Bulk shipping demand to rise, supply gains to slow: Nomura
Demand to haul commodities such as coal and iron ore at sea will strengthen and fleet growth slow, according to Nomura Holdings Inc.
The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of commodity-shipping costs, has fallen 18 per cent in August on a lack of cargo and a US$10,077-a-day drop in rates to hire co-called capesize ships. The decline comes after the index more than trebled this year.
Capesize vessels typically carry iron ore, the biggest single dry-bulk commodity hauled at sea.
'We remain positive on bulk shipping as we forecast stronger bulk demand and lower supply growth due to order delays, cancellations and scrapping,' Jim Wong, a Hong Kong- based analyst with Nomura, wrote in a note dated yesterday.
He cited iron-ore demand, China becoming a net coal importer this year, delays to new-ship deliveries and demolition of old vessels.
Dry-bulk shipping rates rose to a record in 2009 before collapsing at the end of the year, making previously-ordered ships surplus to requirements. The fleet will grow 14 per cent this year and 22 per cent in 2010, according to estimates from Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd in London. The forecast doesn't include cancellations, delays and scrapping.
The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of commodity-shipping costs, has fallen 18 per cent in August on a lack of cargo and a US$10,077-a-day drop in rates to hire co-called capesize ships. The decline comes after the index more than trebled this year.
Capesize vessels typically carry iron ore, the biggest single dry-bulk commodity hauled at sea.
'We remain positive on bulk shipping as we forecast stronger bulk demand and lower supply growth due to order delays, cancellations and scrapping,' Jim Wong, a Hong Kong- based analyst with Nomura, wrote in a note dated yesterday.
He cited iron-ore demand, China becoming a net coal importer this year, delays to new-ship deliveries and demolition of old vessels.
Dry-bulk shipping rates rose to a record in 2009 before collapsing at the end of the year, making previously-ordered ships surplus to requirements. The fleet will grow 14 per cent this year and 22 per cent in 2010, according to estimates from Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd in London. The forecast doesn't include cancellations, delays and scrapping.