• 2017 March 2 16:43

    MABUX: Bunker market in steady mode

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World fuel indexes have demonstrated insignificant irregular changes with no firm trend during the week. Recent rising inventories in the U.S. and the talk that OPEC might be prepared to extend the production cuts beyond the initial expiry date at end-June support an assumption that the global inventory drawdown may not come as early as it was expected.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) were steady in the period of Feb.23 – Mar.02:

    380 HSFO - up from 306.86 to 308.57 USD/MT     (+1,71)
    180 HSFO - up from 349.07 to 350.21 USD/MT     (+1,14)
    MGO     - down from 532.64 to 527.86 USD/MT (-4,78)

    The main reason for the potential fuel price rally is still the production cuts by the OPEC members and Russia to balance the oversupplied fuel market. OPEC has achieved 86 percent compliance rate on the proposed cuts in January 2017. To support this trend, Saudi Arabia has offered to reduce oil production even more if rival Iran caps its own output this year. The non-OPEC members who had supported the cuts have achieved 60 percent compliance at the moment.

    Russia’s oil production in February is expected to be lower than the January output, with cutting more than the 117,000 bpd cut it made last month. Russia also reiterated that it would be sticking to the agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC producers and it would try to speed up the gradual cutting of the 300,000 bpd in order to rebalance the market. At present Russia is playing a major role in the 558,000 bpd total non-OPEC reduction.

    However, the global glut seems to be even deeper than it was expected. Last week OPEC suggested that the six-month production cut may need to be extended beyond the June 30 dead-line. An extension of the cuts would certainly help shrink the glut, but the longer the deal wears on, the more likely will be the risk for fabricated statistics. On top of that, some countries like Libya, Nigeria and Iraq are undermining the effectiveness of the deal by building production.

    Iraqi crude shipments rose 3 percent in the first half of February even after OPEC’s second-biggest producer agreed to participate in global output cuts. Exports increased to 3.93 million barrels a day in the first 15 days of the month, 122,000 barrels a day more than the average for all of January. Shipments from the southern Iraqi port of Basra grew by 10 percent, while sales by the Kurdish Regional Government in the north of the country were up 13 percent. Meantime, according to OPEC output cut agreement, Iraq pledged to decrease production by 210,000 barrels a day from the 3.91 million it pumped in October.

    Besides, even after achieving targeted 1.8 million barrels a day of production cut, the huge stockpiles have not reduced. On the contrary, U.S. crude stocks have risen 39 million barrels this year, to 518 million, since OPEC started cutting production in January. U.S. crude imports fell 14 percent to an average 7.29 million barrels a day for the week ended Feb. 17. Meantime, oil exports surged to a record. The rig count continues to go up too: by five to 602 last week, the highest number since October 2015. As a result domestic production rose to 9 million barrels a day last week.

    On the other hand, Goldman Sachs predicted that although crude oil inventories in the U.S. are expected to rise, the global oil market is showing signs of tightness and will continue to see crude stocks draw down. In addition, it expects the higher base demand growth this year - projected at 1.5 million bpd - to fully offset increased production in the U.S. Despite of that, Goldman left unchanged its Brent and WTI price forecasts for this year, seeing the price of Brent rising to US$59.00 and WTI - to US$57.50 per barrel in the second quarter, and then falling to US$57 and US$55 per barrel for the remainder of the year.

    At the same time, recent sales of oil held in tankers anchored off Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia could be interpreted as one of the signs that the production cut led by OPEC is starting to have the desired effect of drawing down bloated inventories.  6.8 million barrels of crude has been taken out of tanker storage from Linggi, off Malaysia's west coast and an additional 4.1 million barrels and another 1.2 million barrels have been taken out of storage on tankers in Singaporean and Indonesian waters. Although in the short-term the flood of crude from floating storage will add to supplies coming into Asia, in the longer-term, however, clearing oil out of floating inventories like tankers is part of OPEC's goal to rebalance markets. Besides, market has been benefiting from contango where prices for later delivery are higher than those for immediate dispatch.

