• Home
  • News
  • MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 10, 2023
  • 2023 March 9 14:19

    MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 10, 2023

    The Weekly Outlook was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

    Over the Week 10, MABUX global bunker indices remained rangebound with no firm trend. The 380 HSFO index rose by 10.68 USD: from 479.56 USD/MT last week to 490.24 USD/MT, approaching again 500 USD mark. The VLSFO index, in turn, fell by a symbolic 0.09 USD (668.86 USD/MT versus 668.95 USD/MT last week). The MGO index also lost 3.50 USD (from 951.18 USD/MT last week to 947.68 USD/MT). At the time of writing, the market was in a slight downtrend.

    Global Scrubber Spread (SS) - the price differential between 380 HSFO and VLSFO - showed a moderate decline in a Week 10 - minus $10.77 ($178.62 vs. $189.39 last week). At the same time, the weekly average decreased less significantly - by $ 3.90. In Rotterdam, SS Spread also fell by $3.00 to $162.00 (versus $165.00 last week), while the weekly average rose by $15.83. In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO price difference showed the most significant reduction: minus $20, dropping to $145. The weekly average fell by $21.66. We expect that SS Spread still remains some potential for contraction next week. More information is available in the "Differentials" section of www.mabux.com.

    The Energy Information Administration has decreased its forecast for natural gas prices for 2023 and 2024. The EIA now sees natural gas prices averaging $3.02 per MMBtu this year, down 11.2 percent from its previous forecast of $3.40 per MMBtu. For comparison, natural gas prices averaged $6.42 per MMBtu in 2022, the EIA estimates. The EIA has also lowered its forecast for natural gas prices for next year, to $3.89 per MMBtu, down from its estimate of $4.04 per MMBtu made its previous report.

    The price of LNG as a bunker fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) continued to decline and reached 962 USD/MT on March 07 (minus 100 USD compared to the previous week). The price difference between LNG and conventional fuel on March 07 was only 43 USD: MGO LS at the port of Sines was quoted at 919 USD/MT that day. The price difference at the moment is almost levelled. We expect LNG price to continue downtrend next week. More information is available in the “LNG Bunkering” section at www.mabux.com.

    Over the Week 10, the MDI index (correlation of MABUX market bunker prices (MBP Index) vs MABUX digital bunker benchmark (DBP Index)) kept fuel 380 HSFO underestimated in all four selected ports. The underestimation weekly average did not have a sustainable trend, widening in Rotterdam and Houston to minus $107 and minus $66, respectively, but narrowing in Singapore and Fujairah to $77 and $107.

    In the VLSFO segment, according to MDI, the three selected ports - Rotterdam, Singapore and Fujairah - remain undervalued by minus $54, minus $23 and minus $30, respectively. The underestimation weekly average at three ports changed irregular. Houston remained the only overvalued port in this fuel segment - plus $16, the overpricing rate has been halved.

    There are still three ports in the MGO LS segment: Rotterdam, Singapore and Houston. The weekly average underpricing premium rose moderately in Rotterdam and Singapore to $94 and $101 respectively but decreased in Houston to $54. Fujairah remained the only overvalued port - plus $155. In general, the MDI changes in this fuel segment were insignificant.

    More information on the correlation between market prices and MABUX digital benchmark is available in the “Digital Bunker Prices” section at www.mabux.com.

    According to DNV, there were 22 orders and confirmations for methanol-fuelled vessels in February. There are now 106 confirmed orders for methanol-fuelled ships, with 25 vessels currently in operation – 22 of which are in the oil/chemical segment. When it comes to the order book, then the box ship segment is still way out in front, with 68 orders. In February, Hyundai Merchant Marine (HMM) ordered nine 9,000 TEU containerships, and Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering Co. (KSOE) said it has won an order for 12 methanol-fuelled box ships, with the purchaser widely reported to be France’s CMA CGM. Although methanol had a record month for orders in February, LNG also scored a very respectable 10 orders. There are now 886 confirmed LNG-fuelled ships, with 368 already in operation. The containership segment leads the pack, with 189 vessels on order and 45 in operation. The car carrier segment comes in some way behind, with 118 on order and 11 in operation.

    The global bunker market remains relatively stable. We expect Global bunker indices to keep irregular fluctuations next week.

