• Home
  • News
  • MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 04, 2022
  • 2022 January 27 10:37

    MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 04, 2022

    The situation on the European gas market has somewhat stabilized over the past week, although the threat of a conflict escalation Russia-Ukraine still keeps price indices high

    The Weekly Outlook was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

    On a Week 04, the MABUX World Bunker Index remained at stable levels and did not show any significant changes. The 380 HSFO index rose by 1.74 USD: from 544.06 USD/MT to 545.80 USD/MT. The VLSFO index gained a symbolic 0.15 USD: from 695.39 USD/MT to 695.54 USD/MT, while the MGO index added 7.94 USD (from 817.07 USD/MT to 825.01 USD/MT). After solid growth in the first three weeks of the new year, the pace of the uptrend in bunker prices has slowed down.

    The Global Scrubber Spread (SS) weekly average - the difference in price between 380 HSFO and VLSFO - showed a moderate growth by $7.03 during the week, breaking $150.00 mark ($150.99 vs. $143.96 last week). In Rotterdam, the average weekly SS Spread increased even more: from $142.33 to $160.67 (plus $18.34 compared to last week). The average weekly SS Spread index in Singapore, on the contrary, unexpectedly fell by $6.17 to $187.83 from $194.00 last week. In general, SS Spread's performance did not have single trend across the major hubs, but Index was still well above the psychological $ 100 mark. More information is available in the Price Differences section of www.mabux.com.

    The situation on the European gas market has somewhat stabilized over the past week, although the threat of a conflict escalation Russia-Ukraine still keeps price indices high. The price of LNG as bunker fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) on January 24 was 2333 USD/MT (up 18 USD compared to the previous week). The price of LNG still significantly exceeds the prices of traditional bunker fuels (MGO LS - 805 USD/MT as of 25.01).

    On a Week 04, the correlation of MABUX MBP Index (Market Bunker Prices) vs MABUX DBP Index (MABUX Digital Bunker Prices (benchmark) showed that 380 HSFO fuel was overpriced in two ports out of four selected: in Rotterdam - plus $8 and in Houston - plus $ 19. In Singapore and Fujairah, the MABUX MBP/DBP Index registered an underpricing of 380 HSFO by $10 and $4 respectively. There were no significant changes in the MBP/DBP Index’s dynamics.

    VLSFO fuel grade, according to the MABUX MBP/DBP Index, turned out to be overvalued at all selected ports while Houston moved again into the overcharge zone - plus $ 5. For other ports, the overcharge was registered as: plus $ 34 in Rotterdam, plus $ 41 in Singapore and plus $ 45 in Fujairah. Except for Rotterdam, where the overcharge ratio increased by 16 points, changes of the MBP/DBP Index margins at all other ports turned out to be insignificant.

    As for MGO LS, the MABUX MBP/DBP Index registered an underestimation of this fuel grade in three of the four selected ports: Rotterdam - minus $ 13, Singapore - minus $ 23 and Fujairah - minus $ 4. Houston remains the only port where the MABUX MBP/DBP Index recorded overpricing - plus $22.

    In a new white paper, TotalEnergies is forecasting global marine fuel consumption to increase to around 46 Petajoules (PJ)/d by 2050, with oil-based and LNG bunker fuels still accounting for some 21 PJ/d of demand. In its projections for what the marine fuel mix might look like in 2030 and 2050, the company is forecasting bunker demand to rise from the 32 PJ/d level in 2019, to 38 PJ/d in 2030 and 46 PJ/d in 2050. TotalEnergies also reiterates its support for LNG as a key component in shipping’s energy transition. It is forecasting that the LNG bunker market could reach 10 million tonnes by 2025 and suggests it may represent 10% of the bunker market by 2030. Biofuels and biogas will represent only a small part of bunker demand in 2030 and 2050, according to TotalEnergies. Biofuel will account for 1-2 PJ/d in 2030, climbing slowly to around 2.5 PJ/d in 2050. The take-up of biogas will be even less, coming in at under 1 PJ/d in 2030 and rising to around 2 PJ/d in 2050. Electricity is set to match biofuel demand by 2050, at around 2.5 PJ/d.  The demand for hydrogen-based fuels, which covers H2, e-fuels (H2 + CO2), methanol and ammonia is expected to ramp up from around 1 PJ/d in 2030 to 17 PJ/d in 2050, which is still around 4 PJ/d behind the combined total of oil-based and LNG bunker fuels.

