• 2020 September 22 17:36

    DNV GL – Maritime releases the fourth edition of its Maritime Forecast to 2050

    DNV GL – Maritime has released the fourth edition of its Maritime Forecast to 2050. The purpose of Maritime Forecast to 2050 is to enhance the ability of shipping stakeholders, especially shipowners, to navigate the technological, regulatory and market uncertainties in the industry, and set shipping on a pathway to decarbonization. It is based on a library of 30 scenarios which project future fleet composition, energy use, fuel mix, and CO2 emissions to 2050. Sixteen different fuel types and 10 fuel technology systems are modelled in the report.

    “The grand challenge of our time is finding a pathway towards decarbonization,” said Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CEO of DNV GL – Maritime. “Reducing GHG emissions is rapidly becoming the defining decision-making factor for the future of the shipping industry. The pressure to act decisively is mounting. Perfect is the enemy of good, and so we mustn’t wait for an ideal solution to arrive and risk making no progress at all. Using a wide range of scenarios involving different fuel types and technologies, and varying degrees of regulatory pressure, our new report helps to map a way forward, offering shipowners clear insights on how to meet the challenges and opportunities ahead.”

    The Maritime Forecast identifies the choice of fuel as the essential factor in decarbonizing shipping. The industry is at the beginning of a transition phase, with many potential options emerging alongside conventional fuels. This increasingly diverse fuel environment means that engine and fuel choice now represent potential risks that could lead to a stranded asset. Factoring in the impacts of availability, prices and policy, on different fuels, makes the choice even more complex.

    To capture this complexity and help make this picture clearer the Maritime Forecast offers a wide range of scenarios, outlining the potential risks of a particular fuel choice. To make the ramifications concrete, alongside the pathways, the Maritime Forecast includes detailed analysis of a Panamax bulk carrier newbuilding. By stress testing technology decisions under the various pathways and scenarios, the Forecast presents potential performance and the carbon robustness of the various design choices.

    The 30 scenarios result in widely different outcomes for the fuel mix in the fleet. In the scenarios with no decarbonization ambitions, very low sulphur fuel oil, marine gas oil and LNG dominate. While under the decarbonization pathways, in 2050 a variety of carbon-neutral fuels holds between 60% and 100% market share.

    Under the decarbonization scenarios it is hard to identify clear winners among the many different fuel options. Fossil LNG gains a significant share until regulations tighten in 2030 or 2040. Bio-MGO, e-MGO, bio-LNG and e-LNG emerge as drop-in fuels for existing ships. By 2050, E-ammonia, blue ammonia and bio-methanol frequently end up with a strong share of the market and are the most promising carbon-neutral fuels in the long run.

    A surprising result from the model is the relative limited uptake of hydrogen as a ship fuel, as a result of both the estimated price of the fuel and the investment costs for the engine and fuel systems. Hydrogen, however, plays an integral role as a building block in the production of several carbon-neutral fuels such as e-ammonia, blue ammonia and e-methanol, all of which gain significant uptake under the decarbonization pathways. It may also find niche applications in some vessel types, such as ferries and cruise vessels, as well as in specific regions where investments have been made into local production and distribution.

    The Maritime Forecast to 2050 is part of a suite of Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) reports produced by DNV GL. The ETO has designed, expanded and refined a model of the world’s energy system encompassing demand and supply of energy globally, and the use and exchange of energy between and within ten world regions.

    About DNV GL – Maritime

    DNV GL is the world’s leading classification society and a recognized advisor for the maritime industry.




2021 April 22

14:48 Icebreaker assistance period ends at the port of Ust-Luga
14:31 Plug and Play launches maritime innovation platform in Antwerp
14:13 ABS Consulting and Verifavia Shipping partner to deliver turnkey IHM solution to maritime industry
13:51 Volgotrans successfully completes e-document flow tests
13:35 Icebreaker assistance period ends at the port of Primorsk
13:12 MPA and SMF step up efforts for maritime workforce transformation
12:34 Rosmorport tests e-Navigation system in the seaport of Sabetta
12:30 DNV awards first merchant vessel SILENT-E notation
12:12 Aker Solutions completes first phase of the Hywind Tampen Construction
11:39 Russian Maritime Register of Shipping takes part in NEFTEGAZ 2021
11:17 Wan Hai Lines to launch independent TVT2 service
10:46 Russian Fishery Company starts supplying surimi to the domestic market
10:20 FESCO refinanced its obligations to VTB
09:33 Oil prices decrease as COVID-19 cases grow in India and Japan
09:11 Baltic Dry Index as of April 21
06:57 The first batch of the next generation of electric boats arrives in New York

