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  • MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 11, 2023
  • 2023 March 16 15:27

    MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 11, 2023

    The Weekly Outlook was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)

    Over the Week 11, MABUX global bunker indices reverted to a firm downtrend. The 380 HSFO index fell by 17.46 USD: from 489.07 USD/MT last week to 471.61 USD/MT. The VLSFO index decreased by 26.64 USD (641.41 USD/MT versus 668.05 USD/MT last week). The MGO index also lost 30.95 USD (from 946.20 USD/MT last week to 915.25 USD/MT), coming close to 900 USD mark. At the time of writing, the market was still in a downtrend.

    The Global Scrubber Spread (SS) - the price differential between 380 HSFO and VLSFO - showed a firm decline in a Week 11 - minus $9.16 ($169.80 vs. $178.89 last week). At the same time, the weekly average also decreased by $8.90. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread fell by $17.00 to $145.00 (vs. $162.00 last week), while the weekly average lost $8.67. In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO price difference also continued to decrease: minus $ 8, dropping to $ 139 (the weekly average weekly lost $ 2.50). We expect SS Spread to continue downtrend next week. More information is available in the "Differentials" section of www.mabux.com.

    As per the International Energy Agency (IEA), natural gas demand in the European Union fell in 2022 by 55 bcm, or 13%, its steepest drop in history. The IEA said that the milder winter temperatures ‘certainly played a role’, as it noted that Heating Degree Days (a measure of how much energy is required to heat a building due to colder weather) across the European Union (EU) were 12% lower on average in 2022 than in 2021. ‘Production curtailment’ in ‘energy-intensive industries’ played a major part in the natural gas demand drop, as ‘several plants reduced production, and in some cases imported finished products from outside the EU instead of manufacturing them domestically at higher cost'. Other significant factors including ‘fuel switching’ and ‘behavioural changes’ (i.e. households turning the thermostat down and using less hot water) in response to the higher natural gas prices. In terms of fuel switching, the IEA estimated that ‘around 7 bcm of gas-to-oil switching occurred in the industrial sector’.

    Despite the general downward trend in natural gas indices, the price of LNG as a bunker fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) increased and reached 1161 USD/MT on March 13 (plus 99 USD compared to the previous week). The price difference between LNG and conventional fuel also widened on March 13 to 272 USD: MGO LS at the port of Sines was quoted at 989 USD/MT that day. However, we do not expect LNG prices to continue their upward trend in the near term. More information is available in the LNG Bunkering section of www.mabux.com.

    Over the Week 11, the MDI index (correlation of MABUX market bunker prices (MBP Index) vs MABUX digital bunker benchmark (DBP Index)) registered undervaluation of 380 HSFO fuel in all four selected ports. The weekly average showed a reduction at all ports. The most significant was MDI decline at Rotterdam: minus 76 points at once reaching minus $31 mark. In Singapore, Fujairah and Houston, MDI showed minus $74, minus $98 and minus $53, respectively.

    In the VLSFO segment, according to MDI, the three selected ports - Rotterdam, Singapore and Fujairah - remain undervalued by minus $5, minus $15 and minus $21, respectively. The underestimation weekly average moderately narrowed. Houston remained the only overvalued port in this fuel segment with a plus $27, the overpricing level slightly increased.

    There are still three ports in the MGO LS segment: Rotterdam, Singapore and Houston. The weekly average underpricing premium rose moderately in Rotterdam and Singapore to $94 and $101 respectively but decreased in Houston to $54. Fujairah remained the only overvalued port - plus $155. In general, the MDI changes in this fuel segment were insignificant.

    There are three underpriced ports in the MGO LS segment: Rotterdam, Singapore and Houston. Average weekly undercharge ratio slightly declined at Rotterdam and Houston to $58 and $48 respectively but rose to $104 in Singapore. Fujairah remains the only overvalued port - plus $143. In general, there is gradual narrowing of undervaluation margins registered in all fuel segments.

    More information on the correlation between market prices and MABUX digital benchmark is available in the “Digital Bunker Prices” section at mabux.com.

    The 3,794,300 metric tonnes (mt) of marine fuel sales in the Port of Singapore last month was 8.3% up on the 3,504,000 mt recorded in February 2022. However, last month’s total marked a 13.3% decrease on the 4,376,900 mt registered in January, Sales of very low sulphur fuel oil 380 cSt stood at 1,938,500 mt for the month – 11.8% up on the 1,733,500 mt recorded in February 2022 but 15.7% down on January’s total. For a ninth successive month, sales of high sulphur fuel oil 380 cSt (1,105,600 mt) surpassed the 1 million tonne mark. The 297,000 mt of low sulphur marine gasoil sales represented a 5.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase but a 5.3% decrease on the 313,700 mt recorded in January. Over the first two months of the year a total of 8,171,200 mt of marine fuel was sold in Singapore compared to 7,533,000 during the same period in 2022.

    Global bunker market retreated to downtrend following crude oil as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and problems with Credit Suisse sparked fears of a fresh financial crisis that could reduce future oil and fuel demand. We expect bunker indices to keep falling next week.

