• 2024 February 1 15:11

    MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 05, 2024

    The Weekly Outlook was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

    Following the results of the 05th week, the MABUX global bunker indices demonstrated moderate growth. The 380 HSFO index rose by 13.81 USD: from 502.49 USD/MT last week to 516.30 USD/MT, firmly exceeding the 500 USD mark. The VLSFO index, in turn, gained 23.51 USD (675.00 USD/MT versus 651.49 USD/MT last week). The MGO index also rose by 24.50 USD (from 894.19 USD/MT last week to 918.69 USD/MT), breaking the 900 USD mark. At the time of writing, the market was undergoing a moderate downward correction.

    Global Scrubber Spread (SS) - the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO - continued its directional growth: plus $9.70 ($158.70 versus $149.00 last week). The weekly average also increased by $14.35. In Rotterdam, SS Spread rose by $5.00 (from $124.00 last week to 129.00), firmly exceeding the $100 mark, and the weekly average increasing by $12.16. In Singapore, the price difference for 380 HSFO/VLSFO increased by $6 ($195.00 versus $189.00 last week), breaking through the $200 mark during the week. The weekly average also increased by $26.67. The sustained uptrend of SS Spread enhances the profitability of utilizing the currently cheapest high sulfur fuel HSFO in combination with a scrubber. More information is available in the “Differentials” section of www.mabux.com.

    It appears that the oil and gas industry is projected to invest over $1 trillion in natural gas supply, with a significant portion, $223 billion, allocated for developing and operating new gas extraction sites to meet the demand in Europe. Despite a potential structural decline in Europe's gas demand, the continent needs to secure alternative supplies to replace Russian pipeline gas, which was its primary source until 2022. In response to reduced Russian gas deliveries, Europe has shifted its focus to liquefied natural gas (LNG) and increased pipeline supplies from Norway and Africa to fulfill its energy needs. The major players in this substantial investment include ExxonMobil, Shell, TotalEnergies, Equinor, and Eni, collectively expected to spend around $144 billion over the next decade to ensure a stable gas supply for Europe.

    The price of LNG as bunker fuel in the port of Rotterdam (Netherlands) continued its decline, reaching 606 USD/MT on January 31 (minus 2.75 USD compared to last week). Concurrently, the price gap between LNG and conventional fuel widened to 200 USD in favor of LNG versus 169 USD a week earlier. On January 31, MGO LS was quoted at 806 USD/MT in the port of Rotterdam. More information is available in the LNG Bunkering section of www.mabux.com.

    During the 04th week, the MDI index (the ratio of market bunker prices (MABUX MBP Index) vs. the MABUX digital bunker benchmark (MABUX DBP Index)) recorded the following trends in four selected ports: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah and Houston:

    In the 380 HSFO segment, all four selected ports were in the underpriced zone. The weekly average underpricing increased by 2 points in Rotterdam, 7 points in Singapore, 1 point in Fujairah and 15 points in Houston. The MDI index in Fujairah consistently exceeds the $100 mark.

    In the VLSFO segment, according to MDI, three ports - Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston - were in the overcharge zone. Weekly average overprice premiums rose by 14 points in Singapore, 3 points in Fujairah and 4 points in Houston. The only underpriced port in this bunker fuel segment remains Rotterdam, where the average underprice ratio decreased by 7 points.

    In the MGO LS segment, MDI recorded underpricing of this fuel type in all four selected ports. Average weekly premiums increased in Rotterdam by 9 points, in Singapore by 5 points and in Fujairah by 36 points. The MDI index in Houston remained unchanged.

    The overall dynamics of the MDI index in the world's largest hubs remains in a phase of irregular changes.

    More information on the correlation between market prices and the MABUX digital benchmark is available in the “Digital Bunker Prices” section of www.mabux.com.