    By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX

2023 June 7

18:11 ABS and Vaholmen sign landmark LOI for the development of a VOC recovery vessel
18:02 DP World's innovative rail incentive to drive decarbonisation of UK supply chains
17:59 Sredne-Nevsky Shipyard commenced sea trials of passenger catamaran Fort Kronshlot, lead ship of Kotlin design
17:44 ABP reports record five-month volume of cargo
17:39 Pakistan International Container Terminal, SeaLead launch Pakistan-Australia direct service
17:18 USCG commissioned its newest cutter Maurice Jester
17:10 Construction of Zhatai Shipyard in Yakutia is still behind the schedule
16:54 MOL's first female captain takes command of car carrier
16:43 Unsafe and unseaworthy cargo ship banned from Australian waters – AMSA
16:20 Federation Council of Russia approved denunciation of treaty with Ukraine on the use of the Sea of Azov and the Kerch Strait
16:02 Port Facility Security Training Course is taking place in Makassar, Indonesia
15:46 Distracted bridge watch officers do not detect approaching vessel, NTSB says
15:34 MOL conducts sea trial of Starlink satellite communication service onboard ocean-going vessel
15:32 ABS SMART AiP awarded to SHI structural health monitoring system
15:11 Diana Shipping announces time charter contract for m/v New York with SwissMarine
15:06 ICTSI increases investments at Matadi Gateway
14:18 DeepOcean awarded post-lay trenching works offshore Mexico
14:04 Sollers to restart its plant for production of diesel engines in Elabuga
13:42 APM Terminals extends concession of Kalundborg container terminal and introduces new customer services
13:29 Aker BP’s major projects approved by Stortinget
13:25 Throughput of port Shanghai (China) in 5M’2023 rose by 12.5% YoY
12:40 First ice-class passenger ship to be put on river line in Arkhangelsk in navigation 2025
12:17 Survitec digitalises ship safety management with a new interactive graphical monitoring solution
11:23 ABS grants Provaris AiP for its innovative compressed hydrogen technology
10:41 Trade turnover between Russia and China in 5M’2023 rose by 40.7% YoY
10:37 Inchcape Shipping Services names Anna Evangelidis as new COO
10:19 Technical concerns arise over vessel inspections, IMCA analysis shows
09:43 Rosmorport signs agreements with Russian companies on cooperation in replacing foreign software for navigation safety
09:17 Russian Railways, Russia’s Ministry of Transport and market participants establish digital service for seamless multimodal deliveries

2023 June 6

18:29 LR and LISCR award Design Approval for world’s first 22,000cbm multi-Gas carrier
17:55 Six agreements signed with key investors to ensure cost-effective cargo base for NSR
17:41 WinGD and Mitsubishi Shipbuilding sign MoU for ammonia collaboration
17:32 AD Ports Group inks 25 years agreement with Crystal Offshore
17:16 ULMATEC wins third W2W contract
16:44 First battery electric tug from Sanmar Shipyards delivered to ABS class
15:58 Russian Railways increased export coal transportation to North-West ports by 22.8% in 5M’2023
15:36 Boskalis and Royal IHC sign LOI to build a new 31,000 m3 TSHD
15:24 Maritime professionals warn of insufficient investment in cyber security as risks escalate in the era of connectivity – DNV
14:13 OOCL expands its fleet with another 24,188 TEU container vessel “OOCL Turkiye”
14:05 Austal Vietnam delivers a high speed catamaran to French Polynesia
13:54 Samara based shipyard of Nefteflot to launch sixth survey ship of Project RDB 66.62 on June 7
13:23 SW Tasman redesigned to deliver next-gen deepwater dual ROV OBN vessel
13:17 HD Hyundai Heavy Industries develops next-generation models of Korean destroyers and other combat ships
12:55 Transportation of containers on Russian Railways’ network in 5M’2023 rose by 11.3% YoY
12:31 ONE takes delivery of 24,000-teu container ship "ONE INNOVATION"
11:46 Gasum starts building Europe's northernmost liquefied biogas filling station in Finnish Lapland
11:41 Boosting maritime security in Togo - IMO
11:23 Croatian Navy places a repeat order for PLAR-4000 davit for its OPV
10:19 DNV grants WARMS Approval in Principle
10:00 Russian Railways increased cargo transportation by North-South ITC by 54% - Oleg Belozerov
09:19 Bunker sales at Vladivostok port in 5M’2023 fell by 21% YoY

2023 June 5

18:27 Pacific maritime leaders to meet on maritime issues this week in Sydney
18:02 Nuclear-powered icebreaker 50 Let Pobedy escorted 125 vessels over winter-spring navigation season
17:51 ABB wins large systems order for Havfram Wind’s two new offshore wind turbine installation vessels
17:41 Ardmore Shipping gets carbon capture ready with VM’s emissions-reducing technology
17:36 Inmarsat Maritime report presents framework for a successful transition to a greener future
17:16 Biofuel key to maritime decarbonization, but proliferation challenged by scarce supply, says DNV
16:53 COSCO SHIPPING Heavy Industry Technology signs methanol fuel supply system project for four container ships
16:26 OPEC+ countries agreed to adjust oil production to 40.46 million barrels per day
16:08 COSCO SHIPPING Lines launches ANE service maiden voyage