    By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX

2023 March 24

18:28 IAA PortNews’ summary of past week news
18:05 Damen Maaskant offers future-proof solution for tropical shrimp fishermen
17:41 Stolthaven Terminals joins the Ammonia Energy Association
17:16 Silversea Cruises and MEYER WERFT celebrate the keel laying of Silver Ray
17:07 Sea terminal to be built in Novorossiysk under concession scheme
16:55 Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion demonstration project in Okinawa selected by Japan's Ministry of the Environment
16:34 Channel Ports and DFDS join forces to decarbonise cross-Channel transport
16:34 New ferry Stanislav Agapov to start operation in Ust-Kamchatsk in spring 2024
16:13 Annual capacity of ports Olya and Makhachkala to be increased by 5.6 million tonnes
15:49 WinGD to deliver methanol engines for COSCO SHIPPING Lines container vessels
15:25 Ministry of Energy reports 20-pct decrease of coal industry’s negative impact on water bodies over recent 5 years
15:03 Liberty Lines’ hybrid ferry order at Astilleros Armon expands to twelve
14:51 Nakhodka shipyard estimates readiness of crab catcher Kapitan Khazan of Project CCa5712LS at 86%
14:34 New hybrid ferry 'P&O Pioneer' docks at DP World Limassol for bunkering
14:13 China's Xinxing to invest $2 bln in Suez Canal Economic Zone
13:42 Port of Antwerp-Bruges and Port of Amsterdam join forces with Routescanner
13:08 Maersk signs MOU with Shanghai International Port Group on green methanol bunkering
13:02 Livestock Express renews and upgrades its agreement with Wartsila to improve vessel reliability
12:58 Marine Engineering Center SPb expects construction of Volga-Don Extra Max class ships to begin in 2023
12:37 Austal Philippines delivers largest ever, high-speed catamaran constructed by Austal to Molslinjen
12:13 Lineas and DFDS join forces to transport containers and trailers from Ghent in North Sea Port by rail
11:12 Elnusa signs Mou with Khan for offshore platform decommissioning project
10:56 Construction of dry port in Rostov Region is under consideration
10:41 TECO 2030 signs an MOU with an undisclosed party for up to 50MW of hydrogen engines
10:25 Damen announces technical acceptance of Damen CSD650 and MuC1506
10:20 Creating transport and logistics corridors is an important element in RF Government’s effort to open up our economy – Mikhail Mishustin
09:52 A broad spectrum of support mechanisms expanded and revived to finance import substitution — RF Prime Minister
09:29 Rosmorrechflot head set a task to reduce the construction time of Pionersky terminal

2023 March 23

18:18 Port of Aberdeen hosts more than 100 vessels working on offshore wind projects in 2023
17:51 China surged its coal imports in January-February 2023
17:45 Peel Ports acquires HES Humber Bulk Terminal
17:23 US-led alliance launches drone patrols to monitor Gulf energy shipping lanes - S&P Global Commodity Insights
17:14 China’s crude oil imports in January-February 2023 fell by 1.3% YoY
17:10 CMA CGM commences the only direct Japan-U.S. East Coast Service
16:48 Admiralteiskie Verfi shipyard held the first start of the main engine on Mekhanik Sizov trawler of Project СТ-192
16:47 IMO Secretary-General updated on Black Sea Grain initiative
16:22 BV-classed hybrid ferries with battery and solar power to be deployed in Hong Kong
16:16 Finland lifts arrest of Russian fertilizers in the port of Kotka
16:03 Port of Cork accelerates digitalisation with new AI-powered port system
15:25 “K” Line to install automated kite system on the coal carrier Corona Citrus
14:22 Return of railway ferry Baltiysk to Ust-Luga-Baltiysk line postponed to April 2023
14:03 Samskip starts a new innovative project that will reduce CO2 emissions for its vessels
13:27 European Council and the European Parliament announces new agreement to decarbonise the maritime sector
12:50 Global decrease of investments in oil and gas sector to result in shortage of facilities in 3-5 years
12:43 Ports of Stockholm explores safety aspects of autonomous shipping in innovative research project
12:29 Six сompanies team up to build, operate Japan's 1st methanol-fueled coastal tanker
11:42 Port of Oakland joins clean energy trade mission
10:55 Russian ship carrying a cargo of fertilizers detained in the Finnish port of Kotka
10:41 Hamburger Hafen und Logistik revenue up by 7.7 percent to € 1,578.4 million in 2022
10:32 Russian Railways increased volume of Pacific seafood shipments from Primorye by 6% in January-February 2023
10:25 Hyundai Heavy achieves world's first 200 million BHP milestone
09:57 Agency for Strategic Initiatives to support production of high-speed hydrofoils
09:20 Nevsky Shipyard lays down third serial tanker of Project 23130 for RF Defence Ministry

2023 March 22

19:19 MSCC Bronka (Saint-Petersburg) sold to Moscow company NKK-Logistik
17:30 Direct service from China to Saint-Petersburg launched by Transit
17:06 JERA and Virya Energy reach an agreement for the acquisition of Parkwind by JERA
16:41 Alfa Laval completes acquisition of innovative friction reduction technology
16:24 State Duma passed in its first reading Northern Delivery Bill
16:08 OGCI, Stena Bulk, GCMD project gets go-ahead to use carbon capture on oil tanker pilot to decarbonize shipping
15:46 Grimaldi signs the purchase agreement for the acquisition of a majority stake in the Igoumenitsa Port Authority