• 2020 September 22 17:36

    DNV GL – Maritime releases the fourth edition of its Maritime Forecast to 2050

    DNV GL – Maritime has released the fourth edition of its Maritime Forecast to 2050. The purpose of Maritime Forecast to 2050 is to enhance the ability of shipping stakeholders, especially shipowners, to navigate the technological, regulatory and market uncertainties in the industry, and set shipping on a pathway to decarbonization. It is based on a library of 30 scenarios which project future fleet composition, energy use, fuel mix, and CO2 emissions to 2050. Sixteen different fuel types and 10 fuel technology systems are modelled in the report.

    “The grand challenge of our time is finding a pathway towards decarbonization,” said Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CEO of DNV GL – Maritime. “Reducing GHG emissions is rapidly becoming the defining decision-making factor for the future of the shipping industry. The pressure to act decisively is mounting. Perfect is the enemy of good, and so we mustn’t wait for an ideal solution to arrive and risk making no progress at all. Using a wide range of scenarios involving different fuel types and technologies, and varying degrees of regulatory pressure, our new report helps to map a way forward, offering shipowners clear insights on how to meet the challenges and opportunities ahead.”

    The Maritime Forecast identifies the choice of fuel as the essential factor in decarbonizing shipping. The industry is at the beginning of a transition phase, with many potential options emerging alongside conventional fuels. This increasingly diverse fuel environment means that engine and fuel choice now represent potential risks that could lead to a stranded asset. Factoring in the impacts of availability, prices and policy, on different fuels, makes the choice even more complex.

    To capture this complexity and help make this picture clearer the Maritime Forecast offers a wide range of scenarios, outlining the potential risks of a particular fuel choice. To make the ramifications concrete, alongside the pathways, the Maritime Forecast includes detailed analysis of a Panamax bulk carrier newbuilding. By stress testing technology decisions under the various pathways and scenarios, the Forecast presents potential performance and the carbon robustness of the various design choices.

    The 30 scenarios result in widely different outcomes for the fuel mix in the fleet. In the scenarios with no decarbonization ambitions, very low sulphur fuel oil, marine gas oil and LNG dominate. While under the decarbonization pathways, in 2050 a variety of carbon-neutral fuels holds between 60% and 100% market share.

    Under the decarbonization scenarios it is hard to identify clear winners among the many different fuel options. Fossil LNG gains a significant share until regulations tighten in 2030 or 2040. Bio-MGO, e-MGO, bio-LNG and e-LNG emerge as drop-in fuels for existing ships. By 2050, E-ammonia, blue ammonia and bio-methanol frequently end up with a strong share of the market and are the most promising carbon-neutral fuels in the long run.

    A surprising result from the model is the relative limited uptake of hydrogen as a ship fuel, as a result of both the estimated price of the fuel and the investment costs for the engine and fuel systems. Hydrogen, however, plays an integral role as a building block in the production of several carbon-neutral fuels such as e-ammonia, blue ammonia and e-methanol, all of which gain significant uptake under the decarbonization pathways. It may also find niche applications in some vessel types, such as ferries and cruise vessels, as well as in specific regions where investments have been made into local production and distribution.

    The Maritime Forecast to 2050 is part of a suite of Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) reports produced by DNV GL. The ETO has designed, expanded and refined a model of the world’s energy system encompassing demand and supply of energy globally, and the use and exchange of energy between and within ten world regions.

    About DNV GL – Maritime

    DNV GL is the world’s leading classification society and a recognized advisor for the maritime industry.




2020 October 27

15:33 New tanks for storage and processing of polluted water have been put into operation in the port of Riga
15:04 Norway's biggest ferry company orders two new ferries from Havyard LAB
14:10 Port of Gothenburg posts results for January-September 2020
14:06 Krasniye Barrikady launched non-self-propelled cargo pontoon of Project GPRN
13:21 Wärtsilä cargo handling system design selected for new Very Large Ethane Carrier vessels
12:52 Bunker prices are stable in the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
12:27 BlueWater Reporting issues Q3 2020 World Liner Supply Report
12:09 HEINEKEN pioneers with zero-emission shipping
11:58 COVAXX and Maersk enter partnership to supply COVID-19 vaccines globally
11:03 Sea Port of Saint-Petersburg continues automation of railcars weighing
10:38 RF Government to look into development of national project focused on IWW
10:09 CMA CGM announces PSS for cargo from India North West ports to Europe
09:45 MABUX: Bunker Market this morning, Oct 27
09:40 Strategy for Developing the Russian Arctic Zone and Ensuring National Security until 2035 approved
09:22 Oil prices are recovering
09:07 Baltic Dry Index as of October 27