2021 April 21

18:44 Russian President suggests providing federal infrastructure loans
18:35 MAN Energy Solutions to partner on world’s largest liquid-air energy-storage (LAES) project
18:05 Port of Dampier sets sail with 10-year roadmap
17:35 Port of Amsterdam postpones the implementation date of the Green Award requirement for river cruise ships for a year
17:33 First Candela C-7 hydrofoil delivered to customers on the US East coast
17:15 Maersk launches rail service between Gurugram and APM Terminals Pipavav Port
16:35 Wärtsilä seeks breakthrough in clean propulsion as part of Finnish consortium
16:15 BIMCO asks the IMO to improve the ballast water record book
15:14 Russian container transport giant RUSCON opens its office in the Netherlands
14:41 Shipping bodies call on world leaders to bring forward discussions on global market-based measures
14:18 Volvo Penta is now taking orders on its full Stage V marine engine range
14:13 DEME wins first floating offshore wind EPCI contract for the Leucate wind farm
13:02 S&P affirmed DeloPorts rating at B+ based on the results of 2020 with stable outlook
12:15 Korean Register launches latest ‘SeaTrust-HullScan’
11:30 MPA inks collaborations with partners to advance decarbonisation efforts
11:07 IAP on Maritime Decarbonisation unveils nine pathways to support decarbonisation in the maritime industry
10:37 European first for UK firm pioneering technology to transform shipping industry
10:27 Europe’s first Maritime value chain project for Liquid Hydrogen is short-listed as Norwegian candidate for IPCEI Hydrogen
09:51 Icebreaker assistance period ends at Passenger Port of St. Petersburg from April 21
09:30 Oil prices decrease amid returning COVID-19 risks
09:12 Baltic Dry Index as of April 20

2021 April 20

18:19 China's Sinopec successfully starts up two Dupont™ STRATCO® alkylation technology units
18:05 MINT Fund grant scheme to provide maritime technology start-ups in Singapore
17:25 MPA launches Singapore’s first Maritime Drone Estate
17:15 SEA-LNG warns against delay in addressing shipping decarbonisation
17:08 Launch of Singapore’s MDE as test bed for drone technologies
16:44 RF President signs law on long-term agreements for providing services involving nuclear-powered icebreakers
16:15 ONE launches Green Strategy Department
15:43 Solstad Offshore signs long-term contract for PSV in UK
15:20 ABS and Rainmaking to support Singapore’s decarbonization entrepreneurs
15:05 Icebreaker assistance period ends at the port of Vysotsk in the Leningrad Region
14:26 Budget allocations for construction of LNG terminal in Kamchatka Territory to exceed RUB 21 billion
14:02 Hiab to supply 37 loader cranes in Spain to maintain railway infrastructure
13:23 Alfa Laval starts testing methanol fuel cell systems for sustainable marine power supply
13:01 Bollinger Shipyards acquires Gulf Island Fabrication’s shipyard facilities
12:57 Icebreaker assistance period ends at Big Port St. Petersburg from April 21
12:30 Port of Helsinki cargo traffic up 3.6% in Q1 2021
12:11 Port of Antwerp expands its fleet with energy-efficient tugs
11:59 Investments at the Port of Gdynia – earlier than planned
11:18 Crowley completes first U.S. design for fully electric tug with autonomous technology
11:06 Admiralteiskie Verfi shipyard commences mooring trials of diesel-electric submarine named Magadan
10:35 Northern Dvina Basin Administration opens navigation season of 2021
10:07 SMW 2021: Maritime innovation in Singapore receives boost
09:48 KN and AFRY sign agreement on long-term capacity allocation and pricing model study of Lithuanian LNG terminal