Bunker prices to show mixed movements next week, expert says
Developments in Syria and Libya were the main factors which put downward pressure on fuel prices this week. Negotiations between Russia and the U.S. on Syria's chemical weapons have removed the immediate threat of the U.S. military strike although the U.N. inspection team has found "clear and convincing evidence" that the nerve agent sarin was used near Damascus on Aug. 21 with no identification which of the sides used it. Meanwhile the U.S. isn't softening its opposition to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad by making a diplomatic deal. As per Secretary of State John Kerry, there's no conflict between sending international chemical-weapons experts to work with Assad's regime and the "strategic goal" of ending his rule. So the geopolitical risk in prices linked to Syria will continue to exist in medium-term perspective, Marine Bunker Exchange said in its weekly bunker review.
U.S. Fed decision looks to be the main macroeconomic factor for fuel’s move. Fuel traders were prepared for an expected reduction in the U.S. Federal Reserve's massive monetary stimulus and so it pushed down fuel prices earlier this week. However Fed policy makers decided to await more evidence of economic progress, including holding its interest-rate target at almost zero until the unemployment rate falls below 6.5 percent. As a result U.S. Fed’s unexpected decision weakened the dollar and stoked demand for risky assets including fuel.
Low stockpiles are also supporting prices. U.S. crude inventories slid 4.37 million barrels (against forecast of 1.2-million barrel drop) to 355.6 million last week - their lowest since March 2012. Cushing supplies slipped 861,000 barrels to 33.3 million.
Eurozone economy is technically out of recession now. But growth momentum is expected to remain slow as the structural weakness in the region is unlikely to be resolved in the near term. The main element for further development could be the election results in Germany taking place on Sunday, Sep. 22.
Currently protests and strikes across Libia have reduced daily oil production to one-tenth its capacity, severely pressuring the economy, and affecting global oil supplies. However at present the situation has slightly changed: Libya moves to restore its oil output taking some of the pressure off. Force majeure has been lifted in the Zawiya and Mellitah oil ports because of improving conditions. With these measures Libia's production output may reach 700,000 barrels a day this week from as little as 200,000 barrels.
Pressuring prices, Iranian President Hassan Rohani vowed his government would never develop nuclear weapons and offered to negotiate a deal on its suspected nuclear weapons program as diplomats from the International Atomic Energy Agency are meeting this week in Vienna. Iran also expresses its readiness to decommission Fordo uranium-enrichment facility in exchange for an easing of international sanctions.
At the same time, Iraq's oil exports from its southern ports have slowed so far in September and may fall further until mid-October due to maintenance, tightening supply from OPEC's second-largest producer.
Taking all the above factors into consideration we suppose fuel bunker prices will continue changing irregular next week.
|
Product |
380 cSt HSFO |
380 cSt LSFO |
|
|
|
|
|
Rotterdam 2013-09-19 |
601 |
627 |
|
Rotterdam 2012-09-19 |
637 |
696 |
|
|
|
|
|
Gibraltar 2013-09-19 |
623 |
650 |
|
Gibraltar 2012-09-19 |
662 |
722 |
|
|
|
|
|
St Petersburg 2013-09-19 |
548 |
584 |
|
St Petersburg 2012-09-19 |
455 |
530 |
|
|
|
|
|
Panama Canal 2013-09-19 |
619 |
688 |
|
Panama Canal 2012-09-19 |
655 |
855 |
|
|
|
|
|
Busan 2013-09-19 |
628 |
722 |
|
Busan 2012-09-19 |
695 |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
Fujairah 2013-09-19 |
610 |
730 |
|
Fujairah 2012-09-19 |
670 |
- |
All prices stated in USD / Mton
All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)
|
Product |
Close Sep. 18 |
|
Light Crude Oil (WTI) |
$108,07 |
|
Brent Crude Oil |
$110,60 |