• 2018 May 24 16:15

    MABUX: Bunker prices continue upward trend

    The Bunker Review is contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange

    World oil indexes have demonstrated firm upward trend during the week (despite of slight de-cline on May 23 due to an unexpected build in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories) and were at their highest in three and a half years.  Geopolitics continued to be the main supportive factor: the market grows increasingly wary over possible supply outages due to US sanctions on Iran, Venezuela’s crisis, and OPEC’s adherence to its production cut deal.

    MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO at the main world hubs) also demonstrated slight upward trend in the period of May.17 – May 24:
        
    380 HSFO - up from 442,21 00 to 448,64 USD/MT(+6.43)
    180 HSFO - up from 480,64 to 487,29 USD/MT     (+6.65)
    MGO        - up from 708.79 to 714,43 USD/MT     (+5.64)

    The International Energy Agency (IEA) is ready to act if necessary to ensure that markets re-main well supplied. The agency is talking to both oil producers and oil consumers as crude prices recently reached their highest level since November 2014 on the back of heightened geopolitical concerns. Two weeks ago the IEA said that the restoration of sanctions on Iran may have implications for the market balance, adding that it is closely following the situation. Saudi Arabia in turn suggested shortly after the U.S. announced its withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal that OPEC would act to mitigate any supply shortfall should it occur.

    OECD crude inventories fell in March by 27 million barrels, putting total stocks at a three-year low and, crucially, 1 million barrels below the five-year average. OPEC has claimed for more than a year that it was trying to erase the inventory surplus, and at least according to IEA data, that mission has now been accomplished.

    Meantime, OPEC and Russia were discussing price volatility on the oil market. It is expected that OPEC would step in to mitigate supply losses, although for now, the preference is to leave the production limits unchanged. OPEC officials have said the price rally is being driven by fear and not based on the fundamentals.

    Also, one of the main market’s concerns is additional U.S. sanctions against Venezuela after President Nicolas Maduro was re-elected for a six-year term. The process has been criticized by the United States, the European Union and major Latin America countries. Possible sanctions could hurt Venezuelan oil supply further, already reeling from lack of maintenance and state-run PDVSA’s inability to pay its bills. Most recently, the company elected to close its refinery in Curacao after ConocoPhillips has seized oil as it seeks to collect on a $2 billion court award. Barclays said output from Venezuela could fall below 1 million barrels per day while the country produced around 1.4 million bpd in April.

    Ahead of U.S. sanctions on Iran, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo threatened even tougher sanctions against the Islamic Republic. Pompeo claimed the sanctions would be the strongest in history when complete. The White House also laid out new demands for Iran on May 21, which said any new nuclear deal with the U.S. would require Iran to stop enriching uranium and to pull its support for militant groups in the Middle East.

    Iran in turn prepares for some disruption in its oil industry after the reintroduction of U.S. sanctions and would probably rely mostly on its biggest buyers: China, India and the European Un-ion. All of them have clearly indicated they had no intention to stop buying Iranian crude, with the EU specifically signalling it would make an effort to uphold the Iran nuclear deal and shield companies doing business in the country from U.S. sanctions.

    Meantime, President Trump is also pressuring Germany to scrap the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline from Russia if it wants to avoid a trade war with the United States. Trump reportedly told German Chancellor Angela Merkel that the U.S. would restart talks with the EU on a trade deal in exchange for Germany cancelling the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

    U.S. commercial crude inventories surged by 5.8 million barrels in the week-ending May 18. Traders were looking for a drawdown of 2.5 million barrels. U.S. crude oil exports dropped by more than 800,000 barrels a day last week to about 1.75 million barrels a day. Additionally, crude imports were up to 558,000 barrels.

    US oil production rose again in the week ending May 11, reaching 10.725 million bpd—the thirteenth build in as many weeks—and less than 300,000 bpd shy of the 11.0 million bpd forecast that many are predicting for 2018. US production has steadily increased since OPEC engaged in a supply cut deal. At the time the deal was announced, the US was producing 8.6 million bpd. Today, the US is producing more than 2.0 million bpd over that figure, while OPEC/NOPEC continues to curb supply on its end. Meantime, the U.S. oil rig count held steady at 844 last week after rising for six weeks in a row.

    There is a sign of hope that ongoing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing could be remedied. China said that it agreed to significantly increase its purchases of American goods and services, including energy and agricultural commodities. The disclosure came after the conclusion of intensive trade talks in Washington on May 19. A joint statement said, there was a consensus on taking effective measures to substantially reduce the United States’ trade deficit in goods with China. However, the two sides did not indicate if they would either delay or drop trade tariffs threats.

    China’s crude oil inventories rose by 65.3 percent between March and April, or by 37.84 mil-lion barrels on the back of lower refinery throughput rates and higher imports. This month should see another increase in oil stocks as imports remain robust. These hit a record high last month, at 9.64 million barrels daily, up by 14.7 percent on the year and by 4.1 percent on the month. But while China has been importing more crude, the source pattern of this crude has been changing. Earlier this month, Sinopec said it will cut crude oil shipments from Saudi Arabia by 40 percent in June, after it did the same with May shipments, after Riyadh surprisingly raised the price of its light crude for Asian clients. At the same time, Beijing has assured Iran it will continue buying crude from it despite U.S. sanctions.