    A recent study conducted by researchers at Oxford University has determined that a global investment of approximately $2 trillion will be essential to support the infrastructure required for transitioning the worldwide shipping fleet to predominantly utilize green ammonia as a fuel source. It's important to note that these estimated investments exclude expenses related to engine retrofits or the acquisition of new engines. A critical challenge in adopting green ammonia lies in establishing effective connections between the locations where the fuel will be produced and the areas with concentrated shipping demand. The primary investment focus and opportunity for production are anticipated to be in Northern and Western Australia, positioning the region as the main supplier for Asian markets. Additionally, significant production clusters are expected to emerge in Chile (to meet South American demand), California (to address the needs of the western US), North-West Africa (to fulfill European demand), and the southern Arabian Peninsula (to cater to local demand and specific regions in South Asia). While Europe is poised to be a key region for ammonia demand, it is projected to contribute only limited quantities to the overall fuel production.

    The Port of Rotterdam reported a decline in the volume of fossil bunker fuels delivered in the fourth quarter of 2023, reaching 1,919,685 metric tonnes – a 15% decrease compared to the previous quarter and a 25% year-on-year decrease. In the same period, sales of bio-blended marine fuels for Q4 2023 totaled 233,108 metric tonnes, showing an increase from the 183,499 metric tonnes in the preceding quarter but a decrease from the 269,739 metric tonnes achieved in the final quarter of 2022. For the entire year of 2023, the total volume of fossil bunker fuels amounted to 9,160,756 metric tonnes, marking a 7% decrease, or 674,986 metric tonnes, compared to the 9,835,742 metric tonnes sold in 2022. The annual total for bio-blended marine fuels in 2023 also declined year-on-year, dropping from 790,851 metric tonnes to 751,638 metric tonnes. LNG sales in the fourth quarter of 2023 amounted to 148,933 cubic meters, reflecting a decrease from the 204,418 cubic meters recorded in the previous quarter but a substantial increase from the 58,599 cubic meters sold in Q4 2022. The total LNG sales for the entire year of 2023 reached 619,243 cubic meters, surpassing the 406,599 cubic meters sold in 2022 by over 50%.

    We expect the upward trend to continue dominating the dynamics of global bunker indices in the upcoming week.

    By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX




2024 May 12

16:09 Yang Ming reports net profit of US$ 298.42 million for Q1 2024
15:13 Drydocks World unveils major propeller repair enhancements and new facilities
14:06 NYK launches trial to utilize 3D models in design of new LPG tanker
13:29 GCMD and NYK Line team up to address concerns of long-term, continuous biofuels use on vessel operations
12:13 State-of-the-art ammonia reforming technology from Amogy verified by ABS
11:41 MABUX: Bunker Outlook, Week 19, 2024
11:38 MOL joins project to develop frozen and refrigerated warehouse in Singapore
10:52 Jan De Nul EBITDA rose 39% to 610 million euro in 2023

2024 May 11

18:01 Drewry: Investments surge on strong demand outlook for LNG bunkering
17:19 Seatrium signs multi-year technology collaboration agreement with ABS to accelerate decarbonisation and energy transition
16:49 Kotug Canada holds keel laying ceremony for two RAsalvor 4400 DFM methanol fuelled tugs
15:47 Two RAmparts 3500 ASD tugs enter service at Tianjin Port
13:17 TotalEnergies announces first oil production on Eldfisk North
11:02 Petramina welcomes VLGC duo in its tanker fleet
10:38 Fairplay Towage Group places order for two additional Damen ASD tugs

2024 May 10

15:37 MITSUI E&S production volume of large marine engines reaches 155 units in FY2023
13:51 Fincantieri: Vard to build a hybrid Ocean Energy Construction Vessel for the norwegian shipping group Island Offshore
11:46 Med Marine selects Kongsberg Maritime thrusters for six stern-drive tugs for Tunisian port authority
09:52 Seatrium signs multi-year technology collaboration agreement with ABS to accelerate decarbonisation and energy transition

2024 May 9

16:04 Wallenius Wilhelmsen announces another solid quarter
14:23 Stena Line to increase cargo capacity by 30% on Stena Forerunner and Stena Foreteller
12:06 ClassNK releases report “ClassNK Alternative Fuels Insight”
10:13 Sea-Intelligence: Improved vessel delays may release more capacity

