DNV believes that 434 firm cancellations have taken place so far out of the 10,400-plus orderbook, with around 180 in South Korea and 160 in China. But these figures do not reflect the true picture: there are nearly 400 container vessels laid up or idle whilst slow steaming is thought to have taken another 10% of capacity out of the market.
The present orderbook could well result in a tonnage surplus amounting to 5,000-8,000 ships, DNV believes. So-called "warm lay-up" or idling anchorages in Singapore are already full and space is limited at other locations including Hong Kong and Fujairah. DNV analysts are contemplating a crisis that could last 3-5 years but stress that the outlook is very uncertain.