Optimistic slowdown

In 2013, Russian ports saw a slowdown in the growth rate of throughput. Cargo turnover was 3.9 pct up against 5.6-pct increase in 2012, which is “blamed” mainly on ferrous metal, grain and timber. However, metal and grain are likely to demonstrate more positive dynamics in 2014.

Transshipment of ferrous metal dropped to 22 mln t (-14%), grain – to 18.3 mln t (-23,4%), timber – to 4.4 mln t (-25.9%).

Ferrous metal

As for ferrous metal, their transshipment in 2012 increased by 4.8%, year-on-year, to 25.6 mln t. The decline of the past year should be attributed to the decrease in demand from major importing countries. According to customs statistics on foreign trade turnover, Russia’s exports of ferrous metal declined by 6.2% in January-November 2013, while exports to non-CIS countries dropped by almost 10%. Meanwhile, some two thirds of all ferrous metal is exported via ports.

In this situation, metal producers shifted to the domestic market characterized by higher prices as compared with the global market. However, this year is likely to sea the growth of ferrous metal export driven by continuing devaluation of ruble and recovery of the EU economy.

Grain

In 2012, the ports transshipped 24 mln t of grain (+23.3%). 23.4-pct decline in 2013 is also explained by export decline. According to the customs statistics, January-November exports of wheat and meslin dropped by 20% to 15.29 mln t. It should be mainly attributed to export decline in the agricultural year of 2012-13 (down 1.5 times to 14 mln t).

Besides, major consumer of Russian grain – Egypt – cut purchases in 2013 and Egypt is getting to be inferior to Turkey as Russia’s primary partner in sales of grain. Moreover, competition with Ukraine and Kazakhstan with their fair yield was also a negative factor for Russia.

As for 2014, the dynamics seems to be positive so far – customs statistics says the beginning of the new agricultural year (from July 1, 2013 till November 2013 saw an increase of grain exports – by 13.3%.

Timber

In 2012, timber exports vial Russian ports fell by 3.9% to 5.9 mln t. In 2013, exports plunged to 4.4 mln t (-25.9%) and it is not because of any export decline. On the contrary, customs statistics says it increased in 2013. Most probably it is because of timber shifting to railway due to its specific logistics and decline of the demand in the Middle East and North Africa as timber is exported there via ports. In January-November 2013, Trans-Baikal Railway carried 5.7 mln t of timber to China. Besides, timber is a low-cost cargo for ports and there is a trend to use former timber berths for transshipment of other, more cost efficient cargoes while timber is transported in containers. In 2013, containerization of timber cargo boosted by 60% against the previous year.

So we don’t expect any growth of timber transshipment via sea ports.

A spoon of optimism

Nevertheless, analysts forecast more positive dynamics of ferrous metal exports in 2014 as well as good grain exports during the agricultural year of 2013-14. Therefore, these types of cargo are likely to improve their results this year.

Vitaly Chernov