2024 May 8

18:00 ADNOC signs third long-term Heads of Agreement for Ruwais LNG project
17:11 VARD picks TMC to equip newbuild cable laying vessel
16:47 QatarEnergy and Nakilat enter long-term agreement to charter and operate nine “QC-Max” class LNG vessels
16:16 Qingdao port sees cargo and container volume growth in Q1
15:56 Tanker orderbook relative to active fleet rises to highest level in five years
15:28 Svitzer completes tug series delivery in Brazil
13:41 Brazil floods hit food silos, disrupt routes to the port of Rio Grande
13:17 Shell to sell interest in Singapore Energy and Chemicals Park to CAPGC
12:47 Baltic Shipyard commences dock-side trials of Project 22220 icebreaker Yakutia
12:43 Wartsila 25 engine to power three new fishing vessels
11:10 ABS awards world’s first REMOTE-CON Notation for FPSO Liza Unity
10:44 Jan De Nul puts spray pontoon DN178 into use
10:17 Korea сan overtake China in shipbuilding market share
09:41 New Dayang receives an order for two bulkers from United Marine Egypt

2024 May 7

18:00 PPA hands over ICPC to VCT
17:05 TotalEnergies and Sinopec strengthen cooperation
16:42 Evergreen orders six container ships in China
16:33 Zelenodolsk Shipyard hosts launching ceremony for Navy’s duo
16:15 Valenciaport receives three bids for the tender for the management of La Marina
15:31 Vessel from Ukraine grounded in Turkey's Bosphorus Strait
15:14 ICTSI net income up 36% to US$209.88 mln in Jan-March of 2024
14:45 HD Hyundai files complaint against Hanwha Ocean for alleged defamation in leak of military secrets
14:27 Hapag-Lloyd and IKEA collaborate to advance cleaner shipping
13:57 Marlink upgrades managed hybrid network across Simon Møkster Shipping’s offshore fleet
11:25 Vard Marine welcomes BluMetric Environmental into the Team Vigilance Preferred Suppliers Program
10:48 WinGD secures an order for its X‑DF‑A ammonia-fuelled engines

2024 May 6

18:00 CMA CGM to suspend Bremerhaven call on its SAFRAN service connecting East Coast South America with Europe
17:12 CMA CGM announces PSS from Asia to East Africa, South Africa and Indian ocean
16:47 Taylor Smith Shipyard announces cooperation agreement with Nouum Engineering
16:09 Incat Crowther-commissioned to design new fast supply vessel for African offshore energy sector
15:47 Seaspan completes rollout of Starlink across entire fleet
15:26 Asia is the largest importer of LNG
13:50 Goa shipyard holds the keel laying ceremony of the first new generation maritime patrol ship
13:20 Maersk says Red Sea disruption will cut capacity by 15-20% in Q2 2024
12:43 DP World acquires Laos dry port operator Savan Logistics
11:42 Seatrium secures FPSO topsides integration contract with MODEC
11:25 CMA CGM to strengthen and reshuffle its Africa lines - India Middle East Gulf services
10:46 Fortescue completes trials chassis and maneuverability testing of dual-fuelled ammonia-powered vessel in the Port of Singapore

2024 May 5

17:41 Visayas Container Terminal delivers enhanced productivity, efficiency to ICPC
15:07 Höegh LNG announces agreement to deploy FSRU Hoegh Galleon to Egypt
14:22 Metal Shark building 22 high-speed surface interceptor vessels for JDF
12:14 AAL's B-Class heavy lift ship named at a Chinese shipyard
10:04 DNV: April sees jump in methanol-fueled tanker orders

2024 May 4

15:17 Lomar takes bulker investment to $127 million inside a year
13:47 HD Hyundai, ABS to set standards for e-propulsion ships
12:08 Australian Govt selects BAE Systems and ASC to build sovereign nuclear powered submarines
10:51 Van Oord’s heavy lift installation vessel undergoes upgrade