2020 October 26

18:03 Shipping emissions talks stall in London
18:03 Port of Klaipeda to get funds for sustainable development and digitization of the port’ management
17:42 34.6 million tonnes loaded in the Port of Klaipeda in 9 months of this year
16:58 Innovative solutions of MAPEI are increasingly widespread in shipbuilding
16:34 Kalmar continues long-term collaboration with Patrick Terminals with new order for AutoStrads
16:10 Average spot market price for Russian M100 product rose to RUB 12,430 pmt
15:46 Royal IHC and Suez Canal Authority successfully launch CSD HUSSEIN TANTAWY
15:34 EPS secures 15-year TC from STL for four dual fuel VLECs
14:52 RF Prime Minister approves list of checkpoints that can be crossed by foreigners with e-visas
14:31 Ocean Network Express to launch new intra Asia service
14:03 Port of Helsinki passenger traffic down 53.9% to 4.1 million in Jan-Sept 2020
13:06 Passenger turnover in Russian ports plunged by 73.9% in 9M’2020
12:59 ICS welcomes legally binding agreement to significantly improve the carbon efficiency of shipping
12:37 Delo Group and Russian Railways signed Agreement on cooperation in organization of rail container transportation
11:59 Stena Bulk branded class for tanker personnel opened at Admiral Makarov SUMIS
11:58 The Ocean Cleanup introduces first product made with ocean plastic pollution
11:30 NIBULON ranks first among Ukrainian shipyards
10:31 EMA and Keppel jointly awarded a research grant to pilot Singapore’s first floating Energy Storage System
10:15 Admiralteiskie Verfi shipyard delivered diesel-electric submarine Volkhov to RF Navy
09:50 MABUX: Bunker Market this morning, Oct 26
09:26 Oil market starts week with decreasing prices
09:09 Baltic Dry Index as of October 23

2020 October 25

15:27 USCG: Oil spill cleanup of Delaware Bay coastline continues
14:53 Richmond Council to host first public meeting with Hammersmith Bridge Taskforce
14:38 Deep water berth extension at Port of Halifax fully operational
13:27 Gothenburg Port Authority's Elvir Dzanic named as a member of Electrification Commission
12:43 Maritime NZ welcomes report to MPI
12:18 Oil spill response equipment and vessel rates in Singapore
11:04 GPA holds first virtual State of the Port

2020 October 24

15:47 Ocean transport of the first lot of railway coach to Myanmar completed
14:51 OOCL announces services changes and enhancements on Asia-Europe trade
13:28 Port Authority launches new campaign against litter
12:41 Hapag-Lloyd announces Ocean Tariff rates on East Asia - NEC and Mediterranean trade
11:06 CSD Hussein Tantawy successfully launched at IHC's shipyard in The Netherlands

2020 October 23

18:09 Baltic Data Flows: New HELCOM project seeks to harmonize and harvest environmental data at a pan-Baltic level
17:47 ICS welcomes legally binding agreement to significantly improve carbon efficiency of shipping
17:10 Anti-submarine ship Vice-Admiral Kulakov completes its business call to Greece
16:32 Bollinger Shipyards delivers 41ST fast response cutter to the U.S. Coast Guard
16:05 APM Terminals Poti signs a contract with Poti New Terminals Corporation for the development of dry bulk facility in the Poti Sea Port
15:31 HySHIP project clinches EUR 8M funding award
15:13 Krasnoye Sormovo shipyard launches dry cargo carrier Alfa Mercury
14:50 Self-propelled crane built for RF Navy’s Pacific Fleet arrived in Vladivostok having passed the Northern Sea Route
14:25 Equinor changes chief financial officer
14:06 Membrane technologies of GTT is an optimal solution for gas carriers, LNG bunkering and storage