    We expect geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the situation in Venezuela will continue to support prices at least until OPEC’s next meeting with Russia, due in a month, when an announcement of quota easing might pressure them further. So bunker prices will continue upward evolution next week.

     

     

     

     

     

     

    All prices stated in USD / Mton
    All time high Brent = $147.50 (July 11, 2008)
    All time high Light crude (WTI) = $147.27 (July 11, 2008)




2021 January 15

18:15 Organic fertilizers and biogas from biowaste in the Helsinki region – commercial use of the Lohja biogas plant started up
18:04 New Speakers and Sponsors announced for Unmanned Maritime Systems Technology virtual conference
17:51 High reliability of Limburg Express requires expansion
17:41 Gulf of Guinea records highest ever number of crew kidnapped in 2020, according to IMB’s annual piracy report
17:38 Diana Shipping announces increase in tender offer price for its shares of common stock and extension of expiration date
17:29 OCEAN Alliance Day 5 Product signing ceremony
17:08 i4 Insight partner with FNT to integrate Condition Monitoring service
17:06 Throughput of Rostov-on-Don port in 2020 grew by 13% Y-o-Y
17:03 The effects of the coronavirus epidemic prevention regulations on Finnlines passenger traffic
16:42 Launching of Viking Glory slated for Jan 26
16:28 Carisbrooke Shipping and SMT Shipping partner with Nautilus Labs for collaboration to optimize fleet performance
16:01 Tallink Grupp appoints new Managing Director for Swedish subsidiary Tallink Silja AB
15:17 USCG cutter Joseph Gerczak to increase maritime presence in Pacific
14:47 First steel cut for new Carnival Celebration, next Excel-class ship set to debut from PortMiami in 2022
14:22 Zvezda Shipyard starts cutting steel for third MR product carrier
13:57 Bunkering of a new-generation LNG-powered container ships begins in Rotterdam
13:26 Holland America Line opens bookings for Europe 2022 cruises - four ships span the region on itineraries ranging from 7 to 21 days
13:08 SCF takes delivery of new LNG carrier to expand long-standing partnership with Shell
12:49 Anatoly Meshcheryakov appointed as Director of Transport Department
12:34 BW Offshore: Incident on FPSO Espoir Ivoirien
11:21 Sakura Kuma named as new managing director of APM Terminals Japan
10:56 Turnover of DeloPorts terminals grew by 36% in 2020
10:32 MABUX: Bunker market this morning, Jan 15, 2021
10:04 Jinling hands over Grimaldi Group’s second GG5G Class hybrid ro-ro
09:57 Biggest Dutch project for CO2 reduction, Porthos, is on schedule
09:55 Bunker prices show no significant changes at the Port of Saint-Petersburg, Russia (graph)
09:34 Crude oil prices continue decreasing in expectation of COVID-19 related lockdowns to affect the demand
09:19 Baltic Dry Index as of January 14

2021 January 14

18:25 Throughput of Russian seaports in 2020 fell by 2.3% Y-o-Y
18:03 Torvald Klaveness First Steamship joins Baumarine by MaruKlav
17:48 Exports of Transneft oil via seaports fell by 21.3%
17:31 Wärtsilä SmartMove Suite sets sail with the American Steamship Company
16:47 Marine Administration of the Russian Federation extends validity of seafarers’ documents
16:23 CMA CGM announces Empty Equipment Imbalance Surcharge for cargo from North Europe, United Kingdom, Baltic States, Scandinavia & Russia to Nigeria
16:18 Bunker Outlook, Jan 14, 2020
16:03 Contecon Manzanillo caps off 2020 with 1M TEU milestone
15:55 Enhanced requirements for shore-based personnel boarding vessels in the Port of Singapore
15:41 Dredging fleet of Rosmorport’s Astrakhan branch expanded with dredging convoy
15:23 Equinor selected for largest-ever US offshore wind award
15:03 Konecranes makes first UK installation of S-series crane
14:44 Bunker prices increased in the Far East ports of Russia (graph)
14:22 Abu Dhabi Ports to provide container transportation services between Musaffah-based facility and Khalifa Port
14:03 North Sea Port feels reports 63.5 million tons of cargo transhipment from maritime shipping in 2020
13:40 Port of Riga saw cargo structure changes in 2020
13:23 Kalmar’s straddle carrier technology to enhance operational capabilities at Iles de la Réunion
13:21 Port Houston annual container volumes near record in December 2020
12:48 Throughput of Sovetskaya Gavan port surged by 83% in 2020
12:04 Portuguese and Greek Prime Ministers visit European Maritime Safety Agency
11:59 Port of Oakland loaded imports up 11 percent in Dec. 2020
10:47 Year 2020 ended with 6.6 million tons of various cargo handled by Port of Liepaya
10:20 MABUX: Bunker market this morning, Jan 14, 2021
10:19 PGNiG received its fourth LNG delivery in Klaipėda
10:12 Neptune Energy awards $6.5M contracts for Cygnus gas facility
09:53 Hydrogen Council reaches 100+ members
09:50 UAntwerp and Port of Antwerp testing innovative technology for autonomous shipping
09:28 Crude oil prices decrease in response to dollar rise
09:13 Baltic Dry Index as of January 13

2021 January 13

18:01 Holland Shipyards Group awarded with contract to build three additional vessels for Schlepp- und Fährgesellschaft Kiel
17:49 Port of Antwerp appoints International Representative for Russia
17:15 Jinling delivers last DFDS mega ro-ro