Dutch exporters are much less pessimistic about 2009 than the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB). While the CPB is thinking in terms of a 12% fall in exports, the exporters believe, on balance, that zero growth is possible. That is evident from 'Trends in export', a joint opinion poll held by exporters’ association Fenedex and credit insurer Atradius.
The poll, in which 3800 companies participated, was published this year for the eleventh consecutive time and, according to Fenedex, usually makes reliable predictions about actual trends. Dutch exporters are counting on a recovery in exports, which fell massively in the early months, in the course of the year, even almost making up for lost ground.
Sectors and countries
The results differ per sector and region. The companies in the metal sector and the machinery sector foresee a decline with 7 to 8%, those in the food sector a growth with 4%. There are regional differences too. The exporters are sombre about the exports to the UK, Spain and Italy and outside Europe about the prospects in the USA. Chances are seen in Romania, Bulgaria, Poland and Lithuania. The latter is remarkable considering the difficult times the country is going through. Outside Europe, Vietnam is mentioned as a growth market for Dutch exports.
Re-exports
An important factor in the sharp decline in exports is the collapse of re-exports, whereby goods enter the Netherlands and are then shipped on to other countries following some minor processing. This involves products from Asia, for instance, but also coal, oil, minerals and other raw materials. According to the exporters, these re-exports could also recover in the course of the year.