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  • MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 49, 2022
  • 2022 December 8 12:31

    MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 49, 2022

    The Weekly Outlook was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

    Despite expectations of sharp irregular changes provoked by price cap imposed by EU on Russian oil, the MABUX world bunker indices continued their firm decline over the Week 49. The 380 HSFO index fell by 15.82 USD: from 484.30 USD/MT last week to 468.48 USD/MT. The VLSFO index, in turn, fell by 13.20 USD, breaking through the 700 USD-mark (684.42 USD/MT versus 697.62 USD/MT last week). The MGO index also lost 34.87 USD (from 1042.36 USD/MT last week to 1007.49 USD/MT), coming close to the psychological mark of 1000 USD.

    Global Scrubber Spread (SS) - the price differential between 380 HSFO and VLSFO - showed a slight growth over the Week 49 - plus $ 2.62 ($ 215.94 vs. $ 213.32 last week), still close to the $ 200 mark. The Rotterdam SS Spread, on the contrary, resumed its decline - minus $ 10.00 to $ 180.00 versus $ 190.00 last week. In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO price differential also narrowed by $9.00 ($252.00 from $261.00 last week). We expect SS Spread still should not have any sustainable direction next week. More information is available in the Differentials section at mabux.com.

    Europe’s natural gas demand in November fell by nearly a quarter compared to the five-year average for the month. High prices are clearly driving demand destruction, with industrial demand seeing the largest decrease. Despite that, cold weather and lower-than-normal nuclear and wind power generation are sending gas prices climbing.

    The price of LNG as bunker fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) rose to 2610 USD/MT on December 05 (plus 131 USD compared to last week). Thus, the price of LNG exceeds the cost of the most expensive traditional bunker fuel grade by 1603 USD: on November 05, the price of MGO LS at the port of Sines was quoted at 1007 USD/MT.

    Over the Week 49, the MDI index (comparison of MABUX market bunker prices (MBP Index) vs MABUX digital bunker benchmark (DBP Index)) showed underestimation of 380 HSFO fuel grade in all four selected ports. The underprice premium increased slightly: in Rotterdam - minus $ 127, Singapore - minus $133, Fujairah - minus $193 and Houston - minus $69.

    In the VLSFO segment, according to MDI, Singapore and Fujairah remained overvalued: plus $49 and plus $25, respectively. In Rotterdam and Houston, this fuel grade was underestimated by average minus $46 and minus $5. Underpricing decreased, while overpricing rose slightly.

    In the MGO LS segment, MDI continued to register fuel underpricing in two out of four selected ports: Rotterdam - minus $67 and Houston - minus $55. Singapore and Fujairah remained overpriced: plus $8 and plus $146, respectively. The undercharge premium, as well as overcharge one, according to MDI, have decreased slightly.

    A total of 3,840 vessels called the Port of Gibraltar during first 10 months of the year – 21.7% down on the 4,904 registered in the same period in 2021. Port operations, including bunkering, were halted following the grounding of the OS 35 bulk carrier at the end of August. On 7 September the Port of Gibraltar announced that non-bunkering operations were poised to resume while on 22 September it was reported by GAC that alongside bunkering had resumed. Accordingly, there were 209 calls for bunkers in September – the lowest monthly total of the year and 286 fewer than the 495 recorded in September 2021. On 25 November, the Gibraltar Port Authority (GPA) announced that a technical proposal for the removal of the OS 35 and all its contents had been agreed in principle. There were 119 commercial ship-to-ship operations in the period. In contrast, during the first 10 months of the 2021, there were just 16.

    DNV reported, seventeen LNG-fuelled vessels were added to the global order book in November with container vessels and car carriers constituting nearly two thirds of the new contracts, Total orders for LNG fuelled ships for the year to date have now reached 203, while methanol fuel orders have reached 35. As per DNV comments, ‘with the preliminary agreement at the EU last week that shipping will be included in EU ETS starting from 2024, all low-carbon options now make even more sense. Methane emissions will also be included, so methane slip from engines will come under even greater scrutiny.’

