TGS market overview report: Strong expectations continue in offshore wind despite short-term downgrades
Another regular aspect of the report is an index of “market attractiveness”
TGS, the leading global provider of energy data and intelligence, has stated an estimated global ambition of over 800 GW of annual wind-produced power, according to their latest Market Overview Report, powered by 4C Offshore, their wind market intelligence platform. This figure, derived from an analysis of each country’s implicit and explicit offshore wind targets, highlights the industry's continued growth potential despite recent downward revisions in forecasts for offshore wind delivery by 2030 and 2035.
The report, TGS's most comprehensive to date, offers a detailed quarterly review of the current global situation in the offshore wind industry. It includes an analysis of 32 key markets, with 11 explored in depth, providing valuable insights into the future of offshore wind energy. The report covers industry forecasts, market indications, auction timetables and an overview of expected global events in the next six months.
Another regular aspect of the report is an index of “market attractiveness”, which ranks the world’s most advanced floating wind markets across seven factors that influence project development. This quarter, the report stated that the United Kingdom remains the world's most attractive market in this category based on strengths in consenting, leasing, tendering, and incentives. It notes that AR6 will be a turning point for whether any commercial-scale floating wind project can be delivered in the UK before 2030. Norway, South Korea and France follow closely behind.
The 4C Offshore analysis includes critical forecasts for the offshore wind industry, emphasizing the capacity of projects starting offshore installation by the end of specific years, not just those becoming operational. This quarter’s forecasts predict offshore wind (fixed and floating) to reach 258 GW by 2030 and 563 GW by 2040. For floating wind alone, they forecast 7.3 GW installed or underway by 2030, 30.6 GW by 2035, and 70.9 GW by 2040.
Other highlights include:
A total of 73.1 GW of offshore wind is now fully commissioned globally, up 3.6 GW from the previous quarter. China still leads with 34.8 GW, followed by the UK (14.8 GW) and Germany (8.2 GW).
Exclusive seabed rights granted by governments leaped to approximately 25 GW in Q2 2024, the third-highest site award number ever recorded. Australia led with six projects totaling 12 GW, including proposals by energy leaders Ørsted and Iberdrola.
This quarter also saw a substantial investment boost with RWE's investment decision for its 1.6 GW Nordseecluster (A&B) in the German North Sea and Ørsted’s Sunrise Wind for its 924 MW project off the U.S. East Coast.
The 4C Offshore Market Overview Report from TGS provides essential insights and data for stakeholders in the offshore wind industry. With comprehensive coverage of key markets and up-to-date forecasts, this report is an invaluable resource for understanding offshore wind energy's current landscape and future outlook.
TGS releases regular intelligence reports on a wide variety of offshore energy subjects, powered by 4C Offshore market intelligence. These include wind farms, construction & heavy maintenance, wind logistics, and offshore transmission and cables.
