Impact of events in Crimea on container flows in Ukraine

Ukraine is likely to lose 2.76% of import and 1.33% of export cargo flows in 2014, or 2.18% of total loaded container flow.

Without any political judgment of the events in Crimea in early 2014, Informall BG has analyzed container flows to/from Crimea handled by Ukrainian terminals. We have tried to estimate this cargo flow economically and to evaluate its impact on the entire container flow of Ukraine.

In 2013, monthly cargo deliveries to Crimea via Ukrainian ports ranged between 388 and 2,410 TEUs.

In general, we see a wave-like movement of import container flows which can be explained by seasonal fluctuation. March upsurge should be attributed to preparation for a tourism season in Crimea which his confirmed by the structure of imported goods: food products accounted for almost 40% of import, equipment (including shop and refrigerating equipment) - 24%.  As for export cargo flows generated in Crimea, it was quite stable: from 201 to 507 TEUs. Almost 77% of export construction flow was formed by titanium dioxide (Crimea Titan PJSC) and 9% - soda salt (shipments of КCrimean Soda Plant).

Total volume of Crimean import and export was 10,405 TEUs and 3,430 TEUs respectively. Total volume of Ukraine’s loaded import in 2013 was 377,230 TEUs, export – 257,061 TEUs. In 2014, Ukraine may lose 2.76% of import and 1.33% of export cargo flow, or 2.18% of total loaded container flow.

As for the lost income of container terminals in Ukraine, it can make $1.7 mln  (excluding VAT) considering the rates of handling operations and the volumes mentioned above.

The materials have been provided to IAA PortNews by Informall BG.