10-percent growth

In the four-month period of 2017, throughput of Russian seaports grew by more than 10%, which exceeds the average growth of recent years. Key drivers of that growth are coal, grain and crude oil from the Novoportovskoye field, despite the OPEC oil production cut agreement.

Dry cargo

In the dry cargo segment, the highest growth was demonstrated by coal – 47.3 mln t (+18.8%), grain – 11.5 mln t (+18.9%) and containerized cargo.

As for coal, its exports increased amid the growth of prices in the global market driven particularly by natural disaster in Australia. However, the prices are going down now and the average annual growth of coal turnover is likely to be lower than in 4M’17.

Last year, Russia enjoyed the record-breaking grain harvest – more than 119 mln t. The Ministry of Agriculture forecasts the exports during the season of 2016/17 to reach 37 mln t (+7%, year-on-year). As RF Minister of Agriculture Aleksandr Tkachev said at the governmental meeting in March 2017, this year can see regular exports of grain unlike previous seasons when the bulk of grain was exported in autumn and exports almost stopped in spring.

In June, exports can even increase with the revival of grain exports to Turkey. Two-fold increase of exports are expected in June.

Container throughput in tonnes climbed by 11.9%, year-on-year, due to a stronger rouble and deferred demand following the fall of the previous years.

New oil from New Port

Despite the OPEC oil production cut agreement, oil production in Russia in January-April 2017 climbed by  0.8% to 181.16 mln t, says the Ministry of Energy, with crude exports growing by 0.9% to 85.9 mln t. That should be attributed to shipments from the Novoportovskoye (New Port) field – some 5 mln t in the four-month period. Crude oil is transported by seaborne transport with transshipment in Murmansk, hence the double figures in public statistics. Actual growth of crude oil transshipment via the ports of Russia is about 6.7% to 79.5 mln t.

Another specific feature of statistics is about the OPEC oil production cut agreement according to which the output should be reduced versus October 2016 (not the same period of the previous year). As for the future dynamics, it will depend to a great extent on further participation in negotiations on reduction of oil output.

Vitaly Chernov