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  • Peak oil demand may occure between 2030 and 2040 - Gibson
  • 2022 July 25 15:48

    Peak oil demand may occure between 2030 and 2040 - Gibson

    Peak oil demand is likely to occur between 2030 and 2040, however some regions such as Europe could peak earlier than developing economies in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, according to Gibson Shipbrokers weekly report. Therefore, slower longer term oil demand growth rates and an eventual peak in demand suggests tanker owners will need to engage in lower fleet replenishment and this investment will likely concentrate on replacing older and less economical tonnage as well as ensuring regulatory compliance, the analytics say. Over the medium term, aside from recession risk, the oil trade is expected to continue growing before a longer-term peak and then decline once this eventually materialises.

    After COVID-19 destruction demand has continued to expand despite oil prices trading firmly in the $100/bbl.

    "This calls into question when exactly peak oil demand could occur and what this might in practice look like as the demand outlook varies by region, particularly in terms of decarbonisation policies. Most current estimates place peak demand occurring between 2030 and 2040, although it is worth noting the subsequent decline in demand is unlikely to be cliff edge and oil is likely to play a role in the global economy for decades to come past 2040", - according to Gibson's report.

    In their latest monthly report, the IEA has revised down its demand growth estimates for 2022 and 2023. It now forecasts demand at approximately 99.2 mbd and 101.32 mbd respectively versus 99.43 mbd and 101.6 mbd in their June forecast.

    Demand has been improving compared to 2020 levels. Easing mobility restrictions are increasing seasonal demand for jet and road transport fuel, particularly in emerging markets, which in turn has resulted in higher refinery runs as refiners look to capture higher margins. This has led to higher crude demand; and comes as the global crude trade continues to shift and readjust to the new trade reality following sanctions on Russian oil. Other areas of continued oil demand include power generation where European and Middle Eastern utility companies are increasingly viewing oil as a cheaper alternative to natural gas and LNG in electricity generation. The petrochemical sector also represents a key source of expected future oil demand, in particular naphtha demand has been strong in recent years.

    When it comes to putting an expected date on peak oil demand, a key factor is decarbonisation policy, analytics report. Europe, the UK, US, and China are all scheduled to phase out the sale of new gasoline and diesel vehicles by 2040; with sales expected to decline dramatically over the course of the 2020s and 2030s in line with broader targets of net zero by 2050.

2022 December 4

15:12 Global energy major joins The Castor Initiative - LR
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10:02 Hupac announces new rail connection Antwerp Combinant and Duisburg

2022 December 3

15:49 Schedule reliability continues on its upwards trend - Sea-Intelligence
13:07 Concordia Maritime announces delivery of sold vessel and continued review of its fleet
11:18 Trinidad and Tobago targets 4 Mtpa green hydrogen by 2065
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2022 December 2

18:25 Queues to pass through Bosporus Strait worse than past year - Lloyd's List Intelligence
18:07 e1 Marine, NAVTEK partner to develop hydrogen-powered car carrier vessel - H2 View
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17:00 Nuclear-powered icebreaker Ural of Project 22220 leaves Murmansk for the first operational voyage
16:52 The ports in Szczecin and Swinoujscie cargo transshipments up by 9.4 percent in Jan-Nov 2022
16:24 GTT receives two orders from Samsung Heavy Industries for the tank design of seven new LNG сarriers
15:53 15 empty containers at Keppel Terminal in the port of Singapore fall into the water due to squall 
15:46 Krasnoye Sormovo may be contracted for building river/sea class ships for Belarussian companies
15:29 Hyundai Heavy Industries Group to present 'ocean transformation' plans at CES 2023
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14:58 Deal to resume Russian ammonia exports via Ukraine close – Reuters
14:24 Freeport LNG delays restart target to end of year amid US regulatory hurdles - S&P Global
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12:56 Aker BP’s Board approves field development projects
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11:52 Indian port operator orders three Generation 6 Konecranes Gottwald Mobile Harbor Cranes to electrify bulk handling
11:35 LR authorised to carry out certification activities for non-SOLAS ships in Italy
11:26 A batch of reefer containers delivered to Vladivostok Sea Fishing Port
11:03 Singapore and Netherlands accept IMO Convention amendments
10:58 Accelleron launches new all-inclusive service agreement for auxiliary engine turbochargers
10:35 Sempra announces sale and purchase agreement with INEOS for Port Arthur LNG Phase 1
09:44 Winter-spring navigation season begins on the Northern Sea Route
09:40 NYK concludes investment and strategic partnership agreements with Pertamina
09:15 Rosmorport receives new certificate of conformity of Novorossiysk VTS

2022 December 1

18:07 Plans for increased gas extraction from Oseberg approved
17:56 Court confiscates FESCO shares owned by Ziyavudin Magomedov
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13:36 ESL Shipping sells agency business in Sweden to GAC
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10:34 Singapore accepts amendments to the International Maritime Organization Convention
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2022 November 30

18:11 duisport and VITRONIC present solution for automatic detection of containers
17:54 New report identifies pathway for £75bn for UK shipping's energy transition
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