown in the Chinese economy 11% of Australians could become rebundant. You can imagine how it affect our compatriots, who have long been working with Chinese companies ", - explained the expert.

There are other macroeconomic risks. For example, a number of new port projects in Russia depend from the export of liquefied natural gas (Teriberka, Sakhalin, Yamal). At the same time in the world, especially in the U.S., shale gas, which can substantially reduce dependence on gas imports, becomes more popular. Experts predict that the proportion of shale natural gas in North America is about to grow, it will also grow in Europe, although not at such a pace. However, recently the U.S. and Poland have agreed on exploration of shale gas at the territory of the European country, and in case of its large resources, Europe will depend much less on Russian natural gas. "Extraction of shale gas in Europe can change its energy paradigm", - said on this occasion, Radoslaw Sikorski, Foreign Minister of Poland.

As for oil, a slowing global economy could also lead to a reduction of its consumption.

Another direction of development of port infrastructure - the Caspian. Thus, according to Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister of Russia, Makhachkala port should become one of the leading Russian ports.Russian ports of the Caspian Sea - Astrakhan, Olya and Makhachkala, are focused on Iran's direction and work with metals. Nevertheless, in this region there is a serious political risk of war between USA and Iran, where uranium content has reached a critical level. At the same time, representatives of Russian authorities claim that international sanctions against Iran mean little for them. In particular, a few days ago Russia and Iran signed cooperation agreement in oil and gas sphere. As Alexander Ignatyuk, analyst of Energocapital reported to PortNews IAA, development of the Caspian ports of Russia is of no interest in economic sense, Iran's export potential is not so large, and Russain metal can not compete with production of Arab Emirates. Probably political connotations associated with foreign and domestic policies of Russia lies beneath.

 Politics v. Economy

In addition to external risks, there are internal ones. One is the risk of negative consequences of the creation of the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, which, according to some experts, could lead to a redistribution of freight flows to bypass Russia. The situation is also affected by the implementation of the concept of transfer of customs posts to the state border, which actually leads to a redistribution of the market of customs services.

Another internal factor that reduces the competitiveness of Russian ports – is idling of ships waiting for inspection. To solve this problem the Transport Ministry has drafted amendments to the Model Scheme of passes of goods and people through sea checkpoints, providing for inspection does not require stopping of the loading and unloading activities.

You can also mention the risks associated with international agreements binding to low down levels of sulfur  content in ship fuel, which could reduce the competitiveness of maritime transport in the Baltic Sea as a specially protected environmental zone.

If we talk about marine motor terminals, then their work depends primarily on the state of the automotive market, which has been greatly affected by the crisis. The market is gradually restored. So, according to Maxim Shirokov, the general director of Ust-Luga Company JSC, which owns the multi-transshipment complex Ug-2 in the Ust-Luga (new cars are also handled here), at today's automotive market is stable positive dynamics. The volume of transshipment of new cars through Ug-2 continues to grow."  In 2010, according to the plans terminal is about to handle 60 thousand cars, so the volume of transshipment will increase 3.4 times compared with last year's figure.

Barrage customs duties on import of foreign cars have led to significant price increases and new problems arising in the Russian economy will make the consumers to refuse from expensive and not very necessary for everyday goods, among which are passenger cars. At the same time, the government in the foreseeable future is not going to lower taxes, counting on the development of the domestic automobile industry.

Vitaly Chernov