MABUX: Mixed prices trend likely to prevail in bunker market next week
The Bunker Review is contributed to IAA PortNews by Marine Bunker Exchange
Oil Future prices rose on massive inventory draws on Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate advanced to match a two week high after the US reported a larger than forecast drop in inventories. Crude inventories shrank as imports decreased 13 percent last week, the most since September 2012, according to the Energy Information Administration. Notable is that it was five times a 1.3 million drop forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.
In Libya, operations have returned to normal at least at the Sharara field as protesters are satisfied with the government’s response to their demands, said Mustafa Lamin, a spokesman for the group. The country’s production has now reached 570.000 barrels a day figures published on Wednesday. Libya holds Africa’s biggest crude reserves.
Europe is days from suspending a ban on reinsurance for tankers hauling Iranian oil, a measure that helped cut crude exports from the country by more than 50 percent, the International Group of P&I Clubs said. The relaxation will take effect on January 20 and last for at least six months. Note that the sanctions on oil are not lifted only sanctions around transportation and insurance will be suspended. The market will probably see extended export of Iranian oil to countries such as India, China, South Africa, South Korea and Japan. But they will all stick to the US led quotas on Iranian oil imports.
Brent crude oil, which is today the leading benchmark for estimation of physical prices, noted following readings for 2013. – Highest reading $119,1 per barrel February 8 and the lowest was $96,7 per barrel April 18. - For 2012 the highest reading was $128,4 per barrel March 1 and lowest $88,5 June 22. – During the financial crises 2008 the lowest number was $34,3 per barrel December 23 and the highest price ever was also 2008 $147,5 per barrel July 11.
For the year 2014 our forecast is that prices will in general decrease. Brent will trade between $95 – 115 per barrel and the WTI between $85 – 95 a barrel. Due to over capacity of crude oil the market will from time to time have too much products to absorb.
Even though the World Economy is expected to increase by 3,2 percent 2014.
We expect that market will see sideways trend next week.
|
Product |
380 cSt HSFO |
380 cSt LSFO |
|
|
|
|
|
Rotterdam 2014-01-16 |
563 |
593 |
|
Rotterdam 2013-01-16 |
601 |
633 |
|
|
|
|
|
Gibraltar 2014-01-16 |
598 |
640 |
|
Gibraltar 2013-01-16 |
633 |
687 |
|
|
|
|
|
St Petersburg 2014-01-16 |
400 |
460 |
|
St Petersburg 2013-01-16 |
500 |
560 |
|
|
|
|
|
Panama Canal 2014-01-16 |
586 |
665 |
|
Panama Canal 2013-01-16 |
625 |
733 |
|
|
|
|
|
Busan 2014-01-16 |
646 |
706 |
|
Busan 2013-01-16 |
643 |
826 |
|
|
|
|
|
Fujairah 2014-01-16 |
620 |
- |
|
Fujairah 2013-01-16 |
613 |
725 |
All prices stated in USD / Mton
All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)
|
Product |
Close Jan. 15 |
|
Light Crude Oil (WTI) |
$94,17 |
|
Brent Crude Oil |
$107,13 |