    The price cap on Russian oil, imposed by the European Union on December 05, has not yet had a significant impact on world bunker indices so far. The Global fuel market is waiting for Russia's reaction to the imposed restrictions. We expect the downward trend in the global bunker market to continue next week.

    By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX

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13:19 New partnership aims to take Norwegian offshore wind to the next level
11:07 Hundreds evacuated after fire ignites on cruise ship in Sydney, Australia
09:38 Shell LNG bunker barge launched in Spain

2023 February 4

15:21 Milaha and Hareket sign a strategic alliance to provide integrated heavy lift and oversized transportation services
14:29 DOF awarded EPRD contract by Equinor
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2023 February 3

18:22 IAA PortNews’ summary of past week news
18:07 Port of Tallinn and Utilitas Wind to cooperate on the development of offshore wind farms
17:50 Gazpromneft Marine Bunker to supply 10,000 t of LNG for bunkering of Rosmorport’s ferries operating on Ust-Luga – Kaliningrad line
17:43 New container line connects the Port of Gothenburg with Iceland
17:23 OX2 and the Bank of Aland plan a Mega Green Port project in Aland
17:08 Sovcomflot’s new oil tanker Okeansky Prospect underwent first loading at port Kozmino
16:31 CMA CGM revises its NC Levant service connecting North Europe with East Med/Levant area
16:12 SCZONE and Hungarian HEPA will sign an expected joint agreement by the end of the month
15:46 DNV white paper outlines suggestions to achieve a sustainable maritime ecosystem in India
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13:42 Maersk North America and Ashdod Port Company sign agreement to collaborate on logistics and supply chain innovation
13:24 Drydocks World and Aker Solutions form joint venture to upgrade production at UK’s Rosebank oil and gas field
12:54 Fincantieri holds float out ceremony for the third luxury cruise ship for Regent Seven Seas Cruises
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12:16 Vyborg Shipyard and Atlantrybflot sign acceptance/delivery certificate for lead factory freezer trawler of Project KMT02.02
12:13 Eight shipyard workers injured in blast on Vietnamese bulk carrier
11:38 RF Government postpones acquisition of two Kometa 120M hydrofoils again
11:32 China boosts imports of fuel oil blended from Russian barrels - Reuters
10:53 DP World wins bid for development of a mega-container terminal at India’s Deendayal Port
10:31 Fujairah VLSFO sees biggest daily gain since July - Ship & Bunker
10:19 Railway ferry Baltiysk to return to Ust-Luga-Baltiysk line on 13 February 2023
09:57 ZIM upgrades its Asia-US East Coast ZXB service
09:21 Rosatom supports 6th Modern Solutions for Hydraulic Works Conference as its Partner

2023 February 2

18:07 ZIM introduces a new premium line from South America West Coast to US East Coast
17:41 Italian ship makes record journey into Antarctic
17:25 WinGD demonstrated its latest X-DF-2.0 technology, on-engine iCER, to several LNG carrier owners
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16:34 Equinor says sanctions prevented it helping on Nord Stream - Reuters
16:15 Dan-Bunkering announces Managing & Commercial Director of Dan-Bunkering Europe
15:54 KSK Grain Terminal in Novorossiysk almost doubled its throughput in January 2023
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15:04 MOL becomes world's first company to earn AiP for vessel cyber resilience
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13:52 Coal supplies from Siberia to Asia via the ports of Russia’s South and North-West are on the verge of profitability - Bank of Russia
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11:40 Armada Technologies wins contract with Irish Ferries
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11:00 Stolt Tankers performs groundbreaking ship-to-ship methanol bunkering
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10:14 MOL signs collaboration deal with Nagasaki Prefecture for shipbuilding-related industries and renewable energy projects
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