    By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX

2022 May 21

14:07 CIP proposes to build a hydrogen island in the North Sea by 2030
13:27 Sanmar Shipyards delivers highly manoeuvrable and powerful tug to Svitzer
12:37 ISS issues RFPs to construct North America’s first zero-emissions towboats for Zeeboat, LLC
11:32 Callan Marine christens 28” CSD General Bradley
10:51 DP World expands ambitious sustainability strategy

2022 May 20

18:15 Inland ports urge the true completion of the European Network
18:00 IAA PortNews’ summary of past week news
17:37 Port Kolomna holds keel-laying of Moskovsky-703 dredger, Project 4395
16:56 Gazpromneft Marine Bunker prolongs contract on operation of terminal in Saint-Petersburg port till 2027
16:05 Blue Tern to support jacket installation campaign on Neart na Goithe
15:51 RUSCON sent cargo to China via inland terminal in Nakhodka
15:29 DNV certifies first training platform provider Seably
14:24 USC is in talks with potential customers on construction of container ships
14:02 Port of Savannah moves nearly 500K TEUs in April 2022
13:59 RF Navy to take delivery of 20 warships in 2022 – Vice Prime Minister Yury Borisov
13:18 MOL holds joint public-private anti-piracy drill with LNG carrier 'LNG MARS'
12:54 Daewoo Shipbuilding сancels LNG сarrier order linked to Sovcomflot - The Maritime Executive
12:43 USC set to start serial production of components for ship propulsion units in 2024-2025
12:41 Russian oil producers start to book up an increasing number of tankers owned by Sovcomflot - Bloomberg
12:24 Corvus Energy sets up US battery factory to meet market demand for hybrid and zero-emission vessels
12:14 Wärtsilä extends leadership in hybrid vessel segment
11:52 GTT receives an order from Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries for the tank design of a new LNG carrier
10:55 Havyard Group ASA and HG Group AS merge to create a leading service provider
10:00 USC head forecasts increase of orders from defense industry
09:19 Crude oil futures decrease on possible rise of supplies to China
08:56 MABUX: Irregular changes to prevail in Global bunker market on May 20

2022 May 19

18:06 Valenciaport detects in April a decline in Spanish export activity
17:48 Border checkpoint opened at Ultramar terminal in Ust-Luga seaport
17:26 CIMC Raffles delivered the first of two record-breaking ships to Wallenius Sol
17:15 ClassNK certifies NAPA Fleet Intelligence and NAPA Performance Monitoring and Optimization, and adds new notations to ships
16:41 New zero-emission Côte d’Ivoire Terminal receives first port equipment
16:12 PortsToronto releases 2021 Audited Financial Statements
16:05 “K” Line Group’s Yokohama Daikoku C-4 Terminal starts operation utilizing renewable energy
15:38 OTEKO obtains ISO 9001 certificate for handling of dry bulk cargo
15:06 Port of Salalah commissions new equipment to increase efficiency and meet demand
14:13 The first ship equipped to utilize future fairway services tested at Port of Kokkola
13:49 Vladivostok Fish Terminal puts into operation refrigerating facility of 7,000 tonnes in capacity
13:02 Wärtsilä completes delivery of 15 LPG fuel supply systems
12:28 Development of programme for Ship Repair, Modernization and Components conference is underway
12:07 MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 20, 2022
12:03 Long-term rates for reefer containers on the key US West Coast to Far East route up 60% in April - Xeneta
11:50 H2-Industries set to clear the oceans of plastic waste and produce clean fuel from innovative ship design
11:32 EU policymakers still need more ambitious green measures - Danish Shipping
11:11 PortNews issues its annual analytical report “Civil Shipbuilding in Russia”
11:03 Ports Long Beach and Los Angeles give update on Clean Air Action Plan
10:36 Global Ship Lease announces new forward charter agreement
09:56 RS developed requirements on usage of alternative fuels
09:53 ZIM reports record financial results for Q1 2022
09:29 Russian oil exports in January-April 2022 declined by 0.6% to 66.3 million tonnes
09:13 Crude oil futures rise on US reserves reduction statistics
08:58 MABUX: Bunker prices may continue downward changes on May 19

2022 May 18

18:35 Jotun's new tool to forecast carbon intensity of vessel operations
17:56 Gasum considers that natural gas imports from Russia could end this week
17:20 RF Government to extend setting of quotas for exports of mineral fertilizers till December 2022
17:06 Port of Antwerp-Bruges & CMB.TECH prepare the first hydrogen-powered tugboat
16:18 Port of Hamburg container throughput up 1.8 percent to 2.2 million TEU in Q1 2022
16:05 Port Houston container volume up 21% to 334,493 TEUs in April 2022
15:18 EU regulators must recalibrate EU ETS reform to ensure shipping industry is green by 2050 - WSC
15:11 Container throughput of Russian ports in 4M’2022 totaled 1.7 million TEUs, down 5.4% YoY
14:48 Throughput of Russian seaports in 4M’2022 rose by 0.1% YoY