    As a resume, the OPEC deal has succeeded in already taking roughly 1 million barrels per day off of the market, but the supply/demand balance is still not as tight as OPEC members had hoped it would be at this point. The market is rather steady at the moment and we do not expect any firm trends next week. Bunker prices may continue changing irregular.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    * MGO LS
    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)

    Bunker market is in a steady mode



2020 August 7

18:32 Maersk revamps Europe to Middle East & Indian Subcontinent network
18:00 Rosmorport's to beef up its icebreaking fleet to 38 units in 2020
17:00 World’s first zero-emissions top handlers performing well at Port of Los Angeles
16:01 Port of HaminaKotka seven-month volume fell 16.7%
15:09 Launching of Russia’s first LNG-powered passenger ship Chaika held at Zelenodolsk Shipyard
14:21 North Carolina Ports records year-over-year increases in Fiscal Year 2020
14:09 Cargo traffic at Port Kavkaz in January-July rose 9%
13:21 ABP invests in Port of Lowestoft to support UK Southern North Sea energy sector
13:19 Krasnoye Sormovo Shipyard hosts launching ceremony for the RSD59 series MS Pola Marina
12:49 Rosmorport plans expansion of its fleet by 24 newbuilds
12:08 Jan De Nul signs contract with Dogger Bank Wind Farm
11:22 The second tanker manufactured in Azerbaijan launched for the next stage of construction
10:37 MSC’s Golden Horn service links China, Korea & Russia’s east coast
09:59 Ecochlor receives IMO BWMS Code Type Approval
09:51 MABUX: Bunker market this morning, Aug 07
09:16 Baltic Dry Index as of Aug 6
09:12 Crude futures prices turn down again

2020 August 6

19:00 FSL Trust agrees to sell three containerships
18:27 Sumitomo Heavy Industries has been granted an “Approval in Principle” for a medium-size high-pressure LNG dual-fueled tanker
18:21 Port of Rostov-on-Don seven-month volume rises 4% to 12.7 million tonnes
18:07 ICTSI 1H2020 net income down 12% to US$113.4mln
17:26 Royal IHC awarded major contract for supply of FPSO equipment for Yinson
17:25 Vodohod’s newbuild Mustai Karim arrives at Saint Petersburg
16:36 Nevsky Shipyard launches the Pavel Leonov, last ship of PV22 series duo
16:15 North Sea Port, Flemish Waterways plc, Port of Antwerp, Port of Oostende, Port of Zeebrugge, the Agency for Maritime and Coastal Services, and the Joint Nautical Management to introduce SWINg in 2021
15:43 Zelenodolsk Shipyard to host tomorrow launching and keel-laying ceremonies
15:41 Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships Port Network was established in Singapore
14:27 MABUX Bunker Weekly Review
13:54 Tolyattii bound heavylift project cargo successfully handled at Port Bronka
13:27 Alaska Marine Lines rail barges upgrade ballast systems
12:46 Davie confirms polar leadership with icebreaker launch
12:35 Transit container transport by RZD network soars 30% in Jan-Jul
11:40 CMA CGM to launch its ever-faster service connecting Spain with Algeria
11:35 Carnival Cruise Line joins industrywide pause in U.S. through October 31
10:18 Shell signs charter contracts for six newbuild LNG carriers
10:15 Fourth IMO Greenhouse Gas Study: Shipping emissions are projected to increase by up to 50% until 2050, relative to 2018
09:58 The Flemish government, Port of Antwerp and SeReAnt together improve the water quality at the Port of Antwerp
09:26 Baltic Dry Index as of Aug 5
09:21 Crude futures prices resume climb
09:10 MABUX: Bunker market this morning, Aug 06
08:11 NYK starts operation of its first finished-car logistics terminal in Japan

2020 August 5

18:57 Valenciaport triples air quality control cabins
18:16 U.S. Coast Guard suspends search for missing spearfisher off Maui
18:04 Port of Helsinki turnover decreased by 26.7% to EUR 33.4 million in January–June 2020
17:35 A delegation of the Port of Gdansk visits Klaipeda
17:06 Voluntary ship slowdown through Swiftsure Bank begins August 1
16:49 Mississippi River will get deeper
16:39 MOL introduces FOCUS Project Part Ⅲ: Virtual Ship Visit Application 'Fleet Tour'
16:29 Admiralty Shipyards starts building fourth CT-192 series trawler the Kapitan Martynov
15:27 Solstad secures contract from BP for three vessels in Australia
14:38 ABS to class first Taiwan-built offshore installation vessel
13:22 Hurtigruten temporarily suspends all expedition cruises
13:18 Krasnoye Sormovo to launch the MS Pola Marina cargo ship on August 7
13:12 The Vostochnaya Stevedoring Company completes the upgrade of more than 18,000m2 of storage yard
13:08 Concept of a modular composite fishing boat gets the thumbs up from MARINET
12:39 Scorpio Bulkers to build Wind Turbine Installation Vessel (WTIV) at DEME
12:01 Fincantieri and Saipem sign deep-seabed mining agreement
11:58 MARINET expects draft amendments on autonomous shipping to Russia’s MSC to be submitted by the end of the month
11:13 Future 12th expeditionary fast transport (EPF 12) for US Navy successfully completes acceptance trials
11:06 SEA-KIT bags two USV orders from Fugro