Russia's liquids production in January decreased m-o-m by 36 thousand barrels per day
In January 2023, crude exports from Primorsk increased by 377 tb/d, or 66%, to average 948 tb/d, according to OPEC Monthly Oil Report.
Exports from the Baltic Sea jumped 460 tb/d m-o-m, or by about 41%, to average 1.6 mb/d.
Exports from Ust-Luga rose 83 tb/d, or about 15%, to average 635 tb/d.
Crude exports through the Transneft system in January regained the losses seen in the previous month. Outflows averaged just under 4.0 mb/d, representing an increase of 277 tb/d, or over 7%, m-o-m. Compared with the same month last year, exports were up 90 tb/d or 2%.
Shipments from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk edged down by 23 tb/d, or about 4%, to average 527 tb/d. Shipments via the Druzhba pipeline fell by 254 tb/d or almost 40% m-o-m to average 384 tb/d in January.
Exports to China via the ESPO pipeline were broadly unchanged averaging 598 tb/d in January. Flows to the Pacific port of Kozmino increased 92 tb/d, or about 12% m-o-m, to average 858 tb/d. In the Lukoil system, exports via the Varandey offshore platform in the Barents Sea averaged 109 tb/d in January, down by about 7% m-o-m.
There were no exports from the Kaliningrad terminal for the third month in a row. On other routes, Russia’s Far East exports increased 13%, or 26 tb/d, to average 235 tb/d in January. This was still a drop of 32%, or 112 tb/d, compared to the volumes shipped in the same month last year.
Black Sea total exports from the CPC terminal fell sharply, down by more than 15% or 234 tb/d, to average 1.3 mb/d in January. This was a loss of 10% compared with the same month last year. Total crude oil exports from Russia and Central Asia were marginally unchanged in January, averaging 6.4 mb/d. Flows were also broadly stable compared with the same month last year.
According to the report, Russia's liquids production in January decreased m-o-m by 36 tb/d to average 11.2 mb/d. This includes 9.8 mb/d of crude oil and 1.4 mb/d of NGLs and condensate.
For 2023, Russian liquids production is forecast to drop by 0.7 mb/d to average 10.3 mb/d. According to the Report, China, India and Turkey have emerged as key buyers of Russia's crude and a sound price level turned out to be supportive as well. In terms of crude imports by source, Russia is estimatd to have reclaimed the top spot in January and February with a share of 18%. Saudi Arabia was second with a share of 16% and Iraq was third with 12%.
In terms of crude imports by source, Kpler data shows Russia was the top supplier of crude to India in January for the seventh-consecutive month with a share of 30% or 1.4 mb/d. Iraq was second with 19%, followed by Saudi Arabia with 16% and the US with 10%.
For 2023, the world oil demand growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.3 mb/d, with the OECD Americas and OECD Europe revised slightly lower, while China is revised higher. OECD demand is expected to grow by 0.2 mb/d, while non-OECD is forecast to grow by 2.1 mb/d. China’s reopening, following the lifting of the strict zero-COVID-19 policy, will add considerable momentum to global economic growth. Following estimated growth of 2.5 mb/d y-oy in 2022, oil demand is forecast to grow by a healthy 2.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2023 to average at 101.9 mb/d.
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2023 is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d to average 67.2 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while the decline is expected primarily in Russia. Nevertheless, large uncertainties remain over the impact of ongoing geopolitical developments, as well as the output potential for US shale in 2023